Sudan

After Mohamed Mattar, a Sudanese engineering student, was killed protecting two people during the massacre of protesters in Khartoum on June 3rd, his blue profile picture became the symbol for the online #BlueforSudan movement. Worldwide, people changed their social media profile pictures to that shade of blue to honor him and the other victims of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and to show solidarity with the civilians continuing to protest the Sudanese government.

Transitional Military Council (TMC) cut internet access after the June 3 massacre to stifle the information released about its crimes. As of Tuesday, July 9, a court-ordered restoration of landline phone connections has been implemented, technically ending the blackout, but leaving many still disconnected. Mobile connections have not yet been restored. This partial restoration of internet access in Sudan comes as the result of a power-sharing agreement between the TMC and civilian protest leaders. This agreement sets out a plan for a military leader for the first 21 months, followed by a civilian leader for the next 18 months and then a democratically-elected president after the interim period. 

It is likely that people such as the head of the RSF and deputy head of the TMC Mohamed Hamdan “Hemeti” Dagalo, who is accused of human rights atrocities in the Darfur Genocide, will maintain significant power. Furthermore, the inquiry into the June 3 massacre will not hold the military accountable. Many women and members of marginalized groups fear that they will be excluded from power, especially in regions recovering from immense violence such as Darfur. It seems best to look at this new agreement with optimistic cautiousness; it may turn out well for the people of Sudan but it may, like many agreements of the past, fall through. Awareness is still of the utmost importance. 

South Sudan

Eight years after South Sudan declared independence from Sudan, the country is still rife with conflict. President Salva Kiir apologized for conflict and government mismanagement contributing to the ongoing economic crisis in his eight-year Independence Day speech. Still, a recent UN report documents increased conflict in Central Equatoria in South Sudan since Kiir and rebel leader Riek Machar signed a peace agreement last year. Although violence has decreased elsewhere in the country, hundreds have been killed or abducted in Central Equatoria and many women and girls have been subjected to rape and sexual violence. Here, ongoing territorial contests between government forces, rebel groups who did not sign the peace agreement, and forces allied with Machar lead to deliberate and accidental civilian deaths. This surge in attacks has forced over 56,000 people to flee their homes, becoming internally displaced within South Sudan, and another 20,000 to escape to Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 

Great Lakes of Africa

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Over the past month, the total number of reported Ebola cases rose to 2,418, with 1,630 reported deaths, according to the latest situation report from the World Health Organization. No new cases have been reported in the town from which the outbreak originated, but the virus continues to spread to new towns throughout the North Kivu and Ituri provinces. One case was recently reported near the border with South Sudan; since last month, there have been no cases reported in Uganda. On July 15, a case was confirmed in Goma by the Rwandan border, but the responsiveness indicates that the chances of its spread in this region are low. However, the response capacity in the North Kivu and Ituri provinces is still hindered by the widespread distrust of public health and government officials amongst a population so long afflicted by violence. Rumors that the Ebola virus was brought into the region to target the historically victimized population are widespread and largely believed.  

In recent months, violence has increased. Displacement due to revived conflict, totalling at about 300,000 displaced persons since June, exacerbates the difficulty of tracking patients at risk of Ebola. In addition to extreme public health concerns, the resurgence of violence in the Ituri province prompted President Felix Tshisekedi to describe the longstanding conflict between Lendu farmers and Hema herders as “attempted genocide.” In early July, he launched an offensive backed by UN peacekeeping mission MONUSCO, Uganda, and Rwanda in an attempt to end the communal violence. According to Al Jazeera, Congolese refugees arriving in Uganda report extreme brutality; local officials say that at least 161 people were killed in one attack, all of whose bodies were found in a single mass grave. It is an incredibly complex region, with current violence further destabilized by neighboring conflicts such as the Rwandan genocide of the mid-90s, the presence of numerous local militias and foreign armed groups, and an abundance of lucrative resources like gold and cobalt.

While President Tshisekedi spoke out about genocidal conflict plaguing the Ituri province, police fired on protestors in the capital of Kinshasa as well as the city of Goma according to Human Rights Watch. Protestors are calling on Congolese authorities to investigate excessive use of force against the peaceful protestors of the Lamuka coalition, which backed Martin Fayulu during the recent presidential elections. On June 30, they gathered to protest widespread corruption and election fraud, but were met with teargas, live ammunition, and beatings. 

On July 8, General Bosco Ntaganda, also known as “The Terminator,” was convicted by the International Criminal Court of 18 counts of crimes against humanity and war crimes. First indicted in 2006 for his role in atrocities between 2002-2003, he now faces a maximum life sentence. 

Middle East

Yemen

Since 2014, the civil war in Yemen has killed more than 16,000 civilians and left more than 12 million people on the verge of starvation. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) partnered with Yemen Data Project and determined that there have been more than 91,600 conflict-related fatalities in Yemen since 2015. Around 67% of all reported civilian fatalities have been caused by Saudi-led coalition airstrikes. They also found 2018 to be the deadliest and most violent year on record. A UN Security Council report covering the period from April 1, 2013 to December 31, 2018 determines that children are paying the highest price for the war. During that period, there have been 11,779 violations against children in Yemen. Maiming and killing were the two main violations, primarily caused by airstrikes and ground fighting. Additionally, underreported instances include sexual violence, recruitment and use of children in war and attack on schools and hospitals. 

Five years into the war, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a key member of the Saudi-led coalition, has decided to withdraw most of its forces from Yemen. However, they plan on leaving behind Emirati trained forces and maintaining its Al-Mukalla base for counterterrorism operations. The Houthis have also led missile and drone attacks on Saudi cities and airports since June 2019. One of the most recent drone attacks struck Abha airport on July 2 and nine civilians were injured. These attacks escalate tensions as the UN and the international community attempt to negotiate peace in Yemen. Diplomats from the UAE claimed that the UAE can always send troops back to Yemen, where Abu Dhabi has built strong local allies with tens of thousands of fighters.

Syria

The northwestern province of Idlib continues to be the focus of an ongoing Russian-led bombing campaign which began in April. 544 civilians, including 130 children, have been killed and over 2,000 have been injured as a result of strikes. These attacks have included the use of cluster munitions and incendiary weapons targeting largely civilian areas. The Russian government attempted to justify ongoing attacks by arguing that they are responses to al-Qaida action and a failed ceasefire deal between Turkey and Russia last year. 

Over 300,000 people have been pushed from their homes since the attacks began in April, moving closer to the Turkish border. As the campaign continues, reports have determined that three million civilian lives are at risk, including at least one million children. 

In Lebanon, which hosts the most refugees per capita in the world including 1.5 million Syrians, refugees are blamed for the country’s economic crisis and pressured to leave. Syrian refugees in the region of Arsal were given until July 1st to demolish shelters that were made of any material deemed more permanent than timber and plastic sheeting. Simultaneously, refugees have been targeted with an increase in arrests and deportations, confiscation and destruction of property, curfews, and limits to education and employment access. 

Southeast Asia

Burma

Many of the 100,000 ethnic Kachins living in 140 internally displaced persons (IDPs) camps continue to suffer from the effects of war since the ceasefire broke between the KIA and Burmese military eight years ago. As the Burmese government blocks IDPs from receiving aid in food, healthcare, shelter, and sanitation, prayers were said in the mountains of Kachin state on June 14. Moreover, an ethnic Kachin woman was found brutally murdered in an IDP camp on July 4. 

Burmese authorities also gave orders for the shut down of the internet in nine townships located in Rakhine and Chin states on June 20, which allowed for war crimes to go unnoticed as the Burmese military approached fighting with the local Arakan Army. In addition to these crimes, reports have found that cybercrimes, including online fraud and online sexual violence, have been increasingly on the rise since 2015. The U.S. expressed their disapproval of the situation on June 29 by joining calls for Burma to end the internet shutdown. On July 3, UN investigator Yang Hee Lee reported that new war crimes have appeared amidst the internet blackout, although the Burmese military constantly deny such allegations.

