This week’s conflict update covers events since the beginning of 2019 in STAND’s key focus areas: Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Yemen, Syria, Burma, and the escalating crisis in Venezuela. We are thankful to STAND Action Committee members Grace Harris and Maya Ungar, as well as STAND Managing Committee members, Grace Fernandes, Isabel Wolfer, Hannah King, Vishwa Padigepati, Caroline Mendoza, and Zachary Gossett for researching and writing pieces of this brief.

Sudan and South Sudan

Sudan

Weekly protests every Thursday calling for the end of the al-Bashir regime continue as they enter their fourth month. These peaceful protests, which originally began in December to protest the rising costs of basic goods and shortages of fuel, have resulted in dozens of civilians killed, hundreds injured, and thousands detained as Sudanese security forces responded with extreme force, including tear gas, batons, and ammunition. The Sudanese Professionals Associations (SPA), one of the primary groups coordinating the marches, named the demonstration on March 21 the “Procession for Justice” as a memorial for war crimes committed by the government. Although the government has reduced the excessive use of force against demonstrators, between 30 and 50 protesters have been killed since December 2018.

On February 22, President Omar al-Bashir declared a yearlong State of Emergency in an effort to quell the protests. The legislature has since cut this to six months. Earlier this month, Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes in Darfur, delegated leadership of the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) to Ahmed Harun, who is also wanted by the ICC for war crimes in Darfur.

Earlier this month, an emergency court sent eight people to prison for participation in anti-government protests. The Democratic Lawyers Alliance, a group supporting the protests, reported that at least 870 protesters were brought before these emergency courts that were established due to al-Bashir’s declaration of a national emergency.

Interested in learning more about current events in Sudan and how you can support peaceful demonstrators? Join our webinar on Thursday, March 28 at 7 PM EST – click here to register!

South Sudan

Violence in South Sudan continues despite the peace deal signed by President Salva Kiir and rebel leader and former Vice President Riek Machar last fall. The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan, stated last month that the peace agreement has done little to deliver immediate improvement for civilians or enhance accountability measures, noting an increase in arbitrary detention, torture, execution, and gender-based violence. Notably, more than 10,000 people have been displaced since January due to violent clashes between government forces and armed groups. Violence has been particularly severe in Central Equatoria State, where the National Salvation Front has clashed with the government army. Thousands of refugees displaced by this unrest have fled to the Democratic Republic of the Congo over the past eight weeks. A UN report released last week concluded that South Sudan’s population is the least happy in Africa.

In late March, an almost $185 million spending deal was approved by the transitional government. This decision sparked criticism from observers claiming that the peace deal continues to suffer from a lack of funds due to corruption. Last December, the government allegedly authorized over $135,000 to renovate private residences owned by First Vice President Taban Deng Gai and the late revolutionary leader John Garang. Experts have expressed concern over an increasing lack of financial transparency among government officials and warned that international donors may not contribute to the depleting transition fund as consequence.

Great Lakes of Africa

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Controversy surrounded the long-awaited DRC elections in December 2018. In addition to internet and text messaging shutdowns, signal cuts of Radio France Internationale, and voter intimidation and coercion, voting was postponed for voters in three opposition areas, restricting voting for over a million Congolese citizens. Over 1,000 polling stations in Kinshasa were closed due problems with voting machines and voter lists, and election observers were unable to access many polling stations and vote tabulation centers. In the wake of these events, at least 10 people were killed and dozens wounded by security forces during protests against the victory of Félix Tshisekedi. Notably, the Catholic Church, one of the most trusted institutions in the country, leaked results based off of their voter observation efforts that Martin Fayulu, another opposition candidate, had won by a landslide. Fayulu has challenged the results in court, but to no avail.

Concurrently, Congo has suffered a grave Ebola epidemic which has exceeded 1,000 cases, making it the world’s second worst outbreak. Due to ongoing conflict in Eastern DRC, there is great deal of public mistrust when it comes to treatment of the disease, and armed groups have staged attacks on ebola treatment centers, inhibiting the response of health workers. Just last week, two Médecins Sans Frontières treatment centers were set on fire in such attacks, forcing them to suspend operations in these areas. According to UNICEF statistics, children represent a third of ebola victims, and women, who often serve as primary caretakers of sick children, have also been disproportionately affected.

