Many of STAND’s conflict zones have been witness to progress towards peace; the first democratic elections in Burma were held in November, a ceasefire was declared between the South Sudanese government and opposition groups, and most recently, a UN Security Council Resolution called for a nationwide ceasefire in Syria. Several conflict zones have also seen more concerning developments; Russian airstrikes against Syria claimed the lives of hundreds of civilians, summary executions became a regular occurrence in Burundi, and attacks against Muslims mounted in the Central African Republic. As STAND enters another year of genocide prevention and continues to cover developments in our five conflict areas, we have compiled the landmark events of 2015 in each of our conflict zones.

This week, STAND’s Middle East and North Africa Conflict Coordinator, Maddie King, has prepared a rundown of the key events of 2015 related to the Syrian conflict.

Maddie King serves as STAND’s Middle East and North Africa Conflict Coordinator, and is a junior at Johns Hopkins University, where she is pursuing majors in International Studies and Global Environmental Change and Sustainability and a minor in Islamic Studies. She is passionate about addressing issues of refugee resettlement, particularly as they relate to the roots of displacement.

A Semester in Review

Many of STAND’s conflict zones have been witness to progress towards peace; the first democratic elections in Burma were held in November, a ceasefire was declared between the South Sudanese government and opposition groups, and most recently, a UN Security Council Resolution called for a nationwide ceasefire in Syria. Several conflict zones have also seen more concerning developments; Russian airstrikes against Syria claimed the lives of hundreds of civilians, summary executions became a regular occurrence in Burundi, and attacks against Muslims mounted in Central African Republic. As STAND enters another year of mass-atrocities prevention and continues to cover developments in areas where genocidal violence has persisted, we have compiled the landmark events of 2015 in each of our conflict zones.

Central and West Africa Conflict Coordinator Ruhi Bhaidani has compiled key developments in CAR beginning with a failed ceasefire deal in January, and ending with the December presidential election. 

Ruhi Bhaidani serves as Central and West Africa Conflict Coordinator, and has been a STAND member for over four years. As president of her high school’s STAND for Peace club, she organized a concert to draw attention to ongoing genocidal violence around the world. Ruhi is a freshman at the University of Chicago.

Many of STAND’s conflict zones have been witness to progress towards peace; the first democratic elections in Burma were held in November, a ceasefire was declared between the South Sudanese government and opposition groups, and most recently, a UN Security Council Resolution called for a nationwide ceasefire in Syria. Several conflict zones have also seen more concerning developments; Russian airstrikes against Syria claimed the lives of hundreds of civilians, summary executions became a regular occurrence in Burundi, and attacks against Muslims mounted in Central African Republic. As STAND enters another year of mass-atrocities prevention and continues to cover developments in areas where genocidal violence has persisted, we have compiled the landmark events of 2015 in each of our conflict zones.

STAND’s Southeast Asia Conflict Coordinator, Sophie Back, has produced a comprehensive overview of this semester’s developments in Burma.

Sophie Back serves as STAND’s Southeast Asia Conflict Coordinator, and is a third year student at University College London pursuing a degree in History and Political Science. An outspoken advocate for Amnesty International on campus, Sophie comes to STAND after spending the summer in Vietnam, where she led a team that organized workshops to prepare students for the implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community free trade area.

Many of STAND’s conflict zones have been witness to progress towards peace; the first democratic elections in Burma were held in November, a ceasefire was declared between the South Sudanese government and opposition groups, and most recently, a UN Security Council Resolution called for a nationwide ceasefire in Syria. Several conflict zones have also seen more concerning developments; Russian airstrikes against Syria claimed the lives of hundreds of civilians, summary executions became a regular occurrence in Burundi, and attacks against Muslims mounted in Central African Republic. As STAND enters another year of mass-atrocities prevention and continues to cover developments in areas where genocidal violence has persisted, we have compiled the landmark events of 2015 in each of our conflict zones.

To launch the first week of 2016, we begin with a summary of events in South Sudan and Sudan by Jason Qu.

Jason Qu serves as STAND’s Sudan and South Sudan Conflict Coordinator, and is a junior at the Bronx High School of Science. He is also Vice President of the Amnesty International chapter at his school, and is extensively involved in Model United Nations and the Muslim Student Association at Bronx Science.

Lindah Mogeni

President Nkurunziza’s government has expressed dissent over the African Union’s December 18 decision to deploy a 5000-strong African Prevention and Protection Mission (MAPROBU) peacekeeping force for a 6-month period. The peacekeeping force is tasked with civilian protection, prevention of the escalation of violence, and to foster conditions conducive to dialogue.

The Human Rights Council approved a motion for the United Nations Human Rights Commissioner to send a mission of experts to follow and report closely of the human rights situation in Burundi. The motion, which was adopted as a United Nations resolution, was additionally supported by Amnesty International as ‘an important first step.’ Emphasizing the need to focus on human rights violations, Amnesty International provided a written statement to the United Nations highlighting recent infringements on human rights in Burundi, including extrajudicial executions and torture.

Burundi’s government spokesman, Gervais Abayeho, asserted that Burundi ‘does not need a peacekeeping force and will not allow foreign troops in Burundi.’ The African Union has established a 96-hour deadline for the Burundi government to fully cooperate with and accept the deployment of the peacekeeping force, and has warned of its right to enforce its decision. The United Nations Security Council, noting the AU decision, has appealed to the Burundian government to cooperate fully and has urged African member states to contribute troops and police for the operation. The Security Council additionally called for East African states to expedite mediation efforts.

The United Nations Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, Adama Dieng, has expressed concern over the Burundi government and opposition’s manipulation of ethnic tensions through inflammatory propaganda, similar to that which preceded the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, which sought to pit Hutus and Tutsis against each other. Dieng warned the Security Council that Burundi may be on ‘the verge of a descent into violence that could escalate into atrocity crimes.’

The European Union has pledged $450,000 to support Uganda in a bid to accelerate inter-Burundian mediation talks and prevent further escalation of violence. According to Kristian Schmidt, Uganda was mandated by the EAC to initiate a constructive dialogue between the opposition and government.

Sudan: Darfur

Jason Qu

In Darfur’s Jebel Marra, the Sudanese Air Force launched a bombing raid on Fanga village, damaging property and killing livestock. On Sunday, December 13, rebel forces belonging to the Sudan Liberation Movement-Abdul Wahid (SLM-AW) attacked government forces in the same area and seized supplies of ammunition and weapons. Around the same time as the Sunday attack, the military spokesman for the SLM-AW, Mustafa Tambour, had also been detained, but this has yet to be confirmed by Khartoum. The SLM-AW, as well as other Darfuri rebel groups have been fighting the government for over a decade.

In a meeting with the African Union, the Foreign Minister of Sudan discussed the exit strategy of the UNAMID mission, a United Nations peacekeeping force of 20,000 in Darfur, which has been criticized by Khartoum. Tensions between the UN and UNAMID leadership have existed since the introduction of the mission in 2007. Recently, Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) Fatou Bensouda has criticized the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for failing to bring President Omar al-Bashir to the Hague to stand trial for war crimes in Darfur. The ICC issued its first warrant for al-Bashir’s arrest in 2009. The Security Council, bound by the veto power of China and Russia, is unlikely to call for his government to cooperate with the arrest warrant. The Security Council is the only body within the UN that has the power to force al-Bashir to appear at the Hague.

South Sudan

Jason Qu

Despite weeks of delays, and a row between President Kiir’s government and the opposition over the size of the SPLM-IO advance team to Juba, President Kiir has agreed to allow a team of 609 opposition figures to return to the capital. The advance team is a key prerequisite to the implementation of a transitional government as stipulated in the August peace agreement, and opposition leader Machar’s return to the capital. President Kiir and his ministers have raised no further objection to the size of the advance team, and the President has instructed state governors to prepare a warm reception for the team. Adhering to a Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC) timetable for the formation of a new transitional government, the team is scheduled to arrive in three parts: the first is to be composed of 150 SPLM-IO personnel, with the others arriving in two waves over the next two weeks. According to the timetable, a new government and transitional constitution must be formed and agreed upon by January 23.

Unconfirmed allegations of a government offensive in Western Equatoria state have surfaced, as much of South Sudan continues to be wrought by political instability and fighting despite a peace agreement being in place. The Arrow Boys militia have declared the occupation of certain areas of Western Equatoria and issued a “warning” to the government not to provoke further clashes with them. Elsewhere, Oguruny village of Eastern Equatoria State also saw clashes this week, but conflicting reports on exact casualties and the sequence of events exist, demonstrating the continued division between the government and rebel forces.

