Sudan and South Sudan

Sudan

On April 11, 2019,  after a week of thousands of protestors camping outside the nation’s military headquarters, the Sudanese military announced that President Omar al-Bashir had been arrested and ousted, marking the end of al-Bashir’s 30 year rule as an uncompromising and relentless ruler. On April 12, defense minister Lt. Gen. Awad Mohamed Ahmed Ibn Auf announced he would head a two year transitional period through a military council, with terms including the dissolution of the government and 10PM curfews for all citizens. Increased protests caused Ibn Auf to step down as head of the military council within 36 hours and he was replaced by Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan who lifted certain restrictions including curfews. After episodic violence during the protests, a 10-member delegation of protest organizers met with the military council at the country’s army headquarters in Khartoum. The military has agreed to allow civilian representatives on a supreme council to aid in the governing of Sudan, but refuse to allow a civilian majority out of fear of being overpowered and outvoted. Members of the military council have suggested three civilians and seven soldiers with a maximum of half of the council’s members consisting of civilian representatives. As of May 2, 2019, the Declaration of Freedom and Change Forces (DFCF), a group of opposition leaders, has submitted a draft constitution with proposals for a cabinet and a 120-person legislature during the transitional period. The DFCF is expecting a response from the military within two to three days, leaving the future of Sudan’s governance still up to negotiations.

South Sudan

Since South Sudan’s independence from Sudan in 2011 after a war over oil, religion, and ethnicity, the nation is once again in conflict and looking to commit to peace. As of April 18, 2019, opposition leader Riek Machar postponed the formation of a unified government until safety issues were resolved, as 2016’s peace agreements ended in Machar fleeing gunfire from President Salva Kiir’s troops. Machar’s return would have marked the establishment of a power-sharing government with Machar as vice president and Kiir as President. SPLM-IO, Machar’s rebel group, proposed delaying the formation of a transitional government for six more months as issues such as lacking security control and a unified South-Sudanese army have yet to be addressed.

Great Lakes of Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

In early April, the Democratic Republic of the Congo held gubernatorial elections for its 26 provinces after a two-week-long postponement due to allegations of vote buying among provincial delegates. Before votes were even announced, 11 people were injured in clashes between supporters of newly-elected President Felix Tshisekedi and his predecessor Joseph Kabila in Lubumbashi. On April 11, it was determined that, months after losing the seat to his presidency, Joseph Kabila’s party, Common Front for Congo (FCC), had claimed victory in 16 of the provinces while Tshisekedi’s party won only one province while an opposition faction was successful in one other. (The remaining provinces were either postponed or will require a second round of votes.) With this announcement, Kabila’s party currently holds comfortable majorities in both houses of parliament as well as provincial governorships, thus ensuring that the country has not yet rid themselves of Kabila. As a result of the provincial election results, Al Jazeera has reported that supporters of Tshisekedi took to the streets protesting against the landslide victory of the FCC while simultaneously trying to hold off claims made by Martin Fayulu, candidate in the December election, that the presidential election was the result of a deal brokered between Tshisekedi and Kabila.

April has also marked a deadly month in the DRC as a result of the months-long Ebola outbreak that has plagued the country. More than 1,000 people have died from Ebola in eastern Congo since August, and as of May 4 the number has risen to 1,008. Despite these staggering statistics, however, it was determined by an expert panel of the World Health Organization (WHO) that the crisis would not be declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) as of April 12. Professionals have predicted that this could have deadly consequences as such an announcement is necessary to draw greater attention and funding to fighting Ebola in the country.

Middle East

Yemen

The United States Senate failed to override Donald Trump’s veto of the Yemen War Powers Resolution, a bipartisan measure to end US military support for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, on Thursday, May 2 with a 53-45 vote. Currently, the US provides intelligence and sells arms and ammunition to the coalition, all of which are used to fuel the worsening humanitarian crisis in Yemen. This unfortunate vote comes at a time when over 70,000 people have been killed in the conflict between the Houthi rebels and the Saudi-led coalition since January 2016 and over 12.6 million are in need of drinking water and adequate sanitation services. Cases of cholera are rampant among the millions of Yemeni citizens in need of humanitarian aid, with some areas seeing as many as 2,000 cases or suspected cases of cholera per week. Humanitarian groups have been blocked by fighting, restrictions to access certain areas, and bureaucratic difficulties, making it incredibly difficult to mitigate the worst of the crisis and keeping many Yemeni citizens from receiving lifesaving aid.

After the Stockholm Agreement in December, in which Yemen’s Houthi rebels and its internationally recognized government made concessions with the goal of mitigating conflict, the warring groups agreed to withdraw troops from Hodeidah Hodeidah has been and continues to be a significant port city as it is the main entry for 70% of imports, including humanitarian aid. However, in a press statement released on April 17, the UN Security Council expressed concern that the agreements are not being implemented. Both parties have been urged to follow through on the agreement to de-escalate the conflict, although a disagreement about which group should control Hodeidah has hindered this approach.

Syria

Since the removal of ISIS from Syrian territory, thousands of women and children have fled to refugee camps within the country. With 12,000 women and children now residing within these camps — many of whom are the families of ISIS fighters— their potential repatriation has garnered international attention. In just one camp in northeastern Syria, 2,500 children of ISIS fighters are being held which has prompted the International Committee for the Red Cross to urge that these children be repatriated to their country of origin.

In the past month, Russian and Syrian-led air-raids have recommenced in what was once a demilitarized zone in Northwestern Syria. Schools, health facilities, and residential areas within the “safe-zone” have all been hit. Additionally, the UN regional humanitarian coordinator reported that the area was experiencing the worst barrel bombing in fifteen months. These barrel bombs are found to have killed at least 15 civilians. The increase in attacks is exemplified by the May 5th targeting of three hospitals. Two of the hospitals were put out of service and one, The Nabad Al Hayat Hospital was destroyed.

Reliefweb reports that, since April 21, 231,087 individuals have been displaced and 462,496 remain under attack. Additionally, in this time, at least one hundred civilians have been killed.  In the end of March, there were 6.2 million internally displaced people within the country and 11.7 people in need of humanitarian assistance.

Southeast Asia

Burma

In the past month, the Burmese government has continued to refuse to change its treatment of the Rohingya minority and has initiated a crackdown against critics of the government and national armed forces, refusing the right to freedom of speech and expression. Especially concerning was the Supreme Court’s decision to uphold seven-year prison sentences of two reporters in apparent retaliation for their implication of the armed forces in an investigation of a massacre of Rohingya villagers in Inn Din, Rakhine State. The situation of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh remains concerning as the government is ill-equipped to deal with the massive influx of refugees resulting in food shortages within refugee camps and the mistreatment of Rohingya refugees by Bangladeshi police, as well as the refusal of access to education for refugee children. Bangladesh is hoping to repatriate Rohingya as soon as possible after initial repatriation plans were delayed in November of 2018 but many refuse to return to the country until changes are made.

Throughout the past month, the international community has issued several responses to the persecution of the Rohingya. On April 29th, the EU council extended an embargo on arms and other materials that could be used for internal repression, issued travel bans to Myanmar, and froze assets on 14 top officials connected to serious human rights violations. These extensions will last until April 30, 2020. Efforts to address the persecution of the Rohingya have also been made in the U.S., where a bill proposing sanctions against the Burmese government due to their treatment of the Rohingya was introduced to the Senate on April 12th. Additionally, the status of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh was discussed at length during talks between the Russian and Bangladeshi governments on April 29th. During this discussion, Russia agreed to back Bangladesh in promoting the timely repatriation of the Rohingya by encouraging the Burmese government to create a safe environment for the Rohingya within their own home country. In April, UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Mark Lowcock, head of UN migration agency (IOM) António Vitorino, and UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Filippo Grandi took a joint visit to Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh. After this trip, the officials reiterated their concern for the Rohingya, imploring the Burmese government to end persecution and asking the international community to support the Bangladeshi government in providing aid to Rohingya refugees. The UN also condemned the deportation of 3 Rohingya refugees who were returned to Burma from India due to their lack of documentation.

Emerging Crises

Venezuela 

The situation in Venezuela continues to escalate. On April 30, Guaidó asked Venezuelans to join the “final phase” of the efforts to topple Maduro. On May Day, protestors took to the streets once again to demand Maduro’s resignation and they were violently suppressed with tear gas and rubber bullets. The military did not follow Guaidó’s demands for a revolt, exemplifying Maduro’s strong hold. On May 2, Maduro spoke on national television to frame the military’s support as a victory over the opposition’s attempt at a United States-backed coup.

The US claims that Maduro was prepared to flee if the military did follow Guaidó’s request, saying he had a plane ready to take him to Cuba. Maduro’s Administration denies these claims. These comments are the most recent mention of the United States’ “threatening drumbeat” to overthrow the Maduro regime, which includes talks of military intervention. The increasingly violent protests and suppression combined with threats of foreign intervention and seemingly everlasting economic suffering puts Venezuela in a dire situation, with political violence seeming more likely by the moment.

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Megan Rodgers, who contributed to the Burma section of this brief, is a student at The University of Arkansas. Megan serves on STAND’s Burma and Democratic Republic of Congo Action Committees.

Grace Harris, who contributed to the Sudan section of this brief, is a sophomore at Tampa Preparatory School in Florida, where she serves as the president of her STAND chapter. Grace serves on STAND national’s Sudan and Yemen Action Committees.

Casey Bush, who contributed to the DRC section of this brief, is a graduate student at Clark University and one of STAND’s Student Co-Directors. She is a member of all of STAND’s Action Committees.

Grace Fernandes, who contributed to the Syria section of this brief, is a junior at Simmons University and one of STAND’s Student Co-Directors. She leads STAND’s Indigenous Peoples Action Committee and works with Simmons Amnesty International, an affiliate of STAND.

Caroline Mendoza, who contributed to the Sudan and South Sudan section of this brief, is a junior at Cerritos High School in California, and serves on the STAND Managing Committee. She is a member of the Burma and Yemen Action Committees.

Zachary Gossett, who contributed to the Venezuela section of this brief, is a sophomore at Butler University and a member of STAND’s Managing Committee. He serves on the Indigenous Peoples and Burma Action Committees.

This week’s conflict update covers events since the beginning of 2019 in STAND’s key focus areas: Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Yemen, Syria, Burma, and the escalating crisis in Venezuela. We are thankful to STAND Action Committee members Grace Harris and Maya Ungar, as well as STAND Managing Committee members, Grace Fernandes, Isabel Wolfer, Hannah King, Vishwa Padigepati, Caroline Mendoza, and Zachary Gossett for researching and writing pieces of this brief.

Sudan and South Sudan

Sudan

Weekly protests every Thursday calling for the end of the al-Bashir regime continue as they enter their fourth month. These peaceful protests, which originally began in December to protest the rising costs of basic goods and shortages of fuel, have resulted in dozens of civilians killed, hundreds injured, and thousands detained as Sudanese security forces responded with extreme force, including tear gas, batons, and ammunition. The Sudanese Professionals Associations (SPA), one of the primary groups coordinating the marches, named the demonstration on March 21 the “Procession for Justice” as a memorial for war crimes committed by the government. Although the government has reduced the excessive use of force against demonstrators, between 30 and 50 protesters have been killed since December 2018.

On February 22, President Omar al-Bashir declared a yearlong State of Emergency in an effort to quell the protests. The legislature has since cut this to six months. Earlier this month, Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes in Darfur, delegated leadership of the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) to Ahmed Harun, who is also wanted by the ICC for war crimes in Darfur.

Earlier this month, an emergency court sent eight people to prison for participation in anti-government protests. The Democratic Lawyers Alliance, a group supporting the protests, reported that at least 870 protesters were brought before these emergency courts that were established due to al-Bashir’s declaration of a national emergency.