On March 14, DRC held Senate elections in which former President Joseph Kabila’s party, the Common Front for Congo, won the majority of  seats while Tshisekedi’s party, the Union for Democracy and Social Progress, won only 3 out of 100. There is evidence of at least 20 candidates who withdrew from races due to voter bribery efforts by provincial assembly members. As such, Tshisekedi has not allowed the newly-elected senators to take office, pending an investigation, and has indefinitely suspended the gubernatorial elections that were scheduled for next week.

Middle East

Yemen

At the end of 2018, there was cautious optimism for the situation in Yemen as the warring parties met in Sweden for peace talks. They agreed to a ceasefire in the strategic port city of Hodeidah, as well as a prisoner exchange. However, the condition of ordinary Yemenis remains bleak, with 80% living in poverty and 110,000 suspected cases of cholera. Since the war began, the World Bank estimates that 35% of businesses have closed, with household income plummeting due to inflation and currency devaluation. While the ceasefire has lead to short respites from violence, civilian deaths remain high and both parties blame the other for violations. The agreed-upon prisoner exchange has yet to occur and relatives of those imprisoned are calling for the parties to uphold the agreement. The continuation of peace talks has been delayed and some say time is running out. Additionally, some from southern Yemen are threatening a new conflict if they are not included in the talks. There have been calls for independence in southern Yemen since the unification of Yemen in the 1990s, as the ruling north has sidelined local economic and political concerns.

The United Nations is seeking $4.2 billion for the continuation of humanitarian work over the next year. Last month, they regained access to the Red Sea Mills, a food storage center pivotal to efficient food distribution in the region. Despite their active involvement in the war, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pledged $2.6 billion dollars to fund the UN humanitarian plan for Yemen. However, the full funding goal is, as of now, unmet.

In the United States, the House and Senate voted this year to end assistance to Saudi Arabia’s efforts in Yemen, each passing a version of the War Powers Resolution. However, since the language is not identical, the House must vote on the Senate version before being sent to the White House to be signed into law. President Trump has threatened to veto this legislation if passed.

Syria

As Syria enters the ninth year of civil war, Syria’s refugees and internally displaced peoples have suffered another harsh winter. Over 37 internally displaced children were frozen to death, both in Rukban Camp, and fleeing from Hajin, an ISIS-held bastion further north. In late January 2019, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey revived the idea of creating safe zones along Turkey’s border to protect civilians. Concerns remain as to whether refugees may be forcibly returned as a result, and how safe zones would affect Kurdish civilians. Turkey has long has tensions with the Kurdish people, who have long fought for political autonomy in Turkey and throughout the Middle East. Since the beginning of the conflict, over half of the country’s pre-war population has been displaced, with 5.6 million people living as refugees and 6.2 million people displaced internally. Half of those affected are children.

On March 23, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces announced a military victory over the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS), who once held a third of Syria and Iraq’s territory. Following this victory, the top military commander in Syria’s Kurdish territory, who led anti-ISIL efforts, urged President Bashar al-Assad to pursue dialogue and in order to reach a political solution towards an autonomous Kurdish region. In response to the announcement of the defeat of the ISIL, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany said they would remain vigilant of the group’s “sleeper cells” that still pose terrorist threats. Amongst military strategists, concerns remain that victory will be fleeting, and that ISIS will regroup once troop withdrawals are complete.

Southeast Asia

Burma

Content Warning: This section describes sex trafficking and sexual violence.

The situation of the Rohingya has continued to worsen in 2019. The Rohingya, a primarily-Muslim ethnic and religious minority group, have long been persecuted by the Burmese government. Since August 2017, thousands have been killed, driving hundreds of thousands across the border to Bangladesh, sparking international outrage and leading to the creation of the largest refugee camp in the world. Overcrowding in the camps has led to further problems. Bangladesh, already a very poor country, has struggled to handle the influx of refugees, and are seeking to move Rohingya refugees to an island in the Bay of Bengal. This island is remote, frequently hit by cyclones, and is considered uninhabitable. Experts worry that this forced movement will lead to further problems for the vulnerable Rohingya population.

Conflict continues against ethnic minorities due to Burmese military activity in the Kachin and Shan states. These conflicts have increased the vulnerability for exploitation of Kachin and Shan women. While men fight, women must take increasingly risky job opportunities to support their families, some of which lead to human trafficking. A massively incriminating report released by Human Rights Watch last week uncovered the human trafficking of Kachin women forced to become wives in China. Originally promised jobs in China, these women discover upon arrival that they were instead sold to Chinese families. They are locked away and repeatedly raped until they become pregnant. After having a child, the women either remain as sex slaves or are returned to their families, sometimes after years of abuse.

