This week’s update focuses on failing peace talks in South Sudan and Burundi; hunger and famine in South Sudan and Nigeria; the proposed halt to the US conflict minerals rule, which will affect progress made on armed group funding, supply chain transparency, and money laundering; renewed fighting in the Central African Republic; and protests against Nigerian president Muhammadu Buhari.

South Sudan

On February 7, The Sudan Tribune published a report that two women have died from starvation in South Sudan’s Eastern Equatoria state. The incident reflects the food security difficulties that South Sudan is currently facing.

Since South Sudan’s controversial 2015 peace deal has created controversy because it requests that rebels who fought the administration of President Salva Kiir return to Juba, the capital city of South Sudan. The peace deal was administered by the former Botswana president Festus Mogae, who serves in the Joint Evaluation and Monitoring Commission (JMEC). Mogae reportedly said to the BBC that former Vice President Riek Machar should not return to Juba. These comments have raised the concerns of human rights experts who believe that Mogae’s remarks show favoritism toward the government of South Sudan. As the administrator of the peace deal, Mogae should not show favoritism to either side.

On February 17, South Sudanese minister of Labor Lieutenant General Gabriel Duop Lam joined the side of the rebels, marking the second high-level resignation this week from the government. The defection was confirmed at a news conference in Juba on Friday.

On the same day, a senior UN human rights official called for the need for accountability for “those committing atrocity crimes in conflict-torn South Sudan.” UN Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights, Andrew Gilmour said, “This is a war that has been waged against the men, women and children of South Sudan, and the only way of ending this onslaught will be when the perpetrators face consequences for what they’re doing.” Mr. Gilmour travelled to the country last month, where he observed the devastation and human rights abuses suffered by civilians. Gilmour went on to emphasize his frustrations with the limited access available to the UN Mission to South Sudan, whose mission is to protect and provide humanitarian assistance to civilians.

Great Lakes Region of Africa

Burundi

Peace dialogue in Burundi is crumbling as the government continues to refuse to participate. The Burundian government’s refusal to participate lies in the invitation of groups who they do not consider peaceful stakeholders. Meanwhile, the National Council for the Respect of the Arusha Accord (CNARED), an opposition group predominantly in exile, complained that Benjamin Mkapa, former president of Tanzania and mediator of the talks, was not including all invested groups in the dialogue and was therefore failing to represent the views of the Burundian people. In an attempt to satisfy CNARED’s concerns, Mkapa agreed to allow individuals accused of participating in a 2015 coup attempt to participate in the discussion. This decision spurred the Burundian government’s refusal to continue the peace talks, leading many in the region to doubt that the dialogue will see any success. The talks were scheduled to run from February 16 to 18, but the Burundian government refused to send representatives.

The government in Burundi maintains that the political crisis has ended and that Burundi is now a safe country, issuing a call for refugees to return home. The response from surrounding countries has been hesitant at best. In Uganda, contradictory statements have been made regarding the return of refugees to Burundi. The Minister for Disaster Preparedness Hillary Onek said that refugees would receive a three-month extension if they desired to stay, but the minister’s deputy Musa Ecweru claimed that the laws regarding refugees require that their return be voluntary. The Commissioner for Refugees of the Office of the Prime Minister, Mr. Kazungu Apollo, released a clarification that Uganda will support Burundians seeking asylum until they feel it is unsafe for them to return home.

The UN peacekeepers Burundi has sent to other countries, especially Somalia, have provided a source of financial support to the country’s defense department. The continued use of Burundian peacekeepers has raised concerns that the UN is indirectly funding repression in Burundi. Though the European Union pays the Burundian soldiers’ salaries, it has requested that the African Union find a way to pay Burundian peacekeepers without passing through Burundian banks.  

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Although pressure has been applied to the Congolese government to hold elections in 2017, the budget minister claimed on February 15 that “it would be difficult to gather the necessary $1.8 billion” for the election. The minister, Pierre Kangudia, claims that the government does not have the money to host elections in 2017 come just twelve days after the death of opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi. Tshisekedi was expected to lead a transitional government with the current President Kabila until elections could be held later this year. His death, along with the statements from the budget minister, have led to a renewed uncertainty about the future of democracy in DRC. The minister also stated that “we have to fill the holes before we can even put anything in it [the treasury],” a reference to the corruption present in the country.

Meanwhile, President Trump re-ignited a conversation about conflict minerals and the Dodd-Frank law in the United States when a directive was leaked that would temporarily suspend the Dodd-Frank law for two years. The executive order declared that the secretary of the treasury would “review regulations on financial institutions and report back specific recommendations.” The Dodd-Frank act requires US firms to “declare where they’re sourcing their gold, tin, and other minerals, often used in consumer electronics.” Removing this piece of legislation, or even simply suspending it, could lead to a resurgence in investment in conflict minerals: gold, tin, tungsten, and tantalum. In eastern Congo, armed rebel groups sell these resources to fund violent activities, and this policy change opens the possibility of a backslide in improvements made in responsible sourcing practices in the past few years.

Violence between the government and various militias in the DRC continues. Over a five-day span from February 9 to February 13, soldiers killed at least 101 people in an altercation with the Kamwina Nsapu group in central Congo. UN human rights spokesperson Liz Throssell accused the troops of “firing indiscriminately” and using “excessive and disproportionate” force to handle the situation. The deaths of 39 women in this altercation support the accusation. The UN peacekeeping mission in the DRC also stated that the Kamwina Nsapu group had “committed violent atrocities and used child soldiers.”

Major armed groups active in the eastern DRC include the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), which also carries out abuses in the Central African Republic, the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), comprised predominantly of Rwandan Hutu linked to the 1994 genocide, the Forces for Patriotic Resistance in Ituri (FRPI), which is responsible for various abuses against civilians, local Mai-Mai community-based militias, and the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an armed Ugandan group that has bases in eastern Congo.

Central and West Africa

Central African Republic (CAR)

In the last three weeks, the Central African Republic (CAR) has seen a resurgence of violence perpetrated by armed groups. On February 7, rebels killed at least five civilians after the Central African army, with support from UN peacekeepers, killed Youssouf Malinga, also known as “Big Man,” a leader of a local Muslim militia group, during an operation. Additionally, over two dozen were wounded, and two churches and a school were destroyed. Just four days earlier, a clash between two armed groups in Bocaranga killed civilians and compelled thousands to flee to nearby forests.

Much of this violence continues because of its political and economic expediency. Warlords continue to exploit religious tensions in the country to gain popular support and strengthen their political bargaining power, thus increasing their chances of earning a government position. Because the judicial system has been unwilling or unable to prosecute these individuals for their crimes, a culture of impunity has been created, encouraging such behavior. In fact, the idea of blanket amnesty for war crimes recently arose while President Faustin-Archange Touadéra was meeting with the leaders of several armed groups. Beyond political rewards, the revenue that armed groups obtain from natural resource extraction further incentivizes them to continue to perpetuate violence. This may be exacerbated if President Donald Trump follows through on a proposal that would suspend federal rules on conflict minerals. Members of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) say that this policy could lead to “the resurgence of armed groups controlling and exploiting minerals. This might ultimately lead to a generalised proliferation of terrorist groups, trans-boundary money laundry and illicit financial flows in the region.”

Much of the future of CAR depends on action taken by the international community. On February 15, the Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous warned the international community not to turn away from the country, as armed groups remain a grave threat. As such, the peacekeeping force in the country has changed its deployment to more effectively protect the country. Regional organizations have also gotten involved, with the African Union, the Economic Community of Central African States, and the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region launching a joint-initiative for a national peace and reconciliation agreement. Only concerted international attention will allow this lengthy conflict and humanitarian crisis to cease.

Nigeria

According to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), at least half a million children under the age of five in northeastern Nigeria will suffer from severe acute malnutrition during this upcoming year, leading up to twenty percent of them to die, unless more aid is given. At least fourteen million require some type of humanitarian assistance. The hunger crisis in the northeast is caused primarily by Boko Haram, whose attacks have displaced millions of farmers, significantly reducing their ability to farm. The man-made famine is the first in over a decade. Donor countries from 14 countries pledged to scale up funding for vulnerable groups threatened by famine at the Oslo conference last month.

Thousands of Nigerians are expressing their grievances at the present humanitarian situation by protesting the government of Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari. Although much of Boko Haram has been defeated, citizens believe Buhari has failed in his other responsibilities related to eliminating corruption, bolstering the education system, and promoting economic growth. In particular, the economy has suffered under Buhari with plummeting exchange rates and virtually non-existent foreign direct investment. Anger is exacerbated by Buhari’s decision to receive medical treatment outside of the country, attesting to his lack of trust in local healthcare. Concern for the president’s health—and questions about whether it may be worse than government officials are saying—is putting further pressure on the government and raising concerns about the continued functioning of the political system.

Both Boko Haram and other militants in the Niger Delta continue to pose a problem in Nigeria. Seven suicide bombers, six of whom were women, launched an attack in Maiduguri on February 16. Though there were no civilian casualties during this attack, such attacks continue to occur with regularity around the country. Horrifically, Boko Haram is now deploying children as young as nine, who are able to get through security checkpoints more easily. The petroleum minister of Nigeria also recently announced that armed groups in the Niger Delta cost the  country between $50 and $100 billion in oil revenue as it was forced to cut back production by nearly two hundred thousand barrels per day. Although a detailed plan has recently been released to end the insurgency through development of infrastructure and social institutions, it remains to be seen whether Nigeria will have the financial or technical capacity to effectively do the job.

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Justin Cole is STAND’s Central and West Africa Coordinator. He is a Junior at UNC Chapel Hill where he majors in Economics and Peace, War, and Defense.

Elizabeth Westbrook is STAND’s Great Lakes of Africa Coordinator. She is a Junior at UNC Chapel Hill where she is a Political Science major.

Joanna Liang is STAND’s Sudan and South Sudan Coordinator. She is a Junior at the University of Delaware where she majors in History Education.

Jason Qu is STAND’s Emerging Conflicts Coordinator, focusing today on Nigeria. He is a Senior at Bronx High School of Science.

This week’s news brief focuses on President Kabila’s struggle for power in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the threat of  terrorist attacks in Burundi, and a renewal of violence in the Central African Republic despite recent pledges of aid. Though Boko Haram has continued to wreak havoc in Nigeria, the Nigerian army has had some recent successes against the terrorist group.

