Sudan

After Mohamed Mattar, a Sudanese engineering student, was killed protecting two people during the massacre of protesters in Khartoum on June 3rd, his blue profile picture became the symbol for the online #BlueforSudan movement. Worldwide, people changed their social media profile pictures to that shade of blue to honor him and the other victims of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and to show solidarity with the civilians continuing to protest the Sudanese government.

Transitional Military Council (TMC) cut internet access after the June 3 massacre to stifle the information released about its crimes. As of Tuesday, July 9, a court-ordered restoration of landline phone connections has been implemented, technically ending the blackout, but leaving many still disconnected. Mobile connections have not yet been restored. This partial restoration of internet access in Sudan comes as the result of a power-sharing agreement between the TMC and civilian protest leaders. This agreement sets out a plan for a military leader for the first 21 months, followed by a civilian leader for the next 18 months and then a democratically-elected president after the interim period. 

It is likely that people such as the head of the RSF and deputy head of the TMC Mohamed Hamdan “Hemeti” Dagalo, who is accused of human rights atrocities in the Darfur Genocide, will maintain significant power. Furthermore, the inquiry into the June 3 massacre will not hold the military accountable. Many women and members of marginalized groups fear that they will be excluded from power, especially in regions recovering from immense violence such as Darfur. It seems best to look at this new agreement with optimistic cautiousness; it may turn out well for the people of Sudan but it may, like many agreements of the past, fall through. Awareness is still of the utmost importance. 

South Sudan

Eight years after South Sudan declared independence from Sudan, the country is still rife with conflict. President Salva Kiir apologized for conflict and government mismanagement contributing to the ongoing economic crisis in his eight-year Independence Day speech. Still, a recent UN report documents increased conflict in Central Equatoria in South Sudan since Kiir and rebel leader Riek Machar signed a peace agreement last year. Although violence has decreased elsewhere in the country, hundreds have been killed or abducted in Central Equatoria and many women and girls have been subjected to rape and sexual violence. Here, ongoing territorial contests between government forces, rebel groups who did not sign the peace agreement, and forces allied with Machar lead to deliberate and accidental civilian deaths. This surge in attacks has forced over 56,000 people to flee their homes, becoming internally displaced within South Sudan, and another 20,000 to escape to Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 

Great Lakes of Africa

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Over the past month, the total number of reported Ebola cases rose to 2,418, with 1,630 reported deaths, according to the latest situation report from the World Health Organization. No new cases have been reported in the town from which the outbreak originated, but the virus continues to spread to new towns throughout the North Kivu and Ituri provinces. One case was recently reported near the border with South Sudan; since last month, there have been no cases reported in Uganda. On July 15, a case was confirmed in Goma by the Rwandan border, but the responsiveness indicates that the chances of its spread in this region are low. However, the response capacity in the North Kivu and Ituri provinces is still hindered by the widespread distrust of public health and government officials amongst a population so long afflicted by violence. Rumors that the Ebola virus was brought into the region to target the historically victimized population are widespread and largely believed.  

In recent months, violence has increased. Displacement due to revived conflict, totalling at about 300,000 displaced persons since June, exacerbates the difficulty of tracking patients at risk of Ebola. In addition to extreme public health concerns, the resurgence of violence in the Ituri province prompted President Felix Tshisekedi to describe the longstanding conflict between Lendu farmers and Hema herders as “attempted genocide.” In early July, he launched an offensive backed by UN peacekeeping mission MONUSCO, Uganda, and Rwanda in an attempt to end the communal violence. According to Al Jazeera, Congolese refugees arriving in Uganda report extreme brutality; local officials say that at least 161 people were killed in one attack, all of whose bodies were found in a single mass grave. It is an incredibly complex region, with current violence further destabilized by neighboring conflicts such as the Rwandan genocide of the mid-90s, the presence of numerous local militias and foreign armed groups, and an abundance of lucrative resources like gold and cobalt.

While President Tshisekedi spoke out about genocidal conflict plaguing the Ituri province, police fired on protestors in the capital of Kinshasa as well as the city of Goma according to Human Rights Watch. Protestors are calling on Congolese authorities to investigate excessive use of force against the peaceful protestors of the Lamuka coalition, which backed Martin Fayulu during the recent presidential elections. On June 30, they gathered to protest widespread corruption and election fraud, but were met with teargas, live ammunition, and beatings. 

On July 8, General Bosco Ntaganda, also known as “The Terminator,” was convicted by the International Criminal Court of 18 counts of crimes against humanity and war crimes. First indicted in 2006 for his role in atrocities between 2002-2003, he now faces a maximum life sentence. 

Middle East

Yemen

Since 2014, the civil war in Yemen has killed more than 16,000 civilians and left more than 12 million people on the verge of starvation. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) partnered with Yemen Data Project and determined that there have been more than 91,600 conflict-related fatalities in Yemen since 2015. Around 67% of all reported civilian fatalities have been caused by Saudi-led coalition airstrikes. They also found 2018 to be the deadliest and most violent year on record. A UN Security Council report covering the period from April 1, 2013 to December 31, 2018 determines that children are paying the highest price for the war. During that period, there have been 11,779 violations against children in Yemen. Maiming and killing were the two main violations, primarily caused by airstrikes and ground fighting. Additionally, underreported instances include sexual violence, recruitment and use of children in war and attack on schools and hospitals. 

Five years into the war, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a key member of the Saudi-led coalition, has decided to withdraw most of its forces from Yemen. However, they plan on leaving behind Emirati trained forces and maintaining its Al-Mukalla base for counterterrorism operations. The Houthis have also led missile and drone attacks on Saudi cities and airports since June 2019. One of the most recent drone attacks struck Abha airport on July 2 and nine civilians were injured. These attacks escalate tensions as the UN and the international community attempt to negotiate peace in Yemen. Diplomats from the UAE claimed that the UAE can always send troops back to Yemen, where Abu Dhabi has built strong local allies with tens of thousands of fighters.

Syria

The northwestern province of Idlib continues to be the focus of an ongoing Russian-led bombing campaign which began in April. 544 civilians, including 130 children, have been killed and over 2,000 have been injured as a result of strikes. These attacks have included the use of cluster munitions and incendiary weapons targeting largely civilian areas. The Russian government attempted to justify ongoing attacks by arguing that they are responses to al-Qaida action and a failed ceasefire deal between Turkey and Russia last year. 

Over 300,000 people have been pushed from their homes since the attacks began in April, moving closer to the Turkish border. As the campaign continues, reports have determined that three million civilian lives are at risk, including at least one million children. 

In Lebanon, which hosts the most refugees per capita in the world including 1.5 million Syrians, refugees are blamed for the country’s economic crisis and pressured to leave. Syrian refugees in the region of Arsal were given until July 1st to demolish shelters that were made of any material deemed more permanent than timber and plastic sheeting. Simultaneously, refugees have been targeted with an increase in arrests and deportations, confiscation and destruction of property, curfews, and limits to education and employment access. 