On December 15, the 2-year anniversary of the start of the South Sudanese Civil War, the UNSC renewed the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) mandate, deployed surveillance drones in the country, and sent additional peacekeepers, elevating their presence in South Sudan to 15,000 people. A new Human Rights Watch report detailed and asserted that over 16,000 children have participated in the armed conflict in some capacity, and has named specific rebel and government officials for prosecution due to their role in employing child soldiers. The SPLM-IO dismissed the report, and blamed the exploitation of child soldiers on the government. The SPLM-IO has also called for the international community to form a tribunal to prosecute members of the government who carried out war crimes throughout the conflict, despite an AU inquiry report asserting that both sides committed atrocities in the first year of the civil war.

Southeast Asia: Burma

Sophie Back

Hundreds of Rohingya refugees have disappeared from camps in northern Sumatra in recent weeks. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has expressed concern that human traffickers in the region are once again smuggling people into Malaysia. Thomas Vargas, the Indonesia representative for UNHCR, expressed his fears this week saying that “smugglers have already shown how completely they can disregard human life. So, obviously, we are very concerned when we see that this type of thing can happen again.”

This week, the second trial of smugglers Mohammad Jabar and Dahrani has begun. The pair are accused of taking a bribe to turn back, while attempting to traffic 25 (mostly Rohingya) migrants to Australia, in return for payment of 35 million rupiah ($3440) in July. The pair claim that they did not receive payment from Australian authorities to return to Indonesia, only a satellite phone and fuel. However, Amnesty International are treating the case as highly suspicious and investigations are ongoing regarding the potential involvement of Australian officials in trafficking.

Police powers to use force and bear arms against crime suspects have been expanded this week amid security concerns. Under a new bill, which was passed on December 16, police will be able to use military-grade weapons previously reserved for riots in territories where rebel militia groups are operating. However, this additional fire power may carry the risk of escalating hostilities in unstable regions.

Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) from across Burma have called greater inclusion in the political dialogue in Burma’s peace process, as set out in the framework drafting process which concluded this week. Daw Khon Ja, coordinator of the Kachin Peace Network, urged the government to involve more members of ethnic minority groups in the decision-making process. Speaking at a meeting in Yangon, Daw said “The political dialogue is a Union-level conference and it is very important for the country. The government should prepare who will participate in the political dialogue. We are worried about the current framework and we will try to get more seats.” This could well be a powerful step forward in Burma’s peaceful democratic transition.

Lindah Mogeni

A spate of ADF attacks have killed 24 people in Eringeti, in Beni territory of North Kivu. Two days after the attack, the civil society in the neighboring town of Oicha declared three days of mourning and reflection against insecurity, and protested the killings. Business activities in Beni territory were suspended as part of the mourning. Further, Oicha health zone’s nursing staff also suspended their services after sending a memorandum to North Kivu’s provincial governor urging political and military authorities to neutralize ADF.

After condemning the ADF attacks earlier last week, head of MONUSCO Maman Sidikou called for joint efforts by the Congolese government and MONUSCO as well as resumed cooperation between FARDC and MONUSCO that had been suspended in early February owing to alleged human rights violations committed by 2 FARDC generals. Maman Sidikou expressed that it was a ‘common duty’ of the Congolese government, FARDC and MONUSCO ‘to further reassure the population.’

Military observers from the African Union are on the ground in Burundi assessing the situation. Addressing the BBC, United Nations special adviser on genocide Adama Dieng expressed that Burundi is witnessing ‘a clear manipulation of ethnicity by both the government and opposition’. Further, the country’s journalists and activists are fleeing mostly to the countryside in fear of being killed.

In the wake of the escalating violence in Burundi, the United Nations has warned of a possible genocide given Burundi’s similar ethnic makeup to neighboring Rwanda and the 2003-2006 civil war fueled by Hutu and Tutsi tensions that incurred a death toll of an estimated 200,000 people. However, Burundi’s government spokesman William Nyamitwe insists that Hutus and Tutsis are living in harmony, and dismisses the threat of civil war or genocide, claiming the source of violence to be ‘only a small group disturbing the peace with night time attacks.’

South Sudan

Jason Qu

A deadline of December 11 for the city’s reception of the first advance team, has once again been delayed to an undetermined date. An advance team, comprised of opposition figures and armed personnel, has been requested by the opposition and stipulated in the August peace agreement. The stipulation is a prerequisite for Riek Machar, leader of the SPLM-IO, to return to the capital, after leaving in 2013 when civil war broke out. The delay was due to a row between Juba and the opposition regarding the size of the advance team. The government claimed that the number of SPLM/A-IO personnel planned to enter the city would pose logistical challenges and a security risk. Furthermore, Juba has said that they would prefer to see a team of 30 opposition figures to negotiate a transitional government, claiming that so large an advance team was unnecessary and unsolicited by the peace agreement. The opposition has criticized this new demand by the government, claiming that President Kiir has purposely been obstructing peace negotiations.

Fighting has intensified in Yambio, the capital of Western Equatoria, where the SPLA and rebel groups including the Arrow Boys militia, have engaged in heavy clashes. The fighting has caused over a thousand civilians to flee from Western Equatoria to the Democratic Republic of Congo. At least five people have died, including a policeman and two civilians, in clashes that lasted three days before SPLA forces pushed the rebels out of the city. In Upper Nile State, the SPLM/A-IO has accused the government of launching airstrikes on rebel opposition groups, and of breaking the disengagement agreement set by the August peace deal. In Eastern Equatoria, a new rebel group, the South Sudan Armed Forces (SSAF) have seized an army base from the SPLA in Logiro, a strategic village in the state. Amid new offensives between the rebels and SPLA in Wau county in Western Bahr el Ghazal state, thousands have fled, taking shelter in clinics and schools. In spite of this fighting, the SPLA has released over 13 rebel prisoners of war, in what the government has claimed to be a recommitment to peace in the country.

Sudan: Darfur

Jason Qu

In the wake of the collapse of the 10th round of peace talks between the SPLM-N, a key rebel group in Sudan and Khartoum, fighting continues to rage in Blue Nile State, one of Sudan’s most troubled regions. The talks, which were held in Addis Ababa, failed to secure an agreement due to a number of reasons, but primarily over the issue of humanitarian aid, with the SPLM-N demanding a humanitarian ceasefire with international aid being delivered to areas of conflict, while Khartoum asserted they would only allow for the delivery of Sudanese aid, fearing rebels would use international aid routes to smuggle weapons. Over seven Sudanese Army soldiers had been killed in one ambush in Blue Nile on Monday, according to unconfirmed rebel accounts. Despite new clashes and climbing fears of full-scale conflict, the SPLM-N and Khartoum have agreed to hold informal talks in Addis Ababa, a week from December 8, in order to revive discussions.

Intercommunal violence and land disputes have dramatically increased in Darfur this harvest season, in part due to the reduced rainfall and heightened competition over arable land. The reduced rainfall has forced herders to graze their cattle outside of their property, drawing them into conflict with other landowners. Two farmers from the Central Darfur Committee for the Protection of the Agricultural Season and Peaceful Coexistence were shot by herders who had been asked to leave their farmlands in Bindisi. In Central Darfur, farmers have claimed that herders had launched attacks on them, and forcibly released their livestock on farmlands. The Rizeigat and Misseriya tribes have engaged in clashes in South Darfur, resulting in 17 deaths and many injuries, after Misseriya herders had allegedly encroached on Rizeigat farms. The Sudanese military had been deployed in response to these intercommunal clashes.

Southeast Asia: Burma

Sophie Back

This week, leader of the newly elected National League for Democracy (NLD) Aung San Suu Kyi met with Burmese chief peace negotiator Aung Min, to discuss the future of the peace process with Burma’s armed ethnic groups. Following this meeting, Burma’s 15 ethnic armed groups agreed to form a committee for negotiations with the incoming NLD administration to discuss the implementation of the National Cease-fire Agreement (NCA) which was signed by eight insurgent groups on October 15.

However, the future of peace remains unclear, as fighting between insurgent groups and government troops has intensified in Kachin State in Northern Burma following weeks of air attacks and violent clashes which have displaced over 10,000 thousand people since October. Though the ceasefire has been successfully established in some areas, the Burmese government has not yet removed any of its troops from stabilized areas due to doubts over the militias’ commitment to the peace process.

Concerns over the Burmese’s government’s use of violence against the Rohingya are growing following the fatal shooting of Maung Maung, a 25-year-old onion trader from Rakhine State by Border Guard Police (BGP) border security forces in Buthidaung, Rakhine State on December 7. The shooting has sparked protests this week in which eleven Rohingya groups have condemned the government’s inhumane treatment of Muslim minority groups.  

