Democratic Republic of the Congo

In November, Air Serv mobilized to assist Doctors Without Borders’ efforts to contain the cholera outbreak in Kasai province. Kasai has been a hotspot of conflict throughout the crisis, and the number of NGOs able to operate in the region is limited. Since January 1, there have been over 1,700 cases of cholera diagnosed.

Also in November, the Chair of the Security Council Sanctions Committee published his findings after an October visit to the DRC. He briefed the Council on the ongoing environment of instability and conflict, indicating that the uncertainty of the next election cycle is worrying the Congolese public.

The country drew international interest on November 23, when the Pope led a prayer calling for peace in DRC and South Sudan. Pope Francis intended to visit DRC earlier in the year, but cancelled his plans due to safety concerns.

As a result of President Kabila’s refusal to step down from power, violent protests have continued, killing seven protesters during a December demonstration, when internet and SMS services were discontinued country-wide. The DRC’s electoral commission claims that elections are unable to occur until the end of 2018. On December 8, 15 UN Peacekeepers were killed and 53 were wounded in what UN Secretary-General António Guterres called “the worst attack on UN peacekeepers in recent history.”

Burundi

On November 21, the United Nations Human Rights Council rebuked Burundi for threatening UN investigators with prosecution. The threats followed recommendations from investigators that Burundi’s top leaders be charged with crimes against humanity. The Burundian ambassador to the UN denied the charges and said that the country would pursue defamation charges.

A new health crisis is brewing in the country, and is sure to worsen if changes are not made, warns World Vision. On November 24, the organization indicated that there were upwards of 6 million cases of malaria in 2017, from which 2,800 have died. Though some nonprofits are distributing medical care and prevention measures such as mosquito nets, the crisis remains acute and response is underfunded.

Southeast Asia

Burma

On November 23, the Burmese and Bangladeshi governments signed a pact to begin the repatriation of hundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees, but the process was stalled in January due to fear from Rohingya of forced return to Burma. The process, described as “opaque and chaotique,” included an estimated 600,000 Rohingya to be brought back to Rakhine State, where they would be housed in temporary camps due to their homes being destroyed in fires. As part of the pact, Burma promised that they would not stay in these temporary shelters long-term and will be issued identity cards in the meantime. To further address the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, the Bangladeshi government has invested $280 million to move nearly 100,000 Rohingya refugees to an uninhabitable island in the Bay of Bengal.

Pope Francis went to Burma and Bangladesh to visit the refugee camps on November 28. He is under pressure not to use the word “Rohingya,” as there is fear that it could hinder “dialogue with the country’s leaders.”

24 U.S.-based Jewish groups sent a letter to Senator Bob Corker and Senator Ben Cardin, the Chairman and Ranking Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, outlining their desire for further condemnation of Burma due to the atrocities against the Rohingya. Groups ranging in doctrine, from the American Jewish Committee to the Anti-Defamation League, stated in their letter, “Passing this legislation through your committee and the full Senate would send a powerful message to the Burmese military and the global community that the United States will not be silent or inactive in the face of mass atrocities.” They proposed “mandating targeted US sanctions to help end the Myanmar military’s atrocities against the Rohingya people, providing refugee assistance for the Rohingya, and establishing a mechanism to address accountability around crimes committed against the Rohingya and other ethnic minorities in Burma.”

U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson announced on December 21 that the United States had imposed sanctions against General Maung Maung Soe, former Western commander of the Burmese military, due to his role in atrocities against Rohingya. Tillerson said, “Today’s announcement of sanctions demonstrates the United States will continue to pursue tangible and significant consequences for those who commit serious human rights abuse and engage in corruption.” These sanctions are made possible through the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act, enacted in 2016, which freezes any assets perpetrators may hold under U.S. jurisdiction.

The U.S. State Department said that they had examined credible evidence of Maung Maung Soe’s activities, including that he oversaw the clearance operations, which included extrajudicial killings, sexual violence, and burning of entire villages in Rakhine State that forced over half a million Rohingya into Bangladesh. The Burmese military continues to deny all allegations of atrocity crimes.

Sudan and South Sudan

Sudan

After claims that Sudan faced significant security threats from Ethiopia and Eritrea, Ethiopia has closed its border with Eritrea. During a joint press conference, the foreign ministers of Ethiopia and Sudan said they would work towards regional peace and stability. In addition, Sudan’s Foreign Minister Ibrahim Ghadoun stated, “we’re not talking “about threats to a country per se” but that they have information to anticipate “whatever danger can come from there.”

The UN acknowledged that arms trafficking activities in Libya and South Sudan have intensified armed conflict in Darfur. A report by a panel of experts revealed that factions of the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) have a presence in Libya and South Sudan respectively, violating an existing arms embargo.

In November, The World Food Program (WFP) restarted its transport of aid into Sudan, and several other corridors have been reopened. On January 7, widespread protests emerged in response to the rising price of bread, due to the Sudanese government’s elimination of subsidies as a part of its austerity campaign. These policies are a part of the IMF’s suggested actions to improve the Sudanese economy, the theory being that this will maximize the benefits of the US lifting sanctions. The government has stifled dissent, arresting an opposition leader and blocking critical coverage. So far, three people have died during these protests, including a high school student.

Rudwan Dawod, a dual citizen of the U.S. and Sudan, is being illegally detained, after being arrested for his involvement in fighting illegal land confiscation in Algarif East on December 6. A prominent activist involved in the Sudan Congress Party and the Sudan of the Future (SOF) campaign, Dawod’s actions supporting civilians in conflict regions like Darfur and the Blue Nile have led to his detention and torture in the past. After the National Security Act of 2010 was passed, the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) have been able to commit extra-judicial detainments of any perceived “enemy of the state.”

South Sudan

On January 12, Indian peacekeepers quickly built a bridge in Akoka to connect the village to larger urban areas, allow aid access, and pave the way for vital road repairs to proceed.

Pastoralist-farmer conflicts have remained consistent, bloody, and divisive. Several farmers, pastoralists, and women representatives took part in the Migration Agreement Dissemination Forum for the Marial-Bai agreement on cattle migration on January 10.  This forum hopes to reiterate and indoctrinate the agreement to younger generations. The agreement takes into consideration the the two different lifestyles of the pastoralist and farmer; how the lifestyles affect each other; and how to nonviolently resolve conflicts.

The U.S. is threatening new sanctions on South Sudan if progress towards peace isn’t made. Michael Morrow, the interim U.S. Ambassador to South Sudan, has threatened targeted sanctions on officials and an arms embargo. After numerous officials and state-owned companies were blacklisted, banned, and barred from the U.S. banking system earlier in 2017, the South Sudanese have engaged in peace talks. However, talks continue to be undermined by both sides.

On December 9, women marched in the streets of Juba, lamenting the ongoing war consuming South Sudan and its dire effects on women. Posters reading “Give our children pens, not guns” and “Save my future, stop the war” were carried by women of all different classes and ages. As the war enters its fifth year, women are demanding humanitarian aid promoting international dialogue by being at the forefront of protests.

In December, skirmishes in South Sudan took the lives of several government and rebel soldiers. 27 people died in a confrontation in the Southern Liech State. Additionally, 60 people were killed and many injured in ethnic clashes in Western Lakes State incited by reciprocal cattle-raids between the Rup, Pakam, and Dinka pastoralist clans. SPLA troops were dispatched to stop the violence. With much of the country food insecure, a scarcity of grazing land, and vast social distrust fueled by the war, ethnicity-driven attacks have been on the rise.

On December 15, a “hybrid” court was agreed on between South Sudan’s Council of Ministers and the African Union in order to prosecute war criminals.

