Sudan and South Sudan

Sudan

On April 11, 2019,  after a week of thousands of protestors camping outside the nation’s military headquarters, the Sudanese military announced that President Omar al-Bashir had been arrested and ousted, marking the end of al-Bashir’s 30 year rule as an uncompromising and relentless ruler. On April 12, defense minister Lt. Gen. Awad Mohamed Ahmed Ibn Auf announced he would head a two year transitional period through a military council, with terms including the dissolution of the government and 10PM curfews for all citizens. Increased protests caused Ibn Auf to step down as head of the military council within 36 hours and he was replaced by Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan who lifted certain restrictions including curfews. After episodic violence during the protests, a 10-member delegation of protest organizers met with the military council at the country’s army headquarters in Khartoum. The military has agreed to allow civilian representatives on a supreme council to aid in the governing of Sudan, but refuse to allow a civilian majority out of fear of being overpowered and outvoted. Members of the military council have suggested three civilians and seven soldiers with a maximum of half of the council’s members consisting of civilian representatives. As of May 2, 2019, the Declaration of Freedom and Change Forces (DFCF), a group of opposition leaders, has submitted a draft constitution with proposals for a cabinet and a 120-person legislature during the transitional period. The DFCF is expecting a response from the military within two to three days, leaving the future of Sudan’s governance still up to negotiations.

South Sudan

Since South Sudan’s independence from Sudan in 2011 after a war over oil, religion, and ethnicity, the nation is once again in conflict and looking to commit to peace. As of April 18, 2019, opposition leader Riek Machar postponed the formation of a unified government until safety issues were resolved, as 2016’s peace agreements ended in Machar fleeing gunfire from President Salva Kiir’s troops. Machar’s return would have marked the establishment of a power-sharing government with Machar as vice president and Kiir as President. SPLM-IO, Machar’s rebel group, proposed delaying the formation of a transitional government for six more months as issues such as lacking security control and a unified South-Sudanese army have yet to be addressed.

Great Lakes of Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

In early April, the Democratic Republic of the Congo held gubernatorial elections for its 26 provinces after a two-week-long postponement due to allegations of vote buying among provincial delegates. Before votes were even announced, 11 people were injured in clashes between supporters of newly-elected President Felix Tshisekedi and his predecessor Joseph Kabila in Lubumbashi. On April 11, it was determined that, months after losing the seat to his presidency, Joseph Kabila’s party, Common Front for Congo (FCC), had claimed victory in 16 of the provinces while Tshisekedi’s party won only one province while an opposition faction was successful in one other. (The remaining provinces were either postponed or will require a second round of votes.) With this announcement, Kabila’s party currently holds comfortable majorities in both houses of parliament as well as provincial governorships, thus ensuring that the country has not yet rid themselves of Kabila. As a result of the provincial election results, Al Jazeera has reported that supporters of Tshisekedi took to the streets protesting against the landslide victory of the FCC while simultaneously trying to hold off claims made by Martin Fayulu, candidate in the December election, that the presidential election was the result of a deal brokered between Tshisekedi and Kabila.

April has also marked a deadly month in the DRC as a result of the months-long Ebola outbreak that has plagued the country. More than 1,000 people have died from Ebola in eastern Congo since August, and as of May 4 the number has risen to 1,008. Despite these staggering statistics, however, it was determined by an expert panel of the World Health Organization (WHO) that the crisis would not be declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) as of April 12. Professionals have predicted that this could have deadly consequences as such an announcement is necessary to draw greater attention and funding to fighting Ebola in the country.

Middle East

Yemen

The United States Senate failed to override Donald Trump’s veto of the Yemen War Powers Resolution, a bipartisan measure to end US military support for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, on Thursday, May 2 with a 53-45 vote. Currently, the US provides intelligence and sells arms and ammunition to the coalition, all of which are used to fuel the worsening humanitarian crisis in Yemen. This unfortunate vote comes at a time when over 70,000 people have been killed in the conflict between the Houthi rebels and the Saudi-led coalition since January 2016 and over 12.6 million are in need of drinking water and adequate sanitation services. Cases of cholera are rampant among the millions of Yemeni citizens in need of humanitarian aid, with some areas seeing as many as 2,000 cases or suspected cases of cholera per week. Humanitarian groups have been blocked by fighting, restrictions to access certain areas, and bureaucratic difficulties, making it incredibly difficult to mitigate the worst of the crisis and keeping many Yemeni citizens from receiving lifesaving aid.