The Myanmar Times reported that the 12 men have been arrested for allegedly training with a group that state prosecutors have called the “Myanmar Muslim Army.” However, security experts have stated that there is virtually no evidence to prove the existence of this organization. The men, who are aged between 19 and 54 years old, have been issued with five year prison sentences and are charged under section 5J of the Emergency Provisions Act, due to the government’s belief that they threaten to “affect the morality or conduct of the public in a way that would undermine the security of the Union.” Human Rights Watch and Fortify Rights are demanding their immediate release.

Fortify Rights also called on the Burmese government this Friday to drop its charges against six men who involved in printing a calendar which expressed support for the country’s persecuted Rohingya Muslim communities. The men are facing up to two years in prison, and are a key priority of an international campaign led by human rights groups such as Fortify Rights and Amnesty International. The campaign calls for the release of all of Burma’s political prisoners as part of the democratic transition.

Lindah Mogeni

In the wake of ADF attacks in Eringeti, Beni territory of North Kivu that left 24 dead, the neighboring town of Oicha in Beni territory declared three days of mourning, reflection against insecurity and protest against the killings starting from December 1, two days after the attack, in which business activities in Beni territory were suspended. Further, Oicha health zone’s nursing staff also suspended their services after sending a memorandum to North Kivu’s provincial governor urging political and military authorities to neutralize ADF.

After condemning the ADF attacks earlier last week, head of MONUSCO Maman Sidikou reiterated the need for joint efforts by the Congolese government and MONUSCO as well as resumed cooperation between FARDC and MONUSCO that had been suspended in early February owing to alleged human rights violations committed by two FARDC generals. Maman Sidikou expressed that it was a ‘common duty’ of the Congolese government, FARDC and MONUSCO ‘to further reassure the population.’ Military observers from the African Union are on the ground in Burundi assessing the situation. Addressing the BBC, United Nations special adviser on genocide Adama Dieng expressed that Burundi is witnessing ‘a clear manipulation of ethnicity by both the government and opposition’. Further, the country’s journalists and activists are fleeing mostly to the countryside in fear of being killed.

In the wake of the escalating violence in Burundi, the United Nations has warned of a possible genocide given Burundi’s similar ethnic makeup to neighboring Rwanda and the 2003-2006 civil war fueled by Hutu and Tutsi tensions that incurred a death toll of an estimated 200,000 people. However, Burundi’s government spokesman William Nyamitwe has reassured that Hutus and Tutsis are living and harmony and dismisses the perceived threat of civil war or genocide, claiming the source of violence to be ‘only a small group disturbing the peace with night time attacks.’

Middle East and North Africa: Syria

Maddie King

A recent report by an international security firm called the Soufan Group indicates that the number of foreign fighters from Western Europe who have joined ISIS in the last year has more than doubled, reaching more than 30,000, a figure consistent with current U.S. intelligence estimates. This report identifies the risk these fighters pose for European nations, indicating that many of these fighters intend to return to their country of origin. Indeed, European nations continue to prioritize the dismantlement  of ISIS as a matter of national security. On Friday, German lawmakers voted to send 1,200 troops, reconnaissance planes, a frigate and midair refueling capacity to support the growing international coalition fighting against the Islamic State in Syria.

While congressional measures to limit refugee flow from Syria and Iraq failed in Washington, public opinion in the United States remains divided. After a shooting in San Bernadino, California by a couple who had pledged allegiance to the Islamic State on Facebook (though evidence of potential ties with foreign terrorist groups remain under investigation), Presidential candidate Donald Trump called for the United States to bar all Muslims from entering the United States. His words were met with widespread disapproval from other candidates and political leaders, though his popularity amongst his supporters remains strong.

In terms of diplomatic developments, the United States continues to emphasize their prioritization of the removal of Assad from power and the need for a diplomatic end to the Syrian war as an essential part of the fight to stop terrorists. U.S. Secretary of State, John Kerry, spoke on Thursday to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, stating that if the international community “were able to secure…political resolution” dependent on the resignation of Assad, a coalition of international forces could deploy ground forces and defeat ISIS “in a matter of literally months”. However, Russia and Iran continue to perpetuate their allegiance and loyalty to Assad. Russian forces have assumed command of a military airport in central Syria, using it as a base for its fighter jets and as air support for Syrian regime forces moving north from Palmyra, two miles south. Furthermore, on Monday Russia called for the United Nations Security Council to hold private discussions on Turkey’s military involvement in Syria and Iraq. The discussions come in response to Iraq’s accusations toward Turkey of violating its sovereignty after Turkey deployed a contingent of heavily armed troops near the front line of Mosul last week.

Turkey has deployed armed troops to Mosul

This incident occurs in light of the rising tensions between Russian and Turkish governments after Turkey struck down a Russian jet near the Turkish-Syrian border on November 24. Mounting tensions between Russia and Turkey, with whom the United States frequently works in tandem, will likely continue to play a role in limiting cooperation between the two nations as well in the issue of Assad’s future role in Syria.

The meeting of Syrian opposition groups set to begin Wednesday in Saudi Arabia marks the largest effort to unify opponents of al-Assad in hopes of achieving a political solution to the conflict. Representatives from 65 political and armed groups, including the powerful Islamist rebel factions Jaish al-Islam and Ahrar al-Sham are set to participate in the meeting, despite Ahrar al-Sham’s association with the al-Nusra Front, an al-Qaida affiliate. Groups representing Syrian Kurdish rebels, who have received support from the United States and have been a successful ground force in the fight against ISIS have not been invited to speak at this summit due to objections from the Turkish government who deemed the YPG and other Kurdish nationalist organizations a branch of the Kurdistan Workers Party which is listed as a terrorist organization in Turkey. Kurdish groups have instead scheduled their own conference in the Syrian city of Hassekeh where they continue to emphasize their desire for the decentralization of the Syrian state and national determination for the Kurdish people.

Internal documents leaked to the Guardian this week have revealed further insight into ISIS’ goals and intentions. This document sheds light on frequent misconceptions that have limited international success in dealing with ISIS, emphasizing that the group is not simply a terrorist group, according to Harvard professor Stephen M. Walt, but also a “revolutionary state-building organization,” seeking to establish successful civil service, regional government departments, foreign policy and centralized economic control in Syria and Iraq. While ISIS receives most attention for its extremist ideology and commitment to brutal violence, they are equally committed to matters such as health, education, commerce, communications and jobs, and ultimately aim to create a legitimate country rooted in fundamentalist theology. Another report released today by Amnesty International, explores the role that the poorly regulated arms trades in Syria and Iraq have contributed to the mass atrocities committed by ISIS who have “unprecedented access to firepower.” The reports indicate that ISIS uses arms and ammunition from at least 25 different countries, the bulk of which have been seized from or leaked out of Iraqi military stocks which were provided by the US and Russia through various oil barter agreements or NATO donations. Patrick Wilcken, Researcher on Arms Control, Security Trade and Human Rights at Amnesty International hopes that the “consequences of reckless arm transfers to Iraq and Syria and their subsequent capture by ISIS [will] be a wake-up call to arms exporters around the world… that arms export risk assessments and mitigation measures to unstable regions require long term, root-and-branch analysis which must include assessing if military and security units are capable of effectively controlling stockpiles and abide by international human rights and humanitarian standards.”

South Sudan

Jason Qu

Despite a ceasefire being in place and considerable amounts of international pressure on the parties to the civil war in South Sudan, fighting and violence continue to threaten the weak and fragile peace agreement concluded on August. Renewed fighting in Western Equatoria State between the SPLA and the Arrow Boys militia has sent thousands of people fleeing into the Democratic Republic of Congo. The rebels have also accused the government of ceasefire violations and the targeting of civilians in Western Bahr el-Ghazal State, which would also result in the deaths of four SPLA soldiers. In addition, the South Sudanese Army are alleged to have  committed atrocities in Magwi County of Eastern Equatoria State, including acts of rape against civilians, according to the SPLM-IO. In light of a rapidly deteriorating security situation in the country, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon has called for an increased deployment of 600 UN police and 500 UN peacekeepers to protect civilians, at the same time that the UN and other members of the international community have declared the peace agreement was at a critical juncture.

The SPLM-IO advance team that was set to arrive in Juba on December 1, a prerequisite to the return of former Vice President and SPLM-IO leader Riek Machar, has now been delayed once more. There have been other obstacles to starting the period of transitional government as stipulated in the August peace agreement, such as Juba’s disagreements with the opposition over the exact size, asserting that only around 10% of the 550-man team the SPLM-IO nominated will be allowed to assimilate into national institutions.he government has also demanded that each member of the advance team provide a detailed biography for examination. Nevertheless, the advance team has once again been stalled and the SPLM-IO has yet to announce a new deadline , though the opposition personnel are expected to enter South Sudan’s capital by late December 2015 or early January 2016.