Government forces attacked the southeast town of Lasu just as peace talks began on December 19. On December 24, a ceasefire went into effect as a direct result of a negotiated peace deal. Though the representatives of several countries and international organizations, such as Norway, China, EU, and IGAD, were present as guarantors and signatories, the U.S. representative refused to sign it. The deal will not only release several political prisoners, but will also open up areas desperately in need of humanitarian aid. Even after the ceasefire was implemented, a spokesperson for the SPLM-IO said that rebel bases in the north and in the southeastern Yei state have come under “the most aggressive attack” by government forces. The South Sudanese army spokesperson claims the opposite, saying that rebels violated the ceasefire, accusing them of instigating the government’s aggressive takeback of territory post-ceasefire. Any undermining of the ceasefire may lead to increased sanctions by the UN Security Council. The UN threatened similar severity if the use of child soldiers and sexual violence continues.

West & Central Africa

Central African Republic (CAR)

The Central African Republic experienced a 50%  increase in the number of displaced peoples in 2017. Foreign ministers from CAR and 10 other central African countries met on December 8 to discuss and address the violence in the region. The focus of the discussion was on “assessing and examining the security and geopolitical situation in Central Africa and a reviewing of disarmament and arms limitation programs in the region.”

Violence in CAR continued with an attack on a MINUSCA checkpoint on December 4 that wounded three and killed one. Secretary-General António Guterres “reiterate[d] the determination of MINUSCA to protect civilians and contribute to the stabilization of the Central African Republic,” and encouraged all parties in CAR to end the violence.

The Bloomberg Business Report found that gem smuggling is crippling the economy, making it even more difficult for the country to advance. According to this report, illegal diamond sales continue to fund conflict in the region, even though there is currently an embargo on diamonds from the Central African Republic. The government claims that it is aware of the illicit sales, but does not have the resources to counter them. In addition to gem smuggling, armed groups are using roadblocks to fund their operations.

Nigeria

In Nigeria, the fight against Boko Haram has a new face: General Nicholas Rogers. General Rogers replaced the former leader in the offensive against Boko Haram, Major General Attahiru Ibrahim, who was removed from his position in September. General Rogers previously led special military and police forces dedicated to fighting ethnic conflict in Nigeria.

The news of the change in leadership came not long after suicide bombers, suspected to be working with Boko Haram, killed at least twelve people in an attack on a market in Biu. In addition, reports from officials say that almost 50 were injured in the blasts.

On December 3, Human Rights Watch raised alarms over toxic pollution in northern Nigeria that has killed over 400 children since 2010. They reported that children are especially at risk due to the pollution.

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Soham Mehta is STAND’s Sudan and South Sudan Coordinator. He is currently a sophomore in high school at BASIS Chandler. Soham hopes to help educate people about of the scale and prevalence of genocides in order to raise awareness for legislation to counter current atrocities and to dissuade future ones. In his free time, Soham enjoys volunteering, drawing, and playing the guitar.

Caroline Brammer is STAND’s Southeast Asia Coordinator. Caroline is a sophomore majoring in Media and Journalism with a minor in Medical Anthropology at UNC Chapel Hill. She is eager to delve into her role as a member of the Education Task Force for Southeast Asia and excited to learn how she can influence change while on the other side of the world. She enjoys painting, writing, trekking, humanitarian work, and loves travelling above all else.

Rhiannon Winner is STAND’s Great Lakes of Africa Coordinator, focusing mainly on the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Burundi. She is a junior at Gettysburg College where she double majors in Political Science and Public Policy.

Elizabeth Westbrook is STAND’s Central/West Africa Coordinator focusing on the Central African Republic and Nigeria. She is a senior at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill where she is studying Political Science and History, with a concentration in Middle Eastern and African history. After graduation she hopes to pursue work in peace building and conflict prevention.

This week’s update focuses on failing peace talks in South Sudan and Burundi; hunger and famine in South Sudan and Nigeria; the proposed halt to the US conflict minerals rule, which will affect progress made on armed group funding, supply chain transparency, and money laundering; renewed fighting in the Central African Republic; and protests against Nigerian president Muhammadu Buhari.

South Sudan

On February 7, The Sudan Tribune published a report that two women have died from starvation in South Sudan’s Eastern Equatoria state. The incident reflects the food security difficulties that South Sudan is currently facing.

Since South Sudan’s controversial 2015 peace deal has created controversy because it requests that rebels who fought the administration of President Salva Kiir return to Juba, the capital city of South Sudan. The peace deal was administered by the former Botswana president Festus Mogae, who serves in the Joint Evaluation and Monitoring Commission (JMEC). Mogae reportedly said to the BBC that former Vice President Riek Machar should not return to Juba. These comments have raised the concerns of human rights experts who believe that Mogae’s remarks show favoritism toward the government of South Sudan. As the administrator of the peace deal, Mogae should not show favoritism to either side.

On February 17, South Sudanese minister of Labor Lieutenant General Gabriel Duop Lam joined the side of the rebels, marking the second high-level resignation this week from the government. The defection was confirmed at a news conference in Juba on Friday.

On the same day, a senior UN human rights official called for the need for accountability for “those committing atrocity crimes in conflict-torn South Sudan.” UN Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights, Andrew Gilmour said, “This is a war that has been waged against the men, women and children of South Sudan, and the only way of ending this onslaught will be when the perpetrators face consequences for what they’re doing.” Mr. Gilmour travelled to the country last month, where he observed the devastation and human rights abuses suffered by civilians. Gilmour went on to emphasize his frustrations with the limited access available to the UN Mission to South Sudan, whose mission is to protect and provide humanitarian assistance to civilians.

Great Lakes Region of Africa

Burundi

Peace dialogue in Burundi is crumbling as the government continues to refuse to participate. The Burundian government’s refusal to participate lies in the invitation of groups who they do not consider peaceful stakeholders. Meanwhile, the National Council for the Respect of the Arusha Accord (CNARED), an opposition group predominantly in exile, complained that Benjamin Mkapa, former president of Tanzania and mediator of the talks, was not including all invested groups in the dialogue and was therefore failing to represent the views of the Burundian people. In an attempt to satisfy CNARED’s concerns, Mkapa agreed to allow individuals accused of participating in a 2015 coup attempt to participate in the discussion. This decision spurred the Burundian government’s refusal to continue the peace talks, leading many in the region to doubt that the dialogue will see any success. The talks were scheduled to run from February 16 to 18, but the Burundian government refused to send representatives.

The government in Burundi maintains that the political crisis has ended and that Burundi is now a safe country, issuing a call for refugees to return home. The response from surrounding countries has been hesitant at best. In Uganda, contradictory statements have been made regarding the return of refugees to Burundi. The Minister for Disaster Preparedness Hillary Onek said that refugees would receive a three-month extension if they desired to stay, but the minister’s deputy Musa Ecweru claimed that the laws regarding refugees require that their return be voluntary. The Commissioner for Refugees of the Office of the Prime Minister, Mr. Kazungu Apollo, released a clarification that Uganda will support Burundians seeking asylum until they feel it is unsafe for them to return home.

The UN peacekeepers Burundi has sent to other countries, especially Somalia, have provided a source of financial support to the country’s defense department. The continued use of Burundian peacekeepers has raised concerns that the UN is indirectly funding repression in Burundi. Though the European Union pays the Burundian soldiers’ salaries, it has requested that the African Union find a way to pay Burundian peacekeepers without passing through Burundian banks.  

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Although pressure has been applied to the Congolese government to hold elections in 2017, the budget minister claimed on February 15 that “it would be difficult to gather the necessary $1.8 billion” for the election. The minister, Pierre Kangudia, claims that the government does not have the money to host elections in 2017 come just twelve days after the death of opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi. Tshisekedi was expected to lead a transitional government with the current President Kabila until elections could be held later this year. His death, along with the statements from the budget minister, have led to a renewed uncertainty about the future of democracy in DRC. The minister also stated that “we have to fill the holes before we can even put anything in it [the treasury],” a reference to the corruption present in the country.