After the Stockholm Agreement in December, in which Yemen’s Houthi rebels and its internationally recognized government made concessions with the goal of mitigating conflict, the warring groups agreed to withdraw troops from Hodeidah Hodeidah has been and continues to be a significant port city as it is the main entry for 70% of imports, including humanitarian aid. However, in a press statement released on April 17, the UN Security Council expressed concern that the agreements are not being implemented. Both parties have been urged to follow through on the agreement to de-escalate the conflict, although a disagreement about which group should control Hodeidah has hindered this approach.

Syria

Since the removal of ISIS from Syrian territory, thousands of women and children have fled to refugee camps within the country. With 12,000 women and children now residing within these camps — many of whom are the families of ISIS fighters— their potential repatriation has garnered international attention. In just one camp in northeastern Syria, 2,500 children of ISIS fighters are being held which has prompted the International Committee for the Red Cross to urge that these children be repatriated to their country of origin.

In the past month, Russian and Syrian-led air-raids have recommenced in what was once a demilitarized zone in Northwestern Syria. Schools, health facilities, and residential areas within the “safe-zone” have all been hit. Additionally, the UN regional humanitarian coordinator reported that the area was experiencing the worst barrel bombing in fifteen months. These barrel bombs are found to have killed at least 15 civilians. The increase in attacks is exemplified by the May 5th targeting of three hospitals. Two of the hospitals were put out of service and one, The Nabad Al Hayat Hospital was destroyed.

Reliefweb reports that, since April 21, 231,087 individuals have been displaced and 462,496 remain under attack. Additionally, in this time, at least one hundred civilians have been killed.  In the end of March, there were 6.2 million internally displaced people within the country and 11.7 people in need of humanitarian assistance.

Southeast Asia

Burma

In the past month, the Burmese government has continued to refuse to change its treatment of the Rohingya minority and has initiated a crackdown against critics of the government and national armed forces, refusing the right to freedom of speech and expression. Especially concerning was the Supreme Court’s decision to uphold seven-year prison sentences of two reporters in apparent retaliation for their implication of the armed forces in an investigation of a massacre of Rohingya villagers in Inn Din, Rakhine State. The situation of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh remains concerning as the government is ill-equipped to deal with the massive influx of refugees resulting in food shortages within refugee camps and the mistreatment of Rohingya refugees by Bangladeshi police, as well as the refusal of access to education for refugee children. Bangladesh is hoping to repatriate Rohingya as soon as possible after initial repatriation plans were delayed in November of 2018 but many refuse to return to the country until changes are made.

Throughout the past month, the international community has issued several responses to the persecution of the Rohingya. On April 29th, the EU council extended an embargo on arms and other materials that could be used for internal repression, issued travel bans to Myanmar, and froze assets on 14 top officials connected to serious human rights violations. These extensions will last until April 30, 2020. Efforts to address the persecution of the Rohingya have also been made in the U.S., where a bill proposing sanctions against the Burmese government due to their treatment of the Rohingya was introduced to the Senate on April 12th. Additionally, the status of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh was discussed at length during talks between the Russian and Bangladeshi governments on April 29th. During this discussion, Russia agreed to back Bangladesh in promoting the timely repatriation of the Rohingya by encouraging the Burmese government to create a safe environment for the Rohingya within their own home country. In April, UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Mark Lowcock, head of UN migration agency (IOM) António Vitorino, and UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Filippo Grandi took a joint visit to Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh. After this trip, the officials reiterated their concern for the Rohingya, imploring the Burmese government to end persecution and asking the international community to support the Bangladeshi government in providing aid to Rohingya refugees. The UN also condemned the deportation of 3 Rohingya refugees who were returned to Burma from India due to their lack of documentation.

Emerging Crises

Venezuela 

The situation in Venezuela continues to escalate. On April 30, Guaidó asked Venezuelans to join the “final phase” of the efforts to topple Maduro. On May Day, protestors took to the streets once again to demand Maduro’s resignation and they were violently suppressed with tear gas and rubber bullets. The military did not follow Guaidó’s demands for a revolt, exemplifying Maduro’s strong hold. On May 2, Maduro spoke on national television to frame the military’s support as a victory over the opposition’s attempt at a United States-backed coup.