Emerging Crises

Venezuela

The Venezuela crisis began in January when the opposition-led National Assembly declared Juan Guaidó the interim president of the country. For years, Venezuela has suffered from hyperinflation, food shortages, and increasingly totalitarian policies at the hands of Nicolás Maduro’s government. While the U.S. and the majority of the EU and Organization of American States support Guaidó, Russia and Cuba, long-time Maduro allies, continue to support the current government.

Early on March 21, Venezuelan authorities apprehended Guaidó’s chief of staff, Robert Marrero, marking a significant escalation in the political crisis. His arrest mirrors similar crackdowns on dissent by Maduro’s government. Venezuelan doctors also face government pressure after attempting to alert the UN to the dire shortage of essential medicines. Michelle Bachelet, the UN Human Rights Chief, has criticized both the Maduro regime for cracking down on dissent, and US sanctions for exacerbating the conflict.

The US claims that these sanctions are meant to target government activities alone, yet many argue that they are hurting the most vulnerable Venezuelans. Along with sanctions, the US has increased intelligence sharing in the region, providing information to Colombian authorities about insurgents who have been strengthened due to the Venezuela conflict. While unconfirmed, experts speculate that Maduro is allowing insurgent activity in order to prepare for possible military intervention. If true, these actions would simply be the latest example of the Maduro administration’s transgressions.

Recent US-Russia talks over Venezuela have stalled due to the differing visions of Maduro’s role in the nation, and on Monday, Russia landed two military planes in the country, a move the U.S. denounced as a “contradiction of both Nicolas Maduro’s and Russia’s calls for non-intervention […] [and] a reckless escalation of the situation.”

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Grace Harris, who contributed to the Sudan section of this brief, is a sophomore at Tampa Preparatory School in Florida, where she serves as the president of her STAND chapter. She joined STAND after learning about the Darfur genocide in my World History 1 class during her Freshman year, seeking an opportunity to take action and make a difference in the world. In addition to leading STAND at Tampa Prep, Grace serves on STAND national’s Sudan and Yemen Action Committees.

Isabel Wolfer, who contributed to the South Sudan section of this brief, is STAND’s Communications Coordinator and a member of the Sudan Working Group. She is a senior at The George Washington University in Washington, DC and a former intern for the Darfur Women Action Group.

Hannah King and Vishwa Padigepati, who contributed to the Yemen section of this brief, are members of STAND’s Managing Committee and the Yemen Action Committee. Hannah is STAND’s Campaigns Coordinator and a senior at Clark University in Massachusetts and Vishwa is STAND’s Advocacy Coordinator and a student at Fairmont Preparatory Academy in California.

Maya Ungar, who contributed to the Burma section of this brief, is a junior at the University of Arkansas and is serving as STAND’s Southeast Asia Coordinator for the 2018-2019 academic year. She is currently studying abroad in Chiang Mai, Thailand.

Grace Fernandes, who contributed to the DRC section of this brief, is a junior at Simmons University in Boston, Massachusetts, and one of STAND’s Student Co-Directors. She leads STAND’s Indigenous Peoples Action Committee.

Caroline Mendoza, who contributed to the Syria section of this brief, is a junior at Cerritos High School in California, and serves on the STAND Outreach Team. She is a member of the Burma and Yemen Action Committees.

Zachary Gossett, who contributed to the Venezuela section of this brief, is a sophomore at Butler University and a member of STAND’s Outreach Team, He serves on the Indigenous Peoples and Burma Action Committees.

Moaz al-Khatib, the president of the Syrian National Coalition (SNC), Syria’s main opposition group, resigned Sunday stating that international powers have failed to help the rebels and that he could only improve the situation outside the Coalition. Analysts have speculated that al-Khatib resigned due to frustration over disproportional influence by Qatar and Islamists in the Coalition. However, Khatib stated that the Coalition refuses to discuss his resignation, which leaves the possibility that he may be asked to reverse his decision. Meanwhile, the political and media coordinator of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) announced that the FSA refuses to recognize the newly elected prime minister of the SNC’s newly formed interim government, Ghassan Hito, on the grounds that the Coalition did not form a consensus on his election.