Interested in learning more about current events in Sudan and how you can support peaceful demonstrators? Join our webinar on Thursday, March 28 at 7 PM EST – click here to register!

South Sudan

Violence in South Sudan continues despite the peace deal signed by President Salva Kiir and rebel leader and former Vice President Riek Machar last fall. The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan, stated last month that the peace agreement has done little to deliver immediate improvement for civilians or enhance accountability measures, noting an increase in arbitrary detention, torture, execution, and gender-based violence. Notably, more than 10,000 people have been displaced since January due to violent clashes between government forces and armed groups. Violence has been particularly severe in Central Equatoria State, where the National Salvation Front has clashed with the government army. Thousands of refugees displaced by this unrest have fled to the Democratic Republic of the Congo over the past eight weeks. A UN report released last week concluded that South Sudan’s population is the least happy in Africa.

In late March, an almost $185 million spending deal was approved by the transitional government. This decision sparked criticism from observers claiming that the peace deal continues to suffer from a lack of funds due to corruption. Last December, the government allegedly authorized over $135,000 to renovate private residences owned by First Vice President Taban Deng Gai and the late revolutionary leader John Garang. Experts have expressed concern over an increasing lack of financial transparency among government officials and warned that international donors may not contribute to the depleting transition fund as consequence.

Great Lakes of Africa

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Controversy surrounded the long-awaited DRC elections in December 2018. In addition to internet and text messaging shutdowns, signal cuts of Radio France Internationale, and voter intimidation and coercion, voting was postponed for voters in three opposition areas, restricting voting for over a million Congolese citizens. Over 1,000 polling stations in Kinshasa were closed due problems with voting machines and voter lists, and election observers were unable to access many polling stations and vote tabulation centers. In the wake of these events, at least 10 people were killed and dozens wounded by security forces during protests against the victory of Félix Tshisekedi. Notably, the Catholic Church, one of the most trusted institutions in the country, leaked results based off of their voter observation efforts that Martin Fayulu, another opposition candidate, had won by a landslide. Fayulu has challenged the results in court, but to no avail.

Concurrently, Congo has suffered a grave Ebola epidemic which has exceeded 1,000 cases, making it the world’s second worst outbreak. Due to ongoing conflict in Eastern DRC, there is great deal of public mistrust when it comes to treatment of the disease, and armed groups have staged attacks on ebola treatment centers, inhibiting the response of health workers. Just last week, two Médecins Sans Frontières treatment centers were set on fire in such attacks, forcing them to suspend operations in these areas. According to UNICEF statistics, children represent a third of ebola victims, and women, who often serve as primary caretakers of sick children, have also been disproportionately affected.

On March 14, DRC held Senate elections in which former President Joseph Kabila’s party, the Common Front for Congo, won the majority of  seats while Tshisekedi’s party, the Union for Democracy and Social Progress, won only 3 out of 100. There is evidence of at least 20 candidates who withdrew from races due to voter bribery efforts by provincial assembly members. As such, Tshisekedi has not allowed the newly-elected senators to take office, pending an investigation, and has indefinitely suspended the gubernatorial elections that were scheduled for next week.

Middle East

Yemen

At the end of 2018, there was cautious optimism for the situation in Yemen as the warring parties met in Sweden for peace talks. They agreed to a ceasefire in the strategic port city of Hodeidah, as well as a prisoner exchange. However, the condition of ordinary Yemenis remains bleak, with 80% living in poverty and 110,000 suspected cases of cholera. Since the war began, the World Bank estimates that 35% of businesses have closed, with household income plummeting due to inflation and currency devaluation. While the ceasefire has lead to short respites from violence, civilian deaths remain high and both parties blame the other for violations. The agreed-upon prisoner exchange has yet to occur and relatives of those imprisoned are calling for the parties to uphold the agreement. The continuation of peace talks has been delayed and some say time is running out. Additionally, some from southern Yemen are threatening a new conflict if they are not included in the talks. There have been calls for independence in southern Yemen since the unification of Yemen in the 1990s, as the ruling north has sidelined local economic and political concerns.

The United Nations is seeking $4.2 billion for the continuation of humanitarian work over the next year. Last month, they regained access to the Red Sea Mills, a food storage center pivotal to efficient food distribution in the region. Despite their active involvement in the war, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pledged $2.6 billion dollars to fund the UN humanitarian plan for Yemen. However, the full funding goal is, as of now, unmet.

In the United States, the House and Senate voted this year to end assistance to Saudi Arabia’s efforts in Yemen, each passing a version of the War Powers Resolution. However, since the language is not identical, the House must vote on the Senate version before being sent to the White House to be signed into law. President Trump has threatened to veto this legislation if passed.

Syria

As Syria enters the ninth year of civil war, Syria’s refugees and internally displaced peoples have suffered another harsh winter. Over 37 internally displaced children were frozen to death, both in Rukban Camp, and fleeing from Hajin, an ISIS-held bastion further north. In late January 2019, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey revived the idea of creating safe zones along Turkey’s border to protect civilians. Concerns remain as to whether refugees may be forcibly returned as a result, and how safe zones would affect Kurdish civilians. Turkey has long has tensions with the Kurdish people, who have long fought for political autonomy in Turkey and throughout the Middle East. Since the beginning of the conflict, over half of the country’s pre-war population has been displaced, with 5.6 million people living as refugees and 6.2 million people displaced internally. Half of those affected are children.

On March 23, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces announced a military victory over the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS), who once held a third of Syria and Iraq’s territory. Following this victory, the top military commander in Syria’s Kurdish territory, who led anti-ISIL efforts, urged President Bashar al-Assad to pursue dialogue and in order to reach a political solution towards an autonomous Kurdish region. In response to the announcement of the defeat of the ISIL, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany said they would remain vigilant of the group’s “sleeper cells” that still pose terrorist threats. Amongst military strategists, concerns remain that victory will be fleeting, and that ISIS will regroup once troop withdrawals are complete.

Southeast Asia

Burma

Content Warning: This section describes sex trafficking and sexual violence.

The situation of the Rohingya has continued to worsen in 2019. The Rohingya, a primarily-Muslim ethnic and religious minority group, have long been persecuted by the Burmese government. Since August 2017, thousands have been killed, driving hundreds of thousands across the border to Bangladesh, sparking international outrage and leading to the creation of the largest refugee camp in the world. Overcrowding in the camps has led to further problems. Bangladesh, already a very poor country, has struggled to handle the influx of refugees, and are seeking to move Rohingya refugees to an island in the Bay of Bengal. This island is remote, frequently hit by cyclones, and is considered uninhabitable. Experts worry that this forced movement will lead to further problems for the vulnerable Rohingya population.

Conflict continues against ethnic minorities due to Burmese military activity in the Kachin and Shan states. These conflicts have increased the vulnerability for exploitation of Kachin and Shan women. While men fight, women must take increasingly risky job opportunities to support their families, some of which lead to human trafficking. A massively incriminating report released by Human Rights Watch last week uncovered the human trafficking of Kachin women forced to become wives in China. Originally promised jobs in China, these women discover upon arrival that they were instead sold to Chinese families. They are locked away and repeatedly raped until they become pregnant. After having a child, the women either remain as sex slaves or are returned to their families, sometimes after years of abuse.

Emerging Crises

Venezuela

The Venezuela crisis began in January when the opposition-led National Assembly declared Juan Guaidó the interim president of the country. For years, Venezuela has suffered from hyperinflation, food shortages, and increasingly totalitarian policies at the hands of Nicolás Maduro’s government. While the U.S. and the majority of the EU and Organization of American States support Guaidó, Russia and Cuba, long-time Maduro allies, continue to support the current government.

Early on March 21, Venezuelan authorities apprehended Guaidó’s chief of staff, Robert Marrero, marking a significant escalation in the political crisis. His arrest mirrors similar crackdowns on dissent by Maduro’s government. Venezuelan doctors also face government pressure after attempting to alert the UN to the dire shortage of essential medicines. Michelle Bachelet, the UN Human Rights Chief, has criticized both the Maduro regime for cracking down on dissent, and US sanctions for exacerbating the conflict.

The US claims that these sanctions are meant to target government activities alone, yet many argue that they are hurting the most vulnerable Venezuelans. Along with sanctions, the US has increased intelligence sharing in the region, providing information to Colombian authorities about insurgents who have been strengthened due to the Venezuela conflict. While unconfirmed, experts speculate that Maduro is allowing insurgent activity in order to prepare for possible military intervention. If true, these actions would simply be the latest example of the Maduro administration’s transgressions.

Recent US-Russia talks over Venezuela have stalled due to the differing visions of Maduro’s role in the nation, and on Monday, Russia landed two military planes in the country, a move the U.S. denounced as a “contradiction of both Nicolas Maduro’s and Russia’s calls for non-intervention […] [and] a reckless escalation of the situation.”

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Grace Harris, who contributed to the Sudan section of this brief, is a sophomore at Tampa Preparatory School in Florida, where she serves as the president of her STAND chapter. She joined STAND after learning about the Darfur genocide in my World History 1 class during her Freshman year, seeking an opportunity to take action and make a difference in the world. In addition to leading STAND at Tampa Prep, Grace serves on STAND national’s Sudan and Yemen Action Committees.

Isabel Wolfer, who contributed to the South Sudan section of this brief, is STAND’s Communications Coordinator and a member of the Sudan Working Group. She is a senior at The George Washington University in Washington, DC and a former intern for the Darfur Women Action Group.

Hannah King and Vishwa Padigepati, who contributed to the Yemen section of this brief, are members of STAND’s Managing Committee and the Yemen Action Committee. Hannah is STAND’s Campaigns Coordinator and a senior at Clark University in Massachusetts and Vishwa is STAND’s Advocacy Coordinator and a student at Fairmont Preparatory Academy in California.

Maya Ungar, who contributed to the Burma section of this brief, is a junior at the University of Arkansas and is serving as STAND’s Southeast Asia Coordinator for the 2018-2019 academic year. She is currently studying abroad in Chiang Mai, Thailand.

Grace Fernandes, who contributed to the DRC section of this brief, is a junior at Simmons University in Boston, Massachusetts, and one of STAND’s Student Co-Directors. She leads STAND’s Indigenous Peoples Action Committee.

Caroline Mendoza, who contributed to the Syria section of this brief, is a junior at Cerritos High School in California, and serves on the STAND Outreach Team. She is a member of the Burma and Yemen Action Committees.

Zachary Gossett, who contributed to the Venezuela section of this brief, is a sophomore at Butler University and a member of STAND’s Outreach Team, He serves on the Indigenous Peoples and Burma Action Committees.

This week’s update focuses on failing peace talks in South Sudan and Burundi; hunger and famine in South Sudan and Nigeria; the proposed halt to the US conflict minerals rule, which will affect progress made on armed group funding, supply chain transparency, and money laundering; renewed fighting in the Central African Republic; and protests against Nigerian president Muhammadu Buhari.

South Sudan

On February 7, The Sudan Tribune published a report that two women have died from starvation in South Sudan’s Eastern Equatoria state. The incident reflects the food security difficulties that South Sudan is currently facing.

Since South Sudan’s controversial 2015 peace deal has created controversy because it requests that rebels who fought the administration of President Salva Kiir return to Juba, the capital city of South Sudan. The peace deal was administered by the former Botswana president Festus Mogae, who serves in the Joint Evaluation and Monitoring Commission (JMEC). Mogae reportedly said to the BBC that former Vice President Riek Machar should not return to Juba. These comments have raised the concerns of human rights experts who believe that Mogae’s remarks show favoritism toward the government of South Sudan. As the administrator of the peace deal, Mogae should not show favoritism to either side.