The US claims that Maduro was prepared to flee if the military did follow Guaidó’s request, saying he had a plane ready to take him to Cuba. Maduro’s Administration denies these claims. These comments are the most recent mention of the United States’ “threatening drumbeat” to overthrow the Maduro regime, which includes talks of military intervention. The increasingly violent protests and suppression combined with threats of foreign intervention and seemingly everlasting economic suffering puts Venezuela in a dire situation, with political violence seeming more likely by the moment.

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Megan Rodgers, who contributed to the Burma section of this brief, is a student at The University of Arkansas. Megan serves on STAND’s Burma and Democratic Republic of Congo Action Committees.

Grace Harris, who contributed to the Sudan section of this brief, is a sophomore at Tampa Preparatory School in Florida, where she serves as the president of her STAND chapter. Grace serves on STAND national’s Sudan and Yemen Action Committees.

Casey Bush, who contributed to the DRC section of this brief, is a graduate student at Clark University and one of STAND’s Student Co-Directors. She is a member of all of STAND’s Action Committees.

Grace Fernandes, who contributed to the Syria section of this brief, is a junior at Simmons University and one of STAND’s Student Co-Directors. She leads STAND’s Indigenous Peoples Action Committee and works with Simmons Amnesty International, an affiliate of STAND.

Caroline Mendoza, who contributed to the Sudan and South Sudan section of this brief, is a junior at Cerritos High School in California, and serves on the STAND Managing Committee. She is a member of the Burma and Yemen Action Committees.

Zachary Gossett, who contributed to the Venezuela section of this brief, is a sophomore at Butler University and a member of STAND’s Managing Committee. He serves on the Indigenous Peoples and Burma Action Committees.

The Northeast region of Nigeria is devastated by famine and food insecurity. The famine in Nigeria is the first man-made famine in the world in over a decade. UNICEF has stated that 75,000 children will die the next year in Borno State, a state roughly the size of West Virginia, if the humanitarian crisis is not urgently addressed. Recent reports show that roughly 4 million people are experiencing food crisis and 2.5 million children have severe cases of malnutrition and are struggling to survive.

While the Northeast has suffered from chronic underdevelopment, these alarming levels of suffering are in large part due to violence caused by Boko Haram, the same group which kidnapped the 276 Nigerian Chibok school girls two summers ago and committed the largest number of atrocities against civilians of any “terrorist” group in the world in 2015. The Nigerian government and humanitarian community have not been able to access civilians living in the areas that Boko Haram controlled for much of the last two years. As the international community regains access to the region, they are finding a humanitarian catastrophe of epic proportions.

As it stands, families do not have the resources to respond to this crisis. As a humanitarian projects manager Michael Mu’azu for Mercy Corps told The Huffington Post, “The carnage becomes more glaring as we gain access to newer areas, and it has become a struggle for those of us in the forefront to comprehend how to help the thousands we come across who need our support.” Families have spent years living in a threatening environment and now must find the strength to face a new kind of threat which attacks the most basic connection between a mother and a child. Field workers are reporting that mothers are now too malnourished to produce breast milk for their own children.

Visibility on this crisis, now, is vital. Lest we repeat: this is a famine, the first man-made, preventable famine in the world in over a decade. Unfortunately, media and politicians alike are preoccupied with a wide range of complex issues, but that is no excuse to let the famine in Nigeria go unchecked.

Photo by Corinna Robbins/Mercy Corps

We must use our combined voice to advocate on behalf of the needs of Nigerian families. We must make it perfectly clear that we as Americans, as parents, as siblings, and most importantly as humans will not tolerate this sort of tragedy. We will not patiently wait as hundreds of thousands of families bury their children. We will not wait for a generation of Nigerians to die.  Our collective morality will not allow for it. Instead we will raise our voice to our communities and our elected officials and we will demand greater funding and political attention for Nigeria. We will demand a concise, efficient, and effective humanitarian response before this crisis escalates even further.