In response to atrocities against the Rohingya, International Criminal Court Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda filed a request with judges on July 4 to open up an investigation of crimes against humanity committed by the Burmese government against the ethnic group. On July 6, hundreds took to the streets in marches supporting the “Justice for Victoria” movement, a response to a toddler rape case that has become a campaign against sexual violence. In regards to Burma’s 2020 elections, speculators like Ma Htoot May believe that the NLD’s actions in the past year alone and inaction of Aung San Suu Kyi have lessened the party’s appeal to the public and that ethnic parties will thus have a higher chance of winning. On the morning of July 10, Burmese nationals, including the brother of the Arakan Army Chief General, were arrested in Singapore for their ties to the Arakan Army, in which they organized Burmese individuals living within the country to financially support the rebel armed group. Singapore plans to deport them.

Emerging Crises

Venezuela

Last week, talks began in Barbados between the Venezuelan opposition and the government of President Maduro. Mediated by Norway, both sides returned on Thursday with no announcement of a deal. During this break, two members of Juan Guaido’s security detail were detained for attempting to sell rifles during Guaido’s failed April 30 attempt at removing Maduro from power. Though talks were confirmed to continue into this week with an announcement from the opposition on Sunday, the arrests are expected to exacerbate tensions. The government will bring the weapons accusation against the opposition during the coming round of negotiation, while Guaido remains steadfast that the arrests are based on false evidence as a part of intimidation efforts. There is fear that talks will continue to stall as the Western Hemisphere’s worst humanitarian crisis in recent memory continues to worsen. 

As the current government struggles to handle its worsening political and economic crisis, the United Nations recently released a report documenting 18 months of extrajudicial killings perpetrated by the Venezuelan special forces. Though the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry denounces the reports, the investigators give abundant evidence of the witness-described “death squads” killing thousands for resisting authority, cover-up of the deaths, and an overall system of suppression. United Nations human rights officials fear that the special forces and other armed groups are used by the government to control their population by fostering widespread fear. Briefly following the UN report, an international legal watchdog organization, the International Commission of Jurists, said that the government has seized the legislative and judicial branches of the Venezuelan government, leading to the breakdown of the rule of law. 

Mali

Violence in Mali has been steadily escalating with clashes between the Fulani and Dogon ethnic groups, where the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali recorded 488 Fulani deaths and 63 Fulani-caused deaths since the beginning of 2018. The ethnic violence between the Fulani and Dogon groups stems from long-fought battles over land and resources after Amadeus Koufa, a Malian preacher, started recurring Fulanis for an armed group in 2015. 

On June 19, 2019, an estimated 38 people were killed after Fulani communities attacked Dogon villages in the Mopti region. Dogon militiamen retaliated on July 1, when an attack on a village of Fulani herders left 23 dead and 300 missing. 

Civilians began to respond to the escalation in violence when, in late June, an estimated 5,000 organizers gathered in Mali’s capital to demand an end to the recent attacks. The events in Mali have also gained international attention due to the wide speculation that the growing population of Islamic extremists in the area has inflamed tensions after the recent killing of 10 peacekeepers in Mali. On July 10, the UN Secretary-General urged the international community to support West Africa’s fight against armed groups, stating that the violence started in Mali and has spread to Burkina Faso and Niger.

–

Grace Harris is an incoming junior at Tampa Preparatory School in Florida, where she serves as the president of her STAND chapter. She also serves on STAND national’s Sudan and Yemen Action Committees, and will be STAND’s State Advocacy Lead for Florida in the 2019-2020 academic year. Grace contributed the Sudan and South Sudan portions of this update.

Megan Smith is a rising senior at the University of Southern California, where she will be working to reestablish a STAND chapter, and is an incoming member of STAND’s Managing Committee co-leading education and outreach. Previously, she has served on the Policy Task Force of STAND France during her junior year and as California State Advocacy Lead during her sophomore year. Outside of STAND, she interned at the nonprofits DigDeep (Los Angeles) and HAMAP-Humanitaire (Paris) and currently works at Dexis Consulting Group (DC). Megan contributed the DRC and Venezuela portions of this update.

Aisha Saleem is a rising sophomore at Barnard College, and a member of STAND’s Managing Committee. Previously, Aisha was a task force member where she contributed to monthly blogs and op-eds about genocide-related issues around the world. She is also interested in current issues in education and enjoys doing neuroscience research. Aisha contributed the Yemen portion of this update.

Abby Edwards is a junior in the Dual BA program between Columbia University and Sciences Po Paris and serves on the STAND USA Managing Committee. Prior to this, Abby served on the Managing Committee of STAND France and worked as an intern for the Buchenwald Memorial, the Journal of European and American Intelligence Studies, and conducted research for the US Department of State – Office of the Historian. This summer, Abby will be conducting research on post-conflict education in Cambodia as a Junior Research Fellow with the Center for Khmer Studies. Abby contributed the Syria portion of this update.

Jan Jan Maran is a rising junior at George Mason University, and is Co-lead of the Burma Action Committee. As member of STAND’s Managing Committee, she is also involved in STAND’s Congo, Sudan, Yemen, and Indegeneous Peoples Committees. She is very passionate about genocide-related issues and enjoys working with organizations like STAND in order speak out against such atrocities. Jan Jan contributed the Burma portion of this update.

Caroline Mendoza is a STAND Managing Committee member and an incoming senior at Cerritos High School in California. She served as STAND’s 2018-2019 West Region Field Organizer, and on STAND’s Burma and Yemen Action Committees. In her free time, Caroline participates in Model United Nations, marching band, and Girl Scouts, and pursues Holocaust and genocide education. Caroline contributed the Mali portion of this update.

Sudan

In the two months since the fall of Omar al-Bashir, demands for civilian rule have been brutally denied by the military generals ruling Sudan. After weeks of protests, a military crackdown in early June has left at least 118 killed and 784 wounded by security forces. Eyewitnesses have reported militiamen hurling corpses into the Nile, some with cement bricks tied to their limbs to keep the bodies from floating. Militiamen have used tear gas, whips, and sticks to beat men and women alike, and have burned tents at the sit-in site, many with people still inside. Systematic rapes of both protesters and doctors have also been reported.

In response to the crackdown, demonstrators have decried the current ruling elites as holdovers from al-Bashir’s regime, initiating a civil disobedience campaign on June 9. Mass strikes have shut down businesses and public entities across Khartoum, and the government has held essential employees at gunpoint to force them to work. The Sudanese Professional Association, one of the groups that led the protest movement which forced al-Bashir out of power, has also urged international financial institutions to boycott the military government. The U.N. called for a monitoring team to be deployed to Sudan and the U.S. State Department condemned the crackdown, echoing demands for a transition to a civilian government. The African Union has suspended Sudan’s membership until a civilian government is put in place. For STAND’s latest on the Sudan crisis and its connections to U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, see our recent blog post here.

South Sudan

On Friday, May 3, the conflicting parties led by South Sudan President Salva Kiir and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in Opposition (SPLM-IO) leader Riek Machar met and agreed to delay the formation of a united, power-sharing government for six months. While Machar, who fled in 2016 following a previous peace deal collapse, wanted a six-month delay to resolve security issues that have prevented his return to Juba, Kiir wanted to focus on forming the joint administration. A week later, Kiir declared that the formation of this unified government should be delayed by at least a year, stating that so far his administration has been unable to fully disarm and train all of the various forces formerly fighting in South Sudan and citing difficulties due to the upcoming rainy season.

This comes a month after South Sudan’s government hired lobbyists from Gainful Solutions, a California-based lobbyist organization, to persuade the U.S. government to reverse current sanctions on South Sudan and to delay and block establishment of a hybrid court that would try those accused of war crimes in South Sudan. While complaining about the costs of peace agreement implementation, it paid $3.7 million to the firm.

Citing corruption, human rights abuses, and fears that a united government will never be formed, youth activist groups called for demonstrations on May 15 to protest the Kiir administration, concerned that the delay would simply punt the same problems down the line. In response, South Sudanese troops were sent to prevent these protests, fearing that they could result in Kiir’s ouster.

Great Lakes of Africa

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

In the second worst ebola epidemic on record, DRC’s outbreak has surpassed 2,000 reported cases, over half of which have resulted in deaths, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). In the past two months alone, the reported number cases doubled. The outbreak shows little sign of containment. On June 11, the first cross-border case was reported in Uganda. The infected five-year-old boy died after he and his family entered Uganda on June 9. Since the announcement, three more cases have been confirmed in Uganda. The cross-border spread could incite a renewed push for declaration of the ebola outbreak as a global emergency.