Great Lakes Region of Africa

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Concerns over increasing violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo mounted as December 19 approached without any likelihood of a peaceful transition of power. Over the past months, violence has periodically erupted  in direct response to the continuation of President Joseph Kabila’s term, as well as by militant groups, particularly in the east, who benefit from a lack of law enforcement. President Kabila remains in office due to the ruling of the constitutional court, which claims that he has the right to remain in office until a new president can be elected democratically. In the leadup to the 19th, the government police force declared all protest illegal.

LUCHA, a youth-led rights group in the DRC, maintains, along with many members of opposition parties, that the end of Kabila’s term was December 19,  2016. Multiple activists in the group, which organized peaceful protests as the date approached, have been detained unjustly. The detentions, along with the violent response to peaceful protests by the Congolese government, led to an increase in violent altercations between protesters and security forces.

Opposition members claimed that they intended to protest until Kabila was forced to step down. The opposition held protests on September 19 as a warning, and were met with overly aggressive and violent police action resulting in at least 50 deaths. Within two days of Kabila’s decision not to step down, demonstrations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo led to the deaths of over 20 people. Protesters in the capital Kinshasa set fire to the headquarters of the ruling party. Police responded to protesters with tear gas and by opening fire on multiple demonstrations. Meanwhile, members of the police force went door to door arresting known opposition members in cities considered to be strongholds. Congolese diaspora also participated in demonstrations in both Belgium and South Africa.

Access to phone lines and the internet was restricted before the election, making it more difficult for opposition groups to communicate and for the community to receive outside information. The main target was social media, which is especially important to young members of the opposition. Youth in Congo make up a significant portion of opposition movements as they pursue a more positive future.

International pressure is increasing from all directions on Kabila to step down and to respect the rights of his citizens. Calls for Kabila to respect human rights came from the United Nations, the European Union, Britain, France and the United States. Lawmakers in the United States also pushed Kabila to step down, however he has clearly chosen to remain.

Over the weekend of December 4, 31 people were killed in an altercation  between an insurgent group and government forces. The violence occurred in the Kasai province and has claimed to have been “sparked by a row between an uncle and a nephew over the title of a traditional chief.” The “row” resulted in the deaths of eighteen militiamen and thirteen members of the force sent to end the violence.

On November 27, an attack by a militia group killed 34 people in the North Kivu province in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. The Mai-Mai Mazembe militia group who perpetrated the attack are one of many established by warlords in eastern DRC. In addition to this violence, there have been disputed reports of the Twa ethnic group attacking a freight train resulting in one death and seventeen injuries. The actions of various militia and ethnic groups have become more transparent as forces anticipate a transition into a more lawlessness.

Human Rights Watch Senior Researcher Ida Sawyer testified at the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission to draw attention to the violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and call on the US government to continue to apply sanctions and pressure for a transition of power. She suggested the possibility for the government to combine forces with various militias to maintain control over the country, which may lead to mixed results.

Burundi

Burundi faces the threat of potential terror attacks on Western and local targets while dialogue attempting to find a solution to conflict remains stagnant.

In Burundi, police have been informed of threats from regional terror groups to the Bujumbura International Airport and the Kajaga neighborhood. The police force claims that it has received similar threats in the past beginning in 2007 with their support of peacekeeping missions in Somalia. The US embassy has issued a warning to all travelers to take extra precautions when traveling by air or in the Kajaga neighborhood.

Other residents of Burundi face terror as they discover crosses painted on their homes in the middle of the night. Local governments claim that “no political, ethnic or religious group in particular was targeted” and that the Imbonerakure, the youth wing of the ruling CNDD-FDD party, was not responsible because they were included in the targeted houses. However, residents of the town are skeptical and believe that the Imbonerakure is at fault and is targeting those in opposition to the ruling party.

On December 8, dialogue facilitator former Tanzanian President Benjamin Mkapa arrived in Bujumbura for a series of meetings. There is uncertainty over who will participate in the dialogue, as members of various opposition parties have previously fled Burundi to other East African countries, and CNARED-GIRITEKA, the main opposition coalition group, has said that they no longer consider Mkapa as a legitimate facilitator of dialogue. This move came after Mkapa publicly recognized Nkurunziza and his government as the legitimate leaders of Burundi, saying that those who believe otherwise are “out of their mind.” Mkapa is basing his meetings off of a roadmap developed to engage Burundian politicians and parties and to encourage stabilization of the country, and has said he would like an agreement signed by June. Mkapa has met with political parties, religious groups, and other members of Burundian society. However, the current government claims it will not be speaking with opposition parties. The dialogue has received expressions of support from France, who has been a crucial aid provider in recent years.

In Gitega, attempts at a grassroots solution to peace are arising. Open discussions invite anyone able to participate to come and express their concerns. Some negotiators see this method as a potential way to include local people in high-level mediation talks, which have thus far only included elites and political opposition members.

The progress of human rights in Burundi is still deeply debated as the President of the National Independent Human Rights Commission claims improvements have been made this year in comparison to 2015. However, on December 18, more than 500 families were forcibly removed from their homes in the Kagaragara locality of Buringa Commune by the government. This is a new and unprecedented level of invasion into personal life. The governor of the area claims that families were moved into a more stable area because criminals in the Western region are destabilizing it. Individuals who were removed no longer have access to important documents and personal items that were stored in their homes. They also no longer have access to money and their crops, which will lead to an even greater increase in hunger in this region of Burundi.

Central and West Africa

Central African Republic (CAR)

On November 18, European donors at the Brussels Conference pledged approximately $2.2 billion of aid to the Central African Republic (CAR) after President Faustin-Archange Touadéra described his strategies for bringing long-term peace to his country. Although this amount is short of the $3 billion requested by the government in its recovery plan, Federica Mogherini, the foreign affairs chief of the European Union, stated his hope that the financial assistance would move the CAR towards “sustainable growth, deep reforms, and national reconciliation.” Such progress is needed quickly given the severe humanitarian crisis in the country. Data from the United Nations demonstrates that twenty percent of children will die prior to turning five years old and half of those remaining will experience chronic malnutrition. Clearly, any help from the international community cannot arrive quickly enough.

Unfortunately, there was an abrupt renewal of violence shortly after the announcement of this news. On November 21, fighting between the Popular Front for the Renaissance of the Central African Republic (FPRC) and the Union for Peace in Central Africa (UPC) that began in Bria spread to Bambari. At least eighty-five people were killed, dozens more were wounded, and over ten thousand people have been forced to flee their homes from clashes between these groups. What is perhaps most troubling about this incident is that the FPRC allegedly targeted ethnic Fulani citizens, killing them in their homes and making it impossible for survivors to access hospitals. Adama Dieng, the UN Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, warned that continuing to commit such crimes could make the perpetrators subject to the jurisdiction of international courts. In response, the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission (MINUSCA) sent more troops to the territory surrounding Bria.

In the midst of these atrocities, the UN recently finished investigating the stories of dozens of women and children who allege they were subjected to sexual assault by peacekeepers in CAR. Because the crimes allegedly took place long before the beginning of the investigation in April, interviews conducted with nearly one hundred and fifty women and children were the main focus of the Office of Internal Oversight Services (OIOS). Although some evidence was dismissed as unreliable, the OIOS ultimately released the names of forty-one peacekeepers who may have committed such crimes, sixteen of whom were from Gabon and twenty-five of whom were from Burundi. The OIOS has requested that these governments process these individuals in their respective judicial systems, noting that “responsibility for further investigations lies with Burundi and Gabon.” Even though the United Nations condemned these crimes, it will likely be far more difficult now to build trust between peacekeepers and the local population in CAR, which will be crucial for the cycle of violence to end and for the country to move forward.

On December 14, the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) reported an “alarming increase” in atrocities in the Central African Republic (CAR) over the last few months. Specifically, 1,301 human rights abuses have been confirmed, which represents a seventy percent increase when compared to the time between September 2014 and May 2015. MINUSCA noted that the abuses “were primarily arbitrary executions, cruel treatment, sexual violence, deprivations of liberty, destruction of private property, and restrictions on freedom of movement.” Séléka and anti-Balaka militia groups continue to exert a great deal of authority in the CAR as the government struggles to contain them.

Human Rights Watch released a report on December 20 detailing the rise of a new armed group in the Central African Republic (CAR) known as “Return, Reclamation, Rehabilitation,” or 3R. The group emerged in the northwest, which has largely been neglected by the fragile CAR government as well as the international community, and continues to claim that it is attempting to protect the minority Peuhl from anti-Balaka fighters. Human Rights Watch has confirmed that 3R has slaughtered civilians, raped women, and destroyed countless villages as MINUSCA has been unable to curtail the violence.

Much of the ongoing violence in CAR can be tied to impunity. Although those who commit crimes in CAR can be prosecuted by both the International Criminal Court and the Special Criminal Court, a court consisting of both national and international judges to investigate human rights abuses since 2003, there has not been enough international support for these bodies to operate effectively.  Worse, it has been incredibly difficult to negotiate with the warlords who lead armed groups because they have too much to lose. Not only would they lose access to the natural resources in their pockets of territory, but they would potentially be subject to punishment for their role in human rights abuses. It is yet to be seen whether the $2.2 billion of aid recently pledged at the Brussels Conference will be enough to end the violence. It may be time for the UN to send a stronger peacekeeping force to the country and to broaden its mandate.

Nigeria

At the third annual Dakar International Forum on Peace and Security in Africa that took place on December 6 in Senegal, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari argued that the complete defeat of Boko Haram was imminent. Unfortunately, recent events suggest that this is likely too optimistic. Although the terrorist organization has lost the vast majority of the territory that it once controlled, it remains a deadly force. Yaga Yarkawa, the chair of the Chibok government area, recently stated that “Chibok is not safe, contrary to claims by government and security operatives,” citing attacks against over half a dozen villages by Boko Haram. The terrorist organization has also continued inflicting damage against the military in Nigeria. On November 23, a lieutenant general in the army was pronounced dead and just one day later, two soldiers were killed in Askira Uba in Borno state. On December 12, yet another officer in the Nigerian army was killed, Lieutenant Colonel O. Umusu. Unsurprisingly, Nigeria is ranked third this year with regards to the number of terrorist attacks within its territory and William Assanvo, an expert on militants in Nigeria, recently said that “there is little to indicate the group is nearing its end or even that it is severely weakened.” Concentrated efforts by the Nigerian military must continue if the country is to be successful in defeating the group.

The Nigerian army has had a few recent successes. In a campaign against Boko Haram in the Sambisa Forest, nearly two thousand women and children were reportedly rescued and over five hundred Boko Haram terrorists were captured. On December 20, Abubakar Shekau, the leader of Boko Haram, was allegedly captured in the area around the Gafa Mountain. However, there is some question as to whether the man seized was actually Shekau.