The death of a child is inherently wrong. It is an experience that cannot truly be imagined until someone has lived through it. Many parents, regardless of where they live in this world, feel as though they are put on this earth to protect their child and to ensure their child has everything they need. Parents often equate the loss of a child with a direct failure on their part to act as a guardian. We cannot allow the mothers and fathers of Nigeria to carry this emotional weight alone. Instead, we will listen to their stories and as an international community of caretakers we will walk with them, we will support them, and we will address this crisis.

Take action now: sign this petition to Congress to ensure there’s enough humanitarian assistance to Nigeria to stop this tragedy and continue to raise your voice to #FightTheFamine.

Want to take further action? Call your Senators and Representatives, and mobilize your family and friends to do the same. Now is the moment to make a difference, let’s not pass it by.

Note: Featured Image by Tom Saater/Mercy Corps

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Corie Walsh recently graduated from University of North Carolina, with a degree in Peace, War, and Defense. She does research on issues mass atrocities, civilian protection, and identity-driven conflict. Notably, Corie co-founded a micro-finance program for Ugandan women; started the first collegiate chapter of the UN Shot@Life Campaign; and has engaged in initiatives such as AIESEC, RESULTS, Roosevelt Institute, Conference on World Affairs, and Beyond Conflict. She can be reached at coriewalsh@gmail.com.

Burundi erupted into protest following President Nkurunziza’s controversial bid for a third term on April 28. He was appointed as a candidate by the ruling party, CNDD-FDD, in April and in the following month, the Constitutional Court ruled that Nkurunziza was allowed to stand for a third term–a decision which resulted in massive protests and an attempted government coup. Most argue that the decision by the court was coerced and that it conflicts with the Arusha Accords that ended the twelve-year civil war. Protests left around 100 dead and more than 100,000 displaced. On July 21st, Nkurunziza was elected to his third term as president with 69 percent of the vote.

As a Burundian, the recent controversy and possible ethnic violence in Dr. Elavie Ndura’s home country is personal. She expressed, “When I talk about ethnicity, it is real. I have focused my entire professional career on education.” She outlined the long history of ethnicity in Burundi. From 1962-1992, divisions set by the Belgian colonial authority remained, leaving the minority Tutsi population in power. In 1993, the country hosted its first multiparty election. The first Hutu president, Melchior Ndadaye, was elected by the civilian population only to be overthrown and assassinated three months later, resulting in a civil war that lasted until the 2005 Arusha Accords.

In order to ensure that interethnic violence doesn’t erupt, Ndura argued that the Arusha Accords must be upheld, a concerted effort must be taken to decrease the gap between the elite and the community, political leaders must have the interests of the community at heart rather than their self-interest, and education must be used to reintegrate the concept of ubuntu or “human kindness” into the society.

Mike Jobbins, Director of Global Affairs for Search for Common Ground, outlined three observations on the conflict in Burundi. To begin with, Jobbins noted the importance of unyielding poverty in Burundi and significant food scarcity, which is not expected to improve dramatically by 2050. Under these circumstances, he believes it unreasonable to suggest that Burundi can exist without political conflict in the near future. First, regional actors must help find an agreeable solution to the conflict, which the US can support by working with the newly appointed special envoy to the Lakes Region, Tom Perriello. In the long-term, a Truth and Reconciliation Committee must be established to address recent political violence, and the country must commit to increasing food security.  

Ms. Alissa Wilson, Public Education and Advocacy Coordinator for Africa for the American Friends Service Committee, expressed that the success of AFSC in Burundi was encouraged by communities engaging in dialogue and by AFSC engaging religious leaders to work for peacebuilding.

Wilson argued that the U.S. should revitalize the peace process by working with Tom Perriello to re-engage civil society groups to promote reconciliation and allocating more funds to conflict prevention rather than committing funds after violence has erupted. According to the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, “investing early to prevent conflicts from escalating into violent crises is, on average, 60 times more cost effective than intervening after violence erupts.”

Like many of his peers, Steve McDonald of the Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars stressed the importance of working with civil society groups to stem the violence and promote reconciliation in order to prevent a possible genocide prompted by inter-ethnic violence. In addition, accountability must be upheld with the establishment of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission, and Nkurunziza should be informed by regional actors that he has violated international agreements. All the while, the United States should ensure democratic elections in 2020.