The rapid rise in ebola cases coincides with dramatic intensification of violence in the region. Intermittent violence driven by politics, money, and regional insecurity have afflicted DRC’s North Kivu and Ituri provinces, the center of the ebola outbreak, for over two decades. Historically, civilians have served as targets for both state and non-state actors, leaving communities with a strong distrust for authorities. Thus, rumors claiming ebola as a hoax, or caused by the government and health workers, are easily accepted. This mistrust has made emergency response efforts ineffective.

Additionally, attacks on treatment centers have become more frequent, leading organizations like Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) to pull out. Attacks have been blamed by the government on local militias who often work on behalf of political sponsors and foreign bidders. In a June 3 statement, ISIS claimed responsibility for sponsoring a deadly attack in Beni—and not for the first time. Other attacks are tied to political tensions from the presidential elections. Leaflets left by attackers at treatment centers justify attacks with the exclusion of 1.2 million voters due to stated concerns of the Ebola outbreak.  

On May 20, President Tshisekedi announced Sylvestre Ilunga Ilukamba, an ally of former president Kabila, as prime minister. The position holds a substantial amount of power, confirming that Kabila has not left the political scene (nor has he left the presidential villa). Despite evidence of fraudulent elections and growing disapproval of the Tshisekedi-Kabila alliance, there is still hope for political change. Since taking office, Tshisekedi has pardoned over 700 political prisoners, opposition leader Moise Katumbi has returned from exile, and the late opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi was finally buried on May 30, two years after his death.

Middle East

Yemen

The conflict in Yemen has intensified in recent weeks with an increase in Houthi actions against the Saudi coalition. In response to Saudi escalation of air raids on the Houthi in Hajjah, a northern Yemeni province, Houthi forces have begun to target the kingdom increasingly with drone and missile attacks. There has also been an upswing in cholera cases in the third major outbreak since 2015. The spread of the disease has been exacerbated due to the war: many Yemenis are forced to drink dirty water, a major cause of cholera, as water resources have become scarce. Due to restrictions on imports over the past few years, it has become increasingly difficult for patients and medical professionals to have access to life-saving medicines which would otherwise be inexpensive and easy to access.

Following the U.S. Senate’s failed attempt to override Trump’s veto of the Yemen War Powers Resolution, a measure to end U.S. military support for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, on May 24, President Trump declared a national security emergency in order to waive Congressional review of $8.1 billion in arms sales to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan. Pompeo cited tensions with Iran as the reason for the declaration. He stated that a delay in the sale could increase the risk of losing U.S. allies at a time of instability caused by Iran. In response, a bipartisan group of senators plan to introduce 22 separate resolutions of disapproval: one for each of the 22 weapons sales. This effort is intended to reassert Congress’ role of approving arms deals to foreign governments. In a related effort, Senators Chris Murphy and Todd Young have announced that they will introduce a bill to force a vote on the U.S.-Saudi relationship.  Their bill will invoke the Foreign Assistance Act, requesting a report of Saudi human rights practices within a 30-day window. After receipt of the report, Congress can force a vote on U.S. security assistance to Saudi Arabia.

Syria

The last significant rebel stronghold in Syria, the northwestern province of Idlib has become the focus of a bombing campaign led by Russian and Syrian forces. The campaign has targeted over 25 health facilities and 35 schools. In the month of May alone, nearly 270,000 people were displaced and over 300 killed as a result of the bombardment.

In the southwestern city of Dara’a, more than 380 civilians have been arrested and 11 killed since the city fell to the Syrian army in July 2018. Despite the government’s promise to implement “reconciliation” agreements, the city has been a place of targeted killings, enforced disappearances, and arbitrary arrests. Hundreds remain detained for unknown reasons in a move by the Assad government to reassert control and smother resistance in the region. In Syria at large, over 2,400 are being held in prisons, where thousands are believed to have perished due to poor treatment or torture.

Southeast Asia

Burma

On May 27, 2019, the Burmese government released seven soldiers who were jailed for the killing of 10 Rohingya in 2017, serving less than a year in what was supposed to be a ten-year prison sentence. Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo, Reuters reporters who gained international attention after being jailed for their investigation of Burma’s violence towards the Rohingya, were freed on May 7th after serving 500 days in prison. In mid-May, the World Bank announced plans to implement a $100 million development project in Burma to support small businesses and increase employment in impoverished areas of the country. Because of existing barriers that some rights groups liken to South African apartheid, human rights groups have expressed concerns that the project could end up being counterproductive if underlying social tensions remain unaddressed — which is likely if, as is proposed, the Burmese government decides how to allocate the funds.

In late May, Amnesty International conducted an investigation in Rakhine state, confirming that violence, war crimes, and human rights abuses are continuing against the state’s varying ethnic groups. The reports that ethnic Rakhine, Mro, Rohingya, and Khami villagers are living in conflict zones, in addition to newly-found evidence that the military is pursuing the destruction of ancient temple complexes in Mrauk-U. After being first reported on in March, the trafficking of women from Burma’s Kachin and Shan states has become increasingly dire. Kachin women have been continuously sold to China due to the country’s scarcity of women, and the issue has gone largely unrecognized with little to no action from Burma’s or China’s law enforcement.

Emerging Crises

Venezuela

Venezuela is mired in a major political crisis as the struggle for power intensifies between incumbent President Maduro and the leader of the opposition, Juan Guaidó. The 2018 elections remain contested, as numerous opposition candidates were barred from running and Venezuela’s Supreme Court carried out the legal indictment of National Assembly members. In January 2019, the National Assembly, led mostly by parties opposed to Maduro’s United Socialist Party of Venezuela, declared Guaidó the interim president of the country.

The international community is now split between those who have withdrawn recognition of Maduro’s government (including the U.S., Canada, the Organization of American States, and the majority of E.U. members), and those who view the Maduro government as legitimate (including Russia, China, and Iran). In the midst of the political unrest, the conflict also harbors a massive humanitarian crisis, as the 1.3 million % inflation rate, medical crisis, and food shortages cause millions of Venezuelans to flee.

In April, the West solidified its stance against Maduro’s government, as the U.S. demanded that Maduro be held accountable for the humanitarian crisis. Canada joined by placing further sanctions against 43 members of Maduro’s government and freezing their assets. Red Cross and other humanitarian aid organizations have begun relief deliveries and services in the region. As oil sanctions from the West intensified mid-April, Venezuela increased oil sales to Russia. On April 19, Guaidó called for a nation-wide march against Maduro’s government, intensifying the military crackdown in the country.

Meanwhile, Maduro has increased his reliance on the military, continuing to praise their ‘total loyalty’ and their importance in preserving Venezuelan leadership. Pro-Maduro countries such as Turkey and Russia accused Guaidó’s party of resorting to violence. As rallies against the Maduro regime have intensified, Brazilian and Lima Group intelligence have suggested that there are fractions in the military which could lead to the regime’s collapse. Amnesty International and other human rights organizations have called for the ICC to investigate crimes against humanity in Venezuela as the E.U. and the U.S. continue to condemn Venezuelan courts’ proceedings against opposition parties.

–

Isabel Wolfer is a recent graduate of The George Washington University in Washington, DC, and is STAND’s outgoing Communications Coordinator. In addition to her work with STAND, Isabel has interned for the Darfur Women Action Group, the U.S. Department of Justice, the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, and has been a Junior Resident Fellow at the Center for Khmer Studies in Siem Reap, Cambodia. Isabel contributed the Sudan portion of this update.

Grace Harris is an incoming junior at Tampa Preparatory School in Florida, where she serves as the president of her STAND chapter. She also serves on STAND national’s Sudan and Yemen Action Committees, and will be STAND’s State Advocacy Lead for Florida in the 2019-2020 academic year. Grace contributed the South Sudan portion of this update.

Megan Smith is a rising senior at the University of Southern California, where she will be working to reestablish a STAND chapter, and is an incoming member of STAND’s Managing Committee co-leading education and outreach. Previously, she has served on the Policy Task Force of STAND France during her junior year and as California State Advocacy Lead during her sophomore year. Outside of STAND, she interned at the nonprofits DigDeep (Los Angeles) and HAMAP-Humanitaire (Paris) and currently works at Dexis Consulting Group. Megan contributed the DRC portion of this update.