Sudan: Darfur

Jason Qu

As peace talks crumbled in Addis Ababa last week between the SPLM-N and the Sudanese Government, with both sides trading accusations over the failure of the talks. With the conclusion of the rainy season allowing unobstructed travel on roads, there are renewed fears of full-scale conflict in the country’s Blue Nile and South Kordofan State, as well as the Darfur region. The Sudanese Armed Forces have reportedly moved men, ammunition, and vehicles into portions of Blue Nile States, including 6,000 new troops. The Armed Forces are under the direction of the Minister of Defense Awad Ibn Auf who has restated a commitment to removing the presence of rebel forces in key areas.. The SPLM-N have also declared their intention to protect their military positions in South from an anticipated, renewed offensive, and the rebels have begun rearming and amassing military resources as well. In South Kordofan, the SPLM-N have declared that they had killed 9 Sudanese soldiers in defense against a government advance, but this could not be independently verified.

The security situation in Darfur is rapidly degenerating, as intercommunal conflict continues to claim lives and threaten peace in the region. The Justice and Equality Movement, a major rebel group, has also accused the government of backing militias that launched attacks on villages in North Darfur on December 3rd. In addition, villagers in North Darfur have accused Abbala militiamen of using machine guns and 23 vehicles to raid, torch, and loot over a dozen villages in the area, in a series of attacks that spanned two days, from December 3 to 4, leaving at least four dead and six abducted, according to eyewitness reports. The Sudanese rebel group, the Sudan Liberation Movement-Minni Minawi have stated that these militiamen are paramilitaries of the Sudanese Army’s Rapid Support Forces, and that the SLM-MM will continue to have a presence in the region to “protect civilians.” A dispute over cattle theft left three dead in Central Darfur’s Um Dukhun on December 3, one of many examples of brutal conflict between pastoral and farming tribes.

Southeast Asia: Burma

Sophie Back

This Friday delegates from over 20 countries and international organizations met in Bangkok for the second Special Meeting on Irregular Migration in the Indian Ocean to discuss a framework to resolve the regional threat of human trafficking. In his opening address at the summit, Thai Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai announced “This problem is not a short-lived one. It will not simply go away.”

The monsoon season, which had deterred trafficking across the Bay of Bengal, is now over and it is feared that human traffickers will resume their work in the new ‘sailing season’ (October to January). The summit seeks to prevent a repeat of the horrors that were witnessed in last year’s surge in trafficking and illegal migration in the region. Its approach will be to design comprehensive and sustainable solution based on the expansion of migrants’ rights through legal channels. Chris Lewa, a representative of the Arakan Project, which monitors migration across the Bay of Bengal, noted that since the crackdown on trafficking in the region earlier this year “the boats are no longer passing through Thailand… all the boats so far are landing directly in Malaysia. Everything has changed up”. A new strategy will be needed to tackle the increasingly lucrative smuggling trade.  An estimated 95,000 people have risked their lives in making the passage across the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea since 2014, over 1,100 people have died at sea and hundreds more have been found buried in unmarked mass graves on the shores of Thailand and Malaysia. Since September, 1,000 people have crossed these dangerous waters and members of the summit see this relatively quiet period as the optimum time to strike at the trafficking networks which have given way to a multi-million dollar trade in human lives, involving senior officials and known criminals across Southeast Asia.

A report presented to the summit by United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) called for a more coordinated search and rescue program, more predictable disembarkation measures to manage the settlement of migrants in refugee camps and greater commitment to ensuring the safety of camp residents. The paper emphasized the need for improved access to health services, education and work for refugees, and illustrated the mutual benefits, for states and migrants, of granting short-term work permits to refugees. Finally the report advocated for advanced screening methods to identify and care for vulnerable groups such as victims of trafficking, women, and children under particular threat from human rights violations in the camps. According to the IOM, more than 1,900 migrants from Myanmar and Bangladesh live in shelters and immigration detention centers in the region.  While these people remain the top priority of the international coalition against human trafficking, this week has marked a decisive shift towards tackling the long-term implications of the migrant crisis.  

Ruhi Bhaidani

Recent violence in Batangafo, Ouham Province has left property damaged, 10 people killed and many others injured. Batangafo hosts the Central African Republic’s largest internally displaced persons (IDP) camp where over 30,000 people reside. The damage inflicted at Batangafo included the burning of 730 shelters at the IDP site. The outbreak at Batangafo caused thousands of individuals to flee for  international NGOs, MINUSCA, and other public buildings. Another recent attack occurred at Ouaka Province in Bambari which left three people dead and injured and displaced 30 people. The violence is just part of a set of recent outbreaks in the nation. Aurélien Agbénonc, the UN Humanitarian Coordinator in CAR released a press release stating “I condemn all attacks causing deaths and injuries among the civilian population, and reminded all parties involved that the indiscriminate attack against civilians is a war crime.” According to Agbénonc and UN reports, the prolonged violence in the Central African Republic has led to more humanitarian needs in the nation as well as to more refugees and IDPs produced by the conflict. Until the recent violence, the UN estimated that CAR had an internally displaced population estimated at 399,000 people, while almost 460,000 were refugees in neighboring countries.

Ouaka Province in CAR

New and extremely violent tactics of militant groups in CAR have been noted as well. Christian militias have been accused of burning “witches” at the stake according to a recent UN report. The militias would kidnap Muslims whom they accused of witchcraft, tied them to stakes, and then burnt them alive. This is not the first case of witch-burnings in CAR. similar burnings occurred between December 2014 and early 2015 under the guidance of Christian “anti-balaka” militia. The aforementioned UN report documented this finding with images of charred bodies and victims tied to wooden stakes. UN investigators claim that the Christian rebels had used witchcraft motivated by extortion of money. The report documents victims being forced at gunpoint to pay between 20,000 and 50,000 Central African Francs in bribes to avoid being accused of witchcraft.

Pope Francis greeted authorities from the region and schoolgirls at a heavily guarded Bangui airport for the final leg of his trip across Kenya, Uganda, and CAR. During his visit, Pope Francis encouraged the nation to disarm and reconcile, pointing to the upcoming elections as an opportunity for the nation to “serenely begin a new phase of its history.” The Pope called on the people of CAR to recognize their “unity in diversity”, and stated, “It’s about living and building from the marvelous diversity of the world around us, avoiding the temptation of fearing the other, of what is unfamiliar, of those who don’t belong to our ethnic group, our political choices or political confession.” Pope Francis’ visit occurred despite security fears and sought to inspire hope and reconciliation among Central Africans. The United States’ Secretary of State, John Kerry also sent a message to CAR congratulating the nation on their National Day celebration on December 1, 2015.

Yet, even after the Pope left, violence has continued. A Muslim man was killed the day after Pope Francis’ visit to CAR. The Pope’s visit prompted many Muslims to venture through the Christian no-man’s land to hear the Pope speak. According to Ibrahim Hassan Frede, a spokesperson for the Coordination of Central African Muslim Associations, “This morning there was a Muslim who wanted to head out of the enclave. He was intercepted. His body was carried to the mosque.” This killing could be telling of serious future conflicts, and according to Lewis Mudge, an Africa researcher with Human Rights Watch, “On the heels of the pope’s visit, what we’ve just seen at the mosque is a lot of anger. They think this is a provocation. I think we’re still in a situation that could spiral out of control.”

Great Lakes of Africa: Burundi and Democratic Republic of the Congo

Lindah Mogeni

United States President Barack Obama joined the African Union and European Union by issuing an Executive Order to impose sanctions against participants in the current violence in Burundi. The sanctions include freezing assets and visa restrictions on Burundians who are ‘undermining peace in the country.’

Maman Sambo Sidikou, Special Representative of the UN Secretary General in DRC, strongly condemned the simultaneous attacks on a MONUSCO base, a PNC (Congolese National Police) position, a FARDC (Congolese Army) position and a local hospital by ADF rebels in Eringeti, Beni territory in Eastern DRC’s North Kivu province. The UNHCR representative in DRC, Jose Maria Aranaz also condemned the attacks and reiterated Maman Sambo Sidikou’s assertion that MONUSCO will be adamant in its efforts to help ensure civilian protection.

The attacks, which occurred on November 29, elicited violent clashes between the ADF and the FARDC and resulted in a death toll of 24 people as revealed by the spokesman of the UN Mission in DRC, Felix Prosper Basse, though he stated that certain information was yet to be verified.

FARDC was able to regain control of Eringeti after several hours of tense fighting. Among the confirmed dead include 11 ADF rebels, 4 Congolese soldiers, 7 civilians and 1 MONUSCO peacekeeper.