Southeast Asia

Burma

Many of the 100,000 ethnic Kachins living in 140 internally displaced persons (IDPs) camps continue to suffer from the effects of war since the ceasefire broke between the KIA and Burmese military eight years ago. As the Burmese government blocks IDPs from receiving aid in food, healthcare, shelter, and sanitation, prayers were said in the mountains of Kachin state on June 14. Moreover, an ethnic Kachin woman was found brutally murdered in an IDP camp on July 4. 

Burmese authorities also gave orders for the shut down of the internet in nine townships located in Rakhine and Chin states on June 20, which allowed for war crimes to go unnoticed as the Burmese military approached fighting with the local Arakan Army. In addition to these crimes, reports have found that cybercrimes, including online fraud and online sexual violence, have been increasingly on the rise since 2015. The U.S. expressed their disapproval of the situation on June 29 by joining calls for Burma to end the internet shutdown. On July 3, UN investigator Yang Hee Lee reported that new war crimes have appeared amidst the internet blackout, although the Burmese military constantly deny such allegations.

In response to atrocities against the Rohingya, International Criminal Court Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda filed a request with judges on July 4 to open up an investigation of crimes against humanity committed by the Burmese government against the ethnic group. On July 6, hundreds took to the streets in marches supporting the “Justice for Victoria” movement, a response to a toddler rape case that has become a campaign against sexual violence. In regards to Burma’s 2020 elections, speculators like Ma Htoot May believe that the NLD’s actions in the past year alone and inaction of Aung San Suu Kyi have lessened the party’s appeal to the public and that ethnic parties will thus have a higher chance of winning. On the morning of July 10, Burmese nationals, including the brother of the Arakan Army Chief General, were arrested in Singapore for their ties to the Arakan Army, in which they organized Burmese individuals living within the country to financially support the rebel armed group. Singapore plans to deport them.

Emerging Crises

Venezuela

Last week, talks began in Barbados between the Venezuelan opposition and the government of President Maduro. Mediated by Norway, both sides returned on Thursday with no announcement of a deal. During this break, two members of Juan Guaido’s security detail were detained for attempting to sell rifles during Guaido’s failed April 30 attempt at removing Maduro from power. Though talks were confirmed to continue into this week with an announcement from the opposition on Sunday, the arrests are expected to exacerbate tensions. The government will bring the weapons accusation against the opposition during the coming round of negotiation, while Guaido remains steadfast that the arrests are based on false evidence as a part of intimidation efforts. There is fear that talks will continue to stall as the Western Hemisphere’s worst humanitarian crisis in recent memory continues to worsen. 

As the current government struggles to handle its worsening political and economic crisis, the United Nations recently released a report documenting 18 months of extrajudicial killings perpetrated by the Venezuelan special forces. Though the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry denounces the reports, the investigators give abundant evidence of the witness-described “death squads” killing thousands for resisting authority, cover-up of the deaths, and an overall system of suppression. United Nations human rights officials fear that the special forces and other armed groups are used by the government to control their population by fostering widespread fear. Briefly following the UN report, an international legal watchdog organization, the International Commission of Jurists, said that the government has seized the legislative and judicial branches of the Venezuelan government, leading to the breakdown of the rule of law. 

Mali

Violence in Mali has been steadily escalating with clashes between the Fulani and Dogon ethnic groups, where the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali recorded 488 Fulani deaths and 63 Fulani-caused deaths since the beginning of 2018. The ethnic violence between the Fulani and Dogon groups stems from long-fought battles over land and resources after Amadeus Koufa, a Malian preacher, started recurring Fulanis for an armed group in 2015. 

On June 19, 2019, an estimated 38 people were killed after Fulani communities attacked Dogon villages in the Mopti region. Dogon militiamen retaliated on July 1, when an attack on a village of Fulani herders left 23 dead and 300 missing. 

Civilians began to respond to the escalation in violence when, in late June, an estimated 5,000 organizers gathered in Mali’s capital to demand an end to the recent attacks. The events in Mali have also gained international attention due to the wide speculation that the growing population of Islamic extremists in the area has inflamed tensions after the recent killing of 10 peacekeepers in Mali. On July 10, the UN Secretary-General urged the international community to support West Africa’s fight against armed groups, stating that the violence started in Mali and has spread to Burkina Faso and Niger.

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Grace Harris is an incoming junior at Tampa Preparatory School in Florida, where she serves as the president of her STAND chapter. She also serves on STAND national’s Sudan and Yemen Action Committees, and will be STAND’s State Advocacy Lead for Florida in the 2019-2020 academic year. Grace contributed the Sudan and South Sudan portions of this update.

Megan Smith is a rising senior at the University of Southern California, where she will be working to reestablish a STAND chapter, and is an incoming member of STAND’s Managing Committee co-leading education and outreach. Previously, she has served on the Policy Task Force of STAND France during her junior year and as California State Advocacy Lead during her sophomore year. Outside of STAND, she interned at the nonprofits DigDeep (Los Angeles) and HAMAP-Humanitaire (Paris) and currently works at Dexis Consulting Group (DC). Megan contributed the DRC and Venezuela portions of this update.

Aisha Saleem is a rising sophomore at Barnard College, and a member of STAND’s Managing Committee. Previously, Aisha was a task force member where she contributed to monthly blogs and op-eds about genocide-related issues around the world. She is also interested in current issues in education and enjoys doing neuroscience research. Aisha contributed the Yemen portion of this update.

Abby Edwards is a junior in the Dual BA program between Columbia University and Sciences Po Paris and serves on the STAND USA Managing Committee. Prior to this, Abby served on the Managing Committee of STAND France and worked as an intern for the Buchenwald Memorial, the Journal of European and American Intelligence Studies, and conducted research for the US Department of State – Office of the Historian. This summer, Abby will be conducting research on post-conflict education in Cambodia as a Junior Research Fellow with the Center for Khmer Studies. Abby contributed the Syria portion of this update.

Jan Jan Maran is a rising junior at George Mason University, and is Co-lead of the Burma Action Committee. As member of STAND’s Managing Committee, she is also involved in STAND’s Congo, Sudan, Yemen, and Indegeneous Peoples Committees. She is very passionate about genocide-related issues and enjoys working with organizations like STAND in order speak out against such atrocities. Jan Jan contributed the Burma portion of this update.

Caroline Mendoza is a STAND Managing Committee member and an incoming senior at Cerritos High School in California. She served as STAND’s 2018-2019 West Region Field Organizer, and on STAND’s Burma and Yemen Action Committees. In her free time, Caroline participates in Model United Nations, marching band, and Girl Scouts, and pursues Holocaust and genocide education. Caroline contributed the Mali portion of this update.

Sudan

In the two months since the fall of Omar al-Bashir, demands for civilian rule have been brutally denied by the military generals ruling Sudan. After weeks of protests, a military crackdown in early June has left at least 118 killed and 784 wounded by security forces. Eyewitnesses have reported militiamen hurling corpses into the Nile, some with cement bricks tied to their limbs to keep the bodies from floating. Militiamen have used tear gas, whips, and sticks to beat men and women alike, and have burned tents at the sit-in site, many with people still inside. Systematic rapes of both protesters and doctors have also been reported.