There is one important bright spot with regards to those living in the Borno State. On December 16, crude oil was discovered in this territory, which could potentially help its economy recover after being ravaged by Boko Haram for years. Unfortunately, it will likely be difficult to obtain the oil until Boko Haram is permanently defeated, which could obviously take many more years.

Though not often talked about, some of the worst atrocities in Nigeria, have been conducted not by Boko Haram, but by Nigerian military officers. According to Amnesty International, Nigerian soldiers have killed at least one hundred and fifty protestors between August 2015 and August 2016 by firing into crowds. Those responsible for these human rights abuses have not been investigated. On the other hand, some progress finally has been made with regards to holding Nigerian soldiers accountable for sexually abusing women and children who were forced to flee from their homes because of Boko Haram. On December 6, Ibrahim Idris, the Inspector-General of Police, said that ten people had been arrested as suspects. He further assured the country that those found guilty of committing such crimes would face justice in court.

Beyond the atrocities committed by both Boko Haram and Nigerian soldiers, the humanitarian crisis in Nigeria continues. The UN estimates that 400,000 children are at risk of starving in northeastern Nigeria. Because homes and farms have been burned by Boko Haram, many families are unable to obtain food, leaving them to hope that the international community will intervene and provide assistance. Unfortunately, the response of the UN has been essentially nonexistent, prompting criticism from some in Europe. Although the international institution finally admitted that “the crisis can no longer be ignored” on December 2, there is concern as to whether this recognition will be enough to save tens of thousands of Nigerians from impending starvation. It is also problematic that Buhari is insisting that the UN is exaggerating the magnitude of the crisis for “financial gain,” a claim repudiated by countless sources.

Over the past two weeks, Boko Haram has continued to commit atrocities throughout Nigeria. On December 10, two schoolgirls blew themselves up in the middle of a market in Madagali, a town in northeastern Nigeria, killing forty-five people and injuring thirty-three more. Using young girls as suicide bombers has become a disturbing trend for Boko Haram, as young girls generally do not attract as much attention from authorities.

South Sudan

On December 20, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned that South Sudan may face genocide unless immediate action is taken to enact an arms embargo. He warned, “If we fail to act, South Sudan will be on a trajectory towards mass atrocities.” The U.N. chief urged the Security Council to impose the arms embargo which would “diminish the capacity of all sides to wage war.” U.S. Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power has said there will be a vote on the sanctions by the end of 2016 and council members will have to make a decision “on the issues of life and death that have been raised by the secretary-general.”

On December 19, South Sudan President Salva Kiir rejected reports of an imminent genocide in the country, claiming it was only a strategy to justify calls for an imposition of targeted sanctions and an arms embargo.

The humanitarian situation has deteriorated dramatically in the past year. In 2016, 6.1 million people in South Sudan required humanitarian assistance, and the aid community expects this number to rise by 20 percent to 30 percent in 2017.

Conditions for South Sudanese refugees in Uganda are grim. A clinic called Ocea Centre Two that was built in the early 1990s to serve local Ugandans, has become a settlement of some 85,000 South Sudanese refugees. As the UN makes multiple statements regarding ethnic cleansing in South Sudan, Uganda can barely open camps quickly enough to accommodate the influx of refugees. An average of 1,500 have been arriving every day since July 2016.

On December 19, the UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) reported that 584,573 South Sudanese refugees have arrived in Uganda since the civil war broke out in December 2013. Resources for the refugees are limited. There isn’t enough food, water, or sanitary pads for women, and education for children is limited. It may be safer in Uganda, but conditions are also inhumane. In August, the World Food Programme (WFP) cut rations by 50 percent for all refugees who had been in Uganda before July 2015. Now, the organization faces a funding shortage of $62 million for all refugee operations in the country for the next six months. If this continues, WFP will be forced to cut the quota for new arrivals as well. Even though they are receiving their allocated amount of food, most newly arrived refugees speak of hunger and say they don’t eat enough.

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Justin Cole is STAND’s Central and West Africa Coordinator. He is a Junior at UNC Chapel Hill where he majors in Economics and Peace, War, and Defense.

Elizabeth Westbrook is STAND’s Great Lakes of Africa Coordinator. She is a Junior at UNC Chapel Hill where she is a Political Science major.

Joanna Liang is STAND’s Sudan and South Sudan Coordinator. She is a Junior at the University of Delaware where she majors in History Education.

The Northeast region of Nigeria is devastated by famine and food insecurity. The famine in Nigeria is the first man-made famine in the world in over a decade. UNICEF has stated that 75,000 children will die the next year in Borno State, a state roughly the size of West Virginia, if the humanitarian crisis is not urgently addressed. Recent reports show that roughly 4 million people are experiencing food crisis and 2.5 million children have severe cases of malnutrition and are struggling to survive.

While the Northeast has suffered from chronic underdevelopment, these alarming levels of suffering are in large part due to violence caused by Boko Haram, the same group which kidnapped the 276 Nigerian Chibok school girls two summers ago and committed the largest number of atrocities against civilians of any “terrorist” group in the world in 2015. The Nigerian government and humanitarian community have not been able to access civilians living in the areas that Boko Haram controlled for much of the last two years. As the international community regains access to the region, they are finding a humanitarian catastrophe of epic proportions.

As it stands, families do not have the resources to respond to this crisis. As a humanitarian projects manager Michael Mu’azu for Mercy Corps told The Huffington Post, “The carnage becomes more glaring as we gain access to newer areas, and it has become a struggle for those of us in the forefront to comprehend how to help the thousands we come across who need our support.” Families have spent years living in a threatening environment and now must find the strength to face a new kind of threat which attacks the most basic connection between a mother and a child. Field workers are reporting that mothers are now too malnourished to produce breast milk for their own children.

Visibility on this crisis, now, is vital. Lest we repeat: this is a famine, the first man-made, preventable famine in the world in over a decade. Unfortunately, media and politicians alike are preoccupied with a wide range of complex issues, but that is no excuse to let the famine in Nigeria go unchecked.

Photo by Corinna Robbins/Mercy Corps

We must use our combined voice to advocate on behalf of the needs of Nigerian families. We must make it perfectly clear that we as Americans, as parents, as siblings, and most importantly as humans will not tolerate this sort of tragedy. We will not patiently wait as hundreds of thousands of families bury their children. We will not wait for a generation of Nigerians to die.  Our collective morality will not allow for it. Instead we will raise our voice to our communities and our elected officials and we will demand greater funding and political attention for Nigeria. We will demand a concise, efficient, and effective humanitarian response before this crisis escalates even further.

The death of a child is inherently wrong. It is an experience that cannot truly be imagined until someone has lived through it. Many parents, regardless of where they live in this world, feel as though they are put on this earth to protect their child and to ensure their child has everything they need. Parents often equate the loss of a child with a direct failure on their part to act as a guardian. We cannot allow the mothers and fathers of Nigeria to carry this emotional weight alone. Instead, we will listen to their stories and as an international community of caretakers we will walk with them, we will support them, and we will address this crisis.

Take action now: sign this petition to Congress to ensure there’s enough humanitarian assistance to Nigeria to stop this tragedy and continue to raise your voice to #FightTheFamine.

Want to take further action? Call your Senators and Representatives, and mobilize your family and friends to do the same. Now is the moment to make a difference, let’s not pass it by.

Note: Featured Image by Tom Saater/Mercy Corps

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Corie Walsh recently graduated from University of North Carolina, with a degree in Peace, War, and Defense. She does research on issues mass atrocities, civilian protection, and identity-driven conflict. Notably, Corie co-founded a micro-finance program for Ugandan women; started the first collegiate chapter of the UN Shot@Life Campaign; and has engaged in initiatives such as AIESEC, RESULTS, Roosevelt Institute, Conference on World Affairs, and Beyond Conflict. She can be reached at coriewalsh@gmail.com.

This week’s news brief focuses on the Central African Republic (CAR), Nigeria, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Burundi. Human rights are under attack in Burundi as its leaders undergo steps to remove themselves from the International Criminal Court (ICC) and deny UN investigators access to the country. Violence continues to grow in the Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo. However, there is some good news from Nigeria, where Boko Haram released 21 school girls previously held captive.

Great Lakes Region of Africa

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Congolese President Joseph Kabila, his party, the People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and smaller opposition parties have officially proposed to delay the presidential election until April 2018. The proposal would allow Kabila to stay in power until elections, but with a Prime Minister selected from the opposition. On Monday, October 17, the Constitutional Court gave the electoral commission permission to delay the election, following the signing of the deal.

The main opposition bloc was not involved in the decision making of the election delay, and an official of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress, the largest opposition party in the DRC, Jean-Marc Kabund, claimed that his group did not recognize the agreement, which he described as a working document. The bloc has claimed they will continue to apply pressure to have the transition of power take place as originally planned in December, which could lead to more violent protests similar to those held in September.

On October 13, Human Rights Watch (HRW) distributed a message to European Union (EU) member states encouraging the imposition of targeted sanctions to “help prevent the situation in Congo from spiraling out of control in the coming weeks.” HRW has encouraged the EU to place sanctions on senior security forces officials, intelligence officers, and government officials to send the message that the international community will not tolerate repressive actions. HRW also issued a report that found that security forces used excessive force in September, resulting in the the deaths of 56 opposition protesters. In response, Fatou Bensouda, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, sent a delegation to the DRC to call for restraint from both the opposition and the ruling party.

Meanwhile, in Katanga province, a dispute erupted between the Batwa and Luba ethnic groups. The Batwa accused the Luba of beating up vendors and imposing an illegal tax on the sale of caterpillars, which are one of the Batwa’s main sources of income. In response to the tax, members of the Batwa group killed several members of the Luba ethnic group, who in response killed thirteen Batwa. The groups have never fought over caterpillars before, suggesting that motivation for the violence comes most likely from their ongoing feud.

Burundi

Burundi has attempted to remove themselves from the scrutiny of the international community by officially declaring their withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (ICC) and by denying three United Nations (UN) rights investigators access to the country.

On October 18, Burundi became the first country to begin the withdrawal process from the ICC. President Pierre Nkurunziza signed legislation following a vote by lawmakers to withdraw; however, the withdrawal will not stop existing investigations that began before their withdrawal. The ICC began a preliminary investigation in April of this year, but will face difficulties pursuing a formal investigation because the government refuses to allow outsiders, and in particular those with a human rights focus, into Burundi.