Approximately 2000 residents of Eringeti fled attacks and subsequent clashes between the Allied Democratic Forces, a Ugandan rebel group, and UN and local allied forces. Many of the residents took refuge in Luna, Ido, and Komanda, each of which are located in neighboring Ituri province. Komanda’s civil society president, Daniel Sezabo, has expressed concern over the ‘uncontrolled movement’ of the displaced and urges people to be alert to possible infiltration by ADF rebels.

Middle East and North Africa: Syria

Maddie King

Western officials continue to face difficulty as they prioritize the search for political solutions to the conflict in Syria. Presidents Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama met on multiple occasions during the COP21 climate summit in Paris to discuss solutions in Syria. Reports indicate that the two leaders will attempt to compile a list to formally identify and differentiate between extremist groups and legitimate political opposition. While Russia has reaffirmed their commitment to coordinate with the United States diplomatically and militarily in fighting ISIS in the region, there remain many challenges to attaining international consensus. Putin has referred to last week’s downing of a Russian fighter jet by Turkey as a “treacherous stab in the back” accusing the Turkish government of attempting to protect the state’s illegal imports of Islamic State produced oil. At the same time, members of the Obama administration have accused the Syrian government of purchasing oil for ISIS as well, blacklisting Syrian and Russian businessmen suspected of facilitating these transactions. This action highlights the critical obstacle between Russian and American cooperation, the role of Assad in the future of Syria. While Russia continues to coordinate military force with Assad’s army and conduct diplomatic meetings, the Obama administration remains consistent in their opposition to any degree of complicity in Assad’s regime. Furthermore, US officials have concerns around the heavy civilian casualties of the Russian airstrikes that may impede coordination efforts.

In Syria, this week the al-Qaida-affiliated al-Nusra Front attacked posts in Aleppo belonging to Jaish al-Thuwwar, an Arab rebel group allied with the Syrian Democratic Forces and backed by the United States, leaving 23 fighters dead. A Russian airstrike on a market in the northern rebel held town of Ariha last Sunday killed at least 18 people, with some reports indicating casualties as high as 40, with 70 others wounded. On Thursday, more than 50 American troops arrived in northern Syria to assist in training Kurdish YPG forces (a newly created Kurdish coalition including the PYD) in launching offenses against ISIS in Jarablus and Raqqa. The US also plans to resume heavy American-led coalition airstrikes. Saleh Muslim, leader of the  PYD, another Kurdish militia group, has released a statement demanding representation at the Syrian opposition conference organized by Saudi Arabia scheduled for next month.

South Sudan

Jason Qu

Despite initial confusion regarding the return of ex-detainees and opposition figures to Juba due to conflicting reports on their travel arrangements from the South Sudanese Government and their host nations, opposition politicians and exiled SPLM members have returned to the capital after two years of exile, including Rebecca Nyandeng de Mabior, the wife of John Garang de Mabior, the late founder of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement. This is in accordance with measures in the security arrangements agreed upon by the government and opposition in late October of 2015. Many of those who have returned plan to join and support the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Committee (JMEC) in the implementation of the peace agreement, notably Rebecca Nyandeng de Mabior. The Committee headed by Festus Mogae, former President of Botswana had taken over the role of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in overseeing the implementation of the peace agreement in South Sudan.

A conference regarding the implementation of the August Peace Agreement was held on Friday, November 28 between the government in Juba and the SPLM/A-IO. It was also attended by ex-detainees and opposition figures that have returned to Juba, but the return of Riek Machar is still something that has yet to be determined due to lingering concerns from the opposition regarding security which has been reiterated by Festus Mogae, the head of the JMEC. First scheduled to take place on November 23, this conference was postponed twice before being called off for an indefinite period of time. Community Empowerment for Progress Organization, a civil society organization in South Sudan, has been an outspoken critic of the postponement, citing a lack of commitment by both sides and international parties to achieve peace in the country. Mogae added that the peace deal could be at risk of collapse as the deadline for the formation of a transitional government was not met and fighting continues to rage and intensify in Unity State. This concern has been restated by the Troika (Norway, the United States, and the United Kingdom) which has asserted that a failure to effectively implement the agreement could cause a worsening of an already volatile political atmosphere and humanitarian situation in the country.

Despite a peace deal between the South Sudanese government and opposition groups, this week has been witness to a continuing trend of ceasefire violations and violence in South Sudan. On November 25, SPLA air raids carried out using helicopter gunships on a SPLA-IO garrison in Mundri County of Western Equatoria State, killed two top rebel commanders, Brigadier General Tito Biel Chuor and Brigadier General Charles. SPLM/A-IO Brigadier General Nyagwal Ajak Deng claims that a separate air raid on Kaka is part of a series of ceasefire violations that are undermining peace efforts in the country. In Eastern Equatoria, where an ambush on a bus travelling the Juba-Nimule Highway left 7 dead on November 19, the SPLA has launched an offensive on an opposition-controlled camp, with the government accusing these rebels of carrying out the ambush on the bus. A sense of calm has been restored to the area, and the opposition has continually denied these allegations.

On November 27, the SPLM-IO elected Secretary-General Dr. Dhieu Mathok Diing Wol to head the opposition. Wol has reaffirmed his support for the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Committee and the implementation of the peace agreement throughout South Sudan. He has held a number of meetings in recent weeks within the opposition to discuss the implementation of the agreement. This development comes as the JMEC was received by the African Union for the first time and received AU support for the implementation of the peace agreement.

An Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) team has asserted that a considerable number of displaced and aid-reliant people could face famine and “catastrophic” conditions when the dry season begins in January. The World Food Programme, the UN’s premier agency to combat hunger, has released statements that almost four million South Sudanese continue to face hunger and over 30,000 in Unity State are facing starvation. Fighting in this volatile part of South Sudan has made the delivery of vital food aid difficult. In response to worsening conditions, the UK and China have respectively contributed an additional 20 million pounds and 5 million dollars to help alleviate conditions in the country. Amid a deteriorating security situation, aid agencies are also find it difficult to provide much-needed services due to a large surge in robberies and seizures of goods and equipment, especially after those at Nile Hope, a charity in South Sudan, had been held at gunpoint and robbed on November 23rd.

Officials have confirmed that the SPLA has withdrawn from Juba as part of agreed security arrangements, and plans to demilitarize the city and institute a joint SPLA/SPLA-IO force to provide security. As part of the August agreement, 250 soldiers have left for Magiri, an area outside of the city lines. According to the SPLA, this withdrawal will continue until the conditions of the agreement are fully met, which calls for a joint force of 4,380 troops in Juba. As these troops are re-deploying, the SPLA-IO have declared that despite initial demands over an opposition to a constitutional amendment over the creation of 18 new states in the country, beginning on Tuesday, they are going to send a long-awaited 550-man advance team of key opposition leaders and personnel, a prerequisite to the return of Riek Machar to Juba. Machar has consistently put off his return to Juba due to concerns over his security.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has requested to deploy 1,100 new peacekeepers to South Sudan amid a new crucial phase in the implementation of peace, fear of new atrocities, and escalating violence in the country. Charles Kisanga, former Minister of Information of Western Equatoria has been named the head of the South Sudan People’s Patriotic Front, a newly formed rebel group mainly composed of the Arrow Boys militia in Western Equatoria. They have vowed to overthrow what they call a “tribal regime” in regards to controversy surrounding Kiir and allegations that from the beginning of the crisis, he has worked to empower the Dinka Tribe of which he belongs to in the political structure of the nation. This could risk new instability in Western Equatoria, despite the peace agreement signed last week between the government and key rebel factions in the area. Kisanga has also stated that he will seek an alliance with the SPLM-IO. Despite rising tensions and increased risk for violence through events such as this, Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon’s call for more peacekeepers has been contested by some in Juba as being unnecessary and potentially harmful to the peace process by introducing more armed personnel to the country, and that in order for peace to succeed, the peace agreement needs to be given time to be effectively implemented.

Sudan: Darfur

Jason Qu

Despite initial optimism by the African Union and other entities when the SPLM-North (SPLM-N) and Khartoum agreed to hold a tenth round of talks in Addis Ababa to discuss the implementation of a humanitarian cessation of hostilities and a comprehensive peace agreement, the talks have unfortunately stalled and collapsed, with the United Nations Security Council reaffirming calls for a ceasefire in Blue Nile and South Kordofan State. There were key divergences in the conversations as both sides have traded accusations and blame for the failure of the talks, such as over the issue of delivering of humanitarian aid with Khartoum refusing to allow cross-border aid from Kenya and Ethiopia in favor of domestic assistance, a key demand of the SPLM-N. Also, the issue of a political framework to use in reaching a final resolution has been a major sticking point, with Khartoum stating that they will continue to use the conditions stated in the Doha Document for Peace in Darfur even though the rebels want a new political framework.