Yasmine Halmane is an incoming senior at Teaneck High School in New Jersey, where she is working to establish her school’s first STAND chapter. She also serves on STAND national’s Yemen and Sudan Action Committees. In addition to her work with STAND, Yasmine is also affiliated with Amnesty International US. Yasmine contributed the Yemen portion of this update.

Abby Edwards is a junior in the Dual BA program between Columbia University and Sciences Po Paris and serves on the STAND USA Managing Committee. Prior to this, Abby served on the Managing Committee of STAND France and worked as an intern for the Buchenwald Memorial, the Journal of European and American Intelligence Studies, and conducted research for the US Department of State – Office of the Historian. This summer, Abby will be conducting research on post-conflict education in Cambodia as a Junior Research Fellow with the Center for Khmer Studies. Abby contributed the Syria portion of this update.

Caroline Mendoza is a STAND Managing Committee member and an incoming senior at Cerritos High School in California. She and served as STAND’s 2018-2019 West Region Field Organizer, and on STAND’s Burma and Yemen Action Committees. In her free time, Caroline participates in Model United Nations, marching band, and Girl Scouts, and pursues Holocaust and genocide education. Caroline contributed the Burma portion of this update.

Vishwa Padigepati is an incoming first year student at Yale University, and a member of the STAND Managing Committee, as well as the Yemen and Sudan Action Committees. In addition to her work in STAND, she has interned for her State Senator and Congressional Representative and has done policy research on developmental infrastructure for Andhra Pradesh, India. Vishwa contributed the Venezuela portion of this update.

This week’s conflict update covers events since the beginning of 2019 in STAND’s key focus areas: Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Yemen, Syria, Burma, and the escalating crisis in Venezuela. We are thankful to STAND Action Committee members Grace Harris and Maya Ungar, as well as STAND Managing Committee members, Grace Fernandes, Isabel Wolfer, Hannah King, Vishwa Padigepati, Caroline Mendoza, and Zachary Gossett for researching and writing pieces of this brief.

Sudan and South Sudan

Sudan

Weekly protests every Thursday calling for the end of the al-Bashir regime continue as they enter their fourth month. These peaceful protests, which originally began in December to protest the rising costs of basic goods and shortages of fuel, have resulted in dozens of civilians killed, hundreds injured, and thousands detained as Sudanese security forces responded with extreme force, including tear gas, batons, and ammunition. The Sudanese Professionals Associations (SPA), one of the primary groups coordinating the marches, named the demonstration on March 21 the “Procession for Justice” as a memorial for war crimes committed by the government. Although the government has reduced the excessive use of force against demonstrators, between 30 and 50 protesters have been killed since December 2018.

On February 22, President Omar al-Bashir declared a yearlong State of Emergency in an effort to quell the protests. The legislature has since cut this to six months. Earlier this month, Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes in Darfur, delegated leadership of the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) to Ahmed Harun, who is also wanted by the ICC for war crimes in Darfur.

Earlier this month, an emergency court sent eight people to prison for participation in anti-government protests. The Democratic Lawyers Alliance, a group supporting the protests, reported that at least 870 protesters were brought before these emergency courts that were established due to al-Bashir’s declaration of a national emergency.

Interested in learning more about current events in Sudan and how you can support peaceful demonstrators? Join our webinar on Thursday, March 28 at 7 PM EST – click here to register!

South Sudan

Violence in South Sudan continues despite the peace deal signed by President Salva Kiir and rebel leader and former Vice President Riek Machar last fall. The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan, stated last month that the peace agreement has done little to deliver immediate improvement for civilians or enhance accountability measures, noting an increase in arbitrary detention, torture, execution, and gender-based violence. Notably, more than 10,000 people have been displaced since January due to violent clashes between government forces and armed groups. Violence has been particularly severe in Central Equatoria State, where the National Salvation Front has clashed with the government army. Thousands of refugees displaced by this unrest have fled to the Democratic Republic of the Congo over the past eight weeks. A UN report released last week concluded that South Sudan’s population is the least happy in Africa.

In late March, an almost $185 million spending deal was approved by the transitional government. This decision sparked criticism from observers claiming that the peace deal continues to suffer from a lack of funds due to corruption. Last December, the government allegedly authorized over $135,000 to renovate private residences owned by First Vice President Taban Deng Gai and the late revolutionary leader John Garang. Experts have expressed concern over an increasing lack of financial transparency among government officials and warned that international donors may not contribute to the depleting transition fund as consequence.

Great Lakes of Africa

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Controversy surrounded the long-awaited DRC elections in December 2018. In addition to internet and text messaging shutdowns, signal cuts of Radio France Internationale, and voter intimidation and coercion, voting was postponed for voters in three opposition areas, restricting voting for over a million Congolese citizens. Over 1,000 polling stations in Kinshasa were closed due problems with voting machines and voter lists, and election observers were unable to access many polling stations and vote tabulation centers. In the wake of these events, at least 10 people were killed and dozens wounded by security forces during protests against the victory of Félix Tshisekedi. Notably, the Catholic Church, one of the most trusted institutions in the country, leaked results based off of their voter observation efforts that Martin Fayulu, another opposition candidate, had won by a landslide. Fayulu has challenged the results in court, but to no avail.

Concurrently, Congo has suffered a grave Ebola epidemic which has exceeded 1,000 cases, making it the world’s second worst outbreak. Due to ongoing conflict in Eastern DRC, there is great deal of public mistrust when it comes to treatment of the disease, and armed groups have staged attacks on ebola treatment centers, inhibiting the response of health workers. Just last week, two Médecins Sans Frontières treatment centers were set on fire in such attacks, forcing them to suspend operations in these areas. According to UNICEF statistics, children represent a third of ebola victims, and women, who often serve as primary caretakers of sick children, have also been disproportionately affected.

On March 14, DRC held Senate elections in which former President Joseph Kabila’s party, the Common Front for Congo, won the majority of  seats while Tshisekedi’s party, the Union for Democracy and Social Progress, won only 3 out of 100. There is evidence of at least 20 candidates who withdrew from races due to voter bribery efforts by provincial assembly members. As such, Tshisekedi has not allowed the newly-elected senators to take office, pending an investigation, and has indefinitely suspended the gubernatorial elections that were scheduled for next week.

Middle East

Yemen

At the end of 2018, there was cautious optimism for the situation in Yemen as the warring parties met in Sweden for peace talks. They agreed to a ceasefire in the strategic port city of Hodeidah, as well as a prisoner exchange. However, the condition of ordinary Yemenis remains bleak, with 80% living in poverty and 110,000 suspected cases of cholera. Since the war began, the World Bank estimates that 35% of businesses have closed, with household income plummeting due to inflation and currency devaluation. While the ceasefire has lead to short respites from violence, civilian deaths remain high and both parties blame the other for violations. The agreed-upon prisoner exchange has yet to occur and relatives of those imprisoned are calling for the parties to uphold the agreement. The continuation of peace talks has been delayed and some say time is running out. Additionally, some from southern Yemen are threatening a new conflict if they are not included in the talks. There have been calls for independence in southern Yemen since the unification of Yemen in the 1990s, as the ruling north has sidelined local economic and political concerns.

The United Nations is seeking $4.2 billion for the continuation of humanitarian work over the next year. Last month, they regained access to the Red Sea Mills, a food storage center pivotal to efficient food distribution in the region. Despite their active involvement in the war, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pledged $2.6 billion dollars to fund the UN humanitarian plan for Yemen. However, the full funding goal is, as of now, unmet.

In the United States, the House and Senate voted this year to end assistance to Saudi Arabia’s efforts in Yemen, each passing a version of the War Powers Resolution. However, since the language is not identical, the House must vote on the Senate version before being sent to the White House to be signed into law. President Trump has threatened to veto this legislation if passed.