Three UN investigators, Pablo de Greiff, Christoff Heyns, and Maya Sahli-Fadel, submitted a report on September 20 accusing the Government of Burundi and the people associated with it of “gross, widespread and systemic human rights violations.” These included enforced disappearances, torture, sexual and gender-based violence, and extrajudicial executions. The Burundian government has since banned all three investigators from entering the country. There are concerns that mounting violence will lead to genocide, however it is important to note that the violence and repression thus far appear to be limited to political opponents rather than ethnic or religious groups.

The political crisis in Burundi is leading to a greater economic crisis in the country. The government has banned food exports to Rwanda in hopes of meeting greater demand in Burundi, and fuel shortages have hurt the production of coffee, Burundi’s largest revenue source. In addition, the violence and political unrest are deterring tourists from entering the country, further damaging the economy. These blows to the economy have significantly lowered the living standards for those within Burundi.

Central and West Africa

Central African Republic

Two days after Marcel Mombeka, the head of the armed forces in the Central African Republic (CAR), was killed in the capital of Bangui on October 4, eleven civilians were killed in the PK5 neighborhood, a predominantly Muslim area of the city that had been largely peaceful since a visit by Pope Francis last November. Exactly one week later, fighters from the Séléka rebel group killed thirty in Kaga-Bondoro, allegedly in response to the death of four Muslims in the town. A different attack against a camp for displaced people in Ngakobo resulted in the deaths of eleven more.

These clashes are emblematic of two main realities. First, there are a number of “lawless enclaves” in CAR where the government lacks control. In these areas, armed groups have readily exerted influence by extorting taxes from the terrified population. Second, the goals of demobilization and reconciliation championed by President Faustin-Archange Touadéra are going to be far more difficult to achieve than anyone had hoped. Violence in certain neighborhoods have made people reluctant to return to their homes; as a result, close to 400,000 people remain displaced. Worse, the recent violence is making it more difficult to convince certain groups to disarm and reintegrate into society. After the recent violence in Bangui, anti-Balaka groups talked for three hours about whether they would still participate in the disarmament process. Although they ultimately did not withdraw, they made it quite clear that they would respond with violence if the Séléka fighters did not cease their attacks. They also expressed that their desire to be integrated into the military and involved in policymaking. Given that the government has rejected both of these demands already, the prospect of peace remains uncertain.

Beyond the violence, there remains a serious humanitarian crisis in the country, which is at least in part due to attacks against humanitarian organizations throughout the country. CAR ranks the highest on the Global Hunger Index, with malnutrition and starvation widespread around the country. There has also been an outbreak of monkeypox, the magnitude of which public health organizations are still trying to determine. As long as violence continues, however, it will be difficult to resolve such crises.

Nigeria

On October 13, twenty-one of the nearly three hundred Nigerian schoolgirls captured from a Chibok school in northern Nigeria were freed by Boko Haram. With the help of the International Red Cross and the government of Switzerland, the government of Nigeria and Boko Haram were finally able to come to an agreement after numerous failed negotiations that have taken place over this past year. The girls were found to be in “reasonably good health,” but were sent to medical facilities for monitoring. Despite this good news, the vast majority of the kidnapped girls remain captives. Although similar negotiation tactics could be used to free the remaining girls, Yemi Osinbajo, the vice-president of Nigeria, suggested that such talks with the terrorist group could also potentially compromise the safety of the country overall. If the government does believe such a tradeoff exists, it remains to be seen if all the girls will be rescued.

Although the release of these girls is rightly viewed as a success for President Muhammadu Buhari, he has also faced severe criticism as of late. Although he pledged both to defeat Boko Haram and to reduce corruption in the government, he has accomplished neither objective so far. On October 19, the terrorist organization attacked a small military encampment in the northeastern part of the country, wounding thirteen soldiers. For months, Boko Haram focused exclusively on attacking soft targets designed to kill civilians. This most recent attack, which is one of three recent strikes against the Nigerian army, may indicate that the terrorist group is regaining strength, despite the efforts of Buhari. The president is also widely acknowledged to have failed with regard to his second goal. Although he recently put two of his reportedly ten presidential jets up for sale in an attempt to “cut waste,” many critics argue that these actions are not enough. BudgIT has claimed that more money is spent on the presidential fleet than on higher education. Worse, many Nigerian lawmakers make handsome salaries as the vast majority of civilian suffer from the economic recession. Discontent has grown so great that Aisha Buhari, the first lady of the country, has said that she may not back her husband in the next election. The political turmoil within the government will likely make it even more difficult to address the recession that is hitting the people of Nigeria hard.

Sudan

On Friday, October 21 the 5th Annual Symposium on Women and Genocide took place in Washington, DC, featuring a series of panels and testimonies from genocide survivors to bring together scholars, student activists, and educators to discuss ongoing issues of genocide and mass atrocities throughout the world. The conference focused primarily on ongoing violence against women and children in Darfur. According to the UN, at least 300,000 people have been killed and 2.5 million displaced in Darfur since the outbreak of the genocide in the early 2000s.

On October 25, Sudan president Omar al-Bashir accused Amnesty International of spreading rumors that Sudanese government forces had used chemical weapons to attack civilians in Darfur. Amnesty had previously issued a report that Sudanese forces had used more than 30 suspected chemical weapons in a mountainous area in Darfur, which killed up to 250 people, including a large number of children. Darfur has been wrapped up in a deadly conflict since 2003 when different ethnic groups took up arms against Bashir’s Arab-dominated government.

On September 27, the UN reported that the Sudanese government continues to broach sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council because of their violent actions in Darfur. A group of experts issued the report, which found violations of the arms embargo and the use of cluster bombs, which have historically caused incredible harm on civilians in places ranging from Vietnam in the 1960s to Yemen and Syria today. The report also included numerous human rights violations committed by the government. Human Rights Watch’s Deputy U.N. Director Akshaya Kumar has argued that the sanctions “now exist in name only.”

South Sudan

On October 25, Amnesty International issued another report on recent atrocities committed by South Sudan’s army. The new report describes the murder of a 6-year old girl and a journalist and the gang-rape of a 15-year-old girl as among the crimes committed by South Sudanese soldiers during the clashes with the opposition in the capital city of Juba, where hundreds of people were killed in July.

In recent days, Sudanese rebels were given an ultimatum to leave South Sudan within 30 days. The two countries signed a non-aggression pact which demands that the two nations take no military action against each other. In order to show its full and sincere commitment to respecting the deal, the South Sudanese government has given armed groups from Sudan fighting the Sudanese government the opportunity to leave at the end of November, a move that contradicted the government’s earlier claims that it did not host armed dissidents opposed to the Khartoum regime within its borders.

On October 24, Ellen Margrethe Løj, the head of the UN mission in South Sudan, said the road to peace in South Sudan would be challenging. The South Sudan peace deal has stood at the verge of complete collapse since fighting broke out in the capital Juba last July, forcing the country’s former first vice president Riek Machar to flee. Løj heads a 12,000-strong peacekeeping force to protect civilians, some 200,000 of whom are sheltered at 6 UN bases in various parts of South Sudan. The number continues to rise as violence in the country continues.

After nearly three years of devastating civil war, several South Sudanese artists have recently launched a public art project in Juba, which aims to incite discussion about peace. The works of art, painted on walls, shipping containers, bakeries, schools, and cultural centers across Juba, often seek to emphasize the suffering of children and the self-destructive nature of the conflict to encourage work towards reconciliation.

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Justin Cole is STAND’s Central and West Africa Coordinator. He is a Junior at UNC Chapel Hill where he majors in Economics and Peace, War, and Defense.

Joanna Liang is STAND’s Sudan and South Sudan Coordinator. She is a Junior at the University of Delaware where she majors in History Education.

Elizabeth Westbrook is STAND’s Great Lakes Coordinator. She is a Junior at UNC Chapel Hill where she is a Political Science major.

This week’s news brief focuses on the Central African Republic (CAR), Nigeria, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Burundi. In Nigeria, violence is on the rise by both Boko Haram and the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA). In South Sudan, the UN is threatening an arms embargo if a peacekeeping force is not allowed by the government. Those opposed to a third term for President Kabila DRC are preparing for a fresh wave of protests, as he is constitutionally mandated to step down in December.

Central and West Africa

Central African Republic

On September 23, Faustin-Archange Touadéra, the president of the Central African Republic (CAR), spoke optimistically about the status of his country at the annual general debate of the United Nations General Assembly. Praising the United Nations, Touadera stated that he was proud of the progress that had already been made in establishing peace and stability in the country. Yet his speech also remained somber as the president acknowledged challenges still facing the state. Just five days before this speech, rebels killed dozens of citizens in the small village of Ndomete in one of the worst episodes of violence in the past few months. In response, the peacekeeping mission in the country elected to bolster its position in the area surrounding the site of the massacre. The lack of security in the country was also on display in the capital of Bangui on October 4. Three men grazing their flocks were killed, and Marcel Mombeka, the head of the armed forces in CAR, was assassinated. The combination of these two incidents has prompted some concern among those who fear that the country could spiral back into violence.

In the midst of this fragile peace, CAR also is attempting to rebuild the country, which has a long history of human rights abuses and mass atrocities, most recently in the wake of the 2012 coup d-état. On November 17, the CAR Donors and Investors Conference will take place in Brussels and will focus on rebuilding the capacity of the government so that it will be able to provide public goods such as security and social welfare programs. Unfortunately, there has been some criticism that such a conference will not do enough to involve local communities, which have grown increasingly capable of solving their own problems in the absence of a functional national government. As such, the national government must use pledged funds not as a temporary solution to immediate problems, but as a foundation to permanently rebuild the country.

Nigeria

On September 25, Boko Haram launched two different assaults against military positions in northeastern Nigeria. The first attack killed four soldiers in Logomani, and the second killed three soldiers and an officer near Bama. Both positions are under seventy miles from Maiduguri, the capital city of Borno state, where Boko Haram has been the most active.

Nigeria is also dealing with a second insurgency led by a group known as the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) who have been attacking oil and gas pipelines in an attempt to expel multinational oil companies from the country and obtain a more equitable distribution of revenue from such commodities. On September 23, the group, which had briefly halted its assaults, launched an attack against the Bonny crude export line. Just under a week later, they struck again against the Unenurhie-Evwreni delivery line. In response to these attacks, the National Association of Nigerian Students has attempted to reach out to the militants in this region and has urged them to end the violence, arguing that it only contributes to environmental degradation and economic setback. The Nigerian military has opened up a negotiation process with the militants, but also warned the group that it will strike back hard against those who do not participate.

