To address this displacement, the government has planned to allocate about 51,000 flats to residents to solve the shortage of housing. The apartments are located in the southern outskirt of Addis Ababa, in Koye Feche. This operated using a lottery, where the winners were required to register for housing. The different types of registration included a scheme called 20/80 and 40/60, where residents were asked to save 20% and the government would provide a loan to help with the 80%. This was also applied to those who could save 40%. Those who saved 100%, were allegedly told they were entitled to apartments, leaving many residents upset, especially those who were unable to save 20%. Victims of this lottery are mostly farmers, who are struggling to make ends meet and have a low chance of winning the lottery due to low income. Takele Uma, the mayor of the capital, stated that he sympathized with the pain of “those who have lost [their] farmlands in order to clean for the these housing projects”.

In the beginning of March, about 12,000 of the homes were allocated by the Addis Ababa administration. The Oromo people, the most populous ethnic group in Ethiopia, have claimed that the government is acting out of “jurisdiction” because they are not considering the local Oromia government. Many protesters are carrying banners saying “our land is our bones,” hoping to stop the housing allocations.

This forced displacement has impacted the lives of the Oromian Ethiopians, especially for those who cannot register for housing. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, a reformist from the Oromia region, should address the concerns of his own people.  

__

Aisha Saleem is a member of the STAND Communications Task Force. She is a first year at Barnard College in New York and is passionate about human rights and interested in urban studies.

Ahmed’s upbringing— his own father a Muslim Oromo and his mother Christian—  shaped his identity and understanding of the differences and conflicts between ethnic and religious groups in Ethiopia. This, coupled with his education, has allowed him to create a modern and liberal political agenda that creates a promising future for Ethiopians. Although it has only been a few months into his term, Ethiopians around the world are calling it  ‘historic’.

One of Ahmed’s most recent controversial and clever tactics included a three-city tour in America in which he talked to thousands of Ethiopians about a unified identity. His knowledge of English in addition to Oromo, Amharic, and Tigrinya allowed him to directly speak to the Ethiopians. He urged the importance of identifying as an Ethiopian, stating that “if you want to be the pride of your generation, then you must decide that Oromos, Amharas, Wolaytas, Gurages, and Sites are all equally Ethiopian.” This is a direct reinforcement of his famous campaign slogan “Break the Wall, Build the Bridge”, which is a reference to his agenda in nationalizing the people of his country. The Minnesotan crowd, mostly with Oromo Ethiopians, cheered, even sporting apparel representing Ahmed’s slogans and their Ethiopian pride. Minnesotan Ethiopians expressed a sense of relief and joy that Ahmed came directly to America to speak with them.

Another agenda item was to discuss the reforms regarding violence in Ethiopia. The recent violent outbreaks between two Ethiopian ethnic groups, Ormo and Somali, led to thousands of displaced families and injured people. This was labeled as a ‘humanitarian crisis’ by the Minnesota Council City Member, and Minnesotans urged change. Although Ahmed has not resolved the issue at hand, he has made an important step towards preventing future conflicts by discussing it. Additionally, he has closed the Makelawi detention center, which has been consistently described as a ‘torture chamber,’ and which is infamous for the detainment of the chairman of Oromon Federalist Congress Bekele Gerba. Many of its prisoners were transferred into the Addis Abbeia detention facility, and some were even released. This is a big step towards human rights reforms, which has consistently been pressured upon ever since its multitude of human rights violations.

In addition to visiting American cities and interacting with fellow Ethiopians, Ahmed also spoke with Vice President Mike Pence about issues concerning another East African country: South Sudan. South Sudan is known for its past history with Sudan and the current displacement of 4 million people due to its internal civil war. Ahmed expressed interest in South Sudan’s oil resources and considered the opportunities for economic prosperity for both countries. The Grand Renaissance Dam, expected to more than double Ethiopia’s current electricity production, is scheduled to be completed in a few years, however, Ethiopia still needs oil to power it. Ahmed proposed an economic agreement that he seeks to pursue in the future.
In pursuit of such an agreement, Ahmed has recently welcomed all South Sudanese with open arms, following the Kenyan police attack on South Sudan. As the Kenyan police tortured and displaced thousands of families, the South Sudanese looked towards Ahmed for comfort as he was recorded praising his East African identity and South Sudan itself, stating “we are brothers” and  “South Sudan is a great country, and you will need it in the future”. His praise of South Sudan came from his understanding of what civil war can do to a country. He also further introduced the idea of identity, claiming “we are members of the East African Community”. The sense of unity that Ahmed brings gives hope to the future of the Ethiopian and Sudanese relationship and their respective economies.