On February 17, South Sudanese minister of Labor Lieutenant General Gabriel Duop Lam joined the side of the rebels, marking the second high-level resignation this week from the government. The defection was confirmed at a news conference in Juba on Friday.

On the same day, a senior UN human rights official called for the need for accountability for “those committing atrocity crimes in conflict-torn South Sudan.” UN Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights, Andrew Gilmour said, “This is a war that has been waged against the men, women and children of South Sudan, and the only way of ending this onslaught will be when the perpetrators face consequences for what they’re doing.” Mr. Gilmour travelled to the country last month, where he observed the devastation and human rights abuses suffered by civilians. Gilmour went on to emphasize his frustrations with the limited access available to the UN Mission to South Sudan, whose mission is to protect and provide humanitarian assistance to civilians.

Great Lakes Region of Africa

Burundi

Peace dialogue in Burundi is crumbling as the government continues to refuse to participate. The Burundian government’s refusal to participate lies in the invitation of groups who they do not consider peaceful stakeholders. Meanwhile, the National Council for the Respect of the Arusha Accord (CNARED), an opposition group predominantly in exile, complained that Benjamin Mkapa, former president of Tanzania and mediator of the talks, was not including all invested groups in the dialogue and was therefore failing to represent the views of the Burundian people. In an attempt to satisfy CNARED’s concerns, Mkapa agreed to allow individuals accused of participating in a 2015 coup attempt to participate in the discussion. This decision spurred the Burundian government’s refusal to continue the peace talks, leading many in the region to doubt that the dialogue will see any success. The talks were scheduled to run from February 16 to 18, but the Burundian government refused to send representatives.

The government in Burundi maintains that the political crisis has ended and that Burundi is now a safe country, issuing a call for refugees to return home. The response from surrounding countries has been hesitant at best. In Uganda, contradictory statements have been made regarding the return of refugees to Burundi. The Minister for Disaster Preparedness Hillary Onek said that refugees would receive a three-month extension if they desired to stay, but the minister’s deputy Musa Ecweru claimed that the laws regarding refugees require that their return be voluntary. The Commissioner for Refugees of the Office of the Prime Minister, Mr. Kazungu Apollo, released a clarification that Uganda will support Burundians seeking asylum until they feel it is unsafe for them to return home.

The UN peacekeepers Burundi has sent to other countries, especially Somalia, have provided a source of financial support to the country’s defense department. The continued use of Burundian peacekeepers has raised concerns that the UN is indirectly funding repression in Burundi. Though the European Union pays the Burundian soldiers’ salaries, it has requested that the African Union find a way to pay Burundian peacekeepers without passing through Burundian banks.  

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Although pressure has been applied to the Congolese government to hold elections in 2017, the budget minister claimed on February 15 that “it would be difficult to gather the necessary $1.8 billion” for the election. The minister, Pierre Kangudia, claims that the government does not have the money to host elections in 2017 come just twelve days after the death of opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi. Tshisekedi was expected to lead a transitional government with the current President Kabila until elections could be held later this year. His death, along with the statements from the budget minister, have led to a renewed uncertainty about the future of democracy in DRC. The minister also stated that “we have to fill the holes before we can even put anything in it [the treasury],” a reference to the corruption present in the country.

Meanwhile, President Trump re-ignited a conversation about conflict minerals and the Dodd-Frank law in the United States when a directive was leaked that would temporarily suspend the Dodd-Frank law for two years. The executive order declared that the secretary of the treasury would “review regulations on financial institutions and report back specific recommendations.” The Dodd-Frank act requires US firms to “declare where they’re sourcing their gold, tin, and other minerals, often used in consumer electronics.” Removing this piece of legislation, or even simply suspending it, could lead to a resurgence in investment in conflict minerals: gold, tin, tungsten, and tantalum. In eastern Congo, armed rebel groups sell these resources to fund violent activities, and this policy change opens the possibility of a backslide in improvements made in responsible sourcing practices in the past few years.

Violence between the government and various militias in the DRC continues. Over a five-day span from February 9 to February 13, soldiers killed at least 101 people in an altercation with the Kamwina Nsapu group in central Congo. UN human rights spokesperson Liz Throssell accused the troops of “firing indiscriminately” and using “excessive and disproportionate” force to handle the situation. The deaths of 39 women in this altercation support the accusation. The UN peacekeeping mission in the DRC also stated that the Kamwina Nsapu group had “committed violent atrocities and used child soldiers.”

Major armed groups active in the eastern DRC include the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), which also carries out abuses in the Central African Republic, the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), comprised predominantly of Rwandan Hutu linked to the 1994 genocide, the Forces for Patriotic Resistance in Ituri (FRPI), which is responsible for various abuses against civilians, local Mai-Mai community-based militias, and the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an armed Ugandan group that has bases in eastern Congo.

Central and West Africa

Central African Republic (CAR)

In the last three weeks, the Central African Republic (CAR) has seen a resurgence of violence perpetrated by armed groups. On February 7, rebels killed at least five civilians after the Central African army, with support from UN peacekeepers, killed Youssouf Malinga, also known as “Big Man,” a leader of a local Muslim militia group, during an operation. Additionally, over two dozen were wounded, and two churches and a school were destroyed. Just four days earlier, a clash between two armed groups in Bocaranga killed civilians and compelled thousands to flee to nearby forests.

Much of this violence continues because of its political and economic expediency. Warlords continue to exploit religious tensions in the country to gain popular support and strengthen their political bargaining power, thus increasing their chances of earning a government position. Because the judicial system has been unwilling or unable to prosecute these individuals for their crimes, a culture of impunity has been created, encouraging such behavior. In fact, the idea of blanket amnesty for war crimes recently arose while President Faustin-Archange Touadéra was meeting with the leaders of several armed groups. Beyond political rewards, the revenue that armed groups obtain from natural resource extraction further incentivizes them to continue to perpetuate violence. This may be exacerbated if President Donald Trump follows through on a proposal that would suspend federal rules on conflict minerals. Members of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) say that this policy could lead to “the resurgence of armed groups controlling and exploiting minerals. This might ultimately lead to a generalised proliferation of terrorist groups, trans-boundary money laundry and illicit financial flows in the region.”

Much of the future of CAR depends on action taken by the international community. On February 15, the Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous warned the international community not to turn away from the country, as armed groups remain a grave threat. As such, the peacekeeping force in the country has changed its deployment to more effectively protect the country. Regional organizations have also gotten involved, with the African Union, the Economic Community of Central African States, and the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region launching a joint-initiative for a national peace and reconciliation agreement. Only concerted international attention will allow this lengthy conflict and humanitarian crisis to cease.

Nigeria

According to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), at least half a million children under the age of five in northeastern Nigeria will suffer from severe acute malnutrition during this upcoming year, leading up to twenty percent of them to die, unless more aid is given. At least fourteen million require some type of humanitarian assistance. The hunger crisis in the northeast is caused primarily by Boko Haram, whose attacks have displaced millions of farmers, significantly reducing their ability to farm. The man-made famine is the first in over a decade. Donor countries from 14 countries pledged to scale up funding for vulnerable groups threatened by famine at the Oslo conference last month.

Thousands of Nigerians are expressing their grievances at the present humanitarian situation by protesting the government of Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari. Although much of Boko Haram has been defeated, citizens believe Buhari has failed in his other responsibilities related to eliminating corruption, bolstering the education system, and promoting economic growth. In particular, the economy has suffered under Buhari with plummeting exchange rates and virtually non-existent foreign direct investment. Anger is exacerbated by Buhari’s decision to receive medical treatment outside of the country, attesting to his lack of trust in local healthcare. Concern for the president’s health—and questions about whether it may be worse than government officials are saying—is putting further pressure on the government and raising concerns about the continued functioning of the political system.

Both Boko Haram and other militants in the Niger Delta continue to pose a problem in Nigeria. Seven suicide bombers, six of whom were women, launched an attack in Maiduguri on February 16. Though there were no civilian casualties during this attack, such attacks continue to occur with regularity around the country. Horrifically, Boko Haram is now deploying children as young as nine, who are able to get through security checkpoints more easily. The petroleum minister of Nigeria also recently announced that armed groups in the Niger Delta cost the  country between $50 and $100 billion in oil revenue as it was forced to cut back production by nearly two hundred thousand barrels per day. Although a detailed plan has recently been released to end the insurgency through development of infrastructure and social institutions, it remains to be seen whether Nigeria will have the financial or technical capacity to effectively do the job.

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Justin Cole is STAND’s Central and West Africa Coordinator. He is a Junior at UNC Chapel Hill where he majors in Economics and Peace, War, and Defense.

Elizabeth Westbrook is STAND’s Great Lakes of Africa Coordinator. She is a Junior at UNC Chapel Hill where she is a Political Science major.

Joanna Liang is STAND’s Sudan and South Sudan Coordinator. She is a Junior at the University of Delaware where she majors in History Education.

Jason Qu is STAND’s Emerging Conflicts Coordinator, focusing today on Nigeria. He is a Senior at Bronx High School of Science.

1) Syria

2016 was a disastrous year for an already horrific conflict, as the Assad regime stepped up its use of sieges and as the fight for Aleppo last month became even harsher than many expected. The rebels are increasingly weak, particularly more moderate factions, and many rebels and civilians who were in formerly rebel-held territory, particularly around Aleppo, have been pushed into Idlib. The possibility remains that civilians that survived the brutal siege of Aleppo will once again face similar circumstances as the Syrian government and its allies push to retake further opposition territory. The U.S.,an increasingly peripheral player in the conflict, was left out of the most recent round of peace talks, and President-Elect Trump seems likely to withdraw support with the opposition and increase cooperation with Russia, a main ally of Assad. Turkey has also become more cooperative with Russia and is now focusing on combatting Kurdish influence rather than supporting the opposition. Already struggling after recent territorial losses, the Islamic State will also likely lose influence in 2017.

2) South Sudan

Having already caused immense suffering since its start in 2013, South Sudan’s civil war threatens to spiral even further in 2017. Originally caused by a split between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, the SPLM-IO—Machar’s side—has split. Kiir appointed Taban Deng Gai to replace Machar as Vice President, and his decision to force Machar out of the country has left his supporters feeling unrepresented. The repeated failure of political negotiations has led many actors to see violence as their only route to power. Ethnic divisions have also solidified, and the region of Equatoria in particular has seen increased violence. This combination of factors has led to increasingly dire warnings, with the UN announcing that ethnic cleansing is already underway. The international response has been underwhelming, with the UN unable to come to an agreement on a potential arms embargo.

3) Burma (Myanmar)

The Muslim ethnic minority group, the Rohingya, has long lived in dire conditions, stripped of citizenship and often forced to live in internally displaced people (IDP) camps. Described as the world’s group most at risk of genocide, there is an ever-lingering risk of a spark setting off mass violence. Aung San Suu Kyi, the de facto leader of the country, and the National League for Democracy (NLD) have shown little interest in the Rohingya and seemingly lack the ability to control the military, who is in charge of managing the situation in Rakhine State. Security forces and members of the Rakhine ethnic group have both perpetrated violence against Rohingya, and the October killing of several police officers—with a group of Rohingya accused to be the attackers—has raised tensions. There are also reports that some Rohingya have reacted to their continued subjection through the creation of an insurgency. However, Rohingya know from experience that any violence they may perpetrate would likely lead to retaliation against Rohingya civilians. Reports of a plan among security forces to arm non-Muslim civilians also raise fears of increased violence. Should the situation deteriorate, almost no Burmese actors seem ready to come to the Rohingya’s defense. As the crisis continues, the government must reconsider its approach to the issue, build positive relations between the majority Buddhist and minority Muslim populations, and cease the use of excessive force against civilians, lest they precipitate the growth of a small number of Rohingya insurgents.