The aggressiveness of Boko Haram and the Niger Delta Avengers combined with the steep decline in oil prices have had a severe impact on the economy of Nigeria, which depends almost exclusively on oil. On October 4, European Union official Fillippo Amato advised Nigeria to devalue the Naira in an attempt to mitigate the effects of the economic recession. The purpose of such a move would be to attract foreign investors who have understandably been wary to put their capital into a country still plagued by outbreaks of violence. This policy combined with more aid from the European Union should help alleviate the presently bleak humanitarian situation in Nigeria.

South Sudan

In September, The UN Security Council went on a three-day trip to South Sudan. Despite recently celebrating its fifth birthday, there was little appetite for celebration as violence continues to endanger the country’s prosperity. The most recent conflict included intense fighting between President Salva Kiir’s army and former Vice President Riek Machar’s troops, a reignition of the civil war after several months of calm. The conflict left at least 300 dead in July.  

The civil war in South Sudan sparked from the political conflict between President Kiir and former Vice President Machar. Even though they signed a peace deal a year ago, conflict has continued and Machar fled the country in July. According to a report by the Paris-based Sudan Tribune, Foreign Minister of South Sudan Ibrahim Ghandour said his government would not allow the armed opposition to attack South Sudan from its territory.

The country has endured a devastating civil war for 3 years now. The concerns over female safety in South Sudan continue to rise. In collaboration with International Women’s Media Foundation, Al Jazeera published an article on girls education in South Sudan. The article’s interviews with several South Sudanese girls make clear that girls in the war-torn country are extremely vulnerable. Many have been forced into early marriage and remain at risk of sexual abuse. However, the article also noted that girls in South Sudan are taking a stand to seek an education while fighting for their futures in one of the world’s most unstable countries.

On September 27, the Wall Street Journal published a news article on South Sudan’s peacekeeping force, which indicated that South Sudan’s government has repeatedly blocked the UN peacekeeping mission. The Associated Press acquired the initial UN report, which showed an ultimatum dealt by the UN to South Sudan: it must accept the deployment of a 4,000-strong regional protection force from the UN, or face a possible arms embargo. The UN chief listed 22 incidents in which South Sudanese security forces denied access for the U.N peacekeepers to operate their mission and made threats to their safety. Also on September 27, rebel forces in South Sudan said government troops launched attacks in the north. The troops threatened immediate retaliation. The threat has raised fears of further escalation of the civil war.

Great Lakes Region of Africa

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

The electoral commission in the DRC declared on Saturday, October 1 that polls would be delayed until December 2018. President Kabila has claimed that as many as 10 million unregistered voters would be disenfranchised if the election were to take place in the coming months and intends to remain in power until elections can be held.

Opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi has warned that protests will be organized again on October 19, two months before the end of President Kabila’s mandate, which is December 19. Tshisekedi claimed that the protests on September 19, in which over fifty people died, were a warning to Kabila, and that the October protests will be a “yellow card” that will ultimately lead to a “red card” if Kabila does not step down in December. Le Rassemblement, a group of opposition parties, has declared that they would interpret Kabila staying in office longer than his two terms as high treason. They have also denounced attempted peace talks as a “pseudo dialogue” and an attempt by the president to legitimize his strategy.

The opposition protests have drawn the attention of the international community, leading the United States to declare sanctions against Major General Amisi Kumba and former Senior Police Official John Numbi. The US Treasury said in a report that the sanctions have been raised in response to “increasing indications that the Government of the Democratic Republic of Congo continues to suppress political opposition in the country, often through violent means.” France also raised the issue of European Union sanctions on Tuesday, October 4, claiming that Kabila has no right to stand for re-election, and should step down.

Meanwhile the government in the DRC has claimed they will not allow South Sudanese rebels to stay any longer. The 750 armed opposition soldiers were in “extremely bad shape” and were staying in the Eastern Congo. The government has asked the United Nations Peacekeeping Mission (MONUSCO) to remove the group as they are considered a security threat.

Burundi

The United Nations presented an independent investigation on Burundi on Tuesday, September 27 that accused the government of Burundi of human rights abuses. The report includes the verification of 564 summary executions since Nkurunziza’s announcement that he would pursue a third term in office. The report has also confirmed evidence of rapes, disappearances, and mass arrests. The UN investigation specifically states that “widespread and systemic […]  patterns of violations clearly suggest that they are deliberate and the result of conscious decisions, it is in the government’s power to stop them.”

Protests have been held in Bujumbura, the capital of Burundi, aiming to modify the UN investigative report. The government and protestors claim that the report is biased and based in rumors and gossip. However, in response to the report, the UN Human Rights Council adopted a resolution to create a commission to identify perpetrators of killings and violence. The violence remains political in nature, though there are concerns that the violence could become ethnically motivated as the top levels of government are using “unpleasant ethnic rhetoric” in an attempt to sway core Hutu supporters. The resolution and the investigation have both made reference to the possibility of invoking Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations, which allows the UN to intervene using military and nonmilitary measures in order to restore peace and security. The UN has also pledged to work more closely with the East African Community to promote peace in Burundi.

Journalist Jean Bigirimana remains missing after being reported to have been arrested by security forces outside of the capital in July. Amnesty International is engaging activists with an online action urging an investigation into his case, and structural changes to protect journalists in the country.

In addition, Burundi is now facing a potential cholera epidemic and lack of clean drinking water in Mugoboka, a neighborhood in the Burundian capital. Over 9,000 people use the same source for drinking water, and although the chief of the Ruhero zone where Mogoboka is located denies any deaths caused by the cholera, he does acknowledge that the water shortage is a problem. The government is responding by trying to build a new public tap.

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Justin Cole is STAND’s Central and West Africa Coordinator. He is a Junior at UNC Chapel Hill where he majors in Economics and Peace, War, and Defense.

Joanna Liang is STAND’s Sudan and South Sudan Coordinator. She is a Junior at the University of Delaware where she majors in History Education.

Elizabeth Westbrook is STAND’s Great Lakes Coordinator. She is a Junior at UNC Chapel Hill where she is a Political Science major.

Burma has been hit by a monsoon and massive flooding. More than 150,000 people have been affected and 27 people have been confirmed dead, although the actual figure is probably significantly higher. Humanitarian aid delivery has faced a number of hurdles, as many victims are in isolated regions and continued rains make it difficult to travel. President Thein Sein and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi have both visited badly-affected regions. The government is particularly motivated to respond quickly since the military government in 2008 faced heavy criticism for its slow response to Cyclone Nargis, in which 140,000 people died. However, as the storm headed towards Rakhine state, it is reported that Buddhists were evacuated while Rohingya were not, and Rohingya are yet to receive assistance.

Close to 7,000 prisoners were given presidential pardons and released on July 30th. The group included journalists, Chinese loggers, and members of the former military government. However, an estimated 158 political prisoners remain imprisoned.

Speaker of the Union Parliament and leader of the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) Shwe Mann has said that he is confident that his party will win. He also said that the USDP will behave fairly in the election. The government’s attempts to seek a ceasefire with ethnic rebels have not gone so well, however. The most recent round of peace negotiations in Rangoon ended this week, having made little progress. The United Nationalities Federal Council, the major coalition of ethnic leaders, has called on the government to stop offensives against ethnic armed groups and do more to come to an agreement.

Central African Republic (CAR)

Although levels of violence are significantly below their peak, violence continues in CAR. In Markounda, a northwestern town 330 miles north of Bangui, ex-Seleka rebels and militants in a group called Revolution-Justice clashed and at least 26 people were killed. Fighting in Bangui also turned deadly, this time when UN peacekeepers attempted to carry out an arrest warrant. Rebel forces opened fire, killing one peacekeeper and injuring eight.

Amnesty International has released a new report on Muslims in western CAR. The report finds that Muslims often have to hide their religion or are forced to convert to Christianity with death threatened as the alternative. The UN has also pointed to the humanitarian crisis in CAR.  The international community has only funded 31% of CAR’s declared need for humanitarian aid, and the UN has warned that Central African civilians will face massive suffering unless this figure is increased.

Preparations for this fall’s elections have begun, with many individuals declaring their candidacies. So far, 30 people have announced their intention to run for President.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Gubernatorial elections for the DRC’s new provinces have been pushed to October 6th from their originally scheduled date of August 31st. Preparations for national elections are also in progress. The National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) has been examining voter rolls, but they have warned of anomalies on the lists, including duplicate voters and already-registered voters lacking sufficient information. The Catholic Church has said that it supports the political dialogue planned to precede the election. However, it has said that this dialogue should not interfere with the election schedule and reiterated its opposition to constitutional changes to allow President Kabila a third term.  Many Congolese are Catholic and the Church’s voice is very influential in Congolese society.

6,400 citizens have fled their homes in Lubero, North Kivu, in response to FDLR violence. UNOCHA said that most have been able to find refuge in neighboring areas.

Jean-Bertrand Ewanga, secretary-general of the opposition party Union for the Congolese Nation (UNC), has been released from Kinshasa’s Makala prison after almost a year. He was arrested for insulting the President last year during a protest opposing Kabila’s proposed third term, and the UNC and many other members of the opposition denounced the charges as politically motivated.

South Sudan

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD) most recent peace proposal, which was released in late June, has not been well received by the South Sudanese government. President Salva Kiir said July 30th that he would not sign the agreement. Army Chief of Staff General Paul Malong Awan, who recently gave orders in Western Equatoria state to shoot anyone resisting the military’s commands, also expressed his displeasure with the IGAD proposal. President Kiir said it was unlikely they would soon come to an agreement, although the South Sudanese government is going to release its own peace plan for the conflict once peace talks reconvene in Addis Ababa. This plan will not allow former Vice-President Riek Machar to share the presidency with Kiir, one of the main reasons for their opposition to the IGAD plan. US Special Envoy to Sudan and South Sudan Donald Booth said patience is running out with the warring parties and urged them to quickly stop the war.

A joint report by World Vision, Save the Children, Intersos, and CARE found that 400,000 displaced children, half of all displaced South Sudanese children, are not in school. Humanitarian aid is also struggling, and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has blamed restrictions from the South Sudanese government for delays in delivery.

The South Sudanese government has said it will push to strengthen its relationship with Sudan. The countries have had many disputes since South Sudan’s secession in 2011.

Sudan

Amnesty International has released a report accusing Sudan of war crimes in South Kordofan. The report finds that Sudan launched hundreds of shells and bombs, including cluster bombs, against civilians between January and April, killing at least 35 people.