Many of the speakers insisted on the importance of upholding the Arusha Accords and utilizing local NGOs and civil society groups to promote establishment of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission. Some were surprised that despite the country’s history of ethnic violence, the country did not fracture along those lines. In order to find a sustainable peace in Burundi, we must carefully consider both short-term and long-term solutions to the conflict.

Burma has been hit by a monsoon and massive flooding. More than 150,000 people have been affected and 27 people have been confirmed dead, although the actual figure is probably significantly higher. Humanitarian aid delivery has faced a number of hurdles, as many victims are in isolated regions and continued rains make it difficult to travel. President Thein Sein and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi have both visited badly-affected regions. The government is particularly motivated to respond quickly since the military government in 2008 faced heavy criticism for its slow response to Cyclone Nargis, in which 140,000 people died. However, as the storm headed towards Rakhine state, it is reported that Buddhists were evacuated while Rohingya were not, and Rohingya are yet to receive assistance.

Close to 7,000 prisoners were given presidential pardons and released on July 30th. The group included journalists, Chinese loggers, and members of the former military government. However, an estimated 158 political prisoners remain imprisoned.

Speaker of the Union Parliament and leader of the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) Shwe Mann has said that he is confident that his party will win. He also said that the USDP will behave fairly in the election. The government’s attempts to seek a ceasefire with ethnic rebels have not gone so well, however. The most recent round of peace negotiations in Rangoon ended this week, having made little progress. The United Nationalities Federal Council, the major coalition of ethnic leaders, has called on the government to stop offensives against ethnic armed groups and do more to come to an agreement.

Central African Republic (CAR)

Although levels of violence are significantly below their peak, violence continues in CAR. In Markounda, a northwestern town 330 miles north of Bangui, ex-Seleka rebels and militants in a group called Revolution-Justice clashed and at least 26 people were killed. Fighting in Bangui also turned deadly, this time when UN peacekeepers attempted to carry out an arrest warrant. Rebel forces opened fire, killing one peacekeeper and injuring eight.

Amnesty International has released a new report on Muslims in western CAR. The report finds that Muslims often have to hide their religion or are forced to convert to Christianity with death threatened as the alternative. The UN has also pointed to the humanitarian crisis in CAR.  The international community has only funded 31% of CAR’s declared need for humanitarian aid, and the UN has warned that Central African civilians will face massive suffering unless this figure is increased.

Preparations for this fall’s elections have begun, with many individuals declaring their candidacies. So far, 30 people have announced their intention to run for President.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Gubernatorial elections for the DRC’s new provinces have been pushed to October 6th from their originally scheduled date of August 31st. Preparations for national elections are also in progress. The National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) has been examining voter rolls, but they have warned of anomalies on the lists, including duplicate voters and already-registered voters lacking sufficient information. The Catholic Church has said that it supports the political dialogue planned to precede the election. However, it has said that this dialogue should not interfere with the election schedule and reiterated its opposition to constitutional changes to allow President Kabila a third term.  Many Congolese are Catholic and the Church’s voice is very influential in Congolese society.

6,400 citizens have fled their homes in Lubero, North Kivu, in response to FDLR violence. UNOCHA said that most have been able to find refuge in neighboring areas.

Jean-Bertrand Ewanga, secretary-general of the opposition party Union for the Congolese Nation (UNC), has been released from Kinshasa’s Makala prison after almost a year. He was arrested for insulting the President last year during a protest opposing Kabila’s proposed third term, and the UNC and many other members of the opposition denounced the charges as politically motivated.

South Sudan

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD) most recent peace proposal, which was released in late June, has not been well received by the South Sudanese government. President Salva Kiir said July 30th that he would not sign the agreement. Army Chief of Staff General Paul Malong Awan, who recently gave orders in Western Equatoria state to shoot anyone resisting the military’s commands, also expressed his displeasure with the IGAD proposal. President Kiir said it was unlikely they would soon come to an agreement, although the South Sudanese government is going to release its own peace plan for the conflict once peace talks reconvene in Addis Ababa. This plan will not allow former Vice-President Riek Machar to share the presidency with Kiir, one of the main reasons for their opposition to the IGAD plan. US Special Envoy to Sudan and South Sudan Donald Booth said patience is running out with the warring parties and urged them to quickly stop the war.