Syria

As Syria enters the ninth year of civil war, Syria’s refugees and internally displaced peoples have suffered another harsh winter. Over 37 internally displaced children were frozen to death, both in Rukban Camp, and fleeing from Hajin, an ISIS-held bastion further north. In late January 2019, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey revived the idea of creating safe zones along Turkey’s border to protect civilians. Concerns remain as to whether refugees may be forcibly returned as a result, and how safe zones would affect Kurdish civilians. Turkey has long has tensions with the Kurdish people, who have long fought for political autonomy in Turkey and throughout the Middle East. Since the beginning of the conflict, over half of the country’s pre-war population has been displaced, with 5.6 million people living as refugees and 6.2 million people displaced internally. Half of those affected are children.

On March 23, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces announced a military victory over the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS), who once held a third of Syria and Iraq’s territory. Following this victory, the top military commander in Syria’s Kurdish territory, who led anti-ISIL efforts, urged President Bashar al-Assad to pursue dialogue and in order to reach a political solution towards an autonomous Kurdish region. In response to the announcement of the defeat of the ISIL, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany said they would remain vigilant of the group’s “sleeper cells” that still pose terrorist threats. Amongst military strategists, concerns remain that victory will be fleeting, and that ISIS will regroup once troop withdrawals are complete.

Southeast Asia

Burma

Content Warning: This section describes sex trafficking and sexual violence.

The situation of the Rohingya has continued to worsen in 2019. The Rohingya, a primarily-Muslim ethnic and religious minority group, have long been persecuted by the Burmese government. Since August 2017, thousands have been killed, driving hundreds of thousands across the border to Bangladesh, sparking international outrage and leading to the creation of the largest refugee camp in the world. Overcrowding in the camps has led to further problems. Bangladesh, already a very poor country, has struggled to handle the influx of refugees, and are seeking to move Rohingya refugees to an island in the Bay of Bengal. This island is remote, frequently hit by cyclones, and is considered uninhabitable. Experts worry that this forced movement will lead to further problems for the vulnerable Rohingya population.

Conflict continues against ethnic minorities due to Burmese military activity in the Kachin and Shan states. These conflicts have increased the vulnerability for exploitation of Kachin and Shan women. While men fight, women must take increasingly risky job opportunities to support their families, some of which lead to human trafficking. A massively incriminating report released by Human Rights Watch last week uncovered the human trafficking of Kachin women forced to become wives in China. Originally promised jobs in China, these women discover upon arrival that they were instead sold to Chinese families. They are locked away and repeatedly raped until they become pregnant. After having a child, the women either remain as sex slaves or are returned to their families, sometimes after years of abuse.

Emerging Crises

Venezuela

The Venezuela crisis began in January when the opposition-led National Assembly declared Juan Guaidó the interim president of the country. For years, Venezuela has suffered from hyperinflation, food shortages, and increasingly totalitarian policies at the hands of Nicolás Maduro’s government. While the U.S. and the majority of the EU and Organization of American States support Guaidó, Russia and Cuba, long-time Maduro allies, continue to support the current government.

Early on March 21, Venezuelan authorities apprehended Guaidó’s chief of staff, Robert Marrero, marking a significant escalation in the political crisis. His arrest mirrors similar crackdowns on dissent by Maduro’s government. Venezuelan doctors also face government pressure after attempting to alert the UN to the dire shortage of essential medicines. Michelle Bachelet, the UN Human Rights Chief, has criticized both the Maduro regime for cracking down on dissent, and US sanctions for exacerbating the conflict.

The US claims that these sanctions are meant to target government activities alone, yet many argue that they are hurting the most vulnerable Venezuelans. Along with sanctions, the US has increased intelligence sharing in the region, providing information to Colombian authorities about insurgents who have been strengthened due to the Venezuela conflict. While unconfirmed, experts speculate that Maduro is allowing insurgent activity in order to prepare for possible military intervention. If true, these actions would simply be the latest example of the Maduro administration’s transgressions.

Recent US-Russia talks over Venezuela have stalled due to the differing visions of Maduro’s role in the nation, and on Monday, Russia landed two military planes in the country, a move the U.S. denounced as a “contradiction of both Nicolas Maduro’s and Russia’s calls for non-intervention […] [and] a reckless escalation of the situation.”

–

Grace Harris, who contributed to the Sudan section of this brief, is a sophomore at Tampa Preparatory School in Florida, where she serves as the president of her STAND chapter. She joined STAND after learning about the Darfur genocide in my World History 1 class during her Freshman year, seeking an opportunity to take action and make a difference in the world. In addition to leading STAND at Tampa Prep, Grace serves on STAND national’s Sudan and Yemen Action Committees.

Isabel Wolfer, who contributed to the South Sudan section of this brief, is STAND’s Communications Coordinator and a member of the Sudan Working Group. She is a senior at The George Washington University in Washington, DC and a former intern for the Darfur Women Action Group.

Hannah King and Vishwa Padigepati, who contributed to the Yemen section of this brief, are members of STAND’s Managing Committee and the Yemen Action Committee. Hannah is STAND’s Campaigns Coordinator and a senior at Clark University in Massachusetts and Vishwa is STAND’s Advocacy Coordinator and a student at Fairmont Preparatory Academy in California.

Maya Ungar, who contributed to the Burma section of this brief, is a junior at the University of Arkansas and is serving as STAND’s Southeast Asia Coordinator for the 2018-2019 academic year. She is currently studying abroad in Chiang Mai, Thailand.

Grace Fernandes, who contributed to the DRC section of this brief, is a junior at Simmons University in Boston, Massachusetts, and one of STAND’s Student Co-Directors. She leads STAND’s Indigenous Peoples Action Committee.

Caroline Mendoza, who contributed to the Syria section of this brief, is a junior at Cerritos High School in California, and serves on the STAND Outreach Team. She is a member of the Burma and Yemen Action Committees.

Zachary Gossett, who contributed to the Venezuela section of this brief, is a sophomore at Butler University and a member of STAND’s Outreach Team, He serves on the Indigenous Peoples and Burma Action Committees.

We, the student leaders of STAND, recognize that the wide-scale violence being taken against the Rohingya is genocide as defined legally by the 1948 Genocide Convention. We call on the international community to hold the Burmese government and military accountable for their actions.

In addition to a recent increase in violence, the Rohingya have historically been a marginalized group within Burma. In 1962, the Muslim minority group were stripped of their citizenship and labeled “illegal immigrants” by the government who speculated that they had arrived from Bangladesh. However, independent reports have recognized their pre-British colonial presence in Northern Arakan. Thus, the Burmese government must recognize and respect the inalienable right of the Rohingya to live in their country.

Recently, in its campaign to ethnically cleanse Burma’s Rakhine State, the military has burned villages, tortured and killed civilians, and raped hundreds of women. Even when refugees make it out of Burma, they live in overcrowded camps that struggle to provide basic living necessities and where the spread of disease is inevitable.

As a student-led organization dedicated to ending genocide and mass atrocities wherever they may occur, STAND acknowledges the suffering of the Rohingya in Burma as genocide and urges the international community to take the necessary steps to ensure that the Rohingya— as well as other ethnic minorities in the country— are not persecuted based upon their ethnic or religious identity.

This week’s update focuses on violence against the Rohingya by the Burmese military; an appeal by the UN for more funding to assist with the humanitarian crisis in Yemen where Yemenis are not only facing violence, but also starvation and lack of medical care; and attempts at Syria peace talks planned for this week in Geneva.

Southeast Asia

Burma

UN officials have reported on Burma’s persistent ethnic cleansing targeting the Rohingya population and forcing their mass evacuation from the country. While the government still denies any abuse, the BBC released a video documenting victim accounts of the violence. Victims reported that the military has burned their houses and mosques and brutally murdered their family members. The UN and other human rights investigators are calling on the Myanmar government to end these mass atrocities.

At the beginning of the month, a Malaysian ship docked in Yangon, Burma to deliver food, clothing, and medicine to the persecuted Rohingya was met by Buddhist monks and protesters as well as health workers and activists. Malaysian aid workers reportedly trusted that the Myanmar government would hand over the 2,300 tons of food, clothing and medicine to Rakhine state where around 1 million Rohingya reside. Razali Ramli, who helped organize the shipment, stated, “We have to respect Myanmar’s sovereignty.” He felt that they handed over the supplies “in good faith.”