In response to the crackdown, demonstrators have decried the current ruling elites as holdovers from al-Bashir’s regime, initiating a civil disobedience campaign on June 9. Mass strikes have shut down businesses and public entities across Khartoum, and the government has held essential employees at gunpoint to force them to work. The Sudanese Professional Association, one of the groups that led the protest movement which forced al-Bashir out of power, has also urged international financial institutions to boycott the military government. The U.N. called for a monitoring team to be deployed to Sudan and the U.S. State Department condemned the crackdown, echoing demands for a transition to a civilian government. The African Union has suspended Sudan’s membership until a civilian government is put in place. For STAND’s latest on the Sudan crisis and its connections to U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, see our recent blog post here.

South Sudan

On Friday, May 3, the conflicting parties led by South Sudan President Salva Kiir and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in Opposition (SPLM-IO) leader Riek Machar met and agreed to delay the formation of a united, power-sharing government for six months. While Machar, who fled in 2016 following a previous peace deal collapse, wanted a six-month delay to resolve security issues that have prevented his return to Juba, Kiir wanted to focus on forming the joint administration. A week later, Kiir declared that the formation of this unified government should be delayed by at least a year, stating that so far his administration has been unable to fully disarm and train all of the various forces formerly fighting in South Sudan and citing difficulties due to the upcoming rainy season.

This comes a month after South Sudan’s government hired lobbyists from Gainful Solutions, a California-based lobbyist organization, to persuade the U.S. government to reverse current sanctions on South Sudan and to delay and block establishment of a hybrid court that would try those accused of war crimes in South Sudan. While complaining about the costs of peace agreement implementation, it paid $3.7 million to the firm.

Citing corruption, human rights abuses, and fears that a united government will never be formed, youth activist groups called for demonstrations on May 15 to protest the Kiir administration, concerned that the delay would simply punt the same problems down the line. In response, South Sudanese troops were sent to prevent these protests, fearing that they could result in Kiir’s ouster.

Great Lakes of Africa

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

In the second worst ebola epidemic on record, DRC’s outbreak has surpassed 2,000 reported cases, over half of which have resulted in deaths, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). In the past two months alone, the reported number cases doubled. The outbreak shows little sign of containment. On June 11, the first cross-border case was reported in Uganda. The infected five-year-old boy died after he and his family entered Uganda on June 9. Since the announcement, three more cases have been confirmed in Uganda. The cross-border spread could incite a renewed push for declaration of the ebola outbreak as a global emergency.

The rapid rise in ebola cases coincides with dramatic intensification of violence in the region. Intermittent violence driven by politics, money, and regional insecurity have afflicted DRC’s North Kivu and Ituri provinces, the center of the ebola outbreak, for over two decades. Historically, civilians have served as targets for both state and non-state actors, leaving communities with a strong distrust for authorities. Thus, rumors claiming ebola as a hoax, or caused by the government and health workers, are easily accepted. This mistrust has made emergency response efforts ineffective.

Additionally, attacks on treatment centers have become more frequent, leading organizations like Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) to pull out. Attacks have been blamed by the government on local militias who often work on behalf of political sponsors and foreign bidders. In a June 3 statement, ISIS claimed responsibility for sponsoring a deadly attack in Beni—and not for the first time. Other attacks are tied to political tensions from the presidential elections. Leaflets left by attackers at treatment centers justify attacks with the exclusion of 1.2 million voters due to stated concerns of the Ebola outbreak.  

On May 20, President Tshisekedi announced Sylvestre Ilunga Ilukamba, an ally of former president Kabila, as prime minister. The position holds a substantial amount of power, confirming that Kabila has not left the political scene (nor has he left the presidential villa). Despite evidence of fraudulent elections and growing disapproval of the Tshisekedi-Kabila alliance, there is still hope for political change. Since taking office, Tshisekedi has pardoned over 700 political prisoners, opposition leader Moise Katumbi has returned from exile, and the late opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi was finally buried on May 30, two years after his death.

Middle East

Yemen

The conflict in Yemen has intensified in recent weeks with an increase in Houthi actions against the Saudi coalition. In response to Saudi escalation of air raids on the Houthi in Hajjah, a northern Yemeni province, Houthi forces have begun to target the kingdom increasingly with drone and missile attacks. There has also been an upswing in cholera cases in the third major outbreak since 2015. The spread of the disease has been exacerbated due to the war: many Yemenis are forced to drink dirty water, a major cause of cholera, as water resources have become scarce. Due to restrictions on imports over the past few years, it has become increasingly difficult for patients and medical professionals to have access to life-saving medicines which would otherwise be inexpensive and easy to access.

Following the U.S. Senate’s failed attempt to override Trump’s veto of the Yemen War Powers Resolution, a measure to end U.S. military support for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, on May 24, President Trump declared a national security emergency in order to waive Congressional review of $8.1 billion in arms sales to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan. Pompeo cited tensions with Iran as the reason for the declaration. He stated that a delay in the sale could increase the risk of losing U.S. allies at a time of instability caused by Iran. In response, a bipartisan group of senators plan to introduce 22 separate resolutions of disapproval: one for each of the 22 weapons sales. This effort is intended to reassert Congress’ role of approving arms deals to foreign governments. In a related effort, Senators Chris Murphy and Todd Young have announced that they will introduce a bill to force a vote on the U.S.-Saudi relationship.  Their bill will invoke the Foreign Assistance Act, requesting a report of Saudi human rights practices within a 30-day window. After receipt of the report, Congress can force a vote on U.S. security assistance to Saudi Arabia.

Syria

The last significant rebel stronghold in Syria, the northwestern province of Idlib has become the focus of a bombing campaign led by Russian and Syrian forces. The campaign has targeted over 25 health facilities and 35 schools. In the month of May alone, nearly 270,000 people were displaced and over 300 killed as a result of the bombardment.

In the southwestern city of Dara’a, more than 380 civilians have been arrested and 11 killed since the city fell to the Syrian army in July 2018. Despite the government’s promise to implement “reconciliation” agreements, the city has been a place of targeted killings, enforced disappearances, and arbitrary arrests. Hundreds remain detained for unknown reasons in a move by the Assad government to reassert control and smother resistance in the region. In Syria at large, over 2,400 are being held in prisons, where thousands are believed to have perished due to poor treatment or torture.

Southeast Asia

Burma

On May 27, 2019, the Burmese government released seven soldiers who were jailed for the killing of 10 Rohingya in 2017, serving less than a year in what was supposed to be a ten-year prison sentence. Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo, Reuters reporters who gained international attention after being jailed for their investigation of Burma’s violence towards the Rohingya, were freed on May 7th after serving 500 days in prison. In mid-May, the World Bank announced plans to implement a $100 million development project in Burma to support small businesses and increase employment in impoverished areas of the country. Because of existing barriers that some rights groups liken to South African apartheid, human rights groups have expressed concerns that the project could end up being counterproductive if underlying social tensions remain unaddressed — which is likely if, as is proposed, the Burmese government decides how to allocate the funds.

In late May, Amnesty International conducted an investigation in Rakhine state, confirming that violence, war crimes, and human rights abuses are continuing against the state’s varying ethnic groups. The reports that ethnic Rakhine, Mro, Rohingya, and Khami villagers are living in conflict zones, in addition to newly-found evidence that the military is pursuing the destruction of ancient temple complexes in Mrauk-U. After being first reported on in March, the trafficking of women from Burma’s Kachin and Shan states has become increasingly dire. Kachin women have been continuously sold to China due to the country’s scarcity of women, and the issue has gone largely unrecognized with little to no action from Burma’s or China’s law enforcement.