—

Aisha Saleem is a member of the STAND Communications Task Force. She is a first year at Barnard College in New York, and is undecided about her major. She is passionate about human rights and interested in urban studies

Burma

Earlier this week ,the U.S. announced that they will withdraw their assistance from Burmese units and officers involved in the violence against the Rohingya. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson did not critique Aung San Suu Kyi’s civilian government for the humanitarian crisis, but held Burma’s military leadership accountable.

State Department Spokesperson Heather Nauert reported that the U.S. is “exploring accountability mechanisms under U.S. law,” specifically the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act. This act allows the president to block or revoke visas of certain foreign individuals and entities, or to impose property sanctions on them. This has the potential to further impede injustices committed by the Burmese military. The U.S. lifted these sanctions last year, after Burma began making more significant moves towards democratization.
Furthermore, both Burmaand Bangladesh have signed two agreements aiming to strengthen border security and cooperation. Mostafa Kamal Uddin, Bangladesh Home Secretary, praised this agreement, hopeful that it will foster a way for the Rohingya to return home safely, and with dignity. However, neither country has yet to release any specific, planned steps for the repatriation, especially because Burma previously claimed military operations ceased on Sept. 5.

Sudan and South Sudan

South Sudan

Under the Magnitsky Act, Canada has decided to impose sanctions on three officials from South Sudan. These sanctions go further than previous Canadian sanctions, freezing the assets of the officials in question. These sanctions are indicative of wider institutional problems in South Sudan. According to The Sentry, South Sudan has several key attributes that make it susceptible to corruption. South Sudan’s vast majority of wealth is held in natural resources, which leads government elites to control the majority of South Sudan’s immense, but not very liquid wealth. This further incentivizes them to hold on to their wealth, explaining why the state has such tight controls over the economy and the budget, while also having corporatist tendencies. South Sudan’s corruption and corporate ties are only intensified by the existence of no-bid contracts that allow for officials to give lucrative projects to companies that are partially owned by those same government officials. In addition, the fragile financial system makes it very easy to siphon money out of the country.

The economic future of refugees has been a top priority of the UNHCR, especially for South Sudanese arriving  without any assets. Per request of the UN, South Sudanese refugees have been permitted to work as laborers in the farms of the White Nile region of Sudan. Not only is the UN providing refugees an opportunity to learn useful skills, but it is also creating a framework whereby refugees can integrate better into their host countries. According to an OCHA report, 40 to 50 percent of the refugee population have started to work on these farms.

Political instability continues in South Sudan, as one of President Kiir’s army chiefs, Paul Malong, has been restricted to his home, now surrounded by troops. Malong was suspected of joining opposition forces after being fired for leading anti-Nuer pogroms in Juba last year. Because of his divisive actions, he was fired by Kiir and sanctioned by the US.

South Sudan

In August, the Sudanese Vice President authorized an effort to disarm rebel groups and citizens in the Darfur region, voluntarily or coercively.  Unfortunately, this effort has been hampered by a lack of funds to assist coercing individuals or groups that continue to resist this initiative. So far, the government has collected 30,000 out of the estimated 700,000 illegal arms harbored in Darfur. Tribal leaders have shown the most resistance and are willing to militarily confront any state force if necessary. The movement of state forces into Darfur has occurred in tandem with the reignition of the conflict between the Ma’alia and Rizeigat tribes. As a show of force, 93 tribal leaders have been arrested and a peaceful demonstration at the South Darfur Kalma Camp was quashed violently, with 6 people dead and 28 injured. This has warranted international condemnation and a call by the US embassy for Sudan to launch an immediate investigation into this instance.

During a diplomatic trip to Khartoum on November 1st, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir addressed the claim that South Sudan has been supporting Sudanese opposition groups. During a meeting with Kiir’s Sudanese counterpart, Omar al-Bashir, Kiir assured him that he would end all support to these opposition groups. Kiir nevertheless rebuked any criticism of his actions saying Sudan was a primary supplier of arms for South Sudanese opposition groups and that Bashir too had supported and even housed some of Kiir’s opposition. Despite this rhetoric, both nations remained conciliatory and made several compromises to end their strenuous relationship, which Kiir believes fuels the ideology of violent rebel groups. This manifested in their agreement to completely demarcate their long border and thereby finally make their demilitarized zone operational.

Middle East and North Africa

Egypt

Egypt’s Al-Aqrab prison is housing an ongoing hunger strike in protest of poor living conditions.