Middle East and North Africa

Yemen

The humanitarian situation in Yemen remains precarious, raging on without a clear end in sight. Humanitarian organizations and the international community remain concerned about the development of a crisis that touches the lives of millions of Yemenis due to the lack of access to medical facilities, medical care and supplies, food, and other basic necessities. There is severe need throughout the country, but particularly for those in hard-to-reach areas. In response, the UN has appealed for over two billion dollars in funding for 2017.

Despite slow advances, President Hadi’s forces retook the south-west port city of Mokha at the end of last month, which was seized by the Houthis in December 2014. Dozens of families fled the clashes and bombardment in Mokha. Violence has also hit the Saudi border, and the Saudi-led coalition lost seven Saudi soldiers on February 14 in clashes with the Houthi rebels. This incident highlights the continued influence of foreign parties in the conflict.

The violence continues to rage without signs of abating, as countless efforts at peace talks have been exhausted without a long-term deal. However, the dynamics of the conflict have great potential to change as developments in the Middle East as well as changes in foreign policy for nations involved in the conflict begin to have an impact on the war.

Syria

The Geneva Talks scheduled for February 23 are anticipated to assist a collaborative dialogue between President Assad’s government representatives, various opposition figures, and rebels fighting within the Syrian borders.

The UN envoy to Syria, Staffan De Mistura, says negotiating a political transition for the war-torn country will be the sole item on the agenda for upcoming talks between the government and opposition in Geneva. U.S. News comments that De Mistura said the agenda is “fixed in UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which mandates a new form of governance for Syria, a new constitution, and new elections.”

The attendees were slated to arrive in Geneva on February 20. According to information reported by Rudaw, Bashar Jafar and a Kurdish member of the Syrian parliament will head the Syrian government’s delegation. Furthermore, Rudaw says that “the Syrian opposition will send 21 delegates to be headed by Nasr al-Hariri,” and that Fouad Aliko, a member of the Kurdish National Council (KNC, ENKS) will head the Kurdish representation within the opposition groups.” However, some rebel leaders refuse any negotiation talks until the current government reinforces the current ceasefire and addresses humanitarian concerns.

This will be the first time since the suspension of the April 2016 talks that the Syrian regime and opposition delegations have returned to Geneva.

–

Emily Lyford is STAND’s Southeast Asia Coordinator, focusing mainly on Burma. She is a freshman at the University of New Hampshire where she majors in Neuroscience and Behavior.

Ana Delgado is STAND’s Middle East and North Africa Coordinator, focusing mainly on Syria. She is a junior at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, majoring in Political Science and Peace, War, and Defense.

Jason Qu is STAND’s Emerging Conflicts Coordinator, focusing today on Yemen. He is a Senior at Bronx High School of Science.

This week’s update focuses on Yemen, Syria, and Burma. Though violence and atrocious living conditions continue in Yemen, a positive development comes as the Arab Coalition in Yemen has confirmed they will cease their use of British cluster bombs. Another ceasefire agreement was reached in Syria, this time excluding ISIS and their affiliates.

Middle East and North Africa

Syria

After the latest examples of despair in Syria, the Syrian government and rebel groups in the country have finally agreed to a ceasefire. On December 29, Vladimir Putin and the Turkish government confirmed the settlement. Russian state media stated, “the two sides had also agreed to enter peace talks to end the conflict that has raged for nearly six years.” Russia and Turkey will act as guarantors of the deal.

It is crucial to note the absence of jihadist groups in this deal. The Syrian army has stated that IS groups and their affiliates are not protected by the ceasefire. However, the deal includes the Jabhat Fateh al-Sham group, formerly known as al-Nusra Front, and until mid-2016 al-Qaeda’s Syria branch.

While this is the third nationwide ceasefire in Syria this year, STAND hopes it will last. The Syrian conflict has taken hundreds of thousands of lives and casualties will only grow if this resolve is not kept.

Southeast Asia

Burma

Systemic discrimination against the Rohingya people continues, with Bangladesh reporting that more than fifty thousand Rohingya have fled there since November. On January 3, a video was released of four armed police officers beating unarmed Rohingya men. The grotesque video went viral, causing outraged activists to call for action. In response, the office of Burma’s leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, announced that the four officers would be punished.

One of the countries criticizing Burma’s actions is Malaysia, where Prime Minister Najib Razak has criticized ill treatment of the Rohingya. He also led a rally in December protesting the ongoing discrimination. Ayob Khan Mydin Pitchay, a senior counter-terrorism official in Malaysia, warned that continuing to persecute the Rohingya could make Burma a target for ISIS. His statement was released after the Malaysian government detained a man planning to fight the Myanmar government on behalf of the Rohingya. The unidentified man is suspected to have ties to ISIS.

The Myanmar government continues to depict incidents of violence against the Rohingya as isolated instances, rather than acknowledging their large scale nature. On January 4, the Myanmar government published a report claiming that there was no evidence of genocide or mass rape carried out against the Rohingya.

Emerging Conflicts

Yemen

The humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen continues to rage as the bitter conflict in a seemingly more unstable Middle East appears to have no end in sight. Over 3 million Yemenis have been displaced from their homes, and medical infrastructure, some hundreds of facilities, have been destroyed in constant fighting and bombardment, both from rebels and the Saudi-led coalition and its allies. Groups like Doctors Without Borders have faced growing pressures as a result of the conflict, and many aid organizations have simply pulled out of the region due to the massive security risk, and oftentimes the total disregard for the special protections given to humanitarian workers and civilian facilities under international law. This means that millions lack access to health facilities for basic needs, let alone war-related injuries, and understaffed and undersupplied hospitals are forced to take on more and more patients. The most vulnerable populations appear to be the elderly, pregnant women, and children. Malnourishment, notably in rural areas, has become another major issue, as over half a million children in Yemen face this condition, according to UNICEF. This has contributed significantly to civilian suffering as deaths from the conflict are expected to climb to well over 10,000 by the end of the year, with countless more injuries reported. Many of these casualties are a result of indiscriminate attacks from both rebel forces, through artillery and mortars, and the Saudi-led coalition, mainly through airstrikes.

However, in a positive development, the Arab Coalition in Yemen has confirmed they will no longer use British cluster bombs, which have an especially devastating impact on civilian casualties and infrastructure. Nonetheless, the international community appears to be at a loss regarding a possible long-term solution for Yemen, as previous ceasefires and proposals for talks or a unity government have fallen apart.

–

Ana Delgado is STAND’s Middle East and North Africa Coordinator, focusing mainly on Syria. She is a junior at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, majoring in Political Science and Peace, War, and Defense.

Amala Karri is STAND’s Policy Intern and attends Hunter College High School in New York. She contributed STAND’s Burma Update for this week’s Education News Brief.

Jason Qu is STAND’s Emerging Conflicts Coordinator, focusing today on Yemen and Pakistan. He is a Senior at Bronx High School of Science.

1) Syria

2016 was a disastrous year for an already horrific conflict, as the Assad regime stepped up its use of sieges and as the fight for Aleppo last month became even harsher than many expected. The rebels are increasingly weak, particularly more moderate factions, and many rebels and civilians who were in formerly rebel-held territory, particularly around Aleppo, have been pushed into Idlib. The possibility remains that civilians that survived the brutal siege of Aleppo will once again face similar circumstances as the Syrian government and its allies push to retake further opposition territory. The U.S.,an increasingly peripheral player in the conflict, was left out of the most recent round of peace talks, and President-Elect Trump seems likely to withdraw support with the opposition and increase cooperation with Russia, a main ally of Assad. Turkey has also become more cooperative with Russia and is now focusing on combatting Kurdish influence rather than supporting the opposition. Already struggling after recent territorial losses, the Islamic State will also likely lose influence in 2017.

2) South Sudan

Having already caused immense suffering since its start in 2013, South Sudan’s civil war threatens to spiral even further in 2017. Originally caused by a split between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, the SPLM-IO—Machar’s side—has split. Kiir appointed Taban Deng Gai to replace Machar as Vice President, and his decision to force Machar out of the country has left his supporters feeling unrepresented. The repeated failure of political negotiations has led many actors to see violence as their only route to power. Ethnic divisions have also solidified, and the region of Equatoria in particular has seen increased violence. This combination of factors has led to increasingly dire warnings, with the UN announcing that ethnic cleansing is already underway. The international response has been underwhelming, with the UN unable to come to an agreement on a potential arms embargo.