Meanwhile, President Trump re-ignited a conversation about conflict minerals and the Dodd-Frank law in the United States when a directive was leaked that would temporarily suspend the Dodd-Frank law for two years. The executive order declared that the secretary of the treasury would “review regulations on financial institutions and report back specific recommendations.” The Dodd-Frank act requires US firms to “declare where they’re sourcing their gold, tin, and other minerals, often used in consumer electronics.” Removing this piece of legislation, or even simply suspending it, could lead to a resurgence in investment in conflict minerals: gold, tin, tungsten, and tantalum. In eastern Congo, armed rebel groups sell these resources to fund violent activities, and this policy change opens the possibility of a backslide in improvements made in responsible sourcing practices in the past few years.

Violence between the government and various militias in the DRC continues. Over a five-day span from February 9 to February 13, soldiers killed at least 101 people in an altercation with the Kamwina Nsapu group in central Congo. UN human rights spokesperson Liz Throssell accused the troops of “firing indiscriminately” and using “excessive and disproportionate” force to handle the situation. The deaths of 39 women in this altercation support the accusation. The UN peacekeeping mission in the DRC also stated that the Kamwina Nsapu group had “committed violent atrocities and used child soldiers.”

Major armed groups active in the eastern DRC include the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), which also carries out abuses in the Central African Republic, the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), comprised predominantly of Rwandan Hutu linked to the 1994 genocide, the Forces for Patriotic Resistance in Ituri (FRPI), which is responsible for various abuses against civilians, local Mai-Mai community-based militias, and the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an armed Ugandan group that has bases in eastern Congo.

Central and West Africa

Central African Republic (CAR)

In the last three weeks, the Central African Republic (CAR) has seen a resurgence of violence perpetrated by armed groups. On February 7, rebels killed at least five civilians after the Central African army, with support from UN peacekeepers, killed Youssouf Malinga, also known as “Big Man,” a leader of a local Muslim militia group, during an operation. Additionally, over two dozen were wounded, and two churches and a school were destroyed. Just four days earlier, a clash between two armed groups in Bocaranga killed civilians and compelled thousands to flee to nearby forests.

Much of this violence continues because of its political and economic expediency. Warlords continue to exploit religious tensions in the country to gain popular support and strengthen their political bargaining power, thus increasing their chances of earning a government position. Because the judicial system has been unwilling or unable to prosecute these individuals for their crimes, a culture of impunity has been created, encouraging such behavior. In fact, the idea of blanket amnesty for war crimes recently arose while President Faustin-Archange Touadéra was meeting with the leaders of several armed groups. Beyond political rewards, the revenue that armed groups obtain from natural resource extraction further incentivizes them to continue to perpetuate violence. This may be exacerbated if President Donald Trump follows through on a proposal that would suspend federal rules on conflict minerals. Members of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) say that this policy could lead to “the resurgence of armed groups controlling and exploiting minerals. This might ultimately lead to a generalised proliferation of terrorist groups, trans-boundary money laundry and illicit financial flows in the region.”

Much of the future of CAR depends on action taken by the international community. On February 15, the Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous warned the international community not to turn away from the country, as armed groups remain a grave threat. As such, the peacekeeping force in the country has changed its deployment to more effectively protect the country. Regional organizations have also gotten involved, with the African Union, the Economic Community of Central African States, and the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region launching a joint-initiative for a national peace and reconciliation agreement. Only concerted international attention will allow this lengthy conflict and humanitarian crisis to cease.

Nigeria

According to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), at least half a million children under the age of five in northeastern Nigeria will suffer from severe acute malnutrition during this upcoming year, leading up to twenty percent of them to die, unless more aid is given. At least fourteen million require some type of humanitarian assistance. The hunger crisis in the northeast is caused primarily by Boko Haram, whose attacks have displaced millions of farmers, significantly reducing their ability to farm. The man-made famine is the first in over a decade. Donor countries from 14 countries pledged to scale up funding for vulnerable groups threatened by famine at the Oslo conference last month.

Thousands of Nigerians are expressing their grievances at the present humanitarian situation by protesting the government of Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari. Although much of Boko Haram has been defeated, citizens believe Buhari has failed in his other responsibilities related to eliminating corruption, bolstering the education system, and promoting economic growth. In particular, the economy has suffered under Buhari with plummeting exchange rates and virtually non-existent foreign direct investment. Anger is exacerbated by Buhari’s decision to receive medical treatment outside of the country, attesting to his lack of trust in local healthcare. Concern for the president’s health—and questions about whether it may be worse than government officials are saying—is putting further pressure on the government and raising concerns about the continued functioning of the political system.

Both Boko Haram and other militants in the Niger Delta continue to pose a problem in Nigeria. Seven suicide bombers, six of whom were women, launched an attack in Maiduguri on February 16. Though there were no civilian casualties during this attack, such attacks continue to occur with regularity around the country. Horrifically, Boko Haram is now deploying children as young as nine, who are able to get through security checkpoints more easily. The petroleum minister of Nigeria also recently announced that armed groups in the Niger Delta cost the  country between $50 and $100 billion in oil revenue as it was forced to cut back production by nearly two hundred thousand barrels per day. Although a detailed plan has recently been released to end the insurgency through development of infrastructure and social institutions, it remains to be seen whether Nigeria will have the financial or technical capacity to effectively do the job.

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Justin Cole is STAND’s Central and West Africa Coordinator. He is a Junior at UNC Chapel Hill where he majors in Economics and Peace, War, and Defense.

Elizabeth Westbrook is STAND’s Great Lakes of Africa Coordinator. She is a Junior at UNC Chapel Hill where she is a Political Science major.

Joanna Liang is STAND’s Sudan and South Sudan Coordinator. She is a Junior at the University of Delaware where she majors in History Education.

Jason Qu is STAND’s Emerging Conflicts Coordinator, focusing today on Nigeria. He is a Senior at Bronx High School of Science.

This week’s news brief focuses on President Kabila’s struggle for power in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the threat of  terrorist attacks in Burundi, and a renewal of violence in the Central African Republic despite recent pledges of aid. Though Boko Haram has continued to wreak havoc in Nigeria, the Nigerian army has had some recent successes against the terrorist group.

Great Lakes Region of Africa

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Concerns over increasing violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo mounted as December 19 approached without any likelihood of a peaceful transition of power. Over the past months, violence has periodically erupted  in direct response to the continuation of President Joseph Kabila’s term, as well as by militant groups, particularly in the east, who benefit from a lack of law enforcement. President Kabila remains in office due to the ruling of the constitutional court, which claims that he has the right to remain in office until a new president can be elected democratically. In the leadup to the 19th, the government police force declared all protest illegal.

LUCHA, a youth-led rights group in the DRC, maintains, along with many members of opposition parties, that the end of Kabila’s term was December 19,  2016. Multiple activists in the group, which organized peaceful protests as the date approached, have been detained unjustly. The detentions, along with the violent response to peaceful protests by the Congolese government, led to an increase in violent altercations between protesters and security forces.

Opposition members claimed that they intended to protest until Kabila was forced to step down. The opposition held protests on September 19 as a warning, and were met with overly aggressive and violent police action resulting in at least 50 deaths. Within two days of Kabila’s decision not to step down, demonstrations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo led to the deaths of over 20 people. Protesters in the capital Kinshasa set fire to the headquarters of the ruling party. Police responded to protesters with tear gas and by opening fire on multiple demonstrations. Meanwhile, members of the police force went door to door arresting known opposition members in cities considered to be strongholds. Congolese diaspora also participated in demonstrations in both Belgium and South Africa.

Access to phone lines and the internet was restricted before the election, making it more difficult for opposition groups to communicate and for the community to receive outside information. The main target was social media, which is especially important to young members of the opposition. Youth in Congo make up a significant portion of opposition movements as they pursue a more positive future.

International pressure is increasing from all directions on Kabila to step down and to respect the rights of his citizens. Calls for Kabila to respect human rights came from the United Nations, the European Union, Britain, France and the United States. Lawmakers in the United States also pushed Kabila to step down, however he has clearly chosen to remain.