Additionally, ethnic groups around the country—such as the eastern Shan, Karen, Kokang, and Kachin, Ta’ang, and Arakan, now in an alliance—are politically sidelined and face violence at the hands of Myanmar government militias, even after Aung San Suu Kyi’s 21-Century Panglong Conference. There is speculation that the NLD is keeping quiet on the military’s blockade of transport and aid in these areas due to pre-election agreements with the military. Tensions and periodic violence seem unlikely to cease in 2017.

4) Sudan

Sudan is primed for significant violence against civilians in 2017, but much of it may remain out of the public spotlight. The Sudanese government has cut off access for journalists and aid workers to areas where it has conducted attacks on civilians, including much of Darfur, and many believe violence in Darfur may be returning towards levels from the height of the conflict. Huge numbers of internally displaced people remain in Sudan with almost no access to aid and few means to support themselves. In addition to Darfur, the Sudanese government continues to bomb civilians in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states. In an extremely alarming development in the conflict, Amnesty International also found evidence of 30 likely chemical attacks against civilians from January to September 2016. There is unlikely to be any large reduction of violence in 2017, as peace talks have broken down and the government remains invested in crushing rebellion. Sudan is also facing reduced international pressure. Many European governments have proved willing to support Sudan in order to prevent refugees from reaching their shores, while the U.S. is rumored to be preparing to lift sanctions.

5) Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Despite recent progress, uncertainty over President Kabila’s willingness to step down as president suggests conflict could escalate in the country in 2017. Kabila is constitutionally mandated to step down after two terms, and his second term was mandated to end in December 2016. After his pasts effort to amend the constitution to allow a third term failed, Kabila implemented various measures to push back his exit date, frequently citing concerns about the country’s readiness to conduct elections. A recent deal brokered by the Catholic Church calls for President Kabila to step down and elections to be held by the end of 2017, but it is unclear whether Kabila will respect the deal. If he does not, violence will likely escalate as hundreds have already been killed in confrontations between police and protesters. Armed groups outside urban areas have also used ongoing political uncertainty to gain influence and territory. Meanwhile, the largest cause of civilian death in the DRC remains insurgencies in the country’s east, though these groups are far less powerful and are more splintered than they were at their peak.

6) Yemen

Though unlikely to escalate significantly, Yemen’s devastating conflict seems likely to grind on. The conflict has moved towards equilibrium with no side strong enough to win, but both also unwilling to give up. On one side of the conflict is the former Yemeni government of Abd Mansur Hadi, heavily backed by a Saudi-led coalition. The Saudis are certain to continue their bombings, as they believe the defeat of the Hadi government would advantage their rival, Iran. The US continues to back the coalition, albeit more tentatively, as a recent decision to block an arms sale signifies. For their part, Hadi’s government has little power but maintains some influence in the south. On the other side, the Houthi rebels maintain control of much of the country, including the capital Sana’a, but are struggling to govern. They remain in an uneasy alliance with former president Ali Abdullah Saleh and receive limited support from Iran. Saudi bombings have frequently hit civilians and the conflict has devastated the economy. Hunger is extremely widespread and the Saudi coalition has repeatedly blocked the delivery of aid, continuously bombing major ports and further threatening aid delivery.

7) Burundi

President Pierre Nkurunziza’s decision to seek what is considered by many to be an unconstitutional third term sparked recent conflict in Burundi. Although he is now securely placed in his third term, the situation is far from resolution. Extrajudicial executions continue and thousands have died throughout the course of the conflict. The conflict has remained primarily political rather than ethnic, but there are signs that violence against Tutsi could increase. The Burundian government’s decision to leave the International Criminal Court suggests that their human rights record will not soon improve, and the recent assassination of a government official also raises tensions. Peace talks have stalled since July, when the government pulled out of the talks. Opposition groups were upset last month when chief mediator, former Tanzania President Benjamin Mkapa, urged them to look toward the 2020 elections, seeming to ignore their concerns about the 2015 election. In this context, talks seem unlikely to resume, as the opposition feels slighted, and Nkurunziza feels that he can retain power with no real resistance. An armed insurgency in exile remains capable of conducting attacks, though it holds relatively little power and is unlikely to seriously threaten Nkurunziza’s government. Still, as long as they are denied political rights there is the possibility that more opposition supporters will choose to use violence.

8) Ethiopia

Ethiopia has suffered significant unrest over the last year after protests emerged in the Oromia region. Originally concentrated on feelings of underrepresentation and marginalization of the Oromo ethnic group, the protests have spread to the Amhara region and have given voice to discontent with the government. Long seen as a champion of an authoritarian development model, Ethiopia has cracked down heavily on the protests and shown few signs of a democratic opening. Amnesty International has found that security forces have killed over 800 people since protests began in November 2015. With the opposition also growing increasingly disillusioned with the potential for peaceful change, potential for violence in 2017 is high.

9) Kenya

August’s elections could very well proceed successfully and represent democratic progress in Kenya, but they also hold significant potential for conflict. President Uhuru Kenyatta will be contested by Raila Odinga in a repeat of the 2013 election. In the 2007 election, Odinga’s defeat led to violence killing around 1,000 people, while the 2013 election remained quite peaceful. It is unclear which path 2017 will take, but there are warning signs that suggest potential violence. Trust in IEBC, the electoral commission, is low, and blows to Kenyatta’s popularity may cause a highly competitive election. Further, despite demand, the Kenyatta government has struggled to provide reforms, and continued police brutality has incited protests and raised fears of a heavy-handed response in the case of post-election protests. In addition to national elections, 47 counties will also hold local elections, and as ethnic tensions in several parts of the country remain high, it will not take much for localized conflict to erupt.

10) Zimbabwe

92-year old President Robert Mugabe’s insistence on staying in power after 36 years in charge threatens to spark conflict in Zimbabwe. 2016 already saw increased resistance to Mugabe, with protests gaining ground in the summer. Youth activists, often using social media to spread messages such as that of previously unknown Pastor Evan Mawawire—the founder of the #ThisFlag movement to end corruption and increase government transparency and accountability—were at the heart of the protests. Police cracked down heavily on protesters, but calls continued to urge Mugabe to step down immediately, rather than wait for elections in 2018 when Mugabe intends to run for re-election. Ongoing economic problems have also damaged the popularity of Mugabe’s government. Still, the potential for Mugabe to be forced from power hinges on a number of uncertainties, including the strengthening of a divided opposition and the military’s loyalty to Mugabe. Two things remain quite a bit more certain: that Mugabe will not cede power easily and many Zimbabweans will wish he would.

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Timmy Hirschel-Burns is a senior at Swarthmore College majoring in Political Science and is STAND’s Policy Coordinator. You can follow him on Twitter at @TimH_B.

Featured photo is by The White Helmets.

This week’s news brief focuses on President Kabila’s struggle for power in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the threat of  terrorist attacks in Burundi, and a renewal of violence in the Central African Republic despite recent pledges of aid. Though Boko Haram has continued to wreak havoc in Nigeria, the Nigerian army has had some recent successes against the terrorist group.

Great Lakes Region of Africa

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Concerns over increasing violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo mounted as December 19 approached without any likelihood of a peaceful transition of power. Over the past months, violence has periodically erupted  in direct response to the continuation of President Joseph Kabila’s term, as well as by militant groups, particularly in the east, who benefit from a lack of law enforcement. President Kabila remains in office due to the ruling of the constitutional court, which claims that he has the right to remain in office until a new president can be elected democratically. In the leadup to the 19th, the government police force declared all protest illegal.

LUCHA, a youth-led rights group in the DRC, maintains, along with many members of opposition parties, that the end of Kabila’s term was December 19,  2016. Multiple activists in the group, which organized peaceful protests as the date approached, have been detained unjustly. The detentions, along with the violent response to peaceful protests by the Congolese government, led to an increase in violent altercations between protesters and security forces.

Opposition members claimed that they intended to protest until Kabila was forced to step down. The opposition held protests on September 19 as a warning, and were met with overly aggressive and violent police action resulting in at least 50 deaths. Within two days of Kabila’s decision not to step down, demonstrations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo led to the deaths of over 20 people. Protesters in the capital Kinshasa set fire to the headquarters of the ruling party. Police responded to protesters with tear gas and by opening fire on multiple demonstrations. Meanwhile, members of the police force went door to door arresting known opposition members in cities considered to be strongholds. Congolese diaspora also participated in demonstrations in both Belgium and South Africa.

Access to phone lines and the internet was restricted before the election, making it more difficult for opposition groups to communicate and for the community to receive outside information. The main target was social media, which is especially important to young members of the opposition. Youth in Congo make up a significant portion of opposition movements as they pursue a more positive future.

International pressure is increasing from all directions on Kabila to step down and to respect the rights of his citizens. Calls for Kabila to respect human rights came from the United Nations, the European Union, Britain, France and the United States. Lawmakers in the United States also pushed Kabila to step down, however he has clearly chosen to remain.

Over the weekend of December 4, 31 people were killed in an altercation  between an insurgent group and government forces. The violence occurred in the Kasai province and has claimed to have been “sparked by a row between an uncle and a nephew over the title of a traditional chief.” The “row” resulted in the deaths of eighteen militiamen and thirteen members of the force sent to end the violence.

On November 27, an attack by a militia group killed 34 people in the North Kivu province in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. The Mai-Mai Mazembe militia group who perpetrated the attack are one of many established by warlords in eastern DRC. In addition to this violence, there have been disputed reports of the Twa ethnic group attacking a freight train resulting in one death and seventeen injuries. The actions of various militia and ethnic groups have become more transparent as forces anticipate a transition into a more lawlessness.

Human Rights Watch Senior Researcher Ida Sawyer testified at the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission to draw attention to the violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and call on the US government to continue to apply sanctions and pressure for a transition of power. She suggested the possibility for the government to combine forces with various militias to maintain control over the country, which may lead to mixed results.

Burundi

Burundi faces the threat of potential terror attacks on Western and local targets while dialogue attempting to find a solution to conflict remains stagnant.

In Burundi, police have been informed of threats from regional terror groups to the Bujumbura International Airport and the Kajaga neighborhood. The police force claims that it has received similar threats in the past beginning in 2007 with their support of peacekeeping missions in Somalia. The US embassy has issued a warning to all travelers to take extra precautions when traveling by air or in the Kajaga neighborhood.

Other residents of Burundi face terror as they discover crosses painted on their homes in the middle of the night. Local governments claim that “no political, ethnic or religious group in particular was targeted” and that the Imbonerakure, the youth wing of the ruling CNDD-FDD party, was not responsible because they were included in the targeted houses. However, residents of the town are skeptical and believe that the Imbonerakure is at fault and is targeting those in opposition to the ruling party.

On December 8, dialogue facilitator former Tanzanian President Benjamin Mkapa arrived in Bujumbura for a series of meetings. There is uncertainty over who will participate in the dialogue, as members of various opposition parties have previously fled Burundi to other East African countries, and CNARED-GIRITEKA, the main opposition coalition group, has said that they no longer consider Mkapa as a legitimate facilitator of dialogue. This move came after Mkapa publicly recognized Nkurunziza and his government as the legitimate leaders of Burundi, saying that those who believe otherwise are “out of their mind.” Mkapa is basing his meetings off of a roadmap developed to engage Burundian politicians and parties and to encourage stabilization of the country, and has said he would like an agreement signed by June. Mkapa has met with political parties, religious groups, and other members of Burundian society. However, the current government claims it will not be speaking with opposition parties. The dialogue has received expressions of support from France, who has been a crucial aid provider in recent years.

