1) Syria

2016 was a disastrous year for an already horrific conflict, as the Assad regime stepped up its use of sieges and as the fight for Aleppo last month became even harsher than many expected. The rebels are increasingly weak, particularly more moderate factions, and many rebels and civilians who were in formerly rebel-held territory, particularly around Aleppo, have been pushed into Idlib. The possibility remains that civilians that survived the brutal siege of Aleppo will once again face similar circumstances as the Syrian government and its allies push to retake further opposition territory. The U.S.,an increasingly peripheral player in the conflict, was left out of the most recent round of peace talks, and President-Elect Trump seems likely to withdraw support with the opposition and increase cooperation with Russia, a main ally of Assad. Turkey has also become more cooperative with Russia and is now focusing on combatting Kurdish influence rather than supporting the opposition. Already struggling after recent territorial losses, the Islamic State will also likely lose influence in 2017.

2) South Sudan

Having already caused immense suffering since its start in 2013, South Sudan’s civil war threatens to spiral even further in 2017. Originally caused by a split between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, the SPLM-IO—Machar’s side—has split. Kiir appointed Taban Deng Gai to replace Machar as Vice President, and his decision to force Machar out of the country has left his supporters feeling unrepresented. The repeated failure of political negotiations has led many actors to see violence as their only route to power. Ethnic divisions have also solidified, and the region of Equatoria in particular has seen increased violence. This combination of factors has led to increasingly dire warnings, with the UN announcing that ethnic cleansing is already underway. The international response has been underwhelming, with the UN unable to come to an agreement on a potential arms embargo.

3) Burma (Myanmar)

The Muslim ethnic minority group, the Rohingya, has long lived in dire conditions, stripped of citizenship and often forced to live in internally displaced people (IDP) camps. Described as the world’s group most at risk of genocide, there is an ever-lingering risk of a spark setting off mass violence. Aung San Suu Kyi, the de facto leader of the country, and the National League for Democracy (NLD) have shown little interest in the Rohingya and seemingly lack the ability to control the military, who is in charge of managing the situation in Rakhine State. Security forces and members of the Rakhine ethnic group have both perpetrated violence against Rohingya, and the October killing of several police officers—with a group of Rohingya accused to be the attackers—has raised tensions. There are also reports that some Rohingya have reacted to their continued subjection through the creation of an insurgency. However, Rohingya know from experience that any violence they may perpetrate would likely lead to retaliation against Rohingya civilians. Reports of a plan among security forces to arm non-Muslim civilians also raise fears of increased violence. Should the situation deteriorate, almost no Burmese actors seem ready to come to the Rohingya’s defense. As the crisis continues, the government must reconsider its approach to the issue, build positive relations between the majority Buddhist and minority Muslim populations, and cease the use of excessive force against civilians, lest they precipitate the growth of a small number of Rohingya insurgents.

Additionally, ethnic groups around the country—such as the eastern Shan, Karen, Kokang, and Kachin, Ta’ang, and Arakan, now in an alliance—are politically sidelined and face violence at the hands of Myanmar government militias, even after Aung San Suu Kyi’s 21-Century Panglong Conference. There is speculation that the NLD is keeping quiet on the military’s blockade of transport and aid in these areas due to pre-election agreements with the military. Tensions and periodic violence seem unlikely to cease in 2017.

4) Sudan

Sudan is primed for significant violence against civilians in 2017, but much of it may remain out of the public spotlight. The Sudanese government has cut off access for journalists and aid workers to areas where it has conducted attacks on civilians, including much of Darfur, and many believe violence in Darfur may be returning towards levels from the height of the conflict. Huge numbers of internally displaced people remain in Sudan with almost no access to aid and few means to support themselves. In addition to Darfur, the Sudanese government continues to bomb civilians in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states. In an extremely alarming development in the conflict, Amnesty International also found evidence of 30 likely chemical attacks against civilians from January to September 2016. There is unlikely to be any large reduction of violence in 2017, as peace talks have broken down and the government remains invested in crushing rebellion. Sudan is also facing reduced international pressure. Many European governments have proved willing to support Sudan in order to prevent refugees from reaching their shores, while the U.S. is rumored to be preparing to lift sanctions.

5) Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Despite recent progress, uncertainty over President Kabila’s willingness to step down as president suggests conflict could escalate in the country in 2017. Kabila is constitutionally mandated to step down after two terms, and his second term was mandated to end in December 2016. After his pasts effort to amend the constitution to allow a third term failed, Kabila implemented various measures to push back his exit date, frequently citing concerns about the country’s readiness to conduct elections. A recent deal brokered by the Catholic Church calls for President Kabila to step down and elections to be held by the end of 2017, but it is unclear whether Kabila will respect the deal. If he does not, violence will likely escalate as hundreds have already been killed in confrontations between police and protesters. Armed groups outside urban areas have also used ongoing political uncertainty to gain influence and territory. Meanwhile, the largest cause of civilian death in the DRC remains insurgencies in the country’s east, though these groups are far less powerful and are more splintered than they were at their peak.

6) Yemen

Though unlikely to escalate significantly, Yemen’s devastating conflict seems likely to grind on. The conflict has moved towards equilibrium with no side strong enough to win, but both also unwilling to give up. On one side of the conflict is the former Yemeni government of Abd Mansur Hadi, heavily backed by a Saudi-led coalition. The Saudis are certain to continue their bombings, as they believe the defeat of the Hadi government would advantage their rival, Iran. The US continues to back the coalition, albeit more tentatively, as a recent decision to block an arms sale signifies. For their part, Hadi’s government has little power but maintains some influence in the south. On the other side, the Houthi rebels maintain control of much of the country, including the capital Sana’a, but are struggling to govern. They remain in an uneasy alliance with former president Ali Abdullah Saleh and receive limited support from Iran. Saudi bombings have frequently hit civilians and the conflict has devastated the economy. Hunger is extremely widespread and the Saudi coalition has repeatedly blocked the delivery of aid, continuously bombing major ports and further threatening aid delivery.

7) Burundi

President Pierre Nkurunziza’s decision to seek what is considered by many to be an unconstitutional third term sparked recent conflict in Burundi. Although he is now securely placed in his third term, the situation is far from resolution. Extrajudicial executions continue and thousands have died throughout the course of the conflict. The conflict has remained primarily political rather than ethnic, but there are signs that violence against Tutsi could increase. The Burundian government’s decision to leave the International Criminal Court suggests that their human rights record will not soon improve, and the recent assassination of a government official also raises tensions. Peace talks have stalled since July, when the government pulled out of the talks. Opposition groups were upset last month when chief mediator, former Tanzania President Benjamin Mkapa, urged them to look toward the 2020 elections, seeming to ignore their concerns about the 2015 election. In this context, talks seem unlikely to resume, as the opposition feels slighted, and Nkurunziza feels that he can retain power with no real resistance. An armed insurgency in exile remains capable of conducting attacks, though it holds relatively little power and is unlikely to seriously threaten Nkurunziza’s government. Still, as long as they are denied political rights there is the possibility that more opposition supporters will choose to use violence.

8) Ethiopia

Ethiopia has suffered significant unrest over the last year after protests emerged in the Oromia region. Originally concentrated on feelings of underrepresentation and marginalization of the Oromo ethnic group, the protests have spread to the Amhara region and have given voice to discontent with the government. Long seen as a champion of an authoritarian development model, Ethiopia has cracked down heavily on the protests and shown few signs of a democratic opening. Amnesty International has found that security forces have killed over 800 people since protests began in November 2015. With the opposition also growing increasingly disillusioned with the potential for peaceful change, potential for violence in 2017 is high.

9) Kenya

August’s elections could very well proceed successfully and represent democratic progress in Kenya, but they also hold significant potential for conflict. President Uhuru Kenyatta will be contested by Raila Odinga in a repeat of the 2013 election. In the 2007 election, Odinga’s defeat led to violence killing around 1,000 people, while the 2013 election remained quite peaceful. It is unclear which path 2017 will take, but there are warning signs that suggest potential violence. Trust in IEBC, the electoral commission, is low, and blows to Kenyatta’s popularity may cause a highly competitive election. Further, despite demand, the Kenyatta government has struggled to provide reforms, and continued police brutality has incited protests and raised fears of a heavy-handed response in the case of post-election protests. In addition to national elections, 47 counties will also hold local elections, and as ethnic tensions in several parts of the country remain high, it will not take much for localized conflict to erupt.