Over the weekend of December 4, 31 people were killed in an altercation  between an insurgent group and government forces. The violence occurred in the Kasai province and has claimed to have been “sparked by a row between an uncle and a nephew over the title of a traditional chief.” The “row” resulted in the deaths of eighteen militiamen and thirteen members of the force sent to end the violence.

On November 27, an attack by a militia group killed 34 people in the North Kivu province in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. The Mai-Mai Mazembe militia group who perpetrated the attack are one of many established by warlords in eastern DRC. In addition to this violence, there have been disputed reports of the Twa ethnic group attacking a freight train resulting in one death and seventeen injuries. The actions of various militia and ethnic groups have become more transparent as forces anticipate a transition into a more lawlessness.

Human Rights Watch Senior Researcher Ida Sawyer testified at the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission to draw attention to the violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and call on the US government to continue to apply sanctions and pressure for a transition of power. She suggested the possibility for the government to combine forces with various militias to maintain control over the country, which may lead to mixed results.

Burundi

Burundi faces the threat of potential terror attacks on Western and local targets while dialogue attempting to find a solution to conflict remains stagnant.

In Burundi, police have been informed of threats from regional terror groups to the Bujumbura International Airport and the Kajaga neighborhood. The police force claims that it has received similar threats in the past beginning in 2007 with their support of peacekeeping missions in Somalia. The US embassy has issued a warning to all travelers to take extra precautions when traveling by air or in the Kajaga neighborhood.

Other residents of Burundi face terror as they discover crosses painted on their homes in the middle of the night. Local governments claim that “no political, ethnic or religious group in particular was targeted” and that the Imbonerakure, the youth wing of the ruling CNDD-FDD party, was not responsible because they were included in the targeted houses. However, residents of the town are skeptical and believe that the Imbonerakure is at fault and is targeting those in opposition to the ruling party.

On December 8, dialogue facilitator former Tanzanian President Benjamin Mkapa arrived in Bujumbura for a series of meetings. There is uncertainty over who will participate in the dialogue, as members of various opposition parties have previously fled Burundi to other East African countries, and CNARED-GIRITEKA, the main opposition coalition group, has said that they no longer consider Mkapa as a legitimate facilitator of dialogue. This move came after Mkapa publicly recognized Nkurunziza and his government as the legitimate leaders of Burundi, saying that those who believe otherwise are “out of their mind.” Mkapa is basing his meetings off of a roadmap developed to engage Burundian politicians and parties and to encourage stabilization of the country, and has said he would like an agreement signed by June. Mkapa has met with political parties, religious groups, and other members of Burundian society. However, the current government claims it will not be speaking with opposition parties. The dialogue has received expressions of support from France, who has been a crucial aid provider in recent years.

In Gitega, attempts at a grassroots solution to peace are arising. Open discussions invite anyone able to participate to come and express their concerns. Some negotiators see this method as a potential way to include local people in high-level mediation talks, which have thus far only included elites and political opposition members.

The progress of human rights in Burundi is still deeply debated as the President of the National Independent Human Rights Commission claims improvements have been made this year in comparison to 2015. However, on December 18, more than 500 families were forcibly removed from their homes in the Kagaragara locality of Buringa Commune by the government. This is a new and unprecedented level of invasion into personal life. The governor of the area claims that families were moved into a more stable area because criminals in the Western region are destabilizing it. Individuals who were removed no longer have access to important documents and personal items that were stored in their homes. They also no longer have access to money and their crops, which will lead to an even greater increase in hunger in this region of Burundi.

Central and West Africa

Central African Republic (CAR)

On November 18, European donors at the Brussels Conference pledged approximately $2.2 billion of aid to the Central African Republic (CAR) after President Faustin-Archange Touadéra described his strategies for bringing long-term peace to his country. Although this amount is short of the $3 billion requested by the government in its recovery plan, Federica Mogherini, the foreign affairs chief of the European Union, stated his hope that the financial assistance would move the CAR towards “sustainable growth, deep reforms, and national reconciliation.” Such progress is needed quickly given the severe humanitarian crisis in the country. Data from the United Nations demonstrates that twenty percent of children will die prior to turning five years old and half of those remaining will experience chronic malnutrition. Clearly, any help from the international community cannot arrive quickly enough.

Unfortunately, there was an abrupt renewal of violence shortly after the announcement of this news. On November 21, fighting between the Popular Front for the Renaissance of the Central African Republic (FPRC) and the Union for Peace in Central Africa (UPC) that began in Bria spread to Bambari. At least eighty-five people were killed, dozens more were wounded, and over ten thousand people have been forced to flee their homes from clashes between these groups. What is perhaps most troubling about this incident is that the FPRC allegedly targeted ethnic Fulani citizens, killing them in their homes and making it impossible for survivors to access hospitals. Adama Dieng, the UN Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, warned that continuing to commit such crimes could make the perpetrators subject to the jurisdiction of international courts. In response, the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission (MINUSCA) sent more troops to the territory surrounding Bria.

In the midst of these atrocities, the UN recently finished investigating the stories of dozens of women and children who allege they were subjected to sexual assault by peacekeepers in CAR. Because the crimes allegedly took place long before the beginning of the investigation in April, interviews conducted with nearly one hundred and fifty women and children were the main focus of the Office of Internal Oversight Services (OIOS). Although some evidence was dismissed as unreliable, the OIOS ultimately released the names of forty-one peacekeepers who may have committed such crimes, sixteen of whom were from Gabon and twenty-five of whom were from Burundi. The OIOS has requested that these governments process these individuals in their respective judicial systems, noting that “responsibility for further investigations lies with Burundi and Gabon.” Even though the United Nations condemned these crimes, it will likely be far more difficult now to build trust between peacekeepers and the local population in CAR, which will be crucial for the cycle of violence to end and for the country to move forward.

On December 14, the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) reported an “alarming increase” in atrocities in the Central African Republic (CAR) over the last few months. Specifically, 1,301 human rights abuses have been confirmed, which represents a seventy percent increase when compared to the time between September 2014 and May 2015. MINUSCA noted that the abuses “were primarily arbitrary executions, cruel treatment, sexual violence, deprivations of liberty, destruction of private property, and restrictions on freedom of movement.” Séléka and anti-Balaka militia groups continue to exert a great deal of authority in the CAR as the government struggles to contain them.

Human Rights Watch released a report on December 20 detailing the rise of a new armed group in the Central African Republic (CAR) known as “Return, Reclamation, Rehabilitation,” or 3R. The group emerged in the northwest, which has largely been neglected by the fragile CAR government as well as the international community, and continues to claim that it is attempting to protect the minority Peuhl from anti-Balaka fighters. Human Rights Watch has confirmed that 3R has slaughtered civilians, raped women, and destroyed countless villages as MINUSCA has been unable to curtail the violence.

Much of the ongoing violence in CAR can be tied to impunity. Although those who commit crimes in CAR can be prosecuted by both the International Criminal Court and the Special Criminal Court, a court consisting of both national and international judges to investigate human rights abuses since 2003, there has not been enough international support for these bodies to operate effectively.  Worse, it has been incredibly difficult to negotiate with the warlords who lead armed groups because they have too much to lose. Not only would they lose access to the natural resources in their pockets of territory, but they would potentially be subject to punishment for their role in human rights abuses. It is yet to be seen whether the $2.2 billion of aid recently pledged at the Brussels Conference will be enough to end the violence. It may be time for the UN to send a stronger peacekeeping force to the country and to broaden its mandate.