In Gitega, attempts at a grassroots solution to peace are arising. Open discussions invite anyone able to participate to come and express their concerns. Some negotiators see this method as a potential way to include local people in high-level mediation talks, which have thus far only included elites and political opposition members.

The progress of human rights in Burundi is still deeply debated as the President of the National Independent Human Rights Commission claims improvements have been made this year in comparison to 2015. However, on December 18, more than 500 families were forcibly removed from their homes in the Kagaragara locality of Buringa Commune by the government. This is a new and unprecedented level of invasion into personal life. The governor of the area claims that families were moved into a more stable area because criminals in the Western region are destabilizing it. Individuals who were removed no longer have access to important documents and personal items that were stored in their homes. They also no longer have access to money and their crops, which will lead to an even greater increase in hunger in this region of Burundi.

Central and West Africa

Central African Republic (CAR)

On November 18, European donors at the Brussels Conference pledged approximately $2.2 billion of aid to the Central African Republic (CAR) after President Faustin-Archange Touadéra described his strategies for bringing long-term peace to his country. Although this amount is short of the $3 billion requested by the government in its recovery plan, Federica Mogherini, the foreign affairs chief of the European Union, stated his hope that the financial assistance would move the CAR towards “sustainable growth, deep reforms, and national reconciliation.” Such progress is needed quickly given the severe humanitarian crisis in the country. Data from the United Nations demonstrates that twenty percent of children will die prior to turning five years old and half of those remaining will experience chronic malnutrition. Clearly, any help from the international community cannot arrive quickly enough.

Unfortunately, there was an abrupt renewal of violence shortly after the announcement of this news. On November 21, fighting between the Popular Front for the Renaissance of the Central African Republic (FPRC) and the Union for Peace in Central Africa (UPC) that began in Bria spread to Bambari. At least eighty-five people were killed, dozens more were wounded, and over ten thousand people have been forced to flee their homes from clashes between these groups. What is perhaps most troubling about this incident is that the FPRC allegedly targeted ethnic Fulani citizens, killing them in their homes and making it impossible for survivors to access hospitals. Adama Dieng, the UN Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, warned that continuing to commit such crimes could make the perpetrators subject to the jurisdiction of international courts. In response, the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission (MINUSCA) sent more troops to the territory surrounding Bria.

In the midst of these atrocities, the UN recently finished investigating the stories of dozens of women and children who allege they were subjected to sexual assault by peacekeepers in CAR. Because the crimes allegedly took place long before the beginning of the investigation in April, interviews conducted with nearly one hundred and fifty women and children were the main focus of the Office of Internal Oversight Services (OIOS). Although some evidence was dismissed as unreliable, the OIOS ultimately released the names of forty-one peacekeepers who may have committed such crimes, sixteen of whom were from Gabon and twenty-five of whom were from Burundi. The OIOS has requested that these governments process these individuals in their respective judicial systems, noting that “responsibility for further investigations lies with Burundi and Gabon.” Even though the United Nations condemned these crimes, it will likely be far more difficult now to build trust between peacekeepers and the local population in CAR, which will be crucial for the cycle of violence to end and for the country to move forward.

On December 14, the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) reported an “alarming increase” in atrocities in the Central African Republic (CAR) over the last few months. Specifically, 1,301 human rights abuses have been confirmed, which represents a seventy percent increase when compared to the time between September 2014 and May 2015. MINUSCA noted that the abuses “were primarily arbitrary executions, cruel treatment, sexual violence, deprivations of liberty, destruction of private property, and restrictions on freedom of movement.” Séléka and anti-Balaka militia groups continue to exert a great deal of authority in the CAR as the government struggles to contain them.

Human Rights Watch released a report on December 20 detailing the rise of a new armed group in the Central African Republic (CAR) known as “Return, Reclamation, Rehabilitation,” or 3R. The group emerged in the northwest, which has largely been neglected by the fragile CAR government as well as the international community, and continues to claim that it is attempting to protect the minority Peuhl from anti-Balaka fighters. Human Rights Watch has confirmed that 3R has slaughtered civilians, raped women, and destroyed countless villages as MINUSCA has been unable to curtail the violence.

Much of the ongoing violence in CAR can be tied to impunity. Although those who commit crimes in CAR can be prosecuted by both the International Criminal Court and the Special Criminal Court, a court consisting of both national and international judges to investigate human rights abuses since 2003, there has not been enough international support for these bodies to operate effectively.  Worse, it has been incredibly difficult to negotiate with the warlords who lead armed groups because they have too much to lose. Not only would they lose access to the natural resources in their pockets of territory, but they would potentially be subject to punishment for their role in human rights abuses. It is yet to be seen whether the $2.2 billion of aid recently pledged at the Brussels Conference will be enough to end the violence. It may be time for the UN to send a stronger peacekeeping force to the country and to broaden its mandate.

Nigeria

At the third annual Dakar International Forum on Peace and Security in Africa that took place on December 6 in Senegal, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari argued that the complete defeat of Boko Haram was imminent. Unfortunately, recent events suggest that this is likely too optimistic. Although the terrorist organization has lost the vast majority of the territory that it once controlled, it remains a deadly force. Yaga Yarkawa, the chair of the Chibok government area, recently stated that “Chibok is not safe, contrary to claims by government and security operatives,” citing attacks against over half a dozen villages by Boko Haram. The terrorist organization has also continued inflicting damage against the military in Nigeria. On November 23, a lieutenant general in the army was pronounced dead and just one day later, two soldiers were killed in Askira Uba in Borno state. On December 12, yet another officer in the Nigerian army was killed, Lieutenant Colonel O. Umusu. Unsurprisingly, Nigeria is ranked third this year with regards to the number of terrorist attacks within its territory and William Assanvo, an expert on militants in Nigeria, recently said that “there is little to indicate the group is nearing its end or even that it is severely weakened.” Concentrated efforts by the Nigerian military must continue if the country is to be successful in defeating the group.

The Nigerian army has had a few recent successes. In a campaign against Boko Haram in the Sambisa Forest, nearly two thousand women and children were reportedly rescued and over five hundred Boko Haram terrorists were captured. On December 20, Abubakar Shekau, the leader of Boko Haram, was allegedly captured in the area around the Gafa Mountain. However, there is some question as to whether the man seized was actually Shekau.

There is one important bright spot with regards to those living in the Borno State. On December 16, crude oil was discovered in this territory, which could potentially help its economy recover after being ravaged by Boko Haram for years. Unfortunately, it will likely be difficult to obtain the oil until Boko Haram is permanently defeated, which could obviously take many more years.

Though not often talked about, some of the worst atrocities in Nigeria, have been conducted not by Boko Haram, but by Nigerian military officers. According to Amnesty International, Nigerian soldiers have killed at least one hundred and fifty protestors between August 2015 and August 2016 by firing into crowds. Those responsible for these human rights abuses have not been investigated. On the other hand, some progress finally has been made with regards to holding Nigerian soldiers accountable for sexually abusing women and children who were forced to flee from their homes because of Boko Haram. On December 6, Ibrahim Idris, the Inspector-General of Police, said that ten people had been arrested as suspects. He further assured the country that those found guilty of committing such crimes would face justice in court.

Beyond the atrocities committed by both Boko Haram and Nigerian soldiers, the humanitarian crisis in Nigeria continues. The UN estimates that 400,000 children are at risk of starving in northeastern Nigeria. Because homes and farms have been burned by Boko Haram, many families are unable to obtain food, leaving them to hope that the international community will intervene and provide assistance. Unfortunately, the response of the UN has been essentially nonexistent, prompting criticism from some in Europe. Although the international institution finally admitted that “the crisis can no longer be ignored” on December 2, there is concern as to whether this recognition will be enough to save tens of thousands of Nigerians from impending starvation. It is also problematic that Buhari is insisting that the UN is exaggerating the magnitude of the crisis for “financial gain,” a claim repudiated by countless sources.

Over the past two weeks, Boko Haram has continued to commit atrocities throughout Nigeria. On December 10, two schoolgirls blew themselves up in the middle of a market in Madagali, a town in northeastern Nigeria, killing forty-five people and injuring thirty-three more. Using young girls as suicide bombers has become a disturbing trend for Boko Haram, as young girls generally do not attract as much attention from authorities.

South Sudan

On December 20, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned that South Sudan may face genocide unless immediate action is taken to enact an arms embargo. He warned, “If we fail to act, South Sudan will be on a trajectory towards mass atrocities.” The U.N. chief urged the Security Council to impose the arms embargo which would “diminish the capacity of all sides to wage war.” U.S. Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power has said there will be a vote on the sanctions by the end of 2016 and council members will have to make a decision “on the issues of life and death that have been raised by the secretary-general.”

On December 19, South Sudan President Salva Kiir rejected reports of an imminent genocide in the country, claiming it was only a strategy to justify calls for an imposition of targeted sanctions and an arms embargo.

The humanitarian situation has deteriorated dramatically in the past year. In 2016, 6.1 million people in South Sudan required humanitarian assistance, and the aid community expects this number to rise by 20 percent to 30 percent in 2017.

Conditions for South Sudanese refugees in Uganda are grim. A clinic called Ocea Centre Two that was built in the early 1990s to serve local Ugandans, has become a settlement of some 85,000 South Sudanese refugees. As the UN makes multiple statements regarding ethnic cleansing in South Sudan, Uganda can barely open camps quickly enough to accommodate the influx of refugees. An average of 1,500 have been arriving every day since July 2016.

On December 19, the UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) reported that 584,573 South Sudanese refugees have arrived in Uganda since the civil war broke out in December 2013. Resources for the refugees are limited. There isn’t enough food, water, or sanitary pads for women, and education for children is limited. It may be safer in Uganda, but conditions are also inhumane. In August, the World Food Programme (WFP) cut rations by 50 percent for all refugees who had been in Uganda before July 2015. Now, the organization faces a funding shortage of $62 million for all refugee operations in the country for the next six months. If this continues, WFP will be forced to cut the quota for new arrivals as well. Even though they are receiving their allocated amount of food, most newly arrived refugees speak of hunger and say they don’t eat enough.

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Justin Cole is STAND’s Central and West Africa Coordinator. He is a Junior at UNC Chapel Hill where he majors in Economics and Peace, War, and Defense.

Elizabeth Westbrook is STAND’s Great Lakes of Africa Coordinator. She is a Junior at UNC Chapel Hill where she is a Political Science major.

Joanna Liang is STAND’s Sudan and South Sudan Coordinator. She is a Junior at the University of Delaware where she majors in History Education.

This week’s news brief focuses on South Sudan, Sudan, Burundi, DRC, and CAR. Thousands of South Sudanese refugees continue to flee to Uganda each day, and though the Darfur conflict may be forgotten in the international community, it is still far from over. DRC continues to face the possibility of civil war, and violence grows in Burundi as more and more flee the country. A conference held in Brussels on CAR addressed how to obtain long-term peace and resolve the humanitarian crisis within the country.

South Sudan

NPR reports that as violence continues in South Sudan, refugees are flowing into Uganda at a staggering rate; as many as 200,000 since fighting intensified in July. Refugees have been suffering from extreme food shortages, and many have reported being denied food rations. According to the report, “In August, the World Food Programme cut rations in half for families who have been in the country since July 2015 and are not considered extremely vulnerable,” in effect cutting rations from about 2,100 calories a day to about 1,000. A medical officer of Medical Teams International said malaria and malnutrition are two of the biggest concerns since people arriving the settlement camp have already been hungry for a long time.