Emerging Crises

Venezuela

Venezuela is mired in a major political crisis as the struggle for power intensifies between incumbent President Maduro and the leader of the opposition, Juan Guaidó. The 2018 elections remain contested, as numerous opposition candidates were barred from running and Venezuela’s Supreme Court carried out the legal indictment of National Assembly members. In January 2019, the National Assembly, led mostly by parties opposed to Maduro’s United Socialist Party of Venezuela, declared Guaidó the interim president of the country.

The international community is now split between those who have withdrawn recognition of Maduro’s government (including the U.S., Canada, the Organization of American States, and the majority of E.U. members), and those who view the Maduro government as legitimate (including Russia, China, and Iran). In the midst of the political unrest, the conflict also harbors a massive humanitarian crisis, as the 1.3 million % inflation rate, medical crisis, and food shortages cause millions of Venezuelans to flee.

In April, the West solidified its stance against Maduro’s government, as the U.S. demanded that Maduro be held accountable for the humanitarian crisis. Canada joined by placing further sanctions against 43 members of Maduro’s government and freezing their assets. Red Cross and other humanitarian aid organizations have begun relief deliveries and services in the region. As oil sanctions from the West intensified mid-April, Venezuela increased oil sales to Russia. On April 19, Guaidó called for a nation-wide march against Maduro’s government, intensifying the military crackdown in the country.

Meanwhile, Maduro has increased his reliance on the military, continuing to praise their ‘total loyalty’ and their importance in preserving Venezuelan leadership. Pro-Maduro countries such as Turkey and Russia accused Guaidó’s party of resorting to violence. As rallies against the Maduro regime have intensified, Brazilian and Lima Group intelligence have suggested that there are fractions in the military which could lead to the regime’s collapse. Amnesty International and other human rights organizations have called for the ICC to investigate crimes against humanity in Venezuela as the E.U. and the U.S. continue to condemn Venezuelan courts’ proceedings against opposition parties.

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Isabel Wolfer is a recent graduate of The George Washington University in Washington, DC, and is STAND’s outgoing Communications Coordinator. In addition to her work with STAND, Isabel has interned for the Darfur Women Action Group, the U.S. Department of Justice, the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, and has been a Junior Resident Fellow at the Center for Khmer Studies in Siem Reap, Cambodia. Isabel contributed the Sudan portion of this update.

Grace Harris is an incoming junior at Tampa Preparatory School in Florida, where she serves as the president of her STAND chapter. She also serves on STAND national’s Sudan and Yemen Action Committees, and will be STAND’s State Advocacy Lead for Florida in the 2019-2020 academic year. Grace contributed the South Sudan portion of this update.

Megan Smith is a rising senior at the University of Southern California, where she will be working to reestablish a STAND chapter, and is an incoming member of STAND’s Managing Committee co-leading education and outreach. Previously, she has served on the Policy Task Force of STAND France during her junior year and as California State Advocacy Lead during her sophomore year. Outside of STAND, she interned at the nonprofits DigDeep (Los Angeles) and HAMAP-Humanitaire (Paris) and currently works at Dexis Consulting Group. Megan contributed the DRC portion of this update.

Yasmine Halmane is an incoming senior at Teaneck High School in New Jersey, where she is working to establish her school’s first STAND chapter. She also serves on STAND national’s Yemen and Sudan Action Committees. In addition to her work with STAND, Yasmine is also affiliated with Amnesty International US. Yasmine contributed the Yemen portion of this update.

Abby Edwards is a junior in the Dual BA program between Columbia University and Sciences Po Paris and serves on the STAND USA Managing Committee. Prior to this, Abby served on the Managing Committee of STAND France and worked as an intern for the Buchenwald Memorial, the Journal of European and American Intelligence Studies, and conducted research for the US Department of State – Office of the Historian. This summer, Abby will be conducting research on post-conflict education in Cambodia as a Junior Research Fellow with the Center for Khmer Studies. Abby contributed the Syria portion of this update.

Caroline Mendoza is a STAND Managing Committee member and an incoming senior at Cerritos High School in California. She and served as STAND’s 2018-2019 West Region Field Organizer, and on STAND’s Burma and Yemen Action Committees. In her free time, Caroline participates in Model United Nations, marching band, and Girl Scouts, and pursues Holocaust and genocide education. Caroline contributed the Burma portion of this update.

Vishwa Padigepati is an incoming first year student at Yale University, and a member of the STAND Managing Committee, as well as the Yemen and Sudan Action Committees. In addition to her work in STAND, she has interned for her State Senator and Congressional Representative and has done policy research on developmental infrastructure for Andhra Pradesh, India. Vishwa contributed the Venezuela portion of this update.

1. Burma

After insurgents from the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) attacked Burmese security forces on August 25, 2017, the Burmese military launched a scorched-earth assault against Rohingya Muslim civilians in Rakhine state. During a brutal military campaign that the United Nations has classified as a “textbook example of ethnic cleansing,” a position that has been echoed by U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, the military has burned hundreds of villages and systematically killed and raped thousands of Rohingya civilians. Many of the 650,000 Rohingya refugees who fled into Bangladesh to escape the violence are in danger of starvation and disease. Many more remain trapped in what are essentially concentration camps within Burma. Even in the midst of this catastrophe, however, the government of Burma recently banned Yanghee Lee, a special investigator from the United Nations, from investigating human rights violations in Burma, and Aung San Suu Kyi, the de facto civilian leader of Burma, has largely remained silent on the plight of the Rohingya. As the Rohingya continue to suffer in host countries such as Bangladesh and Malaysia, and feel it is unsafe to return to Burma, continued international pressure, including a reimposition of sanctions by the United States and global partners, is vital to address these atrocities.

2. Central African Republic

In the second half of last year, the humanitarian situation in the Central African Republic deteriorated significantly as the central government remained unable to exercise meaningful authority outside of the capital of Bangui. Already one of the poorest countries in the world, most of the country is controlled by armed groups fighting over valuable resources, such as cattle and diamonds. Since the cycle of violence began again in 2013, more than one million civilians have been forcibly displaced, and today more than half of the population relies on humanitarian aid to survive. Unfortunately, thousands have been unable to obtain such aid because it is too dangerous for non-governmental organizations to operate in many areas of the country. Without increased assistance to the Central African Republic, focusing on both emergency assistance and support for building sustainable political, economic, and legal institutions, instability and atrocities against civilians will undoubtedly continue.

3. South Sudan

A ceasefire signed by President Salva Kiir’s government and several opposition groups on December 21 was broken within hours. The ceasefire intended to revive a previously signed peace deal that collapsed earlier last year after fighting between government and rebel forces erupted in the capital of Juba. Neighboring countries involved in the negotiations, as well as the United States, have threatened to punish those who violate the ceasefire, but it is unclear whether such pressure will be sufficient to deter the parties, particularly because it is unclear how exactly South Sudan would be punished. Meanwhile, the people of South Sudan face a vast humanitarian crisis; nearly four million have been forcibly displaced, and seven million will not survive without humanitarian assistance. Maintaining the ceasefire and working towards a sustainable political solution will be crucial in order to ameliorate this crisis and end the ethnic violence that has persisted throughout the past year.