In light of the failure of these talks, the AU has announced December 7th as the date for a preparatory meeting for the national dialogue conference, launched by Khartoum to find political solutions to grievances in the country, which had been boycotted by almost every political opposition and rebel group in Sudan, due to a lack of trust of Sudan President al-Bashir’s Government. The Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF), an umbrella organization of major rebel groups, including the SPLM-N, has stated that they intend to attend the preparatory meeting. The participation of other groups like Sudan Liberation Movement-Minnawi (SLM-N) is still in question due to a split in SRF leadership last month and the sentencing to death of 18 of its member. The release of prisoners of war remains a primary demand of rebel groups that is supported by the African Union to facilitate peacemaking in Sudan.

Intercommunal clashes continue to sweep parts of Sudan as the harvest season heightens tensions between tribes as well as between farmers and herder militias. Two have died and 16 have been wounded in a clashes as a result of disputes over agricultural land in the Northern State. There have been ongoing allegations from farmers in North Darfur that armed militiamen continue to attack them, primarily over disputes regarding crop damage by grazing livestock. In an attack by the militia of the Abbala tribe on November 23, one farmer was shot, and 25 women and other farmers were allegedly assaulted. On November 27, three farmers were killed by cattle herders in two separate altercations in Darfur. In East Darfur, a herder killed two farmers after they attempted to take a flock of sheep as compensation for damage they caused to their crops after venturing onto their property. In South Darfur, an eyewitness reported that a farmer had been killed after an altercation with a herder who wanted to seize his crops. In another incident in South Darfur, after a group of farmers attempted to chase away a herd of camels, the owners opened fire on them, killing farmer Ahmed Ibrahim Mohamed Hamid. These incidents are a trend in a continuous cycle of intercommunal violence in parts of Sudan, which have claimed many lives and continue to threaten regional stability.

The ceasefire declared by Khartoum and rebel groups under the Sudan Revolutionary Front appears to be crumbling in the face of possible military escalation. Amid stalled peace talks, the Sudanese Army has declared that they are raising the state of alert in areas of conflict in Darfur, Blue Nile, and South Kordofan, as well as their intention to seize SPLM-N and other rebel strongholds and supply lines in the area. The Army has confirmed that they will be deploying more security forces throughout the country, in order to capture contested areas and intervene in tribal conflicts, especially in these three regions, which could undermine the ceasefires and tilt the country back into full-scale war. This also comes after a report by an eyewitness in Darfur’s East Jebel Marra that a Sudanese aircraft had dropped seven bombs in the area, seriously injuring a civilian woman.

Southeast Asia: Burma

Sophie Back

Violence in eastern Burma is ongoing with violent clashes between the military and local militant groups. The conflict has uprooted more than 10,000 people since October 6, and reports published this week claim that the Burmese army has been involved in bombing schools and Buddhist temples, firing on civilians and raping women.

This week South-East Asia director of the World Health Organisation (WHO), Poonam Khetrapal Singh spoke out about physical and sexual violence, which affects 1 in 3 women in Southeast Asia. The director stressed the importance of this issue in relation to poverty reduction, peace and security and the dangers faced by refugees in particular.  November 25 marked the beginning of a 16-day campaign against gender-based violence themed ‘prevention’ between now and Human Rights Day, on December 10. The campaign is backed by the UN Framework on Preventing Violence against Women, which was launched on Wednesday. Victims of rape, abuse and forced marriage among displaced Rohingya communities in Burma and its neighbouring countries will be a key priority of this new initiative.

In Kathmandu, Nepal, Rohingya refugees have been staging sit-in protests since October 27 outside UNHCR headquarters in a plea for fairer treatment of refugees by the international community. The protesters claim that life in Nepal has become unbearable since the refugee agency cut subsistence allowances for refugees by 25 percent in recent weeks, to just 55 U.S. dollars a month. In January 2016, the allowances will be scrapped completely, and refugees will be left to fend for themselves. The global refugee crisis is placing an added strain on the UNHCR operations and funding is desperately needed to protect Southeast Asia’s vulnerable refugees.

On Wednesday, Burmese police officials arrested publisher Kyaw Kyaw Wai and 4 of his employees in Yangon for publishing a calendar which expressed solidarity with Burma’s Rohingya communities and rebuked the government’s claim that ‘Rohingya’ is not a legitimate ethnic group in Burma. The calendar caused outrage among hard-core Buddhist nationalists who fear the ‘Islamization’ of Burma and the police reacted by arresting those involved for causing “fear or alarm to the public.” The men are currently facing prison sentences of up to two years as prisoners of conscience.

Lindah Mogeni

Bujumbura has witnessed a few days of calm since the forced disarmament and weapons seizure wherein 50 weapons were allegedly confiscated from illegally armed civilians by Burundi security forces.

As the 10-month period of the United Nations Electoral Observer sojourn in Burundi (MENUB) has come to its close, the African Union Peace and Security Council has authorized the deployment of 100 military experts, police, and human rights observers to Burundi by December 15, after the AU Commission signs a memorandum of understanding that will govern the activities and movement of experts.

Despite the AU’s indication of its willingness to deploy the Eastern African Standby Force in response to intensified violence, the African Union Peace and Security Council voted to “impose targeted sanctions, including travel bans and asset freezes, against listed individuals who are impeding the negotiation process” by perpetrating violent acts, violating human rights and making provocative statements, following a recommendation by AU assessors in the field.

The African Union Peace and Security Council further decided that the inter-Burundi dialogue, to be mediated by Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, should convene at a location outside Burundi to allow for participation of all Burundian stakeholders.

Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) President, Joseph Kabila, has allegedly sought Zimbabwe’s assistance to circumvent the DRC constitutional requirement of a two-term presidential limit despite violently-charged tensions as a result of his bid to stay in power.

Middle East and North Africa: Syria

Maddie King

The attacks in Paris last week have catapulted the crisis in Syria to the frontline of international news as well as Western diplomatic priorities.  France and Russia have dramatically increased airstrikes against areas controlled by ISIS after the group claimed responsibility for the attacks in Paris as well as the downing of a Russian passenger jet. In the past week, the airstrikes have successfully hit arms depots, troops barracks, and other infrastructure in Raqqa, and killing dozens of ISIS members. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the Russian air strikes have caused 1331 deaths since they began on September 30th: 381 were fighters with ISIS, 547 were militants from the al-Qaida affiliated al-Nusra Front and other rebel groups, and 403 were civilians, including 97 children. On Sunday, Assad publicly thanked these Russian strikes for improving the advancement and military success of Assad’s army on the ground.

On the morning of Tuesday, November 24, the Turkish military shot down a Russian warplane along the Syrian border, marking the first time a NATO member has engaged militarily with Russia in Syria. So far, both the Turkish and Russian governments have released conflicting accounts of what lead to the incident, and specifics are not entirely clear as of now.

As Western military campaigns in Syria continue to intensify, diplomatic talks searching for a political solution also continue. In recent days Barack Obama has reiterated his belief in the necessity of the eventual removal of Assad and speakers for the Saudi government have announced that they will hold talks in Mid-December to assist in the unification of the Syrian opposition. Assad has reiterated his willingness to enter peace talks— which he prefers to be held in Moscow— but claims the first priority of the moment should be defeating terrorism. On the 19th, Syrian rebels and government forces agreed to a temporary 15-day ceasefire in the Eastern Ghouta area near Damascus. This is the second local ceasefire in recent months, coming on the tail of successful small range temporary ceasefires in a town near the Lebanese border as well as in two northwestern villages.

Furthermore, in light of the attacks in Paris, many Syrian refugees are facing renewed difficulties in seeking asylum. On November 19th, the United States House of Representatives saw the passage of H.R. 4038, the American Security Against Foreign Enemies Act, that would call for harsher regulations and investigation into “covered aliens” from Iraq or Syria applying for U.S. refugee admission. The Senate will vote on the bill on Wednesday, December 2. STAND is working in conjunction with Students Organizing for Syria (SOS) to oppose the passage of the bill, and Barack Obama has vowed to veto H.R. 4038 should it pass in the senate.

South Sudan

Jason Qu

On Thursday, November 19, the South Sudanese government and the rebel group, the South Sudan National Liberation Movement (SSNLM) have signed a peace agreement to end the violence within Western Equatoria state. A consensus has been reached between the group and Juba, regarding the return of rebel forces back to their homes as the harvest season begins, and abuses perpetrated by both the SPLA and the Arrow Boys, the SSNLM’s armed wing. The Arrow Boys are a sizable group of armed youth originally formed to combat incursions by Kony’s Lord’s Resistance Army but redirected its attention towards protection of its communities when South Sudan’s civil war began. Though the group has said that they had no intention of fighting the government, they want to ensure that the grievances of their communities are addressed. Juba has promised to review their concerns.