Nigeria

At the third annual Dakar International Forum on Peace and Security in Africa that took place on December 6 in Senegal, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari argued that the complete defeat of Boko Haram was imminent. Unfortunately, recent events suggest that this is likely too optimistic. Although the terrorist organization has lost the vast majority of the territory that it once controlled, it remains a deadly force. Yaga Yarkawa, the chair of the Chibok government area, recently stated that “Chibok is not safe, contrary to claims by government and security operatives,” citing attacks against over half a dozen villages by Boko Haram. The terrorist organization has also continued inflicting damage against the military in Nigeria. On November 23, a lieutenant general in the army was pronounced dead and just one day later, two soldiers were killed in Askira Uba in Borno state. On December 12, yet another officer in the Nigerian army was killed, Lieutenant Colonel O. Umusu. Unsurprisingly, Nigeria is ranked third this year with regards to the number of terrorist attacks within its territory and William Assanvo, an expert on militants in Nigeria, recently said that “there is little to indicate the group is nearing its end or even that it is severely weakened.” Concentrated efforts by the Nigerian military must continue if the country is to be successful in defeating the group.

The Nigerian army has had a few recent successes. In a campaign against Boko Haram in the Sambisa Forest, nearly two thousand women and children were reportedly rescued and over five hundred Boko Haram terrorists were captured. On December 20, Abubakar Shekau, the leader of Boko Haram, was allegedly captured in the area around the Gafa Mountain. However, there is some question as to whether the man seized was actually Shekau.

There is one important bright spot with regards to those living in the Borno State. On December 16, crude oil was discovered in this territory, which could potentially help its economy recover after being ravaged by Boko Haram for years. Unfortunately, it will likely be difficult to obtain the oil until Boko Haram is permanently defeated, which could obviously take many more years.

Though not often talked about, some of the worst atrocities in Nigeria, have been conducted not by Boko Haram, but by Nigerian military officers. According to Amnesty International, Nigerian soldiers have killed at least one hundred and fifty protestors between August 2015 and August 2016 by firing into crowds. Those responsible for these human rights abuses have not been investigated. On the other hand, some progress finally has been made with regards to holding Nigerian soldiers accountable for sexually abusing women and children who were forced to flee from their homes because of Boko Haram. On December 6, Ibrahim Idris, the Inspector-General of Police, said that ten people had been arrested as suspects. He further assured the country that those found guilty of committing such crimes would face justice in court.

Beyond the atrocities committed by both Boko Haram and Nigerian soldiers, the humanitarian crisis in Nigeria continues. The UN estimates that 400,000 children are at risk of starving in northeastern Nigeria. Because homes and farms have been burned by Boko Haram, many families are unable to obtain food, leaving them to hope that the international community will intervene and provide assistance. Unfortunately, the response of the UN has been essentially nonexistent, prompting criticism from some in Europe. Although the international institution finally admitted that “the crisis can no longer be ignored” on December 2, there is concern as to whether this recognition will be enough to save tens of thousands of Nigerians from impending starvation. It is also problematic that Buhari is insisting that the UN is exaggerating the magnitude of the crisis for “financial gain,” a claim repudiated by countless sources.

Over the past two weeks, Boko Haram has continued to commit atrocities throughout Nigeria. On December 10, two schoolgirls blew themselves up in the middle of a market in Madagali, a town in northeastern Nigeria, killing forty-five people and injuring thirty-three more. Using young girls as suicide bombers has become a disturbing trend for Boko Haram, as young girls generally do not attract as much attention from authorities.

South Sudan

On December 20, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned that South Sudan may face genocide unless immediate action is taken to enact an arms embargo. He warned, “If we fail to act, South Sudan will be on a trajectory towards mass atrocities.” The U.N. chief urged the Security Council to impose the arms embargo which would “diminish the capacity of all sides to wage war.” U.S. Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power has said there will be a vote on the sanctions by the end of 2016 and council members will have to make a decision “on the issues of life and death that have been raised by the secretary-general.”

On December 19, South Sudan President Salva Kiir rejected reports of an imminent genocide in the country, claiming it was only a strategy to justify calls for an imposition of targeted sanctions and an arms embargo.

The humanitarian situation has deteriorated dramatically in the past year. In 2016, 6.1 million people in South Sudan required humanitarian assistance, and the aid community expects this number to rise by 20 percent to 30 percent in 2017.

Conditions for South Sudanese refugees in Uganda are grim. A clinic called Ocea Centre Two that was built in the early 1990s to serve local Ugandans, has become a settlement of some 85,000 South Sudanese refugees. As the UN makes multiple statements regarding ethnic cleansing in South Sudan, Uganda can barely open camps quickly enough to accommodate the influx of refugees. An average of 1,500 have been arriving every day since July 2016.

On December 19, the UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) reported that 584,573 South Sudanese refugees have arrived in Uganda since the civil war broke out in December 2013. Resources for the refugees are limited. There isn’t enough food, water, or sanitary pads for women, and education for children is limited. It may be safer in Uganda, but conditions are also inhumane. In August, the World Food Programme (WFP) cut rations by 50 percent for all refugees who had been in Uganda before July 2015. Now, the organization faces a funding shortage of $62 million for all refugee operations in the country for the next six months. If this continues, WFP will be forced to cut the quota for new arrivals as well. Even though they are receiving their allocated amount of food, most newly arrived refugees speak of hunger and say they don’t eat enough.

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Justin Cole is STAND’s Central and West Africa Coordinator. He is a Junior at UNC Chapel Hill where he majors in Economics and Peace, War, and Defense.

Elizabeth Westbrook is STAND’s Great Lakes of Africa Coordinator. She is a Junior at UNC Chapel Hill where she is a Political Science major.

Joanna Liang is STAND’s Sudan and South Sudan Coordinator. She is a Junior at the University of Delaware where she majors in History Education.

The Northeast region of Nigeria is devastated by famine and food insecurity. The famine in Nigeria is the first man-made famine in the world in over a decade. UNICEF has stated that 75,000 children will die the next year in Borno State, a state roughly the size of West Virginia, if the humanitarian crisis is not urgently addressed. Recent reports show that roughly 4 million people are experiencing food crisis and 2.5 million children have severe cases of malnutrition and are struggling to survive.

While the Northeast has suffered from chronic underdevelopment, these alarming levels of suffering are in large part due to violence caused by Boko Haram, the same group which kidnapped the 276 Nigerian Chibok school girls two summers ago and committed the largest number of atrocities against civilians of any “terrorist” group in the world in 2015. The Nigerian government and humanitarian community have not been able to access civilians living in the areas that Boko Haram controlled for much of the last two years. As the international community regains access to the region, they are finding a humanitarian catastrophe of epic proportions.

As it stands, families do not have the resources to respond to this crisis. As a humanitarian projects manager Michael Mu’azu for Mercy Corps told The Huffington Post, “The carnage becomes more glaring as we gain access to newer areas, and it has become a struggle for those of us in the forefront to comprehend how to help the thousands we come across who need our support.” Families have spent years living in a threatening environment and now must find the strength to face a new kind of threat which attacks the most basic connection between a mother and a child. Field workers are reporting that mothers are now too malnourished to produce breast milk for their own children.

Visibility on this crisis, now, is vital. Lest we repeat: this is a famine, the first man-made, preventable famine in the world in over a decade. Unfortunately, media and politicians alike are preoccupied with a wide range of complex issues, but that is no excuse to let the famine in Nigeria go unchecked.

Photo by Corinna Robbins/Mercy Corps

We must use our combined voice to advocate on behalf of the needs of Nigerian families. We must make it perfectly clear that we as Americans, as parents, as siblings, and most importantly as humans will not tolerate this sort of tragedy. We will not patiently wait as hundreds of thousands of families bury their children. We will not wait for a generation of Nigerians to die.  Our collective morality will not allow for it. Instead we will raise our voice to our communities and our elected officials and we will demand greater funding and political attention for Nigeria. We will demand a concise, efficient, and effective humanitarian response before this crisis escalates even further.

The death of a child is inherently wrong. It is an experience that cannot truly be imagined until someone has lived through it. Many parents, regardless of where they live in this world, feel as though they are put on this earth to protect their child and to ensure their child has everything they need. Parents often equate the loss of a child with a direct failure on their part to act as a guardian. We cannot allow the mothers and fathers of Nigeria to carry this emotional weight alone. Instead, we will listen to their stories and as an international community of caretakers we will walk with them, we will support them, and we will address this crisis.