On Tuesday, SNC replaced the Assad regime in the Syrian embassy to the Arab League as the League embraced the right for members to supply military aid to the rebels. The move drew sharp criticism from the Assad regime, Russia, and Iran. The following day, Assad sent a letter calling for help from the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the BRICS countries, calling for help to end the war. Russia, China, and South Africa have voted against UNSC resolutions on Syria previously. Moaz Al-Khatib’s call for the US to use Patriot missile defense batteries located in Turkey against Syrian warplanes at the Arab League summit was rebuffed by US officials, who reiterated the purely defensive nature of the missiles.

On Monday, Jordan closed its main border crossing with Syria following increased clashes nearby between Assad forces and rebels. Fighting has also increased in the Quneitra region near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, with the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and Local Coordination Committees reporting rebels overrunning several army posts. Fighting also intensified in Damascus. Last Thursday, a suicide bombing in a Damascus mosque killed one of the top pro-Assad Sunni preachers and 41 others, wounding at least 84 more.

The New York Times reported that Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey have been funneling arms to Syrian rebels with the help of the CIA since early 2012. Arms flows intensified late last year, corresponding to increased rebel gains. American officials stated that the role of the CIA has been purely consultative, and was offered to influence suppliers to direct arms away from Islamist groups and to prohibit certain weapons that could later be used for terrorism from entering Syria. Some rebels have expressed frustration over the American role in the arms supply, saying that it has limited access to crucial weaponry in the struggle against Assad.

Burma

As of Tuesday, March 26, at least 40 people are confirmed dead and more than 12,000 displaced following sectarian violence between Buddhists and Muslims in central Burma. The violence began last Wednesday, March 20, in Meikhtila following an argument between a Muslim-owned gold shop and a Buddhist couple. The conflict quickly escalated, spreading throughout the area to other nearby towns and even the capital, Naypyidaw causing Myanmar President Thein Sein to impose a state of emergency in the area. Many shops and homes, particularly those of Muslims, as well as mosques, were burned to the ground. Some reports (Washington Post, New York Times) claimed that rumors on social media contributed to the quick escalation and spread of violence in central Burma. The Myanmar military was quickly sent to the area to quell the violence with curfews and bans on public gatherings imposed in nine separate townships. The Myanmar government, as well as the US, UN, and others, emphasized a strong desire to bring about peace, fearing that this religious violence could threaten recent democratic reforms.

On Wednesday, March 27, opposition leader and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi attended an annual military parade for the first time. Held in the nation’s capital Naypyidaw, the parade commemorated Armed Forces Day. The military, which imprisoned Suu Kyi and many of her supporters, claimed they intended to stay involved in national politics. To the objection of Suu Kyi and her party, the National League of Democracy, the Myanmar constitution guarantees the once-ruling military 25% of Parliament.

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Bosco Ntaganda’s surrender marks the first time that a suspect has surrendered voluntarily to International Criminal Court (ICC) custody. He arrived in The Hague on Friday, after surrendering himself to the US embassy in Kigali. Arrest warrants for Ntaganda were issued in 2006 and 2012 for war crimes and crimes against humanity, including murder, rape and sexual slavery, recruitment and use of child soldiers, and pillaging during the Ituri conflict in northeastern Congo in 2002-2003.

On Tuesday, Ntaganda made his first appearance before the court. His lawyer says he plans to apply for interim release. The charges hearing will begin on September 23, 2013, when judges will decide whether there is sufficient evidence to establish substantial grounds to believe Ntaganda committed each of the crimes he is accused of. Should the charges be confirmed, the case will go to trial. London-based Chatham House says, “Bosco’s surrender clears the way to a negotiated settlement between the M23 and the Congolese government. More symbolically, it marks the end of a cycle of Rwandan-backed rebellions that started at the beginning of the second Congo war in the 1990s,” claiming that “the M23 is likely to be the final iteration of a pattern that has shaped Eastern DRC for fifteen years […] but it is not going to be transformative.”

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Congolese Foreign Minister Raymond Tshibanda N’tungamulongo agreed that the upcoming UNSC resolution on the DRC should strengthen the MONUSCO peacekeeping mission and endorse the Secretary-General’s approach to addressing the root causes of instability in the Great Lakes region. He has also called on the UNSC to authorize the deployment of a special MONUSCO force with the ability to conduct, with or without the Congolese army, offensive operations against all armed groups that threaten peace in eastern DRC.