The South Sudanese National Assembly voted granting President Kiir the power to expand South Sudan’s states from 10 to 28, supporting his controversial executive order on this issue last month. Supporters of the plan assert that it would improve representation in local government and provision of social services, but its opponents claim it is a violation of the Constitution, would jeopardize the August peace deal which was built around 10 state institutions, and increase tribal tensions. Thirty seven members of parliament from Equatoria and 23 Nuer members boycotted the vote over grievances regarding the proposal’s constitutionality, but a number of MPs from the Equatorian Caucus and Nuer community did vote on the proposal. At the end of the session, 231 of the 323 South Sudanese MPs voted in favor of the proposal. The opposition claims that the assembly failed to meet the minimum participation requirement of 198 members to amend the Constitution, citing that only 189 MPs were present to vote. The opposition to the amendment also cites as unconstitutional the government’s decision to lump Council of States members with that of the national legislative assembly MPs, claiming that these branches are supposed to sit separately. SPLM-IO officials immediately issued statements that this could derail the peace agreement, and lawmakers claim this would push South Sudan to a tribal war.

Violence continues to rock South Sudan, despite a peace deal and ceasefire being in place, as Unity State, an area of the country that had attracted the economic and political interest of the rebels and South Sudanese government, due to its oil reverses, had felt the brunt of the fighting throughout the war. Earlier this week, the SPLA and SPLM/A-IO have traded accusations of ceasefire violations in clashes in Unity State’s Nhialdiu and Buaw Payam villages, with the SPLA-IO alleging that the SPLA began the clashes after moving on their positions in Leer County last Sunday. The South Sudanese Government claims that the SPLA-IO began the clashes by launching ambushes and attacking SPLA garrisons in the area, but nevertheless, rebel forces withdrew from the area on November 18th amid the deployment of SPLA reinforcements. There are also more allegations from the rebels that the SPLA has violated the ceasefire in other parts of the country, including Upper Nile State and Western Equatoria State.

Sudan: Darfur

Jason Qu

A new round of talks has begun between Khartoum and a number of rebel groups on Thursday, which are being facilitated by the African Union in Addis Ababa, and include the SPLM-North (SPLM-N), Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), and the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM). Fighting in Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile State have raged for years, and wreaking havoc on the civilian populations in these areas, and this meeting presents a rare opportunity to find a resolution to the violence. Both the rebel groups and the Sudanese Government have reaffirmed their commitment to creating a permanent ceasefire, after unilateral, temporary ceasefires were declared by Khartoum and the rebels ahead of peace talks. However, allegations are coming from the representatives of Khartoum, that the AU is biased in favor of the SPLM-N.

Despite peace negotiations underway between SPLM-N and Khartoum, rebel forces belonging to the SPLM-N have accused the Sudanese Army of violating the temporary ceasefires in place by attacking rebel positions in Blue Nile State. In response, SPLM-N spokesman Arnu Ngutulu Lodi has stated that in response to the alleged government offensive, the rebels had seized Soda garrison. Lodi also expressed concerns regarding aerial bombardment of the area, as part of the “Summer Campaign” launched over two years ago by the Sudanese Army in order to quell rebellions in Blue Nile State and South Kordofan.

Southeast Asia: Burma

Sophie Back

Despite a multi-national clampdown on human trafficking, smugglers are continuing their trade further in land. Burmese refugees now make up 90% of Malaysia’s 150,000 asylum seekers. Though many have been granted safety in the country, Malaysia is not a signatory to the United Nations’ Convention on the Status of Refugees, and refugees and asylum seekers are often unable to work in the country, nor are they able to receive public education or healthcare. Like Thailand, Malaysia is urging for a change in the treatment of minority groups, such as the Rohingya, in Burma in order to resolve the refugee crisis.

At the 27th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur on Saturday a spokesperson for Burmese President Thein Sein promised a smooth handover of power to the newly elected National League of Democracy (NLD). The summit focussed on development (with the creation of the ASEAN Economic Community), counter-terrorism initiatives concerning ISIS and Islamist militant groups, and concluded with the signing the ASEAN Convention Against Human Trafficking. It is hoped that this new treaty will bring about greater cooperation regarding the Asian refugee crisis.

While the ASEAN leaders discussed their next steps in addressing the Rohingya refugee crisis, President Barack Obama visited an educational center for refugees in Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. He met with refugees at the centre as part of his campaign to encourage greater compassion in the US for the global refugee crisis.

The United Nations General Assembly’s human rights committee drafted a resolution on Wednesday demanding the Burmese government to restore the citizenship to its Rohingya populations and to protect the human rights of all citizens. The resolution also called for all institutions, including the military to be brought under democratic parliamentary rule. The resolution will be put to the vote at a plenary session of the General Assembly next month.

However, U Win Htein a leading member of the NLD as spiked concerns in the international community over the Rohingya migrant crisis by stating that the ‘Rohingya issue’ would not be among the party’s main priorities during next year’s democratic transition. This week significant developments towards peace were made as martial law was suspended in Kokang, Shan State where violent clashes between government forces and local militia groups have displaced tens of thousands of people over the last 9 months. Elsewhere, a landslide in Hpakant in Kachin province this week has killed at least 90 people and destroyed many homes. It seems in the face of pressing concerns of poverty reduction, disaster relief and national security, the issue of the Rohingya’s persecution is in danger of being side-lined in the coming months.   

Get to know the 2015-2016 Education Task Force

Ruhi Bhaidani serves as Central and West Africa Conflict Coordinator, and has been a STAND member for over four years. As president of her high school’s STAND for Peace club, she organized a concert to draw attention to ongoing genocidal violence around the world. Ruhi is a freshman at the University of Chicago.

Lindah Mogeni serves as STAND’s Great Lakes Conflict Coordinator, and is a senior at Barnard College studying Political Science. Lindah comes to STAND with extensive human rights advocacy and research experience, and spent three months in 2014 as a Fieldwork Research Intern with the United Nations Stabilization Mission (MONUSCO) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Maddie King serves as STAND’s Middle East and North Africa Conflict Coordinator, and is a junior at Johns Hopkins University, where she is pursuing majors in International Studies and Global Environmental Change and Sustainability and a minor in Islamic Studies. She is passionate about addressing issues of refugee resettlement, particularly as they relate to the roots of displacement.

Sophie Back serves as STAND’s Southeast Asia Conflict Coordinator, and is a third year student at University College London pursuing a degree in History and Political Science. An outspoken advocate for Amnesty International on campus, Sophie comes to STAND after spending the summer in Vietnam, where she led a team that organized workshops to prepare students for the implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community free trade area.

Jason Qu serves as STAND’s Sudan and South Sudan Conflict Coordinator, and is a junior at the Bronx High School of Science. He is also Vice President of the Amnesty International chapter at his school, and is extensively involved in Model United Nations and the Muslim Student Association at Bronx Science.

Lindah Mogeni

Interviews of Burundian civilians, analysts and military members conducted by Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN), indicate that a faction within the army of former Hutu rebels has launched a campaign of terror that includes ‘harassing, abducting, detaining, and in some cases killing, members of the army’s old guard’ and suspected opposers of President Nkurunziza.

Evidence of ongoing desertions and defections by soldiers in Burundi’s national army, as revealed to IRIN by President of the Burundian League for Human Rights, Anschaire Nikoyagize, indicates that there are divisions within the army. However, Colonel Gaspard Baratuza, spokesman for Burundi’s army, denied widespread reports that deserters and defectors had joined a new rebellion and affirmed that ‘the army is still united and strong and only two or three soldiers out of 30,000 have run away.’ Further, Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame has been openly accused by President Nkurunziza of ‘hosting and training a new Burundian rebellion led by the coup plotters’ an accusation which Rwanda has denied.

The 15 UN Security Council members, appealing for calm in Burundi, have rallied behind the French-drafted resolution condemning ‘all public statements, coming from in or outside of the country, that appear aimed at inciting violence or hatred towards different groups in Burundian society’ and ‘raises the possibility of deploying peacekeeping.’ The Security Council also threatened sanctions against perpetrators of violence in Burundi and urged UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon to send a team to Burundi to ‘report in 15 days with options for boosting the UN presence in the country.’ Among these options include deploying an AU-controlled regional force or transfer UN Peacekeepers from DRC.

United States Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power assured that the primary objective was ‘to ensure that Burundi does not descend into mass violence.’ President Obama appealed to Burundian leaders to ‘put aside the language of hate and division’ and commit to their agreed participation in an internationally-mediated dialogue outside of Burundi. He further appealed to Burundi’s military to ‘overcome divisions and unite’ and ‘protect the people of Burundi.’ To all Burundians, he called for a unified stance against violence to secure the future of Burundi.

STAND and the Aegis Trust also issued a statement on the crisis in Burundi last week, urging international coordination for the protection of citizens in Burundi.