This notorious prison, officially named Tora Maximum Security Prison, is more commonly known by its nickname, the Scorpion. A 2016 report by Human Rights Watch details the gross human rights violations to which prisoners are subjected, including beatings, torture, lack of medical care, and psychological abuse.

The emphasis on Scorpion by human rights groups and news outlets does not mean abusesin other Egyptian prisons has been overlooked. Yet, it is crucial to note that Scorpion “has re-emerged as the central site for those deemed enemies of the state,” and thus, its prisoners are particular targets of government entities. Human Rights Watch explains that the Tora “sits at the end of the state’s repressive pipeline, overseen at nearly all points by the Interior Ministry and its internal security service, the National Security Agency.”

In September, about 80% of the prisoners began a hunger strike against Scorpion employees and Egyptian government’s vile humanitarian offenses. Their complaints included: unwarranted banned family visits, malnourishment; a lack of medical care, confinement, and weather-appropriate clothing. These basic needs are crucial to human dignity, regardless of actual or supposed criminal activity.

This is not the first time prisoners have started a hunger strike at Tora. In March 2016, Al-Jazeera reported on “Egypt’s Guantanamo,” citing similar complaints among prisoners. At the time, the head of the Arab Organization for Human Rights, Mohamed Gameel, in the UK,, said the “Egyptian government would not react unless there was immense pressure from the international community.”

Horn of Africa

Somalia

On October 15, the Somali capital of Mogadishu was devastated by a deadly double car bombing attack which resulted in upwards of 300 confirmed casualties. Surrounding details that emerged soon after have all but confirmed al-Shaabab’s implication in the attack, presenting a major challenge in Somalia’s decade long battle against the militant Islamist group. The attack came as US military officials have increased drone strikes and counter-insurgency efforts.: It has become increasingly clear that accruing military elements to secure the country must come with something more. In a recently released UN article, researchers found that state-sponsored counterterrorism efforts across Africa have systematically increased levels of extremist violence, with 71% of former terrorists indicating that “government action” was the primary factor in joining a terrorist group.

Despite these findings, the front against terrorism following the attack has been primarily militaristic. In the weeks following the attack, the African Union deployed troops in the Lower Shabelle region, for the first time in two years since the AU formally launched an operation against al-Shaabab). The offensive, given the American administration’s relaxed rules of engagement effective March, is likely to contribute to a rise in civilian casualties in the region. Recent investigation has shown that in the Somali city of Bariire, for example, the United States operated on misleading intelligence, which contributed to accidental casualties, which only exacerbate terrorist threats. A week ago, al-Shaabab once again carried out an attack on Mogadishu, killing 23 people at the Nasa-Hablod hotel. On November 7th, al-Shaabab executed four men accused of spying for the Ethiopian and Kenyan governments. As the military response to the terrorist attack builds, it is difficult to predict to what extent the situation will improve.

Meanwhile, tensions in Ethiopia have come to a head as soldiers shot and killed 10 civilians protesting an unfair allocation of food supplies in the region of Oromia. This event underscores the underlying anger of many ethnic Oromo, who claim that the federal government has unequally distributed wealth in favor of other ethnic groups. After the protests dwindled, soldiers were stationed across the region to intimidate civilians and enforce rule of law. This rapid military response has cast doubt on Addis Ababa’s competence in effectively responding to civil protest, while others look to the new Oromo regional administration, which has recently promoted a ethno-nationalist agenda. The mounting instability in the region has captured regional and international attention, raising questions about the federal relationship between Oromia and Addis Ababa, and future grievances in the region.

Great Lakes Region

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Following the turbulent month of October, in which the national Electoral Commission announced elections would not be held until late 2018 at the earliest, two United Nations peacekeepers were killed, and the United Nations declared D.R. Congo an L3 emergency (on par with nations such as Yemen and Iraq). A United Nations watchdog reported on November 9th that militia groups, comprised primarily of child soldiers, continue to commit widespread human rights abuses despite years of warnings. The country’s National Human Rights Commission has been unable to act upon these abuses without funding, which they have gone without since March, and are restricted to operations within the capital city of Kinshasa.

 The Tanganyika province in the southeast of the country has suffered from some of the highest levels of violence and displacement, especially in recent months. On November 1st, the independent aid organization, Norwegian Refugee Council, released a humanitarian assessment documenting squalid living conditions, wherethe majority of internally displaced peoples have no access to clean water, shelter, or latrines. They conclude that a mass outbreak of disease is likely, and that there are not enough humanitarian aid organizations in the region to organize an adequate humanitarian response to such an event.