On November 11, the Sudan Tribune reported that four people were killed in the South Sudan city of Yambio during a rebel attack. The mayor of Yambio said that gunshots erupted in the morning when the armed group came to attack a house belonging to a government security agent in Hai Kuba area. The group killed a young child and injured others.

The UN refugee agency has distributed lifesaving items to more than 6,000 vulnerable families trapped by fighting in Yei River state over the last six months. Internally displaced persons say they want to be allowed to safely return to their homes so that they can harvest the crops they planted. The food rations they are receiving are not enough to survive. Aid workers and local leaders reported thousands of Yei residents have been forced to enter into neighboring Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo because of food insecurity.

According to a November 16 Reliefweb report, many South Sudanese are at imminent risk of violence. The recent violence in the country particularly threatens populations who may be attacked on the basis of ethnicity and presumed political loyalties. UN Special Advisor on the Prevention of Genocide Adama Dieng warned that populations face the threat of genocide unless national, regional and international actors “take immediate measures” to end the violence and uphold the responsibility to protect South Sudanese from atrocity crimes.

Sudan

Darfur’s conflict might be forgotten, but it’s not over. The conflict that broke out in 2003 forced millions of Darfuri refugees to flee the country. Human rights groups, diplomats, and Darfuri diaspora members have limited access to information from inside Darfur. As global interest in the conflict has faded, the Khartoum government has effectively sealed off the region to outsiders and taken control of the narrative around Darfur. In early September, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir traveled to Darfur to declare that peace had officially returned to the region, just weeks after African Union-backed peace talks fell apart in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. There appears to be little interest among global powers in challenging the government’s decision. A recent Amnesty International report documented ongoing government-sanctioned violence across much of the region since the beginning of 2016, including the possible the use of chemical weapons against civilians.

On November 16, Radio Tamazuj reported that Bashir described the South Sudanese government as Sudan’s “enemy.” This remark signifies growing tensions over slow implementation of joint agreements between the two countries. President Bashir said that South Sudan still wants to implement the 2012 Joint Cooperation Agreements signed by the two countries. Separately but concurrently, Bashir rejected calls for additional dialogue initiatives between actors in Sudan and insisted that opponents should join the existing National Dialogue.

Great Lakes of Africa

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

The Democratic Republic of the Congo faces the threat of civil war if Joseph Kabila does not step down from power at the end of his mandate on December 19. The Rassemblement, the group comprised of various opposition parties boycotting Kabila’s decision to delay elections to April 2018, have insisted that elections are the only path to a peaceful solution. Criticizing the deal to postpone elections organized by the DRC’s governing party, Etienne Tshisekedi, the leader of the major opposition party, stated that “Kabila has performed a coup d’état against himself by signing that agreement, because he made an oath to protect the constitution.”

The decision to postpone elections held firm as the DRC’s Prime Minister and Cabinet resigned on November 14 in accordance with the agreement. Under the terms of the agreement, the Prime Minister and Cabinet will be replaced with members of opposition parties who participated in the discussions to establish a balance in the government. Since the majority of opposition parties, as part of the Rassemblement, refused to attend the discussions, the members of the new government will not fully represent the portions of the society who supported the major opposition group.

Opposition leaders in the DRC have compared Kabila’s reign in recent years to that of Mobutu, and new information has strengthened this case by  linking Kabila to the further removal of resources from the DRC. On November 14 it was revealed that Gecamines, the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s state mining company, signed over royalty rights to one of Kabila’s close friends. The revenue from the royalties, which could have generated as much as $880 million for the DRC government, is now owned by billionaire Dan Gertler, who has been accused by Global Witness of having played a role in other mining deals that have cost Congo over $1.36 billion in revenue. No reason for the selling of the royalties has been provided, but the rerouting of the income will decrease Congolese spending capabilities.

On November 8, an explosive device in Eastern Congo killed one young Congolese girl and injured two Congolese civilians in addition to 32 members of the MONUSCO task force. The UN responded by calling for action against the perpetrators, but there is no indication of who the perpetrators may be, as multiple militia groups are active in the region.

Human Rights Watch Senior Researcher Ida Sawyer submitted a letter to the UN Security Council on November 9 expressing concerns over the potential for violence if Kabila remains in office. The letter conveys a list of recommendations on how to avert crisis in the DRC. These recommendations include urging Kabila to step down, or at least to find a time before the end of 2017 to step down from his position, as well as a measures to increase the deployment of MONUSCO forces and to press them to focus specifically on the protection of journalists and political opposition.

STAND is working with partners such as The Enough Project, Jewish World Watch, and Stand With Congo, as well as Congolese diaspora and civil society organizations such as Friends of the Congo and LUCHA to push the U.S. to expand sanctions on enablers of violence against peaceful demonstrators in the leadup to December 19. You can join us by following us on twitter @standnow and tweeting/retweeting using #DRCsanctions, #ByeByeKabila, and #KabilaMustGo.

Burundi

The threat of destabilization and increased violence in Burundi has only increased in recent weeks and months, leading to an exodus of refugees leaving Burundi and hunger throughout the country.

The International Federation for Human Rights recently published a report detailing the situation in Burundi and providing specific examples of rights violations throughout the country. The report focused on “Repression and Genocidal Dynamics” and covered extrajudicial executions, targeted assassinations, enforced disappearances, lootings, torture, and ransoms. The report comes amidst concerns that Burundi has been “forgotten” by the international community. Meanwhile, the risk of genocide increases as ideology and identification processes are enforced. At the same time, citizens know little of what is happening outside of their own regions of Burundi and in the rest of the world, as President Nkurunziza has maintained a “vacuum” on all media following his announcement to run for a third term.

Refugees leaving the country now number at 311,083 since April 2015 with Tanzania alone receiving approximately 10,000 per month. Concerns about the great influx of refugees are increasing as violence continues and DRC simultaneously loses stability. UN reporters don’t anticipate any decrease in violence or in the outpouring of refugees. Most of the violence and executions have been politically motivated and directed towards those opposed to Nkurunziza’s third term.

Meanwhile, the World Food Program has determined that over 600,000 people out of Burundi’s population of 10 million are “short of food due to drought and flooding.” Most of those affected live in the Northern and Eastern provinces. Though Burundi ended its food exports to Rwanda earlier this year to attempt to prevent major shortages, it is still unable to provide enough food for all of its citizens.

Central and West Africa

Central African Republic (CAR)

The Brussels Conference, hosted by the European Union on behalf of the Central African Republic (CAR), began on November 17. The main objectives of the conference are to obtain long-term peace and address the humanitarian crisis that has engulfed the country. The success of both of these goals depends largely on the financial pledges of donors at the conference.

When France ended its military mission in CAR at the end of October, there were fears of fresh waves of violent attacks even though over ten thousand peacekeepers from the United Nations remained in the country. Though a brief period of peace lasted in early November, a fresh wave of violence between two Séléka groups in late November resulted in 14 deaths and 76 wounded citizens. The country continues to struggle with stability as most of the armed groups around the country continue to bare arms while the security sector remains woefully unequipped to execute the process of disarmament. The judicial system also remains incapable of providing justice. Many individuals who have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity during the conflict have not been prosecuted because of poor administration and a lack of funding. As a result, many feel as though they are able to kill again with impunity. A recent news release by the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights stressed that lasting peace would not be achieved without truth and reconciliation. For that reason, organizations such as Human Rights Watch have urged donors at the Brussels Conference to invest in the Special Criminal Court, which was established in June 2015 to prosecute those who committed crimes during the most recent conflict in CAR.

Beyond the struggle to achieve peace and justice, there is also a significant humanitarian crisis in CAR. The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) recently found that over 850,000 people, half of whom are children, are internally displaced or refugees. One third of children in the country do not have access to education. Furthermore, over forty percent under the age of five are chronically malnourished. The healthcare system has also suffered drastically. Hospitals do not have enough staff or supplies to effectively deal with disease. As a result, respiratory infections are the third most significant cause of death for children in CAR. Given that the country is ranked second to last in development by the UN, however, any assistance given during the Brussels Conference should not focus solely on mitigating the short-term crisis, but also on solving long-term problems.

–

Justin Cole is STAND’s Central and West Africa Coordinator. He is a Junior at UNC Chapel Hill where he majors in Economics and Peace, War, and Defense.

Elizabeth Westbrook is STAND’s Great Lakes Coordinator. She is a Junior at UNC Chapel Hill where she is a Political Science major.

Joanna Liang is STAND’s Sudan and South Sudan Coordinator. She is a Junior at the University of Delaware where she majors in History Education.

The National League for Democracy (NLD) has confirmed it will contest the upcoming elections despite their leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, remaining banned from becoming President.  Suu Kyi said they have a plan to deal with the problem, and the NLD has said it will select an NLD member to run for President.  Majority leader of the US Senate Mitch McConnell has criticized Burma’s government for keeping the Constitutional provision barring Suu Kyi from becoming President, and has said that Burma should not receive trade benefits until after the election.

Religious freedom in Burma may take a blow if the President signs a bill on interfaith marriage into law.  Parliament passed a bill that would require Buddhist women to get approval from local authorities to marry a man of another faith.  The bill is strongly back by the Buddhist nationalist organization Ma Ba Tha.  In Rakhine State, few Rohingya have taken the new green cards on offer by the Burmese government, as they must identify themselves as Bengali in order to get the card.  Only 1,600 Rohingya have applied for green cards, which replace the 400,000 white cards that the government revoked earlier this year.

Rebels from the Democratic Karen Benevolence Army (DKBA) continues to fight the Burmese military in a battle over the Asia Highway in Karen State.  At least four DKBA soldiers and seven Burmese army soldiers have been killed in the clashes.  There was also shelling in Shan State, where fighting between the Kachin Independence Army and the Burmese Army killed one person and hundreds of civilians were forced to flee.

Central African Republic (CAR)

The Central African transition government has controversially decided to exclude refugees from the upcoming election.  More than 460,000 people who fled to neighboring countries will be unable to vote.  As refugees are disproportionately Muslim, Muslims will have less influence in the election.  Various UN agencies have expressed their concern about the decision.

French Foreign Affairs Minister Laurent Fabius visited CAR this week.  His visit was designed to show support for transitional President Catherine Samba-Panza and an eight million euro budgetary aid agreement, much of which will go to support the upcoming elections.  However, it also drew a great deal of attention to the alleged child sexual abuse committed by French peacekeepers in CAR.

MINUSCA, the UN peacekeeping force in the Central African Republic, will receive 750 new troops after the Republic of the Congo sent the soldiers to replace soldiers that had served for over a year.  However, in an unrelated situation, 20 peacekeepers will be sent home for excessive use of force in an incident that killed two people.

In Bangui, unidentified gunmen attacked Central African police, wounding two officers.  The attack came several days after unidentified gunmen attacked the state radio station.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

The DRC is stepping up the process of decoupage, which will separate the country’s 11 provinces into 26 provinces.  Nine new provinces were implemented in the last week.  The DRC’s government has announced that gubernatorial elections for the new provinces will take place between July 27th and 31st.

Six people were abducted in Orientale Province in an attack believed to be committed by the LRA.  Also, in Walikale territory in North Kivu, the APCLS kidnapped ten people.  In response to this type of attack, citizens in Walikale have organized self-defense militias, citing lack of protection from police and military.  In Ituri, the Ituri Patriotic Resistance Force attacked a camp for displaced people.  One rebel leader seems unlikely to lead further attacks.  Jamil Mukulu of the Ugandan Islamist group Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) was extradited to Uganda from Tanzania to face trial.

The European Union has pressured the Congolese government to release two civil society activists who have been held since their arrest in March.  Government spokesman Lambert Mende rejected the EU’s recommendation as meddling in the internal affairs of a sovereign country.