4. Sudan

Though the United States lifted economic sanctions on Sudan in October, the human rights record of President Omar al-Bashir’s government remains abysmal. Last June, the United Nations began to reduce the size of its peacekeeping force in Sudan, yet violence against civilians by government forces and armed militias remains prevalent. Approximately one-third of the population of Darfur remains displaced, and many remain concerned for their safety and livelihoods, particularly in the midst of a disarmament process that could reignite violence in the region. Additionally, millions of people are in desperate need of humanitarian assistance in Darfur, the Nuba Mountains, and Blue Nile. Both short-term and long-term efforts are necessary to end atrocities that continue to be committed in Sudan.

5. Yemen

The civil war in Yemen, which has now lasted more than one thousand days, only worsened near the end of 2017. Saudi airstrikes continue to target civilians and violence rages between Houthi rebels, pro-government forces, local militias, and Islamic State fighters. More than seven million civilians are at risk of starvation, partially due to a blockade of Yemeni ports by Saudi Arabia. Although the key port of Hodeidah was reopened on December 20, Saudi Arabia promised to leave it open for just thirty days; after that, there is no guarantee that aid will continue to arrive. Additionally, nearly one million people have been infected with cholera. This epidemic has been exacerbated by the destruction of hospitals and water supply facilities, and the blockade of ports that made it impossible for remaining hospitals to access electricity. Observers have indicated that there is neither a military nor a humanitarian solution to this crisis; thus far, however, peace talks have failed to make significant progress.

6. Burundi

In December, President Pierre Nkurunziza threatened citizens of Burundi to support a referendum that would permit him to remain in power until 2034. He declared that any attempt to sabotage the referendum would be a “red line.” Extrajudicial killings and torture continue to be used against political opponents, and the regime has also cracked down on the media. Although Nkurunziza has insisted that it is safe for refugees to return to Burundi, a recent report by Amnesty International found that many risk death, sexual violence, or torture upon their return. In order to guarantee lasting peace in Burundi, the political impasse must end. All efforts to alter the constitution in Burundi have only led to increased violence.

7. Democratic Republic of the Congo

The humanitarian situation worsened significantly last year in the Democratic Republic of Congo, as President Joseph Kabila continually delayed elections, “implement[ing] a deliberate ‘strategy of chaos’ through orchestrated violence,” which has displaced and killed thousands of civilians. The United Nations recently classified it as a Level 3 emergency, placing the country on par with Syria, Yemen, and Iraq. Violence rages in various provinces, particularly Kasai, Tanganyika, and South Kivu. Armed groups have burned villages, killed and raped civilians, and forcibly recruited child soldiers. Even as 13 million people require humanitarian assistance, the world has provided minimal financial support. In December, 15 peacekeepers from the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) were killed, and the suspected killer of two United Nations experts was arrested. Protests against Kabila’s extension of power continue, killing 6 last week. Without greater international commitment, the political instability in the country will likely continue to fuel mass atrocities.

8. Ethiopia

Outbreaks of ethnic violence between the Oromo, who are predominantly farmers, and Ethiopian-Somalis, who are predominantly pastoralists, have displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians in Ethiopia. Tensions have been exacerbated because of the ongoing drought, which has contributed to economic insecurity and increased the risk of malnutrition throughout the country. Near the end of the year, anti-government protests regarding the marginalization and oppression of opposition groups emerged. Ethiopian military forces have responded by killing dozens of protesters. These tensions are likely to worsen in 2018 if the causes of these protests remain unaddressed.

9. Nigeria

Although the Nigerian military has regained control of most of the territory once controlled by Boko Haram, the crisis in northeastern Nigeria has not ended. Millions of people are desperately in need of humanitarian aid, and as the military pulls back from the countryside to fortify their control over cities and towns, many citizens living in rural areas are left vulnerable to attacks by Boko Haram. The Nigerian military has also been accused of various human rights abuses, including sexual abuse and arbitrary detention. In addition to the struggle against Boko Haram, there has also been renewed violence in the Niger Delta committed by militants expressing their displeasure with the lack of development assistance provided to the region by the Nigerian government.

10. Syria

In the past year, due to extensive support by allies Russia and Iran, ineffectiveness of Syrian rebel groups, and a lack of U.S. diplomatic engagement, President Bashar al-Assad has consolidated control over much of Syria, making implementation of the Geneva process, which would require the installation of a transitional government, far less likely. Instead, the Syrian government is meeting in Russia as part of the Sochi talks, which has alarmed opposition groups. The opposition fears these talks will only allow Assad to solidify his control of Syria. Government forces recently killed dozens of civilians in Eastern Ghouta during a military offensive against the Idlib province, the largest remaining rebel stronghold, demonstrating a willingness to continue bombing civilian infrastructure and a reliance on siege tactics to seize and hold territory. They also have continued to block humanitarian assistance to territory held by rebel groups. If the United States continues its current policy trajectory—wherein it focuses solely on terrorism while ignoring the civil war—Assad will be able to solidify his control in Syria, which will likely result in increased atrocities.

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Justin Cole is the Policy Coordinator for STAND: The Student-Led Movement to End Mass Atrocities, and a senior at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where he is earning his degree in economics and peace, war, and defense.

Believed to be the result of man-made acts, Cholera has stolen around 2,000 innocent lives in the span of less than 6 months in Yemen. The country’s ongoing civil war has made aid delivery very difficult. Cholera became a prominent issue in April, and it has already become the worst in history. To put this in perspective, the second worst was Haiti between the years of 2010 and 2017, where the number topped 800,000. In Yemen, this number was surpassed in a mere six months. Those who are more vulnerable or prone to struggle with this disease are ones who are weak and helpless, including young children, starving and malnourished people, and pregnant women and their fetuses. More than half of Cholera victims are younger than 18 years old, and 26% of those children are younger than 5. This epidemic is also robbing unborn children of their lives, before they even have a chance to start them.

Because Yemen is still in the midst of a three year civil war, pitting the Houthi rebel movement against the Saudi-led coalition that stands by President Hadi, the country has not prioritized aiding citizens affected by this epidemic. More than half of the country’s hospitals and clinics have been shut down or destroyed due to bombings and airstrikes. This leaves Yemeni people with no one to turn to in their time of need. Organizations such as World Health Organization and UNICEF have partnered up to act and provide health care in efforts to save lives, and UNICEF has already donated more than 4 million packs of rehydration salts, and 800,000 bags of intravenous fluids. Despite their work, the continued conditions of the war-torn country have also made delivering vaccines and aid extremely difficult, and in July of this year, the United Nations and WHO suspended their cholera vaccine plan in Yemen. George Koury, head of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Yemen, stated that “It was decided by the professionals that all the risks and the potential problems may outweigh the benefits of administering the vaccine.”