3) Burma (Myanmar)

The Muslim ethnic minority group, the Rohingya, has long lived in dire conditions, stripped of citizenship and often forced to live in internally displaced people (IDP) camps. Described as the world’s group most at risk of genocide, there is an ever-lingering risk of a spark setting off mass violence. Aung San Suu Kyi, the de facto leader of the country, and the National League for Democracy (NLD) have shown little interest in the Rohingya and seemingly lack the ability to control the military, who is in charge of managing the situation in Rakhine State. Security forces and members of the Rakhine ethnic group have both perpetrated violence against Rohingya, and the October killing of several police officers—with a group of Rohingya accused to be the attackers—has raised tensions. There are also reports that some Rohingya have reacted to their continued subjection through the creation of an insurgency. However, Rohingya know from experience that any violence they may perpetrate would likely lead to retaliation against Rohingya civilians. Reports of a plan among security forces to arm non-Muslim civilians also raise fears of increased violence. Should the situation deteriorate, almost no Burmese actors seem ready to come to the Rohingya’s defense. As the crisis continues, the government must reconsider its approach to the issue, build positive relations between the majority Buddhist and minority Muslim populations, and cease the use of excessive force against civilians, lest they precipitate the growth of a small number of Rohingya insurgents.

Additionally, ethnic groups around the country—such as the eastern Shan, Karen, Kokang, and Kachin, Ta’ang, and Arakan, now in an alliance—are politically sidelined and face violence at the hands of Myanmar government militias, even after Aung San Suu Kyi’s 21-Century Panglong Conference. There is speculation that the NLD is keeping quiet on the military’s blockade of transport and aid in these areas due to pre-election agreements with the military. Tensions and periodic violence seem unlikely to cease in 2017.

4) Sudan

Sudan is primed for significant violence against civilians in 2017, but much of it may remain out of the public spotlight. The Sudanese government has cut off access for journalists and aid workers to areas where it has conducted attacks on civilians, including much of Darfur, and many believe violence in Darfur may be returning towards levels from the height of the conflict. Huge numbers of internally displaced people remain in Sudan with almost no access to aid and few means to support themselves. In addition to Darfur, the Sudanese government continues to bomb civilians in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states. In an extremely alarming development in the conflict, Amnesty International also found evidence of 30 likely chemical attacks against civilians from January to September 2016. There is unlikely to be any large reduction of violence in 2017, as peace talks have broken down and the government remains invested in crushing rebellion. Sudan is also facing reduced international pressure. Many European governments have proved willing to support Sudan in order to prevent refugees from reaching their shores, while the U.S. is rumored to be preparing to lift sanctions.

5) Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Despite recent progress, uncertainty over President Kabila’s willingness to step down as president suggests conflict could escalate in the country in 2017. Kabila is constitutionally mandated to step down after two terms, and his second term was mandated to end in December 2016. After his pasts effort to amend the constitution to allow a third term failed, Kabila implemented various measures to push back his exit date, frequently citing concerns about the country’s readiness to conduct elections. A recent deal brokered by the Catholic Church calls for President Kabila to step down and elections to be held by the end of 2017, but it is unclear whether Kabila will respect the deal. If he does not, violence will likely escalate as hundreds have already been killed in confrontations between police and protesters. Armed groups outside urban areas have also used ongoing political uncertainty to gain influence and territory. Meanwhile, the largest cause of civilian death in the DRC remains insurgencies in the country’s east, though these groups are far less powerful and are more splintered than they were at their peak.

6) Yemen

Though unlikely to escalate significantly, Yemen’s devastating conflict seems likely to grind on. The conflict has moved towards equilibrium with no side strong enough to win, but both also unwilling to give up. On one side of the conflict is the former Yemeni government of Abd Mansur Hadi, heavily backed by a Saudi-led coalition. The Saudis are certain to continue their bombings, as they believe the defeat of the Hadi government would advantage their rival, Iran. The US continues to back the coalition, albeit more tentatively, as a recent decision to block an arms sale signifies. For their part, Hadi’s government has little power but maintains some influence in the south. On the other side, the Houthi rebels maintain control of much of the country, including the capital Sana’a, but are struggling to govern. They remain in an uneasy alliance with former president Ali Abdullah Saleh and receive limited support from Iran. Saudi bombings have frequently hit civilians and the conflict has devastated the economy. Hunger is extremely widespread and the Saudi coalition has repeatedly blocked the delivery of aid, continuously bombing major ports and further threatening aid delivery.

7) Burundi

President Pierre Nkurunziza’s decision to seek what is considered by many to be an unconstitutional third term sparked recent conflict in Burundi. Although he is now securely placed in his third term, the situation is far from resolution. Extrajudicial executions continue and thousands have died throughout the course of the conflict. The conflict has remained primarily political rather than ethnic, but there are signs that violence against Tutsi could increase. The Burundian government’s decision to leave the International Criminal Court suggests that their human rights record will not soon improve, and the recent assassination of a government official also raises tensions. Peace talks have stalled since July, when the government pulled out of the talks. Opposition groups were upset last month when chief mediator, former Tanzania President Benjamin Mkapa, urged them to look toward the 2020 elections, seeming to ignore their concerns about the 2015 election. In this context, talks seem unlikely to resume, as the opposition feels slighted, and Nkurunziza feels that he can retain power with no real resistance. An armed insurgency in exile remains capable of conducting attacks, though it holds relatively little power and is unlikely to seriously threaten Nkurunziza’s government. Still, as long as they are denied political rights there is the possibility that more opposition supporters will choose to use violence.

8) Ethiopia

Ethiopia has suffered significant unrest over the last year after protests emerged in the Oromia region. Originally concentrated on feelings of underrepresentation and marginalization of the Oromo ethnic group, the protests have spread to the Amhara region and have given voice to discontent with the government. Long seen as a champion of an authoritarian development model, Ethiopia has cracked down heavily on the protests and shown few signs of a democratic opening. Amnesty International has found that security forces have killed over 800 people since protests began in November 2015. With the opposition also growing increasingly disillusioned with the potential for peaceful change, potential for violence in 2017 is high.

9) Kenya

August’s elections could very well proceed successfully and represent democratic progress in Kenya, but they also hold significant potential for conflict. President Uhuru Kenyatta will be contested by Raila Odinga in a repeat of the 2013 election. In the 2007 election, Odinga’s defeat led to violence killing around 1,000 people, while the 2013 election remained quite peaceful. It is unclear which path 2017 will take, but there are warning signs that suggest potential violence. Trust in IEBC, the electoral commission, is low, and blows to Kenyatta’s popularity may cause a highly competitive election. Further, despite demand, the Kenyatta government has struggled to provide reforms, and continued police brutality has incited protests and raised fears of a heavy-handed response in the case of post-election protests. In addition to national elections, 47 counties will also hold local elections, and as ethnic tensions in several parts of the country remain high, it will not take much for localized conflict to erupt.

10) Zimbabwe

92-year old President Robert Mugabe’s insistence on staying in power after 36 years in charge threatens to spark conflict in Zimbabwe. 2016 already saw increased resistance to Mugabe, with protests gaining ground in the summer. Youth activists, often using social media to spread messages such as that of previously unknown Pastor Evan Mawawire—the founder of the #ThisFlag movement to end corruption and increase government transparency and accountability—were at the heart of the protests. Police cracked down heavily on protesters, but calls continued to urge Mugabe to step down immediately, rather than wait for elections in 2018 when Mugabe intends to run for re-election. Ongoing economic problems have also damaged the popularity of Mugabe’s government. Still, the potential for Mugabe to be forced from power hinges on a number of uncertainties, including the strengthening of a divided opposition and the military’s loyalty to Mugabe. Two things remain quite a bit more certain: that Mugabe will not cede power easily and many Zimbabweans will wish he would.

–

Timmy Hirschel-Burns is a senior at Swarthmore College majoring in Political Science and is STAND’s Policy Coordinator. You can follow him on Twitter at @TimH_B.

Featured photo is by The White Helmets.