10) Zimbabwe

92-year old President Robert Mugabe’s insistence on staying in power after 36 years in charge threatens to spark conflict in Zimbabwe. 2016 already saw increased resistance to Mugabe, with protests gaining ground in the summer. Youth activists, often using social media to spread messages such as that of previously unknown Pastor Evan Mawawire—the founder of the #ThisFlag movement to end corruption and increase government transparency and accountability—were at the heart of the protests. Police cracked down heavily on protesters, but calls continued to urge Mugabe to step down immediately, rather than wait for elections in 2018 when Mugabe intends to run for re-election. Ongoing economic problems have also damaged the popularity of Mugabe’s government. Still, the potential for Mugabe to be forced from power hinges on a number of uncertainties, including the strengthening of a divided opposition and the military’s loyalty to Mugabe. Two things remain quite a bit more certain: that Mugabe will not cede power easily and many Zimbabweans will wish he would.

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Timmy Hirschel-Burns is a senior at Swarthmore College majoring in Political Science and is STAND’s Policy Coordinator. You can follow him on Twitter at @TimH_B.

Featured photo is by The White Helmets.

This week’s update focuses on Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria, and Burma. An attack on a Shia mosque in Kabul left 27 dead and 50 injured. The formation of a Houthi government in Yemen has alarmed many in the international community regarding the future of Yemen. Aleppo is in crisis after being reclaimed by the Assad regime this week. Civilians have been targeted amidst multiple failed ceasefires, and 39 additional communities across Syria remain under siege.

Middle East and North Africa

Syria

The conflict in Eastern Aleppo escalated in recent week, with Syrian civilians facing mass atrocities at the hands of the Syrian government and its allies during the retaking of the city last week. Constant conflict between the Syrian government and rebels since 2012 has left the Aleppo and its residents in deep despair.

After a three-week pause in the Syrian and Russian bombing of Eastern Aleppo, the government targeted the area with bombs for two weeks. The conflict has had a huge effect on the rebel forces, the Syrian army, and the overall political stability of the Middle East. However, the citizens of Eastern Aleppo have suffered the hardest blows.

During the battle for Aleppo, the UN Human Rights Council received reports that 82 civilians were summarily executed by regime forces last Monday. There were credible reports of whole families with last names associated with the opposition being killed, the entire medical staff at the SAMS (Syrian American Medical Society)-run Al-Hayat Hospital being executed, and White Helmet rescuers being targeted with at least one volunteer being killed by a sniper. Activists and aid workers filmed what they thought may be their final words in a last plea to the world for action.

Nearly 10,000 civilians had been evacuated from Aleppo by Friday morning, when the temporary ceasefire broke down. On Friday afternoon, the New York Times reported that “a convoy of hundreds of evacuees was detained and turned back by pro-government militiamen […] because insurgents in Idlib Province, farther north, were blocking an evacuation of civilians from two villages besieged by rebels.” On Sunday, armed men set at least buses ablaze that were planning to carry evacuating civilians to Idlib from Aleppo, again pausing evacuations.  

Yesterday, the UN Security Council voted to send UN observers to monitor evacuations, with the caveat that they must consult with “interested parties,” which could theoretically give any group on the ground the ability to block UN access to certain areas. In Turkey, the Russian Ambassador was shot by a lone Turkish gunman, who shouted, “God is great! Don’t forget Aleppo! Don’t forget Syria!”, concerning many regarding relations between Russia and Turkey. As reported by the New York Times, the assassination came in the wake of two days of protests by Turks angry over Russia’s role in the Syria conflict, and in particular atrocities in Aleppo.

There are at least 39 communities across Syria under siege, according to a recent Siege Watch report, affecting some 1.3 million people. According to the report, the Syrian government and its allies, including Russia, are responsible “for the majority of existing sieges,” which aim to get communities to surrender by depriving them of food, medical supplies, and, vitally important in the winter, fuel for heating their homes. Many in besieged communities such as Madaya fear for their safety in light of the violence in Aleppo.  

Southeast Asia

Burma

Burmese military forces continue to target the minority Rohingya population. In recent months, 21,000 Rohingya have fled to Bangladesh. The situation is escalating, and last week, it was revealed that the Burmese army has burnt down more than 1,500 homes and buildings in Rohingya villages located in Rakhine State, raped Rohingya women, and conducted extrajudicial killings of Muslims. These claims contradict the information the Burmese government has been providing the public, and the military has also denied the latest claims.

However, recent evidence obtained by Human Rights Watch suggests the Burmese military is guilty of committing mass atrocities. The UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Burma, Yanghee Lee, has commented that the acts are quickly approaching what “we would all agree are crimes against humanity.”

The situation in Rakhine State is dire. As of December 9, only 20,000 people in northern Rakhine have received food, nutrition assistance, or cash, compared to more than 150,000 who were receiving aid before October 9. Fourteen countries, including the United States, have been pressuring Burma to allow humanitarian aid in areas populated primarily by Rohingya.