Without increased action, Yemen will continue to suffer from this epidemic and looming famine. Given the lack of access to clean water, sanitation systems, and solid infrastructure, there is no way Yemenis will be able to combat this crisis on their own – but you can help! If we ensure that the United States acts to end the conflict, we can limit the amount of destruction in the country, and pave the way for humanitarian aid and action. Check out STAND’s work to alleviate the crisis and get involved by visiting our #YemenAid action page here.

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Fay Alzahrani is a junior at Terre Haute South Vigo High School in Terre Haute, Indiana. This is her first year as a part of the Communication Task Force at STAND. Born in Saudi Arabia, Fay Alzahrani currently studies abroad in Terre Haute, IN.

Read below for some snapshots of the work they did this year. 

Save Aleppo

In the winter, the situation in Syria notably worsened in the besieged city of Aleppo. As the Assad regime stepped up its use of sieges and rebels lost territory, many called for action to help the individuals of Aleppo. STAND activists responded to the crisis by writing op-eds, urging Members of Congress in the US to vocally and vigorously push for civilian protection measures, including evacuating civilians, and fast-tracking the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which we will continue to support in the coming school year. Check out a few of our published student op-eds here and here!

Books Not Bombs

This year, STAND continued our partnership with Students Organize for Syria, working with students to urge universities to create scholarships for Syrian refugees. This campaign has been a huge success. The petition has gained over 20,000 signatures, three universities have committed to create scholarships for refugees, and a fellowship has been developed to assist refugee students with supplementary funding for their education. To learn more and get involved, visit www.books-not-bombs.com.

Free Jean-Marie

Last spring, STAND launched a campaign to bring attention to the unlawful imprisonment of young activists by the Congolese government. We particularly focused on Jean-Marie Kalonji, a recent law graduate and young pro-democracy organizer who was kidnapped by the Congolese intelligence agency in December 2015.

Using the hashtag #FreeJeanMarie, STAND students engaged senators using the power of social media to raise Jean-Marie’s plight. Earlier this semester, Jean-Marie and other activists were released from prison. While advocacy for human rights in Congo is ongoing, this campaign demonstrated the impact student activism can have in pressuring foreign governments.

#IlEstTemps – The Time is Now

In December, Congolese elections were held. As the deadline for President Joseph Kabila to step down approached without an announcement that he would leave, Congolese took to the streets to call for free and fair elections. The STAND Managing Committee took action, issuing a statement of solidarity with pro-democracy protesters, and working with Friends of the Congo to encourage students to stand in solidarity with Congolese activists who were calling “Il Est Temps” – “The Time is Now” for democracy in Congo.

Together We Remember

Throughout history, the month of April has been both a celebration of life and renewal and a month of horrible carnage and loss, and has long been recognized as Genocide Awareness and Prevention Month. For the second year, STAND partnered with #TogetherWeRemember to host over 25  commemorative name-readings at schools and in communities across the U.S. From the University of Southern California to Brooklyn Tech High School in New York City, students across the country read aloud names of victims of genocide and mass atrocities throughout history to honor the lives lost – and to take action to prevent future atrocities. Sign up to host your own #TogetherWeRemember event this April at www.togetherweremember.org!

STANDFest

STAND worked this semester to partner with filmmakers to offer screenings of films related to genocide and mass atrocities to chapters across the country. Along with the films, STAND provided action items for students to make a difference. Terre Haute South Vigo High School STAND partnered with the CANDLES Holocaust Museum in Indiana to hold the first “STANDFest,” a film festival of learning and action. Interested in planning a screening or STANDfest in your community? Get in touch with us at info@standnow.org!

R2P Journal Collaboration

This year, STAND partnered with The Responsibility to Protect (R2P) Student Journal, a global, student-led, free online journal founded in 2015 by a group of students from the University of Leeds and the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies. The journal aims to provide a platform for undergraduate and postgraduate students to publish academic work on R2P and related topics, including international humanitarian law, human rights, international criminal justice, and genocide and mass atrocity prevention. You can check out our  first joint issue here, including an article by former STAND Student Director Francesca Freeman!

Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act

The Elie Wiesel Act seeks to improve the U.S. ability to protect civilians around the world by creating a governmental working group focused on genocide and atrocities prevention, and authorizing the Complex Crises Fund (CCF), a small funding pot that allows the U.S. to quickly allocate funds to alleviate emerging crises. While a similar bill failed to pass last year, we have continued to build support. Last semester, STAND activists across the country asked Members of Congress to cosponsor the legislation. All the pressure paid off: the Senate bill, S. 1158 led by Senators Thom Tillis (R-NC), Todd Young (R-IN), and Ben Cardin (D-MD) has 26 cosponsors, and a House companion bill, H.R. 3030, was recently introduced by Representatives Ann Wagner (R-MO) and Joe Crowley (D-NY) and has 30 cosponsors. We hope you will join us this year in pushing for this vital policy issue!

Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act

The Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act aims to alleviate violence currently transpiring in Syria by implementing targeted sanctions on individuals with ties to the Assad regime in order to promote accountability to those perpetrating and financing atrocities. In addition to sanctions, the bill calls for an assessment of the potential effectiveness of both safe zones and no fly zones. Throughout the school year, STAND student leaders lobbied their representatives in favor of this legislation, leading to its passage in the House of Representatives last fall. As there was not time to build support and pass the bill in the Senate before the end of the year, we are continuing to work on this bill in the coming school year.

#StopArmingSaudi

Since the Yemeni civil war began in 2015, the Saudi government has intervened on behalf of the government while using American and European weapons to deliberately target Yemeni rebels and civilians. Both the Obama and Trump administrations have nevertheless persisted in selling arms to Saudi Arabia. Providing the Saudi government with more arms will only exacerbate the conflict and lead to more civilian harm. This spring, STAND students in key states urged their Congressional representatives to oppose the Saudi arms deals. While a 2016 bill to condemn the arms deal only received 27 “Yes” votes in the Senate, the 2017 resolution received 47, showing a significant increase in opposition to selling arms to Saudi Arabia.

#NoMuslimBan

Shortly into his first term, President Trump signed an Executive Order (EO) to drastically reduce refugee admissions and grind resettlement to a halt, specifically targeting refugees from seven Muslim-majority countries: Syria, Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Yemen, Libya, and Somalia. The EO, in what ultimately amounts to a Muslim Ban, threatened our refugee friends, family, and communities based on faulty and discriminatory premises. STAND students were vocal in opposing the ban, urging their Congressional representatives, local officials, governors, and beyond to make public statements against it, and by welcoming new arrivals at airports across the country. The EO is still being fought in court, and we will continue to advocate against this inhumane order.

#Don’tBlockadeAid

This spring, the Trump Administration proposed a budget that would implement enormous cuts to funding for the State Department, foreign aid, and the United Nations. STAND students wrote letters, op-eds, and called Congressional representatives to insist that we should invest more, not less, in peacekeeping, development, and US diplomatic efforts. STAND’s grassroots network will continue to speak up on budget issues in the coming year, protecting the world’s most vulnerable people who benefit from this funding and bolstering America’s capacity to make “Never Again” a reality.