Middle East and North Africa: Syria

Maddie King

On Friday, a string of terrorist attacks across Paris left 129 dead and many more injured. The Islamic State has taken credit for these attacks, leading French President Francois Hollande to declare the attacks an act of war. On Sunday, French warplanes targeted strongholds in the unofficial ISIS capital of Raqaa, Syria. Many other nations, including the United States, have vowed solidarity with France in their attempts to wipe out ISIS. The French airstrikes on ISIS dropped 20 bombs throughout the city and were launched from locations in Jordan and the Persian gulf in coordination with US forces. French and Belgian governments have apprehended many suspected of involvement in the Paris attacks, and have convicted Belgian national Abdelhamid Abaaoud, in absentia. These attacks have heightened international attention on Syria. During the G20 summit in Vienna, Russia vowed to increase its aid to refugees and the United States vowed to “redouble” efforts to end the conflict, promising to work with Russia against the presence of ISIS, although the two states continue to disagree on the role of Assad in mediating a political solution.   

Last Wednesday, Russia proposed a Peace Place in Syria that was rejected by the Syrian opposition. The plan called for an 18 month period of constitutional reform under the supervision of Assad and eventual presidential elections. The leader of the Syrian National Coalition repeated the group’s stance that peace will only come with the removal of Assad from power. This plan was also dismissed by Western leaders in the US and Britain, but endorsed by Iranian president Hassan Rouhani who claims the focus of international attention should be restoring stability in the region.

In Syria, the government successfully retook control of many strategic areas including towns along the Damascus-Aleppo highway and the Kweiris military base, which had been controlled by ISIS since 2013.

South Sudan

Jason Qu

The Arrow Boys militia, an armed youth group that numbers thousands in Western Equatoria State, have declared their allegiance to the SPLA-IO [In Opposition]. At the time of their formation in 2010, the Arrow Boys were considered a local security group, acting in response to an incursion into South Sudan by the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) headed by Joseph Kony, and were armed only with bows and arrows and single-shot homemade firearms. In 2011, when the South Sudanese Civil War began, they turned their attention towards defending Western Equatoria from SPLA and SPLA-IO operations. However, according to the leader of the Arrow Boys, Alred Karaba Futio Onyang, the SPLA launched an offensive last week against the Arrow Boys and other armed groups in the area, in violation of the August peace agreement. Thus, he says, they have been forced to join ranks with the SPLA-IO.

Riek Machar, the leader of the SPLM-IO, has confirmed that he will not be attending an IGAD-held conference in Juba, which has been delayed to November 23rd. The opposition states that this is due to security issues, and the need for an advance team of SPLA/M-IO personnel officials in Juba to ensure the safety of Machar. This advance team of 500 was supposed to be in place by November 15, but the SPLM/A-IO has said that this is no longer possible, and have extended the deadline to November 26. Despite this, Machar is expected to return to Juba to hold a meeting on the Constitution and formation of a new South Sudanese transitional government. This is expected to begin by January 2016 at the latest. Machar fled Juba in 2013, when the civil war began, and has recently declared the creation of a SPLM-IO chapter in Addis Ababa, which is home to many South Sudanese refugees, with the aim of garnering support for the peace and reconciliation process.

Despite a permanent ceasefire being in place in South Sudan, Leer County, a flashpoint in volatile and oil-rich Unity State, is a site of ongoing violence. Fresh fighting began on November 8 and lasted for two days, killing at least 19 people, including women and children. Blame was exchanged on both sides as the SPLA accused rebels of launching an offensive on the town and razing villages, while the SPLA-IO accused the Army of violating the permanent ceasefire. Unity State has been the scene of much of the conflict in South Sudan, due to its strategic and economic value, and, as such, has been the site of a massive emerging humanitarian crisis.

The humanitarian situation in South Sudan remains complex and disheartening. The UN Office of the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) cites an 80% increase in food insecurity over the last year due to ongoing violence throughout South Sudan. An estimated 40,000 South Sudanese in Unity State are facing “catastrophic” conditions regarding food security, and the threat of widespread famine looms due to ongoing violence and instability. The UN World Food Programme has reported that almost four million people face moderate to severe food insecurity in South Sudan. Due to increasing insecurity, polio vaccines are also not being delivered in Greater Mundri’s counties in Western Equatoria, which demonstrates the major impact that the conflict has had on the distribution of health and social services. Despite these challenges, there has been good news; humanitarian aid has reached 24,000 displaced people in some parts of Western Equatoria where fighting has calmed, and Ethiopia has recorded a sharp decline of refugees from South Sudan which is partially due to the conclusion of the final portions of the August Peace Agreement.

Sudan: Darfur

Jason Qu

Sudanese opposition parties, acting under an alliance called “Sudan Call,” and comprised of major coalitions and parties such as the National Consensus Forces and the Sudan Revolutionary Forces (SRF), held a 4-day conference in Paris, from November 11 to 15, to discuss the national dialogue initiative launched by the Khartoum government, as well as to discuss their own organizational issues, including tensions between SRF leadership. Before the conference, key opposition figures and leaders had passports seized by members of the National Intelligence and Security Services, Sudan’s intelligence agency, and many were denied travel to Paris by Khartoum. An opposition figure who returned to Sudan from Paris, Kamal Ismail, leader of the Sudanese National Alliance Party, was later detained by NISS personnel. Rebel officials and opposition figures say these moves will harm the ongoing political process in Sudan. After the conference, they released a statement that they plan to “liquidate” the regime in Khartoum in favor of a transitional government.

The African Union has confirmed a two day conference to take place on November 18 to 19 in Addis Ababa, between the Sudanese Government and some, but not all, major rebel groups in Blue Nile, South Kordofan, and Darfur.  The Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) and Sudan Liberation Movement – Minni Minnawi (SLM-MM) will be represented at this meeting. The aim of the discussion is cessation of hostilities in the Blue Nile, South Kordofan, and Darfur, places in which conflict has affected millions and lasted for more than a decade. This AU-facilitated gathering comes after Khartoum launched a national dialogue initiative, which was boycotted by rebel groups that believed that an African Union mediating body would be the only way to achieve a political solution.

Inter-communal violence remains the key source of conflict in Darfur. There are fears of renewed violence between the Ma’alia and Rizeigat tribes, who fought in July of last year, resulting in 600 casualties. The Rizeigat accuse the Ma’alia of stealing their cattle as well as the government for doing nothing to recover their herds, and have threatened violence if the animals are not returned. Earlier this week in North Darfur, two people were killed and six injured in fighting that arose between the Barti and Zayadia tribes. The farmers in the area said that pastors went onto their farmland and damaged their crops. The violence began when the farmers attempted to seize 85 heads of camel as compensation. Both events expose the fragile situation in Darfur between herders and farmers, which, in the absence of regional leadership and effective mediation, are likely to grow more common.

Southeast Asia: Burma

Sophie Back

Last week, Burma as held its first free elections in 25 years, resulting in a landslide victory for the pro-democracy opposition party, the National League of Democracy (NLD). In 2016, the NLD will replace the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) Government, which has governed Burma under authoritarian rule since 2010. As of November 15, the NLD had won 882 out of the 1160 parliamentary seats, with 99% of the votes confirmed.

Parliament reconvened on Monday. Outgoing members of parliament will have 2 and a half months to continue making laws before official transfer of power, at which point the presidential elections will be held in parliament. Many believe that this election marks the beginning of Burma’s democratic transformation. Current President Thein Sein has stated his support for the new government, maintaining that the elections are a result of his own reform projects, which have been expanding civil liberties in recent years.

Despite strong support from the international community, there is doubt over how far Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the NLD, will be able to combat Burma’s most divisive issues, such as the persecution of the Rohingya and the widespread militancy that threatens the nation. No Muslim parliamentarians were elected, though Muslims make up at least 4% of Burma’s population. Many Muslims were also not permitted to vote in the election. Furthermore, the military represents a potential barrier to change as it retains 25% of parliamentary seats and a monopoly on the use of force in Burma.

The international NGOs Amnesty International and the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) are calling on all UN member states to push for a resolution on human rights violations in Burma proposed during the 70th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) last month. On Election Day last Sunday, members of Maungdaw Province’s Rohingya community held a silent protest against their exclusion from the democratic process and their brutal treatment by the Burmese authorities. Despite the NLD’s triumph, anti-Islamic minority parties have made significant gains in the elections, particularly the Arakan National Party and ethnic parties from Mon State, which pose a significant threat to the Muslim communities in these regions.

It is too early to tell whether this election will bring about the democratic change in Burma that has been so hoped for, however, Aung San Suu Kyi has expressed a strong commitment to end violence and injustice in Burma and to work with the military to manage Burma’s transition to liberal democracy.