 On November 7th, at the 730th meeting of the African Union, the organization’s Peace and Security Council evaluated the results of a four day field mission led by the Burundian ambassador to the AU. The Council adopted a resolution reaffirming the AU’s support for a free and democratic Congo, insisting upon the public release of an elections schedule, and expressing concern about continued human rights abuses.

In a positive development, eighteen people were brought to trial on November 9th for charges of child rape, murder, and organization of an armed group. Though the significant delay of the beginning of the trial and the short initial proceedings of a mere twenty minutes have raised fears that a mistrial is possible, experts suggest there is evidence that the DRC is serious about prosecuting those accused of such crimes. In the past few years, the country has somewhat increased its efforts to combat sexual violence and has successfully prosecuted even high-level military commanders. These efforts have only targeted a tiny proportion of the crimes committed, however.

Burundi

 The crisis in Burundi will be addressed again at the United Nations in November, when the Secretary General’s Special-Envoy will present his findings to the Security Council. The briefing is expected to focus on key recent developments, such as ongoing human rights abuses and the stalling of inter-Burundian peace talks facilitated by the East African Community (EAC),  a regional intergovernmental organization. According to the Security Council’s monthly forecast, the security situation in Burundi has been stable as of late, though this guise of peace is likely unsustainable and the report predicts an escalation of violence between the government and opposition should conditions fail to change.

On November 9, the International Criminal Court granted prosecutors authority to launch an investigation into human rights abuses in Burundi. This follows only days after October 27, when Burundi became the first nation to formally withdraw from the ICC. Any investigation will likely build off of claims made in a United Nations report in September, which documented extrajudicial killings, rape, torture, and other human rights abuses. The Burundian government has announced that it will not cooperate with any investigation.

–

Sael Soni is STAND’s Horn of Africa Coordinator. Sael is a freshman at Vanderbilt University. His interests lay mostly in understanding the dynamics of post-Colonial Latin America and the intersection of human rights and economic policy.

Ana Delgado is STAND’s Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Coordinator. Ana Delgado is a senior at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. She is studying Political Science and Peace, War, & Defense while minoring in Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies. After graduation, Ana hopes to pursue a law degree with an emphasis on human rights.

Soham Mehta is STAND’s Sudan and South Sudan Coordinator.

Caroline Brammer is STAND’s Southeast Asia Coordinator. Caroline is a sophomore majoring in Media and Journalism with a minor in Medical Anthropology at UNC Chapel Hill. She is eager to delve into her role as a member of the Education Task Force for Southeast Asia and excited to learn how she can influence change while on the other side of the world. She enjoys painting, writing, trekking, humanitarian work, and loves travelling above all else.

Rhiannon Winner is STAND’s Great Lakes of Africa Coordinator, focusing mainly on the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Burundi. She is a junior at Gettysburg College where she double majors in Political Science and Public Policy.

In January, after 140 people had been killed, the government decided to withdraw the plan. In a statement, government officials claimed to have “huge respect” for the Oromo and explained that the opposition to the plan was based on a misunderstanding. For many protesters, this response was too little, too late. According to an Amnesty International report, even after the master plan was scrapped, the Ethiopian government continued to imprison Oromo leaders and marginalize members of the Oromo ethnic group. Protesters refused to go back home, and their demands broadened to include fair political representation and basic human rights protections. Though Ethiopia claims to be a democracy, countless hurdles impede the formation of rival political parties and their attempts to obtain power. For the Oromo, their oppression at the hands of the Tigrayans, who make up only 6% of the country’s population, is unacceptable. It is also nothing new. The Oromo have been marginalized since before 1973, which is when they formed the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF). When the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Party (EPRDF) came to power in 1991, the OLF joined the transitional government. Unfortunately, it was not long before the EPRDF created another Oromo party, the Oromo People’s Democratic Organization, in order to weaken the OLF. Now, the Oromo are back on the streets, fighting for their rights.

In July, the protests worsened, expanding into Ethiopia’s Amhara region. After the Oromo, the Amhara are the second largest ethnic group in Ethiopia, and over the past few months, tens of thousands have come together to demonstrate against government oppression and ethnic violence.