On March 23, Presidents Paul Kagame of Rwanda, Joseph Kabila of DRC, Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, and Denis Sassou-N’Guesso of Republic of Congo-Brazzaville met in Brazzaville to discuss ongoing regional efforts towards ending conflict in eastern DRC and establishing security in the region. The leaders also expressed strong concerns on recent developments in the central African Republic, where Francois Bozize was overthrown earlier this week.

Central African Republic

President Francois Bozize of the CAR fled to Congo after rebels took control of the capital, Bangui, as well as the presidential palace, on Sunday. Since Friday, several towns have fallen after a peace accord between the rebels and the government collapsed. The rebels are made up of several opposition groups officially known as the Séléka coalition. They have faced little resistance from the ill-trained and ill-equipped CAR army. Bozize and his family have since relocated to Cameroon.

A few days before the coup, Amy Martin, the head of the Bangui branch of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), told IRIN that security was deteriorating, and that “The agreed conditions are not being respected by either side: release [by the government] of prisoners, the quartering of armed forces by Séléka. There are more rumours of additional former rebel groups to join the Séléka coalition. All remain very uncertain and unpredictable.” Margaret Vogt, Special Representative to the Secretary-General for the CAR, added that “Séléka now controls three-quarters of the country.” The Séléka offensive began on 10 December 2012, and is the latest in a series of crises in the CAR. For an in-depth analysis, see Danny Hirschel-Burns’ blog post here.

Ugandan troops remain deployed around border areas of the CAR, DRC, and South Sudan, where Joseph Kony and the LRA are thought to be. Some analysts believe that the African Union’s decision to suspend the CAR from the AU may have negative effects on the hunt for the LRA. “If Séléka is unable to consolidate control, it would further the physical and tactical net within the which LRA can seek opportunities to rebuild weapons caches,” said Angelo Izama of the US-based Open Society Foundation. The LRA Crisis Tracker reports that in February the LRA was responsible for 13 civilian deaths and 17 abductions in the CAR, and UNOCHA says an estimated 443,000 people are currently displaced in LRA-affected areas. In addition, 5,663 Sudanese refugees in the CAR have been uprooted because of the coup d’état, and are now living in “deplorable” conditions.

South Sudan

Reports surfaced today that a heavy military battle inside South Sudan’s border killed 163people, mostly rebels, when government forces clashed with rebels affiliated with David Yau Yau. South Sudan accuses Sudan of arming Yau Yau’s rebellion in order to block South Sudan’s plans to build an oil pipeline through Ethiopia to a port in Djbouti. Sudan has repeatedly denied these accusations. South Sudan has accused the government of Sudan of launching a heavy and coordinated attack on Northern Bahr el Ghazal state, killing at least three innocent civilians and wounding several others. These reports come as the UN verified this week that Sudan and South Sudan have moved troops from Abyei, the first step of the demilitarization of the border zone that should be completed by early April.

Jonglei women vow to leave men if violence continues. They also demanded that women be given greater involvement in peace talks and political decisionmaking processes. The women-only peace conference outlined 20 key recommendations aimed at bringing peace to their communities and the state at large. The recommendations largely relate to education, security, infrastructure and rights.

A recent article “South Sudan’s Red Army comes of age,” explains how the former child soldier army of South Sudan that fought for independence since the 1980s, called the Red Army, is now becoming a civil society organization. “In a landmark transition from warfare to welfare, former child soldiers in the Red Army are establishing a foundation aimed at addressing social problems in South Sudan.”

Cash was stolen from South Sudan’s President’s Salva Kiir’s Office this week.  Original reports stated millions of dollars were robbed, but those amounts were denied by Kiir. It is believed that 176,000 Sudanese pounds and $14,000 (US Dollars) were stolen.

Sudan

The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement North (SPLM-N) announced its readiness for direct talks with Khartoum and proposed a constitutional conference brokered by African mediation. Although the Vice President of Sudan welcomes talks with opposition groups, many are skeptical of his sincerity, as several key members of opposition are still under arrest.

A 64-year-old Sudanese Christian woman is being held without charge by the Sudanese government. This comes as part of a larger crackdown on Christian churches, orphanages, and schools.

In Darfur, reports continue to show sexual violence towards women and girls by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), as well as lawlessness in the region. Militia groups have reportedly looted 50 million Pounds’ in goods from a Central Darfur IDP camp, and seized 31 displaced people at gunpoint on Sunday. The arbitrary seizures are accredited to the SLM-AW Darfuri rebel group.