President Omar al-Bashir will lead a meeting that will include opposition parties to discuss the national dialogue. Sudan’s Vice-President said that the government will meet the demands that are required to ensure the participation of opposition parties. President Bashir also said that his government is committed to finding a negotiated solution to the conflict in South Kordofan and the Blue Nile. The African Union’s chief negotiator, former South African president Thabo Mbeki, is travelling to Khartoum this week to discuss peace negotiations and the national dialogue.  Meanwhile, Minni Minnawi, leader of a faction of the Darfuri rebel group the Sudan Liberation Movement, has called on the US to do more to protect Darfur.

President Bashir is reportedly planning on travelling to New York to speak at the UN in September. He is indicted by the ICC for war crimes and genocide, and his attempt to speak at the UN in 2013 was unsuccessful.

Syria

Soldiers trained in the US Train and Equip Program have finally taken to the battlefield. Fifty-four soldiers entered the fighting. Recent reports have said that they were quickly defeated and some were killed or captured by Jabhat al-Nusra, which the Department of Defense denies. While the forces are intended to fight ISIS, President Obama has authorized the use of airpower to support the troops if they are attacked by other rebels or the Assad regime. However, the monitoring group Airwars has found that US airstrikes against ISIS have killed at least 459 civilians over the last year. The US has only acknowledged two civilian deaths.

Syrian regime forces backed by Hezbollah have launched a counteroffensive against rebels in Hama province. The rebels, led by Jabhat al-Nusra, were pushing towards coastal Latakia province, a stronghold of the Assad regime. More than 100 fighters have been killed.

UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura has invited parties to the conflict to participate in dialogues intended to produce a peace framework for the conflict. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has said he is prepared to convene a major conference to support the framework if parties are able to come to an agreement.

Emerging Conflicts: Nigeria

After a recent resurgence in violence from Boko Haram, there have been some successes against the militant group. Most notably, the Nigerian military reported that it rescued 178 people held captive by Boko Haram, 101 of which were children.  It is unclear whether any of the captives were captured in the Chibok attack that sparked the Bring Back Our Girls campaign. The Nigerian military also reported it had killed 20 Boko Haram soldiers in Dikwa, while the Chadian military said it killed 117 Boko Haram fighters near Lake Chad. Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari recently fired a number of generals, but he has appointed a new general to head a multinational force combatting Boko Haram.

However, Boko Haram’s attacks are far from over. Just days after the captives were rescued, Boko Haram killed eight and kidnapped an estimated 100 people in Cameroon. It has continued to perpetrate many attacks, often through suicide bombings. It also conducted a raid in Adamawa state on July 24th, killing 25 people.  In total, Boko Haram killed at least 178 civilians between July 18th and July 31st.

Boko Haram’s violence seemed nearly unstoppable early this year, with a weak Nigerian military incapable of slowing their attacks.  Yet in five weeks Nigeria made more progress than they had in years, reclaiming 17 of 20 local government areas that had been controlled by Boko Haram with the help of Chad, Niger, and controversial South African mercenaries.  The election of Muhammadu Buhari, an experienced general whose campaign focused on defeating Boko Haram, also offered promise after years of government neglect of the threat posed by Boko Haram. Boko Haram’s violence decreased each month from January to May, and there were signs that differing views towards ISIS may have been causing a split in the organization.

However, it has not all been smooth sailing for Buhari, especially since Boko Haram’s increase in violence.  He came into office with a nearly bankrupt country and the low price of oil causing a huge hit to the government treasury.  The budget shortfall left the government struggling to pay salaries of civil servants and the military.  Further evidence also emerged that the Nigerian military had committed extensive human rights abuses against civilians in their fight against Boko Haram.  Buhari did take a positive step by moving the military’s command center to Maiduguri, close to Boko Haram’s insurgency.  The U.S. has also agreed to increase military aid to Nigeria, having withheld aid in the past due to the Nigerian army’s history of human rights abuses.  Yet Buhari’s administration remains extremely empty, as he has struggled to fill cabinet positions and recently fired the heads of the army, navy, and air force.  Whether Buhari’s government will be able to fight Boko Haram in these circumstances remains to be seen.  Even if the government has a strong and coordinated response, it will take many years to address the marginalization of Nigeria’s northeast that gives rise to Boko Haram.

Throughout the decline in Boko Haram violence this year, it was unclear whether Boko Haram was struggling to survive or laying low while preparing for renewed attacks.  While there may be some truth to the former, Boko Haram’s recent attacks suggest the latter.  Boko Haram has launched suicide bombings and attacks by gunmen often multiple times a day.  They have also expanded the range of their attacks, attacking not only their normal targets in the northeast, but also Kano, Jos, and even the Chadian capital N’Djamena.  However, while these attacks still are extremely deadly, they do not necessarily mean Boko Haram is returning to its past strength.  Boko Haram’s recent resurgence has focused almost entirely on terrorist attacks rather than re-gaining territory. The geographical expansion of their attacks, too, may suggest that Boko Haram is focusing on spreading terror in recognition that it is not strong enough to win in traditional battles.

While Boko Haram has generally targeted areas around Maiduguri, recently they have attacked Kano, Jos, and Chad’s capital.

Relative to their violence earlier this year, Boko Haram’s recent resurgence remains small.  Yet reports still emerge of Boko Haram attacks killing three, eleven, twenty-five, or forty with such regularity that the shocking becomes mundane.  The lowest monthly violent death toll of 2015, May’s 767, is still more than almost any conflict in the world.  Although the situation is brighter than it has been in the past, it is still very, very bleak.

Tim Hirschel-Burns is a rising junior at Swarthmore College. You can follow him on Twitter @TimH_B

In my role as Emerging Conflicts Coordinator, my focus is to find countries at risk of mass atrocities. All too often, this risk becomes a reality. While Nigeria’s position is still far from ideal, recent events have been a welcome point of optimism. Nigeria is now much closer to stopping a mass atrocity than it was just a few months ago. To explain how Nigeria got to this moment, I will rewind the clock to the beginning of 2015.

Boko Haram terrorizes northern Nigeria

The radical Islamist group Boko Haram has caused chaos in northern Nigeria for years. It enforces a strict interpretation of Islamic law on the areas it controls and has little hesitation to use brutal force on anyone considered an opponent to their goals. The Nigerian government, on the other hand, is based in the primarily Christian south, while the north is largely Muslim, poor, and has largely been neglected by the government. In its early years, Boko Haram gained some traction by feeding on common grievances in the north. However, despite common discontent with the Nigerian government, Boko Haram’s extensive violence against civilians has also ruined almost all possible political support it could have acquired there. Further, Boko Haram sees itself not as a resistance movement representing northern Nigeria but as part of a struggle for global jihad.

Over the course of 2014, Boko Haram gained unprecedented strength. April marked the infamous kidnapping of 276 girls from a school in Chibok, the subject of the “Bring Back Our Girls” campaign. In the wake of the kidnapping, many said the Nigerian government took far too long to respond to the kidnapping, as it has to most Boko Haram attacks. The government further angered Nigerians when it announced it had successfully negotiated the release of the girls, only to backtrack when it became clear no such deal had been made. Ultimately, while some girls managed to escape, 219 were never returned. Boko Haram made further progress as it captured a number of towns in Borno state, bombed locations across Nigeria, and even began launching frequent attacks into Cameroon. By the end of 2014, Boko Haram had killed over 6,000 civilians. Nigeria’s army was poorly organized, underpaid, and under-equipped, and suffered frequent defeats to Boko Haram forces. It has also committed extensive human rights abuses against Nigerian civilians.

The situation at the start of 2015 already looked bad, but on January 3, things took a turn for the worse when Boko Haram seized a military base and attacked the nearby town of Baga. Death tolls were initially placed upwards of 2,000 people. The Nigerian government claimed only 150 people were killed, while it was likely somewhere between 500 and 1,000 people. Ongoing conflict makes it extremely difficult to get accurate information out of northeastern Nigeria, although there was undoubtedly extensive destruction to Baga.

Election Delayed

Nigeria’s presidential election was originally scheduled for February 14. The election placed the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan, against former military dictator Muhammadu Buhari, who lost the previous election. Jonathan, a southern Christian, took massive hits to his popularity as a result of corruption scandals, the falling price of oil, and his failure to deal with Boko Haram. Many even speculated that he saw the success of Boko Haram as an electoral opportunity, as Boko Haram’s advance made it more difficult to vote in overwhelmingly Buhari-supporting parts of the North.  Buhari’s chances suffered from his past as a military dictator–although he now claims to be a reformed democrat–and the fact that Nigeria had never had a challenger defeat an incumbent president in a democratic election. Buhari did, however, have stronger credentials to fight Boko Haram and benefited from Jonathan’s large unpopularity.

On February 8, the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) announced that the election would be delayed until March 28th, citing disruption caused by Boko Haram and difficulties in registering voters. However, it was not clear that the situation with Boko Haram would improve in six weeks, and some speculated that the move was designed to give Jonathan time to gain popularity.

Boko Haram Beat Back

At the beginning of February, Nigeria’s neighbors Chad, Cameroon, and Niger began sending in troops to combat Boko Haram. They were motivated in large part by a fear of Boko Haram’s insurgency spreading and a lack of confidence in Nigeria’s ability to defeat them. While the details of the operation are not entirely clear, Nigeria also began hiring mercenaries to combat Boko Haram. The mercenaries may have even taken a leading role in combat operations, although the Nigerian government states that they were only acting as advisors. These new operations made major progress against Boko Haram, recapturing 17 of 20 local government areas that had been controlled by the militant group.

Elections Take Place

On March 28, elections finally began. Polls placed the candidates neck-and-neck going into the election. The head of INEC, Professor Attahiru Jega, had led extensive preparations to ensure a fair election. For the most part, voting went smoothly, and even internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Borno state were able to vote. However, in certain locations voting was pushed back to March 29, and there were some claims of attempts to falsify vote counts. Boko Haram, which had made clear its staunch opposition to elections, killed 41 people in an attack aimed at disrupting the election.

Votes were counted over the course of a few days, and on March 31 Buhari claimed victory. There were many fears of post-election conflict similar to that following the 2011 elections, when approximately 800 people were killed. However, Jonathan quickly conceded the election to Buhari and urged his supporters not to respond with violence. Buhari ultimately won with 15.4 million votes to Jonathan’s 13.3 million. Buhari gained support well beyond the north, with many former Jonathan strongholds swinging to Buhari or suffering from low voter turnout.