Take action now: sign this petition to Congress to ensure there’s enough humanitarian assistance to Nigeria to stop this tragedy and continue to raise your voice to #FightTheFamine.

Want to take further action? Call your Senators and Representatives, and mobilize your family and friends to do the same. Now is the moment to make a difference, let’s not pass it by.

Note: Featured Image by Tom Saater/Mercy Corps

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Corie Walsh recently graduated from University of North Carolina, with a degree in Peace, War, and Defense. She does research on issues mass atrocities, civilian protection, and identity-driven conflict. Notably, Corie co-founded a micro-finance program for Ugandan women; started the first collegiate chapter of the UN Shot@Life Campaign; and has engaged in initiatives such as AIESEC, RESULTS, Roosevelt Institute, Conference on World Affairs, and Beyond Conflict. She can be reached at coriewalsh@gmail.com.

This week’s news brief focuses on the Central African Republic (CAR), Nigeria, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Burundi. In Nigeria, violence is on the rise by both Boko Haram and the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA). In South Sudan, the UN is threatening an arms embargo if a peacekeeping force is not allowed by the government. Those opposed to a third term for President Kabila DRC are preparing for a fresh wave of protests, as he is constitutionally mandated to step down in December.

Central and West Africa

Central African Republic

On September 23, Faustin-Archange Touadéra, the president of the Central African Republic (CAR), spoke optimistically about the status of his country at the annual general debate of the United Nations General Assembly. Praising the United Nations, Touadera stated that he was proud of the progress that had already been made in establishing peace and stability in the country. Yet his speech also remained somber as the president acknowledged challenges still facing the state. Just five days before this speech, rebels killed dozens of citizens in the small village of Ndomete in one of the worst episodes of violence in the past few months. In response, the peacekeeping mission in the country elected to bolster its position in the area surrounding the site of the massacre. The lack of security in the country was also on display in the capital of Bangui on October 4. Three men grazing their flocks were killed, and Marcel Mombeka, the head of the armed forces in CAR, was assassinated. The combination of these two incidents has prompted some concern among those who fear that the country could spiral back into violence.

In the midst of this fragile peace, CAR also is attempting to rebuild the country, which has a long history of human rights abuses and mass atrocities, most recently in the wake of the 2012 coup d-état. On November 17, the CAR Donors and Investors Conference will take place in Brussels and will focus on rebuilding the capacity of the government so that it will be able to provide public goods such as security and social welfare programs. Unfortunately, there has been some criticism that such a conference will not do enough to involve local communities, which have grown increasingly capable of solving their own problems in the absence of a functional national government. As such, the national government must use pledged funds not as a temporary solution to immediate problems, but as a foundation to permanently rebuild the country.

Nigeria

On September 25, Boko Haram launched two different assaults against military positions in northeastern Nigeria. The first attack killed four soldiers in Logomani, and the second killed three soldiers and an officer near Bama. Both positions are under seventy miles from Maiduguri, the capital city of Borno state, where Boko Haram has been the most active.

Nigeria is also dealing with a second insurgency led by a group known as the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) who have been attacking oil and gas pipelines in an attempt to expel multinational oil companies from the country and obtain a more equitable distribution of revenue from such commodities. On September 23, the group, which had briefly halted its assaults, launched an attack against the Bonny crude export line. Just under a week later, they struck again against the Unenurhie-Evwreni delivery line. In response to these attacks, the National Association of Nigerian Students has attempted to reach out to the militants in this region and has urged them to end the violence, arguing that it only contributes to environmental degradation and economic setback. The Nigerian military has opened up a negotiation process with the militants, but also warned the group that it will strike back hard against those who do not participate.

The aggressiveness of Boko Haram and the Niger Delta Avengers combined with the steep decline in oil prices have had a severe impact on the economy of Nigeria, which depends almost exclusively on oil. On October 4, European Union official Fillippo Amato advised Nigeria to devalue the Naira in an attempt to mitigate the effects of the economic recession. The purpose of such a move would be to attract foreign investors who have understandably been wary to put their capital into a country still plagued by outbreaks of violence. This policy combined with more aid from the European Union should help alleviate the presently bleak humanitarian situation in Nigeria.

South Sudan

In September, The UN Security Council went on a three-day trip to South Sudan. Despite recently celebrating its fifth birthday, there was little appetite for celebration as violence continues to endanger the country’s prosperity. The most recent conflict included intense fighting between President Salva Kiir’s army and former Vice President Riek Machar’s troops, a reignition of the civil war after several months of calm. The conflict left at least 300 dead in July.  

The civil war in South Sudan sparked from the political conflict between President Kiir and former Vice President Machar. Even though they signed a peace deal a year ago, conflict has continued and Machar fled the country in July. According to a report by the Paris-based Sudan Tribune, Foreign Minister of South Sudan Ibrahim Ghandour said his government would not allow the armed opposition to attack South Sudan from its territory.

The country has endured a devastating civil war for 3 years now. The concerns over female safety in South Sudan continue to rise. In collaboration with International Women’s Media Foundation, Al Jazeera published an article on girls education in South Sudan. The article’s interviews with several South Sudanese girls make clear that girls in the war-torn country are extremely vulnerable. Many have been forced into early marriage and remain at risk of sexual abuse. However, the article also noted that girls in South Sudan are taking a stand to seek an education while fighting for their futures in one of the world’s most unstable countries.

On September 27, the Wall Street Journal published a news article on South Sudan’s peacekeeping force, which indicated that South Sudan’s government has repeatedly blocked the UN peacekeeping mission. The Associated Press acquired the initial UN report, which showed an ultimatum dealt by the UN to South Sudan: it must accept the deployment of a 4,000-strong regional protection force from the UN, or face a possible arms embargo. The UN chief listed 22 incidents in which South Sudanese security forces denied access for the U.N peacekeepers to operate their mission and made threats to their safety. Also on September 27, rebel forces in South Sudan said government troops launched attacks in the north. The troops threatened immediate retaliation. The threat has raised fears of further escalation of the civil war.

Great Lakes Region of Africa

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

The electoral commission in the DRC declared on Saturday, October 1 that polls would be delayed until December 2018. President Kabila has claimed that as many as 10 million unregistered voters would be disenfranchised if the election were to take place in the coming months and intends to remain in power until elections can be held.

Opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi has warned that protests will be organized again on October 19, two months before the end of President Kabila’s mandate, which is December 19. Tshisekedi claimed that the protests on September 19, in which over fifty people died, were a warning to Kabila, and that the October protests will be a “yellow card” that will ultimately lead to a “red card” if Kabila does not step down in December. Le Rassemblement, a group of opposition parties, has declared that they would interpret Kabila staying in office longer than his two terms as high treason. They have also denounced attempted peace talks as a “pseudo dialogue” and an attempt by the president to legitimize his strategy.

The opposition protests have drawn the attention of the international community, leading the United States to declare sanctions against Major General Amisi Kumba and former Senior Police Official John Numbi. The US Treasury said in a report that the sanctions have been raised in response to “increasing indications that the Government of the Democratic Republic of Congo continues to suppress political opposition in the country, often through violent means.” France also raised the issue of European Union sanctions on Tuesday, October 4, claiming that Kabila has no right to stand for re-election, and should step down.

Meanwhile the government in the DRC has claimed they will not allow South Sudanese rebels to stay any longer. The 750 armed opposition soldiers were in “extremely bad shape” and were staying in the Eastern Congo. The government has asked the United Nations Peacekeeping Mission (MONUSCO) to remove the group as they are considered a security threat.

Burundi

The United Nations presented an independent investigation on Burundi on Tuesday, September 27 that accused the government of Burundi of human rights abuses. The report includes the verification of 564 summary executions since Nkurunziza’s announcement that he would pursue a third term in office. The report has also confirmed evidence of rapes, disappearances, and mass arrests. The UN investigation specifically states that “widespread and systemic […]  patterns of violations clearly suggest that they are deliberate and the result of conscious decisions, it is in the government’s power to stop them.”