This week’s update focuses on Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria, and Burma. An attack on a Shia mosque in Kabul left 27 dead and 50 injured. The formation of a Houthi government in Yemen has alarmed many in the international community regarding the future of Yemen. Aleppo is in crisis after being reclaimed by the Assad regime this week. Civilians have been targeted amidst multiple failed ceasefires, and 39 additional communities across Syria remain under siege.

Middle East and North Africa

Syria

The conflict in Eastern Aleppo escalated in recent week, with Syrian civilians facing mass atrocities at the hands of the Syrian government and its allies during the retaking of the city last week. Constant conflict between the Syrian government and rebels since 2012 has left the Aleppo and its residents in deep despair.

After a three-week pause in the Syrian and Russian bombing of Eastern Aleppo, the government targeted the area with bombs for two weeks. The conflict has had a huge effect on the rebel forces, the Syrian army, and the overall political stability of the Middle East. However, the citizens of Eastern Aleppo have suffered the hardest blows.

During the battle for Aleppo, the UN Human Rights Council received reports that 82 civilians were summarily executed by regime forces last Monday. There were credible reports of whole families with last names associated with the opposition being killed, the entire medical staff at the SAMS (Syrian American Medical Society)-run Al-Hayat Hospital being executed, and White Helmet rescuers being targeted with at least one volunteer being killed by a sniper. Activists and aid workers filmed what they thought may be their final words in a last plea to the world for action.

Nearly 10,000 civilians had been evacuated from Aleppo by Friday morning, when the temporary ceasefire broke down. On Friday afternoon, the New York Times reported that “a convoy of hundreds of evacuees was detained and turned back by pro-government militiamen […] because insurgents in Idlib Province, farther north, were blocking an evacuation of civilians from two villages besieged by rebels.” On Sunday, armed men set at least buses ablaze that were planning to carry evacuating civilians to Idlib from Aleppo, again pausing evacuations.  

Yesterday, the UN Security Council voted to send UN observers to monitor evacuations, with the caveat that they must consult with “interested parties,” which could theoretically give any group on the ground the ability to block UN access to certain areas. In Turkey, the Russian Ambassador was shot by a lone Turkish gunman, who shouted, “God is great! Don’t forget Aleppo! Don’t forget Syria!”, concerning many regarding relations between Russia and Turkey. As reported by the New York Times, the assassination came in the wake of two days of protests by Turks angry over Russia’s role in the Syria conflict, and in particular atrocities in Aleppo.

There are at least 39 communities across Syria under siege, according to a recent Siege Watch report, affecting some 1.3 million people. According to the report, the Syrian government and its allies, including Russia, are responsible “for the majority of existing sieges,” which aim to get communities to surrender by depriving them of food, medical supplies, and, vitally important in the winter, fuel for heating their homes. Many in besieged communities such as Madaya fear for their safety in light of the violence in Aleppo.  

Southeast Asia

Burma

Burmese military forces continue to target the minority Rohingya population. In recent months, 21,000 Rohingya have fled to Bangladesh. The situation is escalating, and last week, it was revealed that the Burmese army has burnt down more than 1,500 homes and buildings in Rohingya villages located in Rakhine State, raped Rohingya women, and conducted extrajudicial killings of Muslims. These claims contradict the information the Burmese government has been providing the public, and the military has also denied the latest claims.

However, recent evidence obtained by Human Rights Watch suggests the Burmese military is guilty of committing mass atrocities. The UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Burma, Yanghee Lee, has commented that the acts are quickly approaching what “we would all agree are crimes against humanity.”

The situation in Rakhine State is dire. As of December 9, only 20,000 people in northern Rakhine have received food, nutrition assistance, or cash, compared to more than 150,000 who were receiving aid before October 9. Fourteen countries, including the United States, have been pressuring Burma to allow humanitarian aid in areas populated primarily by Rohingya.

Meanwhile, Burma continues to be a dangerous place for journalists and dissidents. Areas such as Rakhine State are sealed off to journalists, leaving only local residents to attempt to report on the atrocities. Still, it is not uncommon for residents to receive threats, and on December 13, a local-based journalist in Burma was killed while reporting on illegal logging, which is a huge problem in Burma.

Emerging Conflicts

Afghanistan

Violence in Afghanistan continues to wrack the country as terrorists groups like ISIS continue to target notable minorities such as Shia Muslims. On November 21, a Shia Muslim mosque was attacked in Kabul during a service commemorating the death of Imam Hussein, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad. At least 27 are dead and over 50 injured. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack, which follows a series of high-profile acts of violence committed primarily against the Shia minorities in the country. ISIS and other terrorist organizations in the country previously claimed responsibility for a chain of bombings and shootings across Afghanistan and in parts of neighboring Pakistan. Human Rights Watch has released a report detailing their concerns regarding the lack of success of the Afghani government in providing security to civilians during public gatherings. Security remains a primary concern as sectarian violence continues across the country.

Yemen

Although the Houthi rebels claim that their formation of a government on November 29 does not mean a withdrawal from a basic roadmap to peace in Yemen, many in the international community are alarmed. The United Nations had hoped for the Houthis and factions loyal to Hadi, seen by some as the legitimate President of Yemen, to form a unity government, and for both sides, notably the Houthis, to withdraw from major flashpoints of the conflict. However, continued violence has placed incredible strain on both sides’ willingness to negotiate and come to a common agreement. The establishment of a government led by Houthi loyalists is a setback to prospects for a permanent peace. US Secretary of State John Kerry announced a 48-hour ceasefire in mid-November, seeking to apply pressure on parties to the conflict to stop fighting. Although the Houthi rebels agreed to the ceasefire, Hadi’s forces refused.

While the Saudi-led Coalition accepted a temporary cessation of hostilities, the Yemeni Foreign Minister for Hadi’s government continued to reject the notion of a ceasefire. The UN brokered a similar ceasefire in October, which rapidly broke down near its end, but renewed some hopes of a more permanent settlement. However, within a day, fighting broke out again from both Houthi fighters and fighters loyal to Hadi, notably in the embattled city of Taiz. Doctors Without Borders reported that on the first day of the ceasefire, at least 76 were wounded and 21 were killed in clashes throughout the city through violent acts committed by both sides. The Saudi-led Coalition ultimately refused to renew the ceasefire, citing violations of the ceasefire by the Houthi rebels while the Houthis also accused the Saudi-led Coalition of violations. There appears to be little hope in the near future for a final settlement to the conflict in Yemen, and the consequences for civilians are huge. More than 10,000 have been killed and millions displaced throughout the country, and many continue to suffer from little-to-no access to desperately-needed  humanitarian assistance.

Recent developments continue to reshape the situation in Yemen. The precarious security situation and continued violence in the country was made even more evident when ISIS took responsibility for a suicide bombing on December 18, near the al-Sawlaban military base in Aden, where Yemeni soldiers were lining up to collect their salaries. At least 48 deaths have been reported. Secretary Kerry is on a visit to Saudi Arabia to discuss the war in Yemen, which Saudi has played a key role in through direct military intervention by a Saudi-led coalition. The intervention has attracted significant criticism from members of the international community and human rights organizations as civilian casualties and assaults on civilian facilities such as hospitals have been reported. Groups like Amnesty International have lobbied Washington to block arms deals to Saudi Arabia, asserting that they contribute to the deaths of civilians in Yemen, and the Obama Administration finally responded on December 14 by halting the sale of 400 million dollars in armaments to Saudi Arabia. It appears this was done over concerns regarding civilian casualties. While US officials have said the “precision-guided weapons” in question will no longer be transferred, the security and intelligence relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia will continue, especially as terrorism remains a major issue in the region. Groups like Human Rights Watch acknowledge this as a step in the right direction, though many say it is not enough.

–

Ana Delgado is STAND’s Middle East and North Africa Coordinator, focusing mainly on Syria. She is a junior at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, majoring in Political Science and Peace, War, and Defense.

Amala Karri is STAND’s Policy Intern and attends Hunter College High School in New York. She contributed STAND’s Burma Update for this week’s Education News Brief.

Jason Qu is STAND’s Emerging Conflicts Coordinator, focusing today on Yemen and Pakistan. He is a Senior at Bronx High School of Science.