Cautious Optimism

Compared to what could have happened, and what many expected, recent events have been very successful for Nigeria. After years of military defeats to Boko Haram, Nigeria achieved huge victories over the course of just six weeks. The strength of Nigeria’s democracy far exceeded expectations, leading to a calm, organized election and a peaceful turnover of power.

Still, many potential potential pitfalls remain. Buhari’s presidency is far from a sure success, and it remains to be seen whether democratic norms will be respected. Additionally, though Boko Haram was defeated in several locations, there are few indications that Nigeria’s military has improved, and it is undetermined whether or not human rights abuses were committed by Nigeria’s allies in their efforts to defeat Boko Haram. Even after recent defeats, Boko Haram’s violence against civilians remains one of the world’s gravest mass atrocities. However, recent events provide long-awaited good news for Nigeria. If they can serve as a stepping stone for further progress, the horrors Nigerians have suffered may finally be nearing their end.

Timmy Hirschel-Burns is a sophomore at Swarthmore College and STAND’s Emerging Conflicts Coordinator.  Follow him on Twitter at @TimH_B

Burma

US President Barack Obama made his second official visit to Burma last week to attend the 25th annual Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) regional summit help for the first time in Burma’s capital, Naypyidaw. There, Obama praised Burma’s President Thein Sein’s “real” efforts to democratize the country. However, many people, including opposition leader and Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, have expressed concern over the United States’ positive perception of very limited reforms in the former military dictatorship. According to the White House, the United States has provided over $375 million to Burma since relieving economic sanctions in 2012 in targeting five key areas: national reconciliation, democratic institutions, economic development, health, resilient communities, and regional cooperation.

While in the country, both Obama and UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon criticized the Burmese government’s treatment of the Rohingya. The Burmese government refuses to acknowledge the existence of the Rohingya and instead refers to them as illegal Bengali migrants. Moreover, the Burmese government has also proposed sending Rohingya to detention camps if they refuse to officially identify themselves as Bengali. To read more about the Rohingya and the significance of official US and UN recognition, click here.

Finally, Burma and China signed a bilateral trade agreement on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit which aimed to increase rice exports from northeastern Burma to southwestern China.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

The links between the conflict-minerals trade and profits for militia groups in eastern DRC are well-documented. However, in the face of reduced profits due in part to conflict-free mineral certification mechanisms, rebel militias in the Congo are increasingly turning to wildlife trafficking as a source of revenue. The Okapi Forest Reserve reports a 40% reduction in its elephant population from 2009-2014. In late October, the UN released an urgent appeal for resources to combat elephant poaching by militia groups in Garamba national park. During the past 3 years, rebel militias murdered 30 park rangers in Virunga national park alone. Rebel militias also reportedly attempt to undercut the local eco-tourism industry by offering wildlife tours at reduced rates, using revenue to continue the purchase of weapons.

In late October, military leaders ousted Blaise Compaoré, President of Burkina Faso, from power. Coming after several years of democratic upheaval in many parts of North Africa and the Middle East, the coup raises questions about the durability of autocratic rule in sub-Saharan Africa. In an interview with Voice of America, Congolese information minister Lambert Mende rejects the idea that Congolese President Joseph Kabila will be subject to the same fate if he chooses to run for a third term in 2016. Mende said, “Nobody has heard President Kabila saying that he’s going to change the constitution. As a democratic country, we are having an intellectual and political debate about the changing or not changing the constitution…Burkina is Burkina and Congo is Congo.”

Members of the Congolese police force (PNC) arrested twenty protesters on 1 November. The protesters took to the streets outside the UN headquarters in Kinshasa to demand a national dialogue aimed at ending two decades of violence in eastern Congo. Activists also expressed frustration at the prospect of a proposed amendment to the Congolese constitution that would permit President Kabila to run for a third term. All detainees have since been released.

In the wake of a series of Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) attacks on civilian communities in the city of Beni, located in the Congo’s eastern North Kivu province, the UN Stabilization Mission in the DR Congo (MONUSCO) announced last week that the mission had arrested 200 individuals suspected of participation in the assaults. The mission also reported seizures of bombs, radios, weapons, and other military equipment from the ADF. Between 2 October and 17 October, ADF forces murdered nearly 120 civilians in North Kivu. Congolese Defense Minister Alexandre Luba Ntambo spoke to civilians in the province on 5 November, urging community members not to form self-defense militias against the ADF. Ntambo said that reactionary defense militias would only “further complicate the already fragile situation” in Beni.

Two teams of Congolese military (FARDC) personnel received a 10-day training from the UN on detecting and disposing of arms caches. FARDC plans to launch an operation entitled “Weapons Free Masisi” this month to collect weapons from illegal armed groups operating in Masisi territory, including the M-23, Alliance of Patriots of Free and Sovereign Congo (APCLS) and local Mayi-Mayi militia groups.

Sudan

After much delay, peace talks between government forces and rebel groups have resumed in Sudan. The chief of the African Union stated that he was hopeful that negotiations would be finalized between rebels and the government very soon. Fighting has broken out many times in the southern part of the country near the South Sudanese border. Negotiations on the issues in Darfur have been scheduled for later this month. The conflicts in the southern part of the country have already displaced tens of thousands of Sudanese.

Reports emerged on Wednesday of a Sudanese attack on South Sudan’s Upper Nile State. The strike follows a similar one two weeks earlier in which at least 35 people were killed. The newest raid killed seven and displaced many more. The South Sudanese army believes that the Sudanese government is behind the latest attack because they used warplanes, which the South Sudanese rebels do not have access to.

Finally, 1.2 million Sudanese have been registered to vote for Sudan’s 2015 elections. Sudan’s National Election Commission (NEC) has reported that 1.2 million new voters have been registered for the 2015 Sudanese election cycle. However, opposition parties are refusing to participate in the elections, calling instead for a transitional government and a national conference to resolve the long-standing conflicts in the South Kordofan and Darfur regions. The NEC, however, has rejected any postponement of the electoral process, claiming that delaying elections would cause a “constitutional vacuum”.

South Sudan

Last week in South Sudan, several polio cases were confirmed by the World Health Organization. The WHO stated that these cases are most likely because of the lack of vaccination programs in South Sudan. The organization stated that it is difficult to maintain high rates of vaccinations in conflict zones, and that it is extremely dangerous to have a few cases because they can spread very quickly.

Additionally, there have been reports that the conflict has now hit three different states in South Sudan. Both the rebels and the government have blamed each other for the continued fighting as it continues to spread to more and more regions. As the fighting escalates, the amount of killed and displaced Sudanese continues to rise.

The Guardian reports that the upcoming generation of South Sudanese boys are eager to fight in the civil war. Many young men have expressed their hope that they would soon be old enough to fight alongside the rebels or the government.

Syria

The Free Syrian Army (FSA) has rejected the possibility of a UN-mandated Aleppo truce with the Assad regime. According to Al Jazeera, the FSA’s rejection of the plan to suspend fighting in Syria’s second largest city, and its most populous prior to the civil war, stems from concerns that such a plan will only help the Assad regime. Zaher al-Saket, FSA military commander in Aleppo, explained their logic: “We [the Free Syrian Army] learned not to trust the Assad regime because they are cunning and only want to buy time. We saw what happened in Homs and we will never accept the same scenario in Aleppo.” The Syrian government had allegedly responded differently towards overtures regarding an Aleppo truce, with Staffan de Mistura, UN special envoy to Syria, saying on Tuesday the government had responded with “constructive interest” to the UN proposal. However, activists claimed that Assad’s forces resumed launching barrel bombs on Aleppo’s al-Marjeh neighbourhood just a day later.

Syrian authorities have reportedly detained Louday Hussein, leader of Building the Syrian State party and longtime opposition activist, who has been detained twice before, and this time faces a number of what his party calls a number of “ready made charges”, including “weakening national sentiment and weakening the morale of the nation.” The Syrian Network for Human Rights estimates that up to 85,000 people are currently being held by the Syrian regime without any just cause. In captivity, prisoners face numerous human rights abuses, including torture and the continual threat of death. The Assad regime’s use of arbitrary and inhumane imprisonment tactics is well noted, and a UN panel last year accused the Assad regime of committing a crime against humanity by making people “systematically vanish.”

Emerging Conflicts: Nigeria

Violence has continued to wrack Nigeria, with radical Islamist group Boko Haram the main instigator. On 10 November, a suicide attack outside a school killed at least 48 people and wounded at least 79. Students were gathered for an assembly at a government boarding school in Potiskum when an attacker, disguised as a student, launched a suicide bombing. How many of the dead were students has not yet been determined. Although Boko Haram is widely suspected, they have not claimed responsibility for the attack. This follows an attack on 3 November in Potiskum when a suicide bomber blew himself up in a crowd of Shi’ite Muslims at a religious ceremony. The bombing killed 15 people and afterwards Nigerian soldiers killed six people in their response to the attack.

On 12 November, a female suicide bomber blew herself up at a college in Kontagora. At least three people were killed. Although Kontagora is far from the northeastern part of the country where Boko Haram usually operates, it is still suspected to be the perpetrator.

The government has suffered a number of embarrassing defeats in its fight against Boko Haram.  It announced a ceasefire with Boko Haram on 17 October. This would have ended fighting and led to the release of over 200 girls kidnapped earlier this year. However, there were a number of Boko Haram attacks in the days following the announcement. Nigerian officials continued to maintain that there was a ceasefire, but two weeks after the announcement of the ceasefire Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau announced that there had been no ceasefire and the girls would not be released. Then, on 14 November, Boko Haram took control of the town of Chibok, where they kidnapped the girls in April. The US has, however, refused to sell arms to the Nigerian military because of its history of human rights abuses.  Still, there was some good news for the military as they re-took the town of Mubi from Boko Haram.

Syria

In an address to the American public on Wednesday evening, President Obama outlined his intentions to launch airstrikes on Syria, broadening his campaign to eliminate the Islamic State (IS). Declaring that the United States would “degrade and destroy” the Islamist organization, the President for the first time committed to strikes to halt the group in Syria. The President’s decision comes after three years of shying away from any attack on Syria, reluctant to embroil America in what could be perceived as another fruitless overseas conflict.

Obama will now face the challenges of organizing regional partners like Turkey and Saudi Arabia in the fight against IS, trying to bring about the destruction of IS while at the same time not aiding the brutal and dictatorial Assad regime, and training and arming Syrian moderate factions that will be able to stand against both IS and the Assad regime. Some analysts have stated that previous American reluctance to engage in the conflict, particularly after the chemical weapons attacks last year that the American government believes to have been perpetrated by the Assad regime, has caused skepticism over American objectives in the conflict.