The government’s response has been brutal. Since the protests began, approximately 800 people have been killed. The police have responded to peaceful protests with violence, exacerbating the existing tensions: Al Jazeera reports that in one instance, the police fired tear gas and warning shots at a group of protesters attending a religious festival. When the protesters turned to run away, several people were crushed to death, leading to a total death toll of approximately 100 according to human rights groups, and 55 according to the government. Furthermore, the government has conducted mass arrests as part of a larger campaign to silence civilians. According to Al Jazeera, more than 11,000 people have been arrested since the demonstrations began last year. Of these, more than 300 are women. The government has also restrained free speech by shutting down all mobile Internet to prevent communications and isolate those dissidents outside of prison. On December 2, the government partially restored Internet, but social media and messaging platforms are still blocked throughout the country.

Unfortunately, the government refuses to acknowledge the valid concerns of Oromo and Amhara dissidents and the legitimacy of their protests. Rather, they have denounced dissidents for disturbing the peace. In a recent statement, a government spokesman vowed to hold those that “started” the chaos responsible. In another statement, a spokesman declared Egypt and Eritrea responsible for the violence, alluding to the possibility that the government would ban protests to try to end the unrest.

These protests have the ability to lead to political change. For the first time, the Oromo and Amhara oppositions have coalesced into a single force against the government, and now pose a greater threat to Ethiopia’s political leadership. The authoritarian regime’s increasing fear of subversion could make it more responsive to its citizens’ needs. The Oromo need a stable government just as much as the government needs the Oromia region—the source of much of Ethiopia’s food and most of its coffee (a large export).

Political change in Ethiopia is critical. The Oromo are a historically oppressed group that have not been offered the same economic and political opportunities as the Tigrayans. It is unlikely that the protests will end until the government acknowledges their legitimacy and agrees to implement reforms. For now, it is unlikely that the opposition will trust the current ruling coalition, the EPRDF, to make necessary changes. For years, it has simultaneously promised to implement reforms and violated human rights. Until they are truly held accountable to their people or a new coalition comes to power, hundreds more Ethiopian dissidents will likely be mercilessly killed and tortured, and thousands imprisoned.

In addition the the need for internal reforms, other countries must fundamentally change the way that they deal with Ethiopia. Human Rights Watch has called for influential countries, such as the US (Ethiopia’s largest donor) and the UK, to publicly condemn the Ethiopian government’s actions. These allies should also push for an international investigation of Ethiopia’s deteriorating human rights situation, both increasing increasing the transparency of how the Ethiopian government deals with dissidents and political opponents and sending a powerful message that such actions will not be tolerated. Now is not the time for the US to stay silent.

–

Amala Karri is STAND’s policy intern and attends Hunter College High School in New York.

Featured photo above provided by Reuters.

1) Syria

2016 was a disastrous year for an already horrific conflict, as the Assad regime stepped up its use of sieges and as the fight for Aleppo last month became even harsher than many expected. The rebels are increasingly weak, particularly more moderate factions, and many rebels and civilians who were in formerly rebel-held territory, particularly around Aleppo, have been pushed into Idlib. The possibility remains that civilians that survived the brutal siege of Aleppo will once again face similar circumstances as the Syrian government and its allies push to retake further opposition territory. The U.S.,an increasingly peripheral player in the conflict, was left out of the most recent round of peace talks, and President-Elect Trump seems likely to withdraw support with the opposition and increase cooperation with Russia, a main ally of Assad. Turkey has also become more cooperative with Russia and is now focusing on combatting Kurdish influence rather than supporting the opposition. Already struggling after recent territorial losses, the Islamic State will also likely lose influence in 2017.

2) South Sudan

Having already caused immense suffering since its start in 2013, South Sudan’s civil war threatens to spiral even further in 2017. Originally caused by a split between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, the SPLM-IO—Machar’s side—has split. Kiir appointed Taban Deng Gai to replace Machar as Vice President, and his decision to force Machar out of the country has left his supporters feeling unrepresented. The repeated failure of political negotiations has led many actors to see violence as their only route to power. Ethnic divisions have also solidified, and the region of Equatoria in particular has seen increased violence. This combination of factors has led to increasingly dire warnings, with the UN announcing that ethnic cleansing is already underway. The international response has been underwhelming, with the UN unable to come to an agreement on a potential arms embargo.