Protests have been held in Bujumbura, the capital of Burundi, aiming to modify the UN investigative report. The government and protestors claim that the report is biased and based in rumors and gossip. However, in response to the report, the UN Human Rights Council adopted a resolution to create a commission to identify perpetrators of killings and violence. The violence remains political in nature, though there are concerns that the violence could become ethnically motivated as the top levels of government are using “unpleasant ethnic rhetoric” in an attempt to sway core Hutu supporters. The resolution and the investigation have both made reference to the possibility of invoking Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations, which allows the UN to intervene using military and nonmilitary measures in order to restore peace and security. The UN has also pledged to work more closely with the East African Community to promote peace in Burundi.

Journalist Jean Bigirimana remains missing after being reported to have been arrested by security forces outside of the capital in July. Amnesty International is engaging activists with an online action urging an investigation into his case, and structural changes to protect journalists in the country.

In addition, Burundi is now facing a potential cholera epidemic and lack of clean drinking water in Mugoboka, a neighborhood in the Burundian capital. Over 9,000 people use the same source for drinking water, and although the chief of the Ruhero zone where Mogoboka is located denies any deaths caused by the cholera, he does acknowledge that the water shortage is a problem. The government is responding by trying to build a new public tap.

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Justin Cole is STAND’s Central and West Africa Coordinator. He is a Junior at UNC Chapel Hill where he majors in Economics and Peace, War, and Defense.

Joanna Liang is STAND’s Sudan and South Sudan Coordinator. She is a Junior at the University of Delaware where she majors in History Education.

Elizabeth Westbrook is STAND’s Great Lakes Coordinator. She is a Junior at UNC Chapel Hill where she is a Political Science major.

Boko Haram’s violence seemed nearly unstoppable early this year, with a weak Nigerian military incapable of slowing their attacks.  Yet in five weeks Nigeria made more progress than they had in years, reclaiming 17 of 20 local government areas that had been controlled by Boko Haram with the help of Chad, Niger, and controversial South African mercenaries.  The election of Muhammadu Buhari, an experienced general whose campaign focused on defeating Boko Haram, also offered promise after years of government neglect of the threat posed by Boko Haram. Boko Haram’s violence decreased each month from January to May, and there were signs that differing views towards ISIS may have been causing a split in the organization.

However, it has not all been smooth sailing for Buhari, especially since Boko Haram’s increase in violence.  He came into office with a nearly bankrupt country and the low price of oil causing a huge hit to the government treasury.  The budget shortfall left the government struggling to pay salaries of civil servants and the military.  Further evidence also emerged that the Nigerian military had committed extensive human rights abuses against civilians in their fight against Boko Haram.  Buhari did take a positive step by moving the military’s command center to Maiduguri, close to Boko Haram’s insurgency.  The U.S. has also agreed to increase military aid to Nigeria, having withheld aid in the past due to the Nigerian army’s history of human rights abuses.  Yet Buhari’s administration remains extremely empty, as he has struggled to fill cabinet positions and recently fired the heads of the army, navy, and air force.  Whether Buhari’s government will be able to fight Boko Haram in these circumstances remains to be seen.  Even if the government has a strong and coordinated response, it will take many years to address the marginalization of Nigeria’s northeast that gives rise to Boko Haram.

Throughout the decline in Boko Haram violence this year, it was unclear whether Boko Haram was struggling to survive or laying low while preparing for renewed attacks.  While there may be some truth to the former, Boko Haram’s recent attacks suggest the latter.  Boko Haram has launched suicide bombings and attacks by gunmen often multiple times a day.  They have also expanded the range of their attacks, attacking not only their normal targets in the northeast, but also Kano, Jos, and even the Chadian capital N’Djamena.  However, while these attacks still are extremely deadly, they do not necessarily mean Boko Haram is returning to its past strength.  Boko Haram’s recent resurgence has focused almost entirely on terrorist attacks rather than re-gaining territory. The geographical expansion of their attacks, too, may suggest that Boko Haram is focusing on spreading terror in recognition that it is not strong enough to win in traditional battles.

While Boko Haram has generally targeted areas around Maiduguri, recently they have attacked Kano, Jos, and Chad’s capital.

Relative to their violence earlier this year, Boko Haram’s recent resurgence remains small.  Yet reports still emerge of Boko Haram attacks killing three, eleven, twenty-five, or forty with such regularity that the shocking becomes mundane.  The lowest monthly violent death toll of 2015, May’s 767, is still more than almost any conflict in the world.  Although the situation is brighter than it has been in the past, it is still very, very bleak.

Tim Hirschel-Burns is a rising junior at Swarthmore College. You can follow him on Twitter @TimH_B

In my role as Emerging Conflicts Coordinator, my focus is to find countries at risk of mass atrocities. All too often, this risk becomes a reality. While Nigeria’s position is still far from ideal, recent events have been a welcome point of optimism. Nigeria is now much closer to stopping a mass atrocity than it was just a few months ago. To explain how Nigeria got to this moment, I will rewind the clock to the beginning of 2015.

Boko Haram terrorizes northern Nigeria

The radical Islamist group Boko Haram has caused chaos in northern Nigeria for years. It enforces a strict interpretation of Islamic law on the areas it controls and has little hesitation to use brutal force on anyone considered an opponent to their goals. The Nigerian government, on the other hand, is based in the primarily Christian south, while the north is largely Muslim, poor, and has largely been neglected by the government. In its early years, Boko Haram gained some traction by feeding on common grievances in the north. However, despite common discontent with the Nigerian government, Boko Haram’s extensive violence against civilians has also ruined almost all possible political support it could have acquired there. Further, Boko Haram sees itself not as a resistance movement representing northern Nigeria but as part of a struggle for global jihad.

Over the course of 2014, Boko Haram gained unprecedented strength. April marked the infamous kidnapping of 276 girls from a school in Chibok, the subject of the “Bring Back Our Girls” campaign. In the wake of the kidnapping, many said the Nigerian government took far too long to respond to the kidnapping, as it has to most Boko Haram attacks. The government further angered Nigerians when it announced it had successfully negotiated the release of the girls, only to backtrack when it became clear no such deal had been made. Ultimately, while some girls managed to escape, 219 were never returned. Boko Haram made further progress as it captured a number of towns in Borno state, bombed locations across Nigeria, and even began launching frequent attacks into Cameroon. By the end of 2014, Boko Haram had killed over 6,000 civilians. Nigeria’s army was poorly organized, underpaid, and under-equipped, and suffered frequent defeats to Boko Haram forces. It has also committed extensive human rights abuses against Nigerian civilians.

The situation at the start of 2015 already looked bad, but on January 3, things took a turn for the worse when Boko Haram seized a military base and attacked the nearby town of Baga. Death tolls were initially placed upwards of 2,000 people. The Nigerian government claimed only 150 people were killed, while it was likely somewhere between 500 and 1,000 people. Ongoing conflict makes it extremely difficult to get accurate information out of northeastern Nigeria, although there was undoubtedly extensive destruction to Baga.

Election Delayed

Nigeria’s presidential election was originally scheduled for February 14. The election placed the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan, against former military dictator Muhammadu Buhari, who lost the previous election. Jonathan, a southern Christian, took massive hits to his popularity as a result of corruption scandals, the falling price of oil, and his failure to deal with Boko Haram. Many even speculated that he saw the success of Boko Haram as an electoral opportunity, as Boko Haram’s advance made it more difficult to vote in overwhelmingly Buhari-supporting parts of the North.  Buhari’s chances suffered from his past as a military dictator–although he now claims to be a reformed democrat–and the fact that Nigeria had never had a challenger defeat an incumbent president in a democratic election. Buhari did, however, have stronger credentials to fight Boko Haram and benefited from Jonathan’s large unpopularity.

On February 8, the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) announced that the election would be delayed until March 28th, citing disruption caused by Boko Haram and difficulties in registering voters. However, it was not clear that the situation with Boko Haram would improve in six weeks, and some speculated that the move was designed to give Jonathan time to gain popularity.