Kayla Mueller Medical Supply Drive

In honor of Kayla Mueller, a dedicated STAND alumna who was tragically killed in 2015 while doing aid work on the border of Syria, STAND has partnered with Students Organizing For Syria and the Syrian American Medical Society to organize the Kayla Mueller Medical Supply Drive. The goal of this drive is to collect donated medical and dental supplies and machines from generous hospitals and practices. STAND students are writing to and visiting local hospitals in their communities to request donated materials. SOS and SAMS are coordinating to ship these materials overseas.

#RiseForRohingya

This year, STAND, in partnership with The Nexus Fund, asked activists to #RiseforRohingya by fundraising for youth leadership programs in Burma, where the Rohingya minority ethnic group is at severe risk of genocide. We have raised nearly $5,000 to train young Burmese leaders to identify and respond to various threats to peace in their communities, focusing especially on the effects of hate speech. With your help, STAND hopes to reach its goal of $7,500 this summer! Check it out and donate here.

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As always, the success of STAND relies on the activism of individual students and chapters across the country. As we enter our 13th year of anti-atrocity work, we want to give a direct, sincere, and deep thank you to every single one of you that has helped carry this mission with you in your day-to-day life and actions.

This week’s update focuses on violence against the Rohingya by the Burmese military; an appeal by the UN for more funding to assist with the humanitarian crisis in Yemen where Yemenis are not only facing violence, but also starvation and lack of medical care; and attempts at Syria peace talks planned for this week in Geneva.

Southeast Asia

Burma

UN officials have reported on Burma’s persistent ethnic cleansing targeting the Rohingya population and forcing their mass evacuation from the country. While the government still denies any abuse, the BBC released a video documenting victim accounts of the violence. Victims reported that the military has burned their houses and mosques and brutally murdered their family members. The UN and other human rights investigators are calling on the Myanmar government to end these mass atrocities.

At the beginning of the month, a Malaysian ship docked in Yangon, Burma to deliver food, clothing, and medicine to the persecuted Rohingya was met by Buddhist monks and protesters as well as health workers and activists. Malaysian aid workers reportedly trusted that the Myanmar government would hand over the 2,300 tons of food, clothing and medicine to Rakhine state where around 1 million Rohingya reside. Razali Ramli, who helped organize the shipment, stated, “We have to respect Myanmar’s sovereignty.” He felt that they handed over the supplies “in good faith.”

Middle East and North Africa

Yemen

The humanitarian situation in Yemen remains precarious, raging on without a clear end in sight. Humanitarian organizations and the international community remain concerned about the development of a crisis that touches the lives of millions of Yemenis due to the lack of access to medical facilities, medical care and supplies, food, and other basic necessities. There is severe need throughout the country, but particularly for those in hard-to-reach areas. In response, the UN has appealed for over two billion dollars in funding for 2017.

Despite slow advances, President Hadi’s forces retook the south-west port city of Mokha at the end of last month, which was seized by the Houthis in December 2014. Dozens of families fled the clashes and bombardment in Mokha. Violence has also hit the Saudi border, and the Saudi-led coalition lost seven Saudi soldiers on February 14 in clashes with the Houthi rebels. This incident highlights the continued influence of foreign parties in the conflict.

The violence continues to rage without signs of abating, as countless efforts at peace talks have been exhausted without a long-term deal. However, the dynamics of the conflict have great potential to change as developments in the Middle East as well as changes in foreign policy for nations involved in the conflict begin to have an impact on the war.

Syria

The Geneva Talks scheduled for February 23 are anticipated to assist a collaborative dialogue between President Assad’s government representatives, various opposition figures, and rebels fighting within the Syrian borders.

The UN envoy to Syria, Staffan De Mistura, says negotiating a political transition for the war-torn country will be the sole item on the agenda for upcoming talks between the government and opposition in Geneva. U.S. News comments that De Mistura said the agenda is “fixed in UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which mandates a new form of governance for Syria, a new constitution, and new elections.”

The attendees were slated to arrive in Geneva on February 20. According to information reported by Rudaw, Bashar Jafar and a Kurdish member of the Syrian parliament will head the Syrian government’s delegation. Furthermore, Rudaw says that “the Syrian opposition will send 21 delegates to be headed by Nasr al-Hariri,” and that Fouad Aliko, a member of the Kurdish National Council (KNC, ENKS) will head the Kurdish representation within the opposition groups.” However, some rebel leaders refuse any negotiation talks until the current government reinforces the current ceasefire and addresses humanitarian concerns.

This will be the first time since the suspension of the April 2016 talks that the Syrian regime and opposition delegations have returned to Geneva.

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Emily Lyford is STAND’s Southeast Asia Coordinator, focusing mainly on Burma. She is a freshman at the University of New Hampshire where she majors in Neuroscience and Behavior.

Ana Delgado is STAND’s Middle East and North Africa Coordinator, focusing mainly on Syria. She is a junior at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, majoring in Political Science and Peace, War, and Defense.

Jason Qu is STAND’s Emerging Conflicts Coordinator, focusing today on Yemen. He is a Senior at Bronx High School of Science.

1) Syria

2016 was a disastrous year for an already horrific conflict, as the Assad regime stepped up its use of sieges and as the fight for Aleppo last month became even harsher than many expected. The rebels are increasingly weak, particularly more moderate factions, and many rebels and civilians who were in formerly rebel-held territory, particularly around Aleppo, have been pushed into Idlib. The possibility remains that civilians that survived the brutal siege of Aleppo will once again face similar circumstances as the Syrian government and its allies push to retake further opposition territory. The U.S.,an increasingly peripheral player in the conflict, was left out of the most recent round of peace talks, and President-Elect Trump seems likely to withdraw support with the opposition and increase cooperation with Russia, a main ally of Assad. Turkey has also become more cooperative with Russia and is now focusing on combatting Kurdish influence rather than supporting the opposition. Already struggling after recent territorial losses, the Islamic State will also likely lose influence in 2017.

2) South Sudan

Having already caused immense suffering since its start in 2013, South Sudan’s civil war threatens to spiral even further in 2017. Originally caused by a split between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, the SPLM-IO—Machar’s side—has split. Kiir appointed Taban Deng Gai to replace Machar as Vice President, and his decision to force Machar out of the country has left his supporters feeling unrepresented. The repeated failure of political negotiations has led many actors to see violence as their only route to power. Ethnic divisions have also solidified, and the region of Equatoria in particular has seen increased violence. This combination of factors has led to increasingly dire warnings, with the UN announcing that ethnic cleansing is already underway. The international response has been underwhelming, with the UN unable to come to an agreement on a potential arms embargo.

3) Burma (Myanmar)

The Muslim ethnic minority group, the Rohingya, has long lived in dire conditions, stripped of citizenship and often forced to live in internally displaced people (IDP) camps. Described as the world’s group most at risk of genocide, there is an ever-lingering risk of a spark setting off mass violence. Aung San Suu Kyi, the de facto leader of the country, and the National League for Democracy (NLD) have shown little interest in the Rohingya and seemingly lack the ability to control the military, who is in charge of managing the situation in Rakhine State. Security forces and members of the Rakhine ethnic group have both perpetrated violence against Rohingya, and the October killing of several police officers—with a group of Rohingya accused to be the attackers—has raised tensions. There are also reports that some Rohingya have reacted to their continued subjection through the creation of an insurgency. However, Rohingya know from experience that any violence they may perpetrate would likely lead to retaliation against Rohingya civilians. Reports of a plan among security forces to arm non-Muslim civilians also raise fears of increased violence. Should the situation deteriorate, almost no Burmese actors seem ready to come to the Rohingya’s defense. As the crisis continues, the government must reconsider its approach to the issue, build positive relations between the majority Buddhist and minority Muslim populations, and cease the use of excessive force against civilians, lest they precipitate the growth of a small number of Rohingya insurgents.