3) Burma (Myanmar)

The Muslim ethnic minority group, the Rohingya, has long lived in dire conditions, stripped of citizenship and often forced to live in internally displaced people (IDP) camps. Described as the world’s group most at risk of genocide, there is an ever-lingering risk of a spark setting off mass violence. Aung San Suu Kyi, the de facto leader of the country, and the National League for Democracy (NLD) have shown little interest in the Rohingya and seemingly lack the ability to control the military, who is in charge of managing the situation in Rakhine State. Security forces and members of the Rakhine ethnic group have both perpetrated violence against Rohingya, and the October killing of several police officers—with a group of Rohingya accused to be the attackers—has raised tensions. There are also reports that some Rohingya have reacted to their continued subjection through the creation of an insurgency. However, Rohingya know from experience that any violence they may perpetrate would likely lead to retaliation against Rohingya civilians. Reports of a plan among security forces to arm non-Muslim civilians also raise fears of increased violence. Should the situation deteriorate, almost no Burmese actors seem ready to come to the Rohingya’s defense. As the crisis continues, the government must reconsider its approach to the issue, build positive relations between the majority Buddhist and minority Muslim populations, and cease the use of excessive force against civilians, lest they precipitate the growth of a small number of Rohingya insurgents.

Additionally, ethnic groups around the country—such as the eastern Shan, Karen, Kokang, and Kachin, Ta’ang, and Arakan, now in an alliance—are politically sidelined and face violence at the hands of Myanmar government militias, even after Aung San Suu Kyi’s 21-Century Panglong Conference. There is speculation that the NLD is keeping quiet on the military’s blockade of transport and aid in these areas due to pre-election agreements with the military. Tensions and periodic violence seem unlikely to cease in 2017.

4) Sudan

Sudan is primed for significant violence against civilians in 2017, but much of it may remain out of the public spotlight. The Sudanese government has cut off access for journalists and aid workers to areas where it has conducted attacks on civilians, including much of Darfur, and many believe violence in Darfur may be returning towards levels from the height of the conflict. Huge numbers of internally displaced people remain in Sudan with almost no access to aid and few means to support themselves. In addition to Darfur, the Sudanese government continues to bomb civilians in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states. In an extremely alarming development in the conflict, Amnesty International also found evidence of 30 likely chemical attacks against civilians from January to September 2016. There is unlikely to be any large reduction of violence in 2017, as peace talks have broken down and the government remains invested in crushing rebellion. Sudan is also facing reduced international pressure. Many European governments have proved willing to support Sudan in order to prevent refugees from reaching their shores, while the U.S. is rumored to be preparing to lift sanctions.

5) Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Despite recent progress, uncertainty over President Kabila’s willingness to step down as president suggests conflict could escalate in the country in 2017. Kabila is constitutionally mandated to step down after two terms, and his second term was mandated to end in December 2016. After his pasts effort to amend the constitution to allow a third term failed, Kabila implemented various measures to push back his exit date, frequently citing concerns about the country’s readiness to conduct elections. A recent deal brokered by the Catholic Church calls for President Kabila to step down and elections to be held by the end of 2017, but it is unclear whether Kabila will respect the deal. If he does not, violence will likely escalate as hundreds have already been killed in confrontations between police and protesters. Armed groups outside urban areas have also used ongoing political uncertainty to gain influence and territory. Meanwhile, the largest cause of civilian death in the DRC remains insurgencies in the country’s east, though these groups are far less powerful and are more splintered than they were at their peak.

6) Yemen

Though unlikely to escalate significantly, Yemen’s devastating conflict seems likely to grind on. The conflict has moved towards equilibrium with no side strong enough to win, but both also unwilling to give up. On one side of the conflict is the former Yemeni government of Abd Mansur Hadi, heavily backed by a Saudi-led coalition. The Saudis are certain to continue their bombings, as they believe the defeat of the Hadi government would advantage their rival, Iran. The US continues to back the coalition, albeit more tentatively, as a recent decision to block an arms sale signifies. For their part, Hadi’s government has little power but maintains some influence in the south. On the other side, the Houthi rebels maintain control of much of the country, including the capital Sana’a, but are struggling to govern. They remain in an uneasy alliance with former president Ali Abdullah Saleh and receive limited support from Iran. Saudi bombings have frequently hit civilians and the conflict has devastated the economy. Hunger is extremely widespread and the Saudi coalition has repeatedly blocked the delivery of aid, continuously bombing major ports and further threatening aid delivery.