Some – including former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton – have accused Obama of doing too little too late. Indeed, in an August interview with The Atlantic, Clinton was quoted as saying, “The failure to help build up a credible fighting force of the people who were the originators of the protests against Assad… left a big vacuum, which the jihadists have now filled.”

While many in Congress have been critical of the President’s plan, Republican House leaders have largely argued in favor of supporting President Obama’s call for military action in Syria. House and Senate hearings are scheduled for early this week, with a vote on military action to follow after. The date for any such vote has not yet been set. The White House, however, has argued that it does not need Congressional approval to begin any such strikes. The Obama administration has stated that attacks against the Islamic State are covered under the existing authority for military action against the perpetrators of the September 11 attacks, al-Qaeda. While the Islamic State has officially parted ways with Al-Qaeda, White House officials argue that they are still covered under the language of the A.U.M.F., the 2001 authorization of military force against al-Qaeda and its affiliates.

Inside Syria, a blast on Tuesday killed the leader and several other top figures of Ahrar al-Sham. Ahrar al-Sham is among the most powerful extremist insurgent groups in Syria. The Syrian government announced Tuesday that it has canceled a deal to sell 200,000 tonnes of wheat to Iraq due to the Islamic State’s rapid advance since June in the areas straddling the Iraqi-Syrian border.

Sudan

**Trigger Warning: Sexual Assault**

The umbrella of opposition groups in Sudan, the National Consensus Forces (NCF)announced Thursday that it only accepts dialogue with the government that will lead to genuine change. The umbrella group emphasized that previous agreements have failed to repeal laws restricting freedoms or set forth a plan to dismantle the one-party rule of the National Congress Party (NCP). Opposition groups also called for President Omar al-Bashir of the NCP to release all political prisoners. Meanwhile, the head of the African Union High Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) announced that talks have been finalized between the government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement – North (SPLM-North), and between the government and Darfur rebel groups. The former talks are scheduled for 12 October and the latter for 15 October. While the armed opposition alliance of the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) insists on negotiating a comprehensive humanitarian ceasefire for Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile states, the government insists on using the Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD) to negotiate separately with holdout rebel groups.

South Sudan has criticized the Sudanese government for including the oil-producing Abyei region in its plans for 2015 elections, saying that the decision contravenes the status of the disputed region. South Sudan also requested that the East African regional bloc, IGAD,intervene to help it resolve its disputes with Khartoum.

The International Criminal Court announced Thursday that it has changed a Darfur rebel figure’s court summons to an arrest warrant, stating that the suspect may not arrive voluntarily for his trial scheduled for next November. Meanwhile, reports emerged earlier this week that Janjaweed militiamen have shot 5 people and kidnapped 2 in Darfur. On Thursday, a spokesman for the rebel group Liberation Movement for Justice (LMJ) announced that his forces attacked and killed 17 government troops in North Darfur in coordination with forces from the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM).

The spokesman for the Darfur Displaced and Refugees Association has called on the international community to enter the camps and investigate the various diseases spreading throughout the camps. The spokesman for the North Darfur camps also called on the international community to international community to act to aid the displaced with their hunger needs as well as health care, and to protect Darfur’s displaced from the Janjaweed and Rapid Support Militia, whom he called “the cause of the instability in the insecurity in Darfur.” The Secretary for Women’s Issues of North Darfur’s Kabkabiya camps also called for the UN and the international community to protect the women of the camps from rape, noting that eight women from the camps in the past four months have been attacked and raped. Meanwhile, a hospital in Central Darfur was forced to close down on Monday as employees have not received payments in six months. In West Darfur, reports have emerged that the health situation of Murnei Camp has rapidly deteriorated over the past two months. A lack of food rations, health care, and medicines has caused the death toll in the camps to rise significantly.

South Sudan

Mixed reports surfaced over the deployment of Chinese peacekeepers in South Sudan last week. The Wall Street Journal reported the deployment of 700 Chinese soldiers to a UN peacekeeping force in Unity and Upper Nile States. The report indicated that the soldiers were being deployed to protect oil fields as well as Chinese workers and installations. China is the largest investor in South Sudan’s oil industry. However, the UN spokesman for UNMISS, the United Nations Mission in South Sudan, later denied the report, saying that the soldiers are to be deployed later this year to protect civilians.

Reports emerged Tuesday that several Nuer employees of different oil companies were denied payment and subsequently fired by the government. The SPLM in Opposition, one of the main armed opposition group, is led by Riek Machar, a Nuer and South Sudan’s vice president. President Salva Kiir is of Dinka ethnicity, and the conflict has seen severe ethnic violence and civilian targeting. The government has dismissed the reports.

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) requested earlier this week for donors an additional 17 million francs (approximately 19 million USD) due to alarmingly high malnutrition rates in South Sudan, prolonged displacement, and the intense pressure on health-care facilities. The ICRC aims to distribute food to 150,000 people with the additional money.

Central African Republic (CAR)

A new UN peacekeeping mission in the Central African Republic will begin next week. The mission will include 1,500 additional peacekeepers to join the 4,800 troops of the African Union-led MISCA peacekeeping mission, which includes a sizable French presence with 2,000 French troops. Together, the peacekeepers will operate under the UN as the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA). Meanwhile, the White House announced that 20 US Armed Forces personnel were deployed Wednesday to CAR to support the resumption of activities at the US Embassy in the capital of Bangui.

Also on Wednesday, the Special Envoy to the Secretary-General of the United Nations for the Great Lakes Region, Said Djinnit, met with Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos to discuss military and political stability in the region. In the meeting, Special Envoy Djinnit stressed the desire of the UN to strengthen its work in creating peace in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Central African Republic, and South Sudan. Meanwhile, CAR’s former Prime Minister called on the African Development Bank Group (AfDB) for further support on Tuesday. The former Prime Minister asked the AfDB to assist CAR through advocacy with international bodies to obtain their support.

Earlier this week, the international medical humanitarian agency Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), or Doctors Without Borders, was forced to cease its activities in the northern city of Batangafo due threats against MSF staff and the repeated raiding of the organization’s staff house. The organization states that suspension of activities will likely affect hundreds of people daily.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

In a statement issued on August 26, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) expressed concern at limited progress shown by a six-month voluntary repatriation program for the Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR), a militant group responsible for large-scale atrocities in Congo’s eastern provinces. The Special Representative of the Secretary-General for the Democratic Republic of the Congo commented that the FDLR interprets this six-month window as an opportunity to postpone previously scheduled demobilizations. FDLR combatants, among the parties responsible for the large-scale massacre of Tutsis during the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, remain in Congo’s eastern provinces and continue to commit war crimes against civilian populations. Given the regional and domestic threat posed by the FDLR, the UNSC has encouraged the Congolese military and UN forces in the Congo to use military force against FDLR commanders who refuse to demobilize.

UN Stabilization Mission in the DR Congo (MONUSCO) Force Commander General Dos Santos Cruz presented a cache of over 250 arms to the press. According to Dos Santos, MONUSCO recovered the weapons between the beginning of May and the end of August. The mission recovered the caches in abandoned 23 March Movement (M-23) militia strongholds in the Rutshuru territory of North Kivu. M-23 combatants occupied the city of Goma, provincial capital of North Kivu, for nearly two years before UN and Congolese forces pushed the militia out of the city. Dos Santos added that civilians played a large role in alerting MONUSCO about the existence of arms caches in abandoned camps, and the commander encouraged locals to continue to cooperate with MONUSCO to ensure the seizure and destruction of all M-23 weaponry.

Unarmed aerial vehicle (UAV or “drone”) technology will cost MONUSCO an estimated 15 million USD in 2014. UNSC Resolution 2098 (March 2013) grants MONUSCO the authority to use UAVs strictly for surveillance purposes. Proponents of the technology cite the comparative affordability of the technology relative to the mission’s annual budget (8 billion USD) as well as the deterrent effects that drones have on militia groups in the region and the ways in which drone presence helps reassure local civilians. Human rights groups reason that with this enhanced surveillance technology, the UN mission will no longer be able to “plead ignorance” in the face of attacks on civilian populations and will instead be forced to act. Officials in neighboring Rwanda expressed privacy concerns with MONUSCO’s use of drones. MONUSCO spokesman Colonel Félix Basse assured skeptics that drone cameras would not be used on Rwandan soil.

Emerging Conflicts: Nigeria

The radical Islamist group Boko Haram has made dramatic advances in northeastern Nigeria. It took the town of Madagali in Adamawa state on 23 August, and has also takenBuni Yadi and Bara in Yobe state. The bulk of its operations, however, have come in Borno State, where Gamboru Ngala, Banki, Ashigashya, and Gwoza have all fallen under Boko Haram control. While Boko Haram captured Damboa in July, it appears to have been retaken by the Nigerian military. Boko Haram has also launched a number of attacks across the border into Cameroon. As of 11 September, Boko Haram had the main city in Borno State, Maiduguri, surrounded. Nigeria Security Network says that “if Maiduguri falls, it will be a symbolic and strategic victory unparalleled so far in the conflict.” Boko Haram has already caused extensive civilian costs, where along with the many dead the UN has estimated that 650,000 people have been displaced.

These events mark a major shift in Boko Haram’s strategy. They had previously operated as a terrorist organization, with the bombing of a World Cup viewing center and the kidnapping of 276 schoolgirls serving as high-profile examples. While they continue to operate in a similar fashion outside of northeastern Nigeria, these recent events demonstrate that Boko Haram is becoming increasingly territorial. Reports of the appointment of an Emir in Gwoza and leader Abubakar Shekau’s declaration that the townis now ruled by Islamic law have led some to believe that Boko Haram is beginning to set up their own caliphate.

The Nigerian government has not appeared to be organized enough or taking the problem seriously enough to counter Boko Haram’s advances. There are reports of soldiers only having enough bullets to last a few minutes, and these problems led over 400 soldiers to flee and some to refuse to fight until they received better equipment. Soldiers have also blamed corruption within the army as being a major obstacle to efficient operations. President Goodluck Jonathan has been severely criticized for his response to the kidnapping of 276 girls in April that prompted the hashtag “Bring Back our Girls.” Still, supporters of Jonathan appropriated the phrase for the hashtag “Bring Back Goodluck 2015” in support of his reelection, although Jonathan asked his supporters to no longer use the hashtag after intense criticism.