A joint report by World Vision, Save the Children, Intersos, and CARE found that 400,000 displaced children, half of all displaced South Sudanese children, are not in school. Humanitarian aid is also struggling, and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has blamed restrictions from the South Sudanese government for delays in delivery.

The South Sudanese government has said it will push to strengthen its relationship with Sudan. The countries have had many disputes since South Sudan’s secession in 2011.

Sudan

Amnesty International has released a report accusing Sudan of war crimes in South Kordofan. The report finds that Sudan launched hundreds of shells and bombs, including cluster bombs, against civilians between January and April, killing at least 35 people.

President Omar al-Bashir will lead a meeting that will include opposition parties to discuss the national dialogue. Sudan’s Vice-President said that the government will meet the demands that are required to ensure the participation of opposition parties. President Bashir also said that his government is committed to finding a negotiated solution to the conflict in South Kordofan and the Blue Nile. The African Union’s chief negotiator, former South African president Thabo Mbeki, is travelling to Khartoum this week to discuss peace negotiations and the national dialogue.  Meanwhile, Minni Minnawi, leader of a faction of the Darfuri rebel group the Sudan Liberation Movement, has called on the US to do more to protect Darfur.

President Bashir is reportedly planning on travelling to New York to speak at the UN in September. He is indicted by the ICC for war crimes and genocide, and his attempt to speak at the UN in 2013 was unsuccessful.

Syria

Soldiers trained in the US Train and Equip Program have finally taken to the battlefield. Fifty-four soldiers entered the fighting. Recent reports have said that they were quickly defeated and some were killed or captured by Jabhat al-Nusra, which the Department of Defense denies. While the forces are intended to fight ISIS, President Obama has authorized the use of airpower to support the troops if they are attacked by other rebels or the Assad regime. However, the monitoring group Airwars has found that US airstrikes against ISIS have killed at least 459 civilians over the last year. The US has only acknowledged two civilian deaths.

Syrian regime forces backed by Hezbollah have launched a counteroffensive against rebels in Hama province. The rebels, led by Jabhat al-Nusra, were pushing towards coastal Latakia province, a stronghold of the Assad regime. More than 100 fighters have been killed.

UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura has invited parties to the conflict to participate in dialogues intended to produce a peace framework for the conflict. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has said he is prepared to convene a major conference to support the framework if parties are able to come to an agreement.

Emerging Conflicts: Nigeria

After a recent resurgence in violence from Boko Haram, there have been some successes against the militant group. Most notably, the Nigerian military reported that it rescued 178 people held captive by Boko Haram, 101 of which were children.  It is unclear whether any of the captives were captured in the Chibok attack that sparked the Bring Back Our Girls campaign. The Nigerian military also reported it had killed 20 Boko Haram soldiers in Dikwa, while the Chadian military said it killed 117 Boko Haram fighters near Lake Chad. Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari recently fired a number of generals, but he has appointed a new general to head a multinational force combatting Boko Haram.

However, Boko Haram’s attacks are far from over. Just days after the captives were rescued, Boko Haram killed eight and kidnapped an estimated 100 people in Cameroon. It has continued to perpetrate many attacks, often through suicide bombings. It also conducted a raid in Adamawa state on July 24th, killing 25 people.  In total, Boko Haram killed at least 178 civilians between July 18th and July 31st.

The election has been set for November 8th.  It is Burma’s first open general election in 25 years.  The incumbent Union Solidarity and Democracy Party, led by President Thein Sein, will be contested by the National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi.  Parliament recently voted against removing a Constitutional clause that bars her from becoming President, but despite this Aung San Suu Kyi has continued campaigning.

Negotiations between the Burmese government and ethnic rebels in Thailand made some progress, with chief peace negotiator Aung Min saying it was possible a deal could be struck.  The parties will meet again in a few weeks.  The Burmese government also may have quite a few more years of Thein Sein as President, as he has said he will consider a second term.

The military has engaged in multiple clashes.  In Karen State, government troops fought members of the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army, while in Shan State unknown rebels attacked an army outpost.  In Rangoon, military MPs have argued strongly against a proposed constitutional amendment that would allow state parliaments to choose