South Sudan

The South Sudanese government has made clear its displeasure with the UN’s recent actions.  In response to the UN’s report that found the South Sudanese army guilty of human rights abuses, South Sudan has expelled one UN official and may expel another.  President Kiir also criticized the imposition of sanctions on three South Sudanese commanders.  UN secretary-General has continued his efforts, however, and called on South Sudanese leaders to find a political solution and stop the violence.  The executive director of the South Sudan Human Right Society for Advocacy has also called on President Kiir to stop the violence.

Local violence has continued at a large scale in Lakes state.  Nine people were killed in clashes between the Panyon and Dhiei clans.  Then, 27 people were killed in a raid on Pappul cattle camp, including a number of civilians.

The rising price of water is putting more people at risk of cholera as people will have less access to clean water.  Since June, there have been 790 cases of cholera and 33 people have died in the cholera outbreak that originated in a displaced person’s camp in Juba.

Sudan

Hassan al-Turabi, leader of the Popular Congress Party (PCP), said that he was confident that Sudan’s Islamists would reunite within the next year.  It seems unlikely Sudan’s Islamists all agree, but Turabi did meet with President Omar al-Bashir this week.  The two had considered the other an enemy since Turabi split from the National Congress Party in 1999 to form the PCP, but relations between the two have thawed in the last year.

Opposition parties in the national dialogue have held talks with opposition parties that have not yet joined the dialogue in an attempt to convince them to join.  However, talks between the Sudanese government and the SPLM-N are not going well, and the Sudanese government has accused the SPLM-N of having unrealistic demands and being at fault for the failure of peace talks.

President Omar al-Bashir visited Saudi Arabia to discuss building closer ties between the countries with the Saudi King.  This marks a shift in Sudan’s alliances after Sudan distanced itself from Iran earlier this year.  President al-Bashir also completed the umrah while on the trip.

Twelve Sudanese women in Khartoum faced 40 lashes after they were arrested for wearing trousers.  The women were Christian and originally from the Nuba Mountains, and while three were not sentenced to flogging, the possibility remains for the nine other women.

Syria

ISIS and the Syrian military engaged in heavy fighting around the city of Palmyra.  Syrian forces closed in on the city and killed over 30 ISIS fighters, but ISIS then captured over 100 Syrian soldiers in an ambush.  The Assad regime did have a victory in Zabadani, where Hezbollah and Syrian army forces took the main entrance to the city, which is close to the border to Lebanon.

The US has continued launching heavy airstrikes against ISIS, with 16 in Syria this past weekend.  Two senior leaders of ISIS were killed in the attacks.

The conflict continues to have huge costs on Syrian civilians.  In Aleppo, a drought is causing a water shortage for civilians, who also struggle to access water due to restricted movement caused by fighting and attacks on water sources.  Meanwhile, in response to the shortage of funds for Syrian refugees, Nobel Peace Prize winner Malala Yousafzai has called world leaders “quite stingy.”

Emerging Conflicts: Burundi

Burundi remains on the brink as controversy over President Pierre Nkurunziza’s run for a third term continues.  Nkurunziza decided to run despite strong opposition and doubts over the constitutionality of his decision.  In light of the ongoing unrest, presidential elections have been pushed back from their originally scheduled date of July 15th to July 21st.  Parliamentary elections recently took place and were won by Nkurunziza’s CNDD-FDD party, but the elections were marred by an opposition boycott and strong doubts over their legitimacy.  Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has been called in to mediate between the CNDD-FDD and the opposition.

There also seems to have been an upsurge in violence.  Burundi’s military announced that it had killed 31 opposition rebels and captured 170 in the country’s north.  The exact allegiances and identity of the rebels remains unconfirmed.  There have also been a number of grenade attacks in the capital city, Bujumbura.  However, there may be hope in the disarmament of the CNDD-FDD’s youth wing, the Imbonerakure.  The group has long been considered a dangerous potential source of violence, but Ugandan President Museveni said that they had been disarmed.  This would be welcome news, but it does confirm that the Imbonerakure were armed and doubts remain about the extent of their disarmament.

The election has been set for November 8th.  It is Burma’s first open general election in 25 years.  The incumbent Union Solidarity and Democracy Party, led by President Thein Sein, will be contested by the National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi.  Parliament recently voted against removing a Constitutional clause that bars her from becoming President, but despite this Aung San Suu Kyi has continued campaigning.

Negotiations between the Burmese government and ethnic rebels in Thailand made some progress, with chief peace negotiator Aung Min saying it was possible a deal could be struck.  The parties will meet again in a few weeks.  The Burmese government also may have quite a few more years of Thein Sein as President, as he has said he will consider a second term.

The military has engaged in multiple clashes.  In Karen State, government troops fought members of the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army, while in Shan State unknown rebels attacked an army outpost.  In Rangoon, military MPs have argued strongly against a proposed constitutional amendment that would allow state parliaments to choose chief ministers.  Efforts to reduce military power also took a hit as five student leaders who led protests against the military influence in Parliament were arrested.  In Rakhine State, the military continues to use Rohingya in forced labor.  While a UN Human Rights Council resolution sought to bring attention to this and other human rights abuses of Rohingya, the Burmese government has rejected the proposal.

Central African Republic (CAR)

Unidentified gunmen unsuccessfully attempted to take over CAR’s main radio station.  In the middle of the night, a dozen men surrounded the station, scaled the fence, and broke into the radio station.  However, they were repelled by security forces.  It is believed they wanted to take over the radio station to make a political statement over radio, but it is unknown what political beliefs they held.

French investigators have left for the Central African Republic, where they will meet with children accusing French peacekeepers of sexual abuse.  Over a dozen French peacekeepers are being investigated for allegations of sexually abusing children in exchange for food in early 2014.  French authorities were informed of the abuse in July 2014, but the investigation is still in progress.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

The United States has appointed Tom Perriello as its new Special Envoy to the Great Lakes Region of Africa.  He succeeds Russ Feingold, who left the position in February.  Perriello does not have experience in the region, but he has worked on transitional justice projects in Sierra Leone, Afghanistan, Kosovo, and Darfur.  He was a Democratic representative in the House from 2008 to 2010.

In Ituri, the Ituri Patriotic Resistance Force (FPRI) killed a woman and a 13-year-old girl and raped three others.  This follows another attack from the militia last Tuesday.  In Goma, two people were killed and multiple others wounded in a series of attempted robberies by bandits, who have since been captured.

Government spokesperson Lambert Mende has suggested that the government of the DRC would be open to MONUSCO and FARDC working together in operations against the FDLR.  Efforts broke down earlier this year after MONUSCO objected to the inclusion of several generals with records of human rights abuses in FARDC forces.  The UN has called for a greater police presence in the DRC.  At the moment, there is only one police officer for every 700 people, and they are located disproportionately in urban areas.

South Sudan

Government forces and rebels each had multiple ups and downs this week.  The South Sudanese army reclaimed Malakal, the strategically important capital of Upper Nile state, a week after losing it to rebels.  Upper Nile state is rich in oil, but in Unity state, rebels allied with Riek Machar regained control of Tharjath oil field.  In Northern Bahr el Ghazal, rebels took over an administrative headquarters, only to leave shortly afterwards.  In Lakes state, there was communal violence unrelated to the conflict between Kiir and Machar, killing 15 people.

One thing the South Sudanese government and rebels can agree on this week is their unhappiness with the actions of the UN.  A UN report accused the SPLA of, among other human rights abuses, raping and burning girls in Unity state.  However, the South Sudanese embassy in Kenya accused the UN of bias, while Justice Minister Paulino Wanawila also rejected the allegations.  Rebel General James Koang has objected to the sanctions placed upon him by the UN Security Council, calling instead for justice and saying the sanctions will not affect him or the war.

Newly released figures show that 730,000 South Sudanese have fled to other countries since the civil war began, with Ethiopia the most frequent destination.  Over 150,000 people are sheltering in UN bases.  However, the war shows few signs of ending.  Riek Machar has said the war will last as long as Kiir is President and called on him to resign immediately.  There may be some promise in the G10, as the group of former political detainees has said that military action will not resolve the conflict and that they are trying to bridge differences between the two parties.

Sudan

US Special Envoy to Sudan Donald Booth will visit the country by the end of July.  He will discuss normalizing relations between the countries and ending sanctions on Sudan.  Sudanese Foreign Minister Ibrahim Ghandour has said he hopes the talks are based on a new approach as compared to past talks.  Ghandour also met with the African Union Special Envoy to Sudan to discuss the peace talks.

The ruling National Congress Party has said that it met with unnamed opposition parties in an attempt to convince them to participate in the national dialogue.  However, rebels in the SPLM

-N have reiterated their desire for a new peace process, saying the current one only suits the interests of the Sudanese government.

The Sudanese government will deploy a joint police and army force to East Darfur.  They said that recent tribal violence prompted the force, which will attempt to restore security to the area.

Syria

Syrian rebels led by al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra battled government forces in Aleppo, which is held by the Assad regime.  Rebels initially made advances and took important positions, but since have been fought back.  ISIS took back Ain Issa after several weeks of Kurdish control, only to lose it back several days later.  The town is 30 miles from ISIS’s capital, Raqqa.

The US-led coalition launched heavy strikes on Raqqa over the weekend, killing ten ISIS fighters.  However, there are also reports that eight civilians were killed in the strikes.  This week President Obama said that the US would step up its campaign against ISIS and its support to moderate rebels.  It was revealed later this week that the US’s “train and equip” program, at a cost of $500 million, has only trained 60 rebels.  The process has been slowed by attempts to vet rebels before permitting them to join the program, but defense officials maintain the program will be expanded to meet their targets.

The Syrian government has taken a $1 billion loan from ally Iran.  Iran has already loaned significant funds from Iran, as the Syrian government’s budget and economy has been hard hit by the conflict.  They aren’t the only ones suffering from the conflict, and new figures show that 4 million Syrians are refugees, making it the largest refugee crisis in 25 years.

Emerging Conflicts: El Salvador

El Salvador has been wracked by extensive violence as gangs fight among themselves and with police or other government forces.  The government lacks control of much of the country, with many areas dominated by gangs, particularly the Barrio 18 and MS-13 gangs.  The government had been in a truce with gangs for a year, with imprisoned gang members transferred to lower-security prisons and less violence between the parties.  However, the Salvadoran government broke the truce and launched a crackdown on gangs.  The crackdown has in many ways backfired, as there have been few victories against the gangs and the gangs have responded by stepping up violence.  The government has announced plans to further escalate the fight against the gangs, but there also might be hope through the promise of civilian self-protection strategies.

677 murders took place in June, 641 in May, and there have been over 3,000 in 2015.  This is a 55% increase in murders from the same period last year and is El Salvador’s worst violence since the civil war.  More civilians were killed in May in El Salvador than in ISIS-controlled Iraq.  Salvadoran civilians face constant risks.  They can be murdered for going into territory of a different gang than the one that controls their home neighborhood, having witnessed a crime, or just being suspected of assisting a rival gang or the police.  As many as 280,000 people have been internally displaced by the violence, and in lack of safe options, many have also attempted to escape to the US.

Schindler’s List (1993)- 

STAND members really like Schindler’s List. STAND Policy Intern and chapter leader Timmy Hirschel-Burns says “Schindler’s List powerfully examines acts of heroism among the horrors of the Holocaust. Although the Holocaust demonstrates the massive negative potential humans have, Schindler’s List also demonstrates the bravery of those who resisted it.” Last year’s West Regional Organizer, Heather Klain, and Jessica Goldstein, STAND Communications Intern and chapter leader also recommend this film. Bri’Anne Parkin, a Lemkin Summit attendee, and Julia Zukin, a rising senior at Emory University both recommend this film as well.