Boko Haram Beat Back

At the beginning of February, Nigeria’s neighbors Chad, Cameroon, and Niger began sending in troops to combat Boko Haram. They were motivated in large part by a fear of Boko Haram’s insurgency spreading and a lack of confidence in Nigeria’s ability to defeat them. While the details of the operation are not entirely clear, Nigeria also began hiring mercenaries to combat Boko Haram. The mercenaries may have even taken a leading role in combat operations, although the Nigerian government states that they were only acting as advisors. These new operations made major progress against Boko Haram, recapturing 17 of 20 local government areas that had been controlled by the militant group.

Elections Take Place

On March 28, elections finally began. Polls placed the candidates neck-and-neck going into the election. The head of INEC, Professor Attahiru Jega, had led extensive preparations to ensure a fair election. For the most part, voting went smoothly, and even internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Borno state were able to vote. However, in certain locations voting was pushed back to March 29, and there were some claims of attempts to falsify vote counts. Boko Haram, which had made clear its staunch opposition to elections, killed 41 people in an attack aimed at disrupting the election.

Votes were counted over the course of a few days, and on March 31 Buhari claimed victory. There were many fears of post-election conflict similar to that following the 2011 elections, when approximately 800 people were killed. However, Jonathan quickly conceded the election to Buhari and urged his supporters not to respond with violence. Buhari ultimately won with 15.4 million votes to Jonathan’s 13.3 million. Buhari gained support well beyond the north, with many former Jonathan strongholds swinging to Buhari or suffering from low voter turnout.

Cautious Optimism

Compared to what could have happened, and what many expected, recent events have been very successful for Nigeria. After years of military defeats to Boko Haram, Nigeria achieved huge victories over the course of just six weeks. The strength of Nigeria’s democracy far exceeded expectations, leading to a calm, organized election and a peaceful turnover of power.

Still, many potential potential pitfalls remain. Buhari’s presidency is far from a sure success, and it remains to be seen whether democratic norms will be respected. Additionally, though Boko Haram was defeated in several locations, there are few indications that Nigeria’s military has improved, and it is undetermined whether or not human rights abuses were committed by Nigeria’s allies in their efforts to defeat Boko Haram. Even after recent defeats, Boko Haram’s violence against civilians remains one of the world’s gravest mass atrocities. However, recent events provide long-awaited good news for Nigeria. If they can serve as a stepping stone for further progress, the horrors Nigerians have suffered may finally be nearing their end.

Timmy Hirschel-Burns is a sophomore at Swarthmore College and STAND’s Emerging Conflicts Coordinator.  Follow him on Twitter at @TimH_B

As STAND moves into a new stage as an independent, self-sustaining organization, we’ll continue to advocate for human rights in our existing areas of concern: Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burma, and Syria. Given our global scope, however, we’re keeping our eyes peeled for additional opportunities to highlight civilian protection in U.S. foreign policy worldwide. In 2013, here are a few civilian protection crises that we’ll be watching.

Civil War in Syria

With both sides in Syria continually failing to reach political agreements, it seems unlikely that the Syrian civil war will find an end without thousands of more civilian deaths. As Syria reaches its two year mark, the opposition is gaining ground and the regime is slowly eroding. However, even if the regime falls, it is unlikely that peace will be found with the opposition in its current state. Today, the West seems more likely than ever to support the opposition, which could hasten the opposition’s control. As the Syrian regime becomes more desperate, the fear of chemical weapon use by both sides will become more salient, and an international intervention will become more likely.

Ethnic Violence in Nigeria

Nigeria’s violence represents a confluence of crises, many of which have plagued the country throughout its decade-and-a-half management of civilian rule. Throughout the past three years, the Nigerian government has struggled to contain the domestic consequences of Boko Haram, an Islamist insurgency which has emerged from Nigeria’s marginalized northern provinces. As Boko Haram’s operations fragment, and its attacks on civilian and military targets creep further south, Abuja will struggle to contain the organization’s impact on inter-communal violence in central Nigeria’s volatile Middle Belt region. To complicate matters, security services appear unable to uphold a civilian protection mandate, leaving civilians throughout northern Nigeria in the crosshairs.

Political Divisions in Sudan

Discontent in Sudan, both within the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) has been growing throughout 2012. The Sudanese government has cracked down on growing revolts in Khartoum over rising costs of living, targeting students protesting austerity measures, rising tuition costs, violence against female Darfuri students, and the recent murder of four male Darfuri students. The crackdown against peaceful protesters, the swift response to a possible coup attempt in late November, and the NCP’s political divisions show state weakness and point to more repression in the coming year. In addition to political tensions within the NCP, Khartoum continues to fight the Sudan Revolutionary Front, limiting access to humanitarian aid organizations in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, and displacing hundreds of thousands of civilians into South Sudan.

State-Building in South Sudan

As the world’s newest state, South Sudan has witnessed border conflict with neighboring Sudan, inter-communal violence, and civilian discontent with state services. South Sudan’s Upper Nile and Unity states are home to approximately 200,000 refugees from Sudan’s South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, and conflict in South Sudan’s Jonglei State, caused by climate change and localized militarization, has internally displaced approximately 80,000 people. In addition to managing refugee and IDP influx, in 2013, South Sudan will need to improve its basic infrastructure, strengthen security, carry out a civilian disarmament campaign, and reach an agreement with Sudan on citizenship issues. Widespread poverty and South Sudan’s lack of funds for infrastructure and assistance are obstacles to these goals.

Continuing Instability in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo

The M23 group in the eastern DRC, allegedly backed by bordering Rwanda and Uganda, has increased human rights abuses and internal displacement in the east, leading to the M23 takeover of Goma in late November. While peace talks have been initiated, violence in the region remains rampant, and the Congolese government does not have the capacity to address the longstanding security and governance issues that the east faces. Without a meaningful commitment to political and governance reform by the DRC government and with the continued meddling of Kigali in eastern Congo, the situation will likely continue in 2013.

Cartel Violence in Mexico

As we’ve observed, Mexico’s cartel violence is a challenging case for atrocity prevention advocates: clashes between cartels, as well as between cartels and Mexican security forces, appear criminal, yet mirror the scope and scale of civil conflicts elsewhere. Mexico’s cartel conflicts occur in the context of trans-regional drug trafficking, as well as the U.S. government’s efforts to limit the domestic reach of the illicit narcotics trade. Mexico’s new President Enrique Pena Nieto has indicated an interest in diffusing the country’s crisis, but has remained ambiguous on particular steps towards mitigating violent clashes between cartels and the security services. U.S. politics may also prove a decisive factor, as the second Obama administration ponders the implications of Colorado and Washington’s recent marijuana legalization referenda for domestic and international drug policy.

Electoral Violence in Kenya

During the three-month aftermath of Kenya’s 2007 presidential polls, a corrosive mix of elite competition and popular mobilization facilitated a devastating wave of electoral violence, which continues to drive Kenyan politics in 2013. As Kenya heads towards its next presidential contest, which will likely occur in March, the atrocity prevention community is looking for early warning signs of conflict outbreak. The Kenyan state appears incapable of containing outbreaks of violence at the local level, such as the recent inter-communal clashes in the coastal Tana River Delta. While post-2007 reforms have encouraged broader accountability within Kenyan politics, two International Criminal Court indictees, William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta, remain active participants in the current race.

Tentative Reforms in Burma

In the past year, Burma has undergone a series of political, economic and administrative reforms at the hands of the Myanmar government. Political prisoners have been released, labor laws introduced, censorship relaxed, and an independent National Human Rights Commission convened. While these signs are heartening, conflict between the Kachin and the Myanmar military continues in the north and the government seems to have little interest in negotiating peace between the Rakhine and Rohingya in the west. In light of the country’s recent reforms, the US has eased up on sanctions, and it will be important to protect resource-rich minority areas from entering corporate power.