7) Burundi

President Pierre Nkurunziza’s decision to seek what is considered by many to be an unconstitutional third term sparked recent conflict in Burundi. Although he is now securely placed in his third term, the situation is far from resolution. Extrajudicial executions continue and thousands have died throughout the course of the conflict. The conflict has remained primarily political rather than ethnic, but there are signs that violence against Tutsi could increase. The Burundian government’s decision to leave the International Criminal Court suggests that their human rights record will not soon improve, and the recent assassination of a government official also raises tensions. Peace talks have stalled since July, when the government pulled out of the talks. Opposition groups were upset last month when chief mediator, former Tanzania President Benjamin Mkapa, urged them to look toward the 2020 elections, seeming to ignore their concerns about the 2015 election. In this context, talks seem unlikely to resume, as the opposition feels slighted, and Nkurunziza feels that he can retain power with no real resistance. An armed insurgency in exile remains capable of conducting attacks, though it holds relatively little power and is unlikely to seriously threaten Nkurunziza’s government. Still, as long as they are denied political rights there is the possibility that more opposition supporters will choose to use violence.

8) Ethiopia

Ethiopia has suffered significant unrest over the last year after protests emerged in the Oromia region. Originally concentrated on feelings of underrepresentation and marginalization of the Oromo ethnic group, the protests have spread to the Amhara region and have given voice to discontent with the government. Long seen as a champion of an authoritarian development model, Ethiopia has cracked down heavily on the protests and shown few signs of a democratic opening. Amnesty International has found that security forces have killed over 800 people since protests began in November 2015. With the opposition also growing increasingly disillusioned with the potential for peaceful change, potential for violence in 2017 is high.

9) Kenya

August’s elections could very well proceed successfully and represent democratic progress in Kenya, but they also hold significant potential for conflict. President Uhuru Kenyatta will be contested by Raila Odinga in a repeat of the 2013 election. In the 2007 election, Odinga’s defeat led to violence killing around 1,000 people, while the 2013 election remained quite peaceful. It is unclear which path 2017 will take, but there are warning signs that suggest potential violence. Trust in IEBC, the electoral commission, is low, and blows to Kenyatta’s popularity may cause a highly competitive election. Further, despite demand, the Kenyatta government has struggled to provide reforms, and continued police brutality has incited protests and raised fears of a heavy-handed response in the case of post-election protests. In addition to national elections, 47 counties will also hold local elections, and as ethnic tensions in several parts of the country remain high, it will not take much for localized conflict to erupt.

10) Zimbabwe

92-year old President Robert Mugabe’s insistence on staying in power after 36 years in charge threatens to spark conflict in Zimbabwe. 2016 already saw increased resistance to Mugabe, with protests gaining ground in the summer. Youth activists, often using social media to spread messages such as that of previously unknown Pastor Evan Mawawire—the founder of the #ThisFlag movement to end corruption and increase government transparency and accountability—were at the heart of the protests. Police cracked down heavily on protesters, but calls continued to urge Mugabe to step down immediately, rather than wait for elections in 2018 when Mugabe intends to run for re-election. Ongoing economic problems have also damaged the popularity of Mugabe’s government. Still, the potential for Mugabe to be forced from power hinges on a number of uncertainties, including the strengthening of a divided opposition and the military’s loyalty to Mugabe. Two things remain quite a bit more certain: that Mugabe will not cede power easily and many Zimbabweans will wish he would.

–

Timmy Hirschel-Burns is a senior at Swarthmore College majoring in Political Science and is STAND’s Policy Coordinator. You can follow him on Twitter at @TimH_B.

Featured photo is by The White Helmets.

Weekly News Brief, April 16 to 23, 2010, compiled by Josh Kennedy at GI-Net and the STAND E-team. To receive news briefs, along with trivia and a discussion guide, email education@standnow.org.

• The United States, United Kingdom and Norway issued a statement commending the Sudanese people “for their engagement in a complex and lengthy polling process, and their increased civic participation over recent months.” However, they also acknowledged that these elections were neither free nor fair and did not meet international standards.
• Vote counting for Sudan’s elections started on April 16^th. Although the process should take several days, current President Omar al-Bashir is expected to win another five years in office. The Sudanese reports that the election results will be released on Sunday.
• Several opposition groups in South Sudan accused the SPLA and the SPLM of tampering with ballots and intimidation during last week’s elections and this week’s ballot counting.
• Fifty people were killed in fighting between the Rizeigat and Al-Saada tribes that broke out north of Nyala on Tuesday. The fighting was reportedly due to cattle rustling.
• JEM warned of an imminent attack by SAF troops on their positions in the Jebel Moon area of West Darfur.
• The four kidnapped UNAMID peacekeepers will reportedly be released after the results of last week’s elections are announced.
• The president of Chad warned South Sudan against independence after the January 2011 referendum. He says that their independence will be “a disaster for Africa.”