Hotel Rwanda (2004)-

Jessica Goldstein, STAND Communications Intern and chapter leader says, “Hotel Rwanda tells the story of one man–Paul Rusesabagina–to save his country (or at least a few people) from a genocide that is engulfing it. As far as genocide movies go, this one is a classic, a must-watch.” Heather Klain, last year’s West Regional Organizer, Bri’Anne Parkin, and Julia Zukin, a rising senior at Emory University also recommend this film as well.

The Act of Killing (2013)-

Former STAND Policy Coordinator, Danny Hirschel-Burns describes it as “the best film in existence about how perpetrators think, what drives them, and how they manage to commit unimaginable violence.” Justin Schmierer, a former regional organizer expressed: “The Act of Killing was really a great documentary in my opinion. Just saying, if people haven’t seen it.” Recent graduate of Ohio University and former co-president of the Ohio University STAND chapter Neti Gupta also recommends the film.

Watchers of the Sky (2014)-

Southeast Regional Organizer Bethany Vance, a rising sophomore at UNC Chapel Hill stated, “‘Watchers of the Sky’ is a documentary based on the work of Raphael Lemkin ( who invented the term “genocide”) while also taking a look at the contributions of others to the fight against genocide and mass atrocities. Lemkin lost his entire family during World War 2 and devoted the better part of his life to inventing a term for the deliberate killing of a large group of people in order to make it easier to prosecute those who commit acts of genocide.” Heather Klain, a former Western Regional Organizer also recommends this film.

Hannah Arendt (2012)-

Former Education Coordinator Sean Langberg expressed, “The movie explores Arendt’s contributions to the narrative of the Holocaust (and thus genocide rhetoric more broadly) that developed following the trial of Eichmann. I enjoyed learning more about how she refused to accept the bad apples’ story that was being told at the time.”

War Dance (2007)-

War Dance tells the story of three Ugandan children living in Potango refugee camp who have the opportunity to participate in a nationwide music and dance competition. Bri’Anne, a Lemkin Summit attended concludes that “War Dance is a pretty powerful film. It’s one of my favorites.”

Worse than War (2009)-

Jessica Goldstein, STAND Communications Intern and chapter leader says, “This film is for anyone who wants to understand the concept of genocide. Daniel Goldhagen’s interview with a genocidaire is unforgettable.”

Concerning Violence (2014)-

Recent graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill Danielle Allyn, a former STAND Education Task Force member says, “This documentary, based on the life and writings of Frantz Fanon, displays the everyday violence of colonial regimes in Africa and analyzes methods of resistance. Not a feel-good film but necessary all the same.”

The Wind That Shakes the Barley (2006) –

Former STAND Policy Coordinator, Danny Hirschel-Burns says, “it’s the best film I’ve ever seen about how violent politics work. The characters are multi-faceted and they’re struggling with dilemmas many people in conflict zones experience: how much power to cede to outsiders, the effectiveness of armed struggle, and the implications of sectarianism.”

The Good Lie (2014)-

STAND Student Director, Francesca Freeman, says; “The Good Lie is a film that documents the experience of Sudanese refugees from the attack on their village to their life in the United States. Many of the actors in the movie are Sudanese and either lived through or are related to people who lived through different conflicts in the region. Additionally, the Enough Project played a large part in the making of the film, and therefore it is historically accurate and effectively portrays the experience of the Lost Boys of Sudan.”

Virunga (2014)-

STAND Communications Intern and chapter leader Jessica Goldstein says, “I’ve been obsessed with this movie even before I saw it. I remember watching and rewatching the preview of this film until I finally got to see it. This film deserves all the hype it is getting. It shares the story of conservationists who understand that the park’s success is inextricably bound to Congo’s survival.”’

Look out for more comprehensive lists to come! Thanks to all of the STAND members who contributed to this list! Contact Francesca Freeman at ffreeman@standnow.org if you have any questions or contributions.

Burma deported 37 Rohingya to Bangladesh.  The people were found by the Burmese navy on a boat in the Bay of Bengal in May in an attempt to migrate.  Those who the Burmese authorities identified as Bangladeshi have been deported, while the others remain in makeshift camps.  In a separate incident, when Aung San Suu Kyi was asked this week whether Rohingya should be given citizenship, she did not give a clear answer, instead saying that the matter should be addressed “very, very carefully.”  At her 70th birthday celebration, she called on her National League of Democracy (NLD) supporters to prepare for a landslide victory in this year’s election.  However, their chances could be hampered by irregular voting lists, which the NLD claimed were frequently erroneous and contained errors in 30 to 80% of names in Rangoon Division.  The NLD will likely not get much support from Ma Ba Tha, and a prominent monk told the Buddhist nationalist organization to vote for the incumbent government rather than the opposition NLD.  At the same conference, Ma Ba Tha called for Muslim girls to be banned from wearing headscarves in schools.

Eight representatives of Burma’s ethnic minorities met with Chinese officials, following in the footsteps of Aung San Suu Kyi’s visit to China last week.  In Shan State, ethnic armed group The Restoration Council of Shan State was caught in controversy, where a prominent member of the Ta’ang National Party accused the armed group of abducting his party’s president and secretary.

A senior military MP has made clear his opposition to a change to constitutional Article 436.  The NLD has been trying to change the provision that requires a 75% vote to pass legislation.  As unelected military MPs are given 25% of seats, it essentially gives the military a veto.  Brigadier General Tin San Niang said Burma did not have enough experience with democracy to remove the provision.

Amnesty International has released a report on the harassment and limitations Burmese journalists face.  Although Burma removed many long-standing restrictions on journalists in 2012, journalist still operate in a climate of fear.  Burma’s government has dismissed the claims.

Central African Republic (CAR)

The controversy over Anders’ Kompass decision to send French authorities a report on French peacekeeper sex abuse in CAR continues.  It has created an internal split in the UN, with High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad al Hussein seeing the disclosure as a leak while many see Kompass as a whistleblower.  The UN has hired an external panel to investigate the allegations.  There was also a new case of peacekeeper sex abuse that emerged this week.

CAR has scheduled the electoral calendar for this year.  A census will take place between June 27th and July 27th, a referendum on the new constitution will take place on October 4th, Presidential and Parliamentary elections will occur on October 18th, and if a second round of elections is needed it will take place on November 22nd.  The elections will require a budget of $34.6 million, but only about half of that has already been funded.  Additionally, the National Elections Observatory has called for reform in the electoral code to improve the elections.

DR Congo (DRC)

Clashes took place in North Kivu with Congolese soldiers facing off against Mai Mai and FDLR combatants.  There do not appear to have been heavy casualties.  There was also fighting in Garamba National Park, where poachers killed two soldiers and one ranger in an ambush.  The poachers are believed to be from South Sudan, which borders the park.  In Western DRC, there was a riot at a camp for ex-militants.  The camp houses over 800 surrendered militants from multiple groups.  After a rumor started that a guard had stolen $30,000 intended for rations at the camp, a riot broke out and the militants demanded to be set free and allowed to return home.

The preparations for the upcoming elections have been disrupted by duplicates on a number of electoral lists for provincial elections.  Candidates have asked for ten days to correct the problems.

The McCain Institute has released rare polling data from North Kivu.  The poll found people had little trust in the electoral commission and 77% of people opposed changing the constitution to allow a third term for Joseph Kabila.  The Congolese military and police were given 69% and 57% approval ratings, respectively, while UN peacekeepers only got a 21% approval rating.  Large majorities approved of measures to increase female representatives in government.

South Sudan

The SPLM-IO has said it remains committed to the Arusha process but said the talks should not be in Juba.  Meanwhile, Riek Machar met with Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta in Nairobi.  Also, Pagan Amul has been reinstated as SPLM Secretary-General.  The SPLM convened a special meeting after the appointment.

The South Sudanese government has announced that it plans to resume oil production in Unity state.  Oil production has been stopped for over a year because of instability resulting from the war.  The UN had criticism for the South Sudanese government, saying the SPLM has consistently failed to cooperate with the UN and not given proper access to UN workers in the country.  In Western Bahr el Ghazal state, the government arrested a journalist without explanation before releasing him the next day.

Four women and one man were injured in a shooting at an IDP camp in Juba.  While the perpetrators are not confirmed, residents of the camp accused government soldiers.  The SPLM-IO also had accusations for the SPLM, claiming they had restarted fighting in Jonglei state in violation of the cessation of hostilities agreement.

Sudan

The continuation of UNAMID remains in question.  Its mandate has been extended for a year by the African Union, although an exit strategy remains in place.  However, the UN Security Council still must approve the measure for it to take effect, but that vote has been postponed until next week.  The Sudanese government had called for the mandate not to be renewed while the United States insisted that it should be.  UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon also called for the renewal of the mandate.

President Omar al-Bashir announced Sudan would conduct a census in 2018, the country’s first since the succession of South Sudan.  In another announcement, he said that the army had obtained weapons that made it a “large and sophisticated deterrent force.”  The Sudanese government also criticized the United States for its failure to remove Sudan from the state sponsors of terrorism list, citing “double standards.”

The leader of the Reform Now Movement, Ghazi Salah al-Din Attabani, has criticized the government’s conduct during peace negotiations.  He warned that if dialogue did not succeed Sudan would have a major security problem.

Syria

Multiple armed groups have engaged in heavy fighting over the last week.  Supported by US airstrikes, the Kurdish YPG made large advances into ISIS territory, capturing a military base and the town Ain Issa.  The advance placed themselves within 50 km of ISIS’s capital, Raqqa, but Kurdish forces have said they do not intend to march on Raqqa.  Turkey, an opponent of the YPG, was concerned with their advance and accused the YPG of ethnic cleansing.  However, ISIS responded by attacking the important Kurdish-held city Kobani as well as Assad-held areas in Hasakah.  In Deraa, an alliance of rebels fought government forces in an attempt to take the city.

ISIS has moved to stop oil flows to areas controlled by other forces.  As ISIS controls almost all of Syria’s oil, civilians are fearful that hospitals may not be able to function and that there will be massive food shortages.  The think tank Chatham House released a report detailing the extent of Syria’s economic collapse as a result of the war, and said that it could weaken the Assad regime.  The war has also led to increased class divisions, with middle and upper classes tending to support Assad while lower classes support the rebels.  The Assad regime also still has support from Russia, and President Putin reaffirmed his position that Assad should stay in power.

The UN released a report documenting attacks on civilians from the Assad government and rebels, noting that the Assad government has bombed Aleppo daily for the last year.  The Assad government has also struck ten medical facilities with barrel bombs since May.  Over 70 countries condemned the Assad government for their human rights abuses.

Emerging Conflicts: Iraq

Conflict continues to rage in Iraq as ISIS conducted a number of attacks in the last week.  Northeast of Fallujah ISIS attacked Iraqi army forces and then lured them into an ambush, killing 14.  In western Anbar province, rockets killed nine after hitting a number of civilian installations, while six were killed after a car bomb exploded in Baghdad.  In Diyala province, 14 people were killed when an ISIS suicide bomber attacked a meeting of Sunni tribal leaders.

Four years after exiting Iraq, NATO plans to renew their involvement in the conflict.  Details are not completely determined yet, but it seems likely that NATO will train Iraqi troops.  The WHO, however, may be forced to shut down their network of 77 clinics in the country due to poor funding and a lack of security.  Meanwhile, US airstrikes continue, one of which killed ISIS commander and suspect in the Benghazi attack, Ali Awni al-Harzi.  Another airstrike may have caused a number of civilian casualties, and the Pentagon has launched an investigation into the strike.