Meanwhile, Burma continues to be a dangerous place for journalists and dissidents. Areas such as Rakhine State are sealed off to journalists, leaving only local residents to attempt to report on the atrocities. Still, it is not uncommon for residents to receive threats, and on December 13, a local-based journalist in Burma was killed while reporting on illegal logging, which is a huge problem in Burma.

Emerging Conflicts

Afghanistan

Violence in Afghanistan continues to wrack the country as terrorists groups like ISIS continue to target notable minorities such as Shia Muslims. On November 21, a Shia Muslim mosque was attacked in Kabul during a service commemorating the death of Imam Hussein, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad. At least 27 are dead and over 50 injured. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack, which follows a series of high-profile acts of violence committed primarily against the Shia minorities in the country. ISIS and other terrorist organizations in the country previously claimed responsibility for a chain of bombings and shootings across Afghanistan and in parts of neighboring Pakistan. Human Rights Watch has released a report detailing their concerns regarding the lack of success of the Afghani government in providing security to civilians during public gatherings. Security remains a primary concern as sectarian violence continues across the country.

Yemen

Although the Houthi rebels claim that their formation of a government on November 29 does not mean a withdrawal from a basic roadmap to peace in Yemen, many in the international community are alarmed. The United Nations had hoped for the Houthis and factions loyal to Hadi, seen by some as the legitimate President of Yemen, to form a unity government, and for both sides, notably the Houthis, to withdraw from major flashpoints of the conflict. However, continued violence has placed incredible strain on both sides’ willingness to negotiate and come to a common agreement. The establishment of a government led by Houthi loyalists is a setback to prospects for a permanent peace. US Secretary of State John Kerry announced a 48-hour ceasefire in mid-November, seeking to apply pressure on parties to the conflict to stop fighting. Although the Houthi rebels agreed to the ceasefire, Hadi’s forces refused.

While the Saudi-led Coalition accepted a temporary cessation of hostilities, the Yemeni Foreign Minister for Hadi’s government continued to reject the notion of a ceasefire. The UN brokered a similar ceasefire in October, which rapidly broke down near its end, but renewed some hopes of a more permanent settlement. However, within a day, fighting broke out again from both Houthi fighters and fighters loyal to Hadi, notably in the embattled city of Taiz. Doctors Without Borders reported that on the first day of the ceasefire, at least 76 were wounded and 21 were killed in clashes throughout the city through violent acts committed by both sides. The Saudi-led Coalition ultimately refused to renew the ceasefire, citing violations of the ceasefire by the Houthi rebels while the Houthis also accused the Saudi-led Coalition of violations. There appears to be little hope in the near future for a final settlement to the conflict in Yemen, and the consequences for civilians are huge. More than 10,000 have been killed and millions displaced throughout the country, and many continue to suffer from little-to-no access to desperately-needed  humanitarian assistance.

Recent developments continue to reshape the situation in Yemen. The precarious security situation and continued violence in the country was made even more evident when ISIS took responsibility for a suicide bombing on December 18, near the al-Sawlaban military base in Aden, where Yemeni soldiers were lining up to collect their salaries. At least 48 deaths have been reported. Secretary Kerry is on a visit to Saudi Arabia to discuss the war in Yemen, which Saudi has played a key role in through direct military intervention by a Saudi-led coalition. The intervention has attracted significant criticism from members of the international community and human rights organizations as civilian casualties and assaults on civilian facilities such as hospitals have been reported. Groups like Amnesty International have lobbied Washington to block arms deals to Saudi Arabia, asserting that they contribute to the deaths of civilians in Yemen, and the Obama Administration finally responded on December 14 by halting the sale of 400 million dollars in armaments to Saudi Arabia. It appears this was done over concerns regarding civilian casualties. While US officials have said the “precision-guided weapons” in question will no longer be transferred, the security and intelligence relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia will continue, especially as terrorism remains a major issue in the region. Groups like Human Rights Watch acknowledge this as a step in the right direction, though many say it is not enough.

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Ana Delgado is STAND’s Middle East and North Africa Coordinator, focusing mainly on Syria. She is a junior at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, majoring in Political Science and Peace, War, and Defense.

Amala Karri is STAND’s Policy Intern and attends Hunter College High School in New York. She contributed STAND’s Burma Update for this week’s Education News Brief.

Jason Qu is STAND’s Emerging Conflicts Coordinator, focusing today on Yemen and Pakistan. He is a Senior at Bronx High School of Science.