• Three bombs killed 10 and injured 170 at the Burmese New Year water festival in Rangoon on Thursday.  Army and police sources say that Sr.-Gen. Nay Shwe Thway Aung, Than Shwe’s grandson, was the target of the attacks, while a state newspaper blamed the attacks on exiled Burmese opposition groups utilizing terrorist tactics.
• US senator Judd Gregg has introduced a resolution calling on US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to assess whether the Obama administration policy of engagement with the Burmese military junta has been effective in furthering US interests, asking the administration to strengthen sanctions and engage with regional governments and multilateral organizations to push for the establishment of democratic rule in Burma.
• Wa leadership recently met to discuss the Border Guard Force and the future of the United Wa State Army and decided once again to reject the BGF plan, following previous, unsuccessful attempts by the Wa leadership to negotiate with the SPDC.
• The New Mon State Party and the Kachin Independence Organization also declined the offer to integrate into the government’s border guard force.
• Kachin Independence Organisation troops are providing military training to people from the ethnic minority after the group refused to join the Burma Army’s Border Guard Force, and New Mon State Party leaders and soldiers are making preparations to travel to jungle bases in anticipation of an outbreak in hostilities between the Mon cease-fire group and the Burmese army.

• Mai Mai militiamen abducted 21 civilians returning from their fields in the Uvira area of South Kivu
• LRA attacks continue near the town of Niangara, Orientale province, killing three people and maiming one other.
• The African Association for the Defense of Human Rights reported that the FARDC executed 49 civilians in the town of Mbandaka earlier this month.

• NATO admitted its troops shot and killed four civilians when they opened fire on an approaching car. Three of the victims were teens and the other was a young police officer.
• The United States Pentagon has more than doubled the number of Special Forces operating in Afghanistan.
• More than 20 Taliban militants were killed last Sunday in a clean-up operation by NATO forces in Baghlan.
• Militants shot Kandahar’s deputy mayor as he prayed inside a mosque Monday night, killing him. The killing was one of many against government officials by the Taliban seeking to undermine regional stability.
• The Afghan government has postponed negotiations with Taliban officials until after President Karzai visits Washington in May.

• Security forces captured a top al Qaeda leader last Sunday, a move that was expected to be a major blow to the organization. 
• A series of 12 bombs hit the Sadr City area of Baghdad killing at least 39 people on Friday. It is unclear what group was responsible for the bombings.

• The Pakistani military admitted that as many as 40 civilians may have been killed in an airstrike two Saturdays ago, an apology that contradicted earlier denials of civilian casualties. Local officials say those killed belonged to a pro-government tribe who had helped repel Taliban influence in the area.
• Eight people were killed when a suicide bomber attacked an emergency room filled with Shiite mourners last Friday.
• Two suicide bombers attacked refugees waiting for aid supplies in Kohat last Saturday, killing 41. A car bomb targeting a police station in the same region Sunday killed seven people and injured another 26.
• Another bomb detonated in a crowded marketplace in Peshawar on Tuesday killed 18 and injured 34 people.
• A recent spate of killings of anti-Taliban politicians in Swat Valley has raised concerns that the Taliban may be regrouping there. Meanwhile, reports indicate Taliban and al-Qaeda militants have relocated to North Waziristan after government offensives in South Waziristan.

• Al-Shabaab banned school bells in the southern town of Jowhar last week, saying they conflicted with Islam. Meanwhile, the Somali government threatened to close all radio stations that bowed down to Hizbul Islam’s threats and discontinued their broadcasts. Several radio stations defied the government’s wishes and shut down.
• Heavy fighting between government and AMISOM forces and rebel groups continued in Mogadishu through the week, with 20 people dying Sunday by bombs and shelling from both sides. Five beheaded bodies were also found in the streets of Mogadishu on Wednesday, with another 11 dead.
• The Somali government has asked the WFP to release food within its storages to feed hundreds of Somali IDPs in need of food.
• Both al-Shabaab and Ahlu Sunna Waljama’a claimed victory over their fighting in Somalia’s central region. 
• Human Rights Watch released a new report on Somalia stating that all sides in the conflict are complicit in the commission of human rights violations against civilians including the indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas

Around the World

Northern Ireland

• The Continuity IRA claimed responsibility for a bombing outside of a police station in Northern Ireland that injured two people.

• An opposition activist was allegedly beaten to death at the hands of ruling party members. This is the second death in advance of this year’s Ethiopian national elections.

• Several grenades exploded in central Bangkok during anti-government protests, injuring almost 90 people. The protests are the latest round of tension between political parties in Thailand and there are fears that violent outbreaks could increase.