Additionally, ethnic groups around the country—such as the eastern Shan, Karen, Kokang, and Kachin, Ta’ang, and Arakan, now in an alliance—are politically sidelined and face violence at the hands of Myanmar government militias, even after Aung San Suu Kyi’s 21-Century Panglong Conference. There is speculation that the NLD is keeping quiet on the military’s blockade of transport and aid in these areas due to pre-election agreements with the military. Tensions and periodic violence seem unlikely to cease in 2017.

4) Sudan

Sudan is primed for significant violence against civilians in 2017, but much of it may remain out of the public spotlight. The Sudanese government has cut off access for journalists and aid workers to areas where it has conducted attacks on civilians, including much of Darfur, and many believe violence in Darfur may be returning towards levels from the height of the conflict. Huge numbers of internally displaced people remain in Sudan with almost no access to aid and few means to support themselves. In addition to Darfur, the Sudanese government continues to bomb civilians in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states. In an extremely alarming development in the conflict, Amnesty International also found evidence of 30 likely chemical attacks against civilians from January to September 2016. There is unlikely to be any large reduction of violence in 2017, as peace talks have broken down and the government remains invested in crushing rebellion. Sudan is also facing reduced international pressure. Many European governments have proved willing to support Sudan in order to prevent refugees from reaching their shores, while the U.S. is rumored to be preparing to lift sanctions.

5) Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Despite recent progress, uncertainty over President Kabila’s willingness to step down as president suggests conflict could escalate in the country in 2017. Kabila is constitutionally mandated to step down after two terms, and his second term was mandated to end in December 2016. After his pasts effort to amend the constitution to allow a third term failed, Kabila implemented various measures to push back his exit date, frequently citing concerns about the country’s readiness to conduct elections. A recent deal brokered by the Catholic Church calls for President Kabila to step down and elections to be held by the end of 2017, but it is unclear whether Kabila will respect the deal. If he does not, violence will likely escalate as hundreds have already been killed in confrontations between police and protesters. Armed groups outside urban areas have also used ongoing political uncertainty to gain influence and territory. Meanwhile, the largest cause of civilian death in the DRC remains insurgencies in the country’s east, though these groups are far less powerful and are more splintered than they were at their peak.

6) Yemen

Though unlikely to escalate significantly, Yemen’s devastating conflict seems likely to grind on. The conflict has moved towards equilibrium with no side strong enough to win, but both also unwilling to give up. On one side of the conflict is the former Yemeni government of Abd Mansur Hadi, heavily backed by a Saudi-led coalition. The Saudis are certain to continue their bombings, as they believe the defeat of the Hadi government would advantage their rival, Iran. The US continues to back the coalition, albeit more tentatively, as a recent decision to block an arms sale signifies. For their part, Hadi’s government has little power but maintains some influence in the south. On the other side, the Houthi rebels maintain control of much of the country, including the capital Sana’a, but are struggling to govern. They remain in an uneasy alliance with former president Ali Abdullah Saleh and receive limited support from Iran. Saudi bombings have frequently hit civilians and the conflict has devastated the economy. Hunger is extremely widespread and the Saudi coalition has repeatedly blocked the delivery of aid, continuously bombing major ports and further threatening aid delivery.

7) Burundi

President Pierre Nkurunziza’s decision to seek what is considered by many to be an unconstitutional third term sparked recent conflict in Burundi. Although he is now securely placed in his third term, the situation is far from resolution. Extrajudicial executions continue and thousands have died throughout the course of the conflict. The conflict has remained primarily political rather than ethnic, but there are signs that violence against Tutsi could increase. The Burundian government’s decision to leave the International Criminal Court suggests that their human rights record will not soon improve, and the recent assassination of a government official also raises tensions. Peace talks have stalled since July, when the government pulled out of the talks. Opposition groups were upset last month when chief mediator, former Tanzania President Benjamin Mkapa, urged them to look toward the 2020 elections, seeming to ignore their concerns about the 2015 election. In this context, talks seem unlikely to resume, as the opposition feels slighted, and Nkurunziza feels that he can retain power with no real resistance. An armed insurgency in exile remains capable of conducting attacks, though it holds relatively little power and is unlikely to seriously threaten Nkurunziza’s government. Still, as long as they are denied political rights there is the possibility that more opposition supporters will choose to use violence.

8) Ethiopia

Ethiopia has suffered significant unrest over the last year after protests emerged in the Oromia region. Originally concentrated on feelings of underrepresentation and marginalization of the Oromo ethnic group, the protests have spread to the Amhara region and have given voice to discontent with the government. Long seen as a champion of an authoritarian development model, Ethiopia has cracked down heavily on the protests and shown few signs of a democratic opening. Amnesty International has found that security forces have killed over 800 people since protests began in November 2015. With the opposition also growing increasingly disillusioned with the potential for peaceful change, potential for violence in 2017 is high.

9) Kenya

August’s elections could very well proceed successfully and represent democratic progress in Kenya, but they also hold significant potential for conflict. President Uhuru Kenyatta will be contested by Raila Odinga in a repeat of the 2013 election. In the 2007 election, Odinga’s defeat led to violence killing around 1,000 people, while the 2013 election remained quite peaceful. It is unclear which path 2017 will take, but there are warning signs that suggest potential violence. Trust in IEBC, the electoral commission, is low, and blows to Kenyatta’s popularity may cause a highly competitive election. Further, despite demand, the Kenyatta government has struggled to provide reforms, and continued police brutality has incited protests and raised fears of a heavy-handed response in the case of post-election protests. In addition to national elections, 47 counties will also hold local elections, and as ethnic tensions in several parts of the country remain high, it will not take much for localized conflict to erupt.

10) Zimbabwe

92-year old President Robert Mugabe’s insistence on staying in power after 36 years in charge threatens to spark conflict in Zimbabwe. 2016 already saw increased resistance to Mugabe, with protests gaining ground in the summer. Youth activists, often using social media to spread messages such as that of previously unknown Pastor Evan Mawawire—the founder of the #ThisFlag movement to end corruption and increase government transparency and accountability—were at the heart of the protests. Police cracked down heavily on protesters, but calls continued to urge Mugabe to step down immediately, rather than wait for elections in 2018 when Mugabe intends to run for re-election. Ongoing economic problems have also damaged the popularity of Mugabe’s government. Still, the potential for Mugabe to be forced from power hinges on a number of uncertainties, including the strengthening of a divided opposition and the military’s loyalty to Mugabe. Two things remain quite a bit more certain: that Mugabe will not cede power easily and many Zimbabweans will wish he would.

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Timmy Hirschel-Burns is a senior at Swarthmore College majoring in Political Science and is STAND’s Policy Coordinator. You can follow him on Twitter at @TimH_B.

Featured photo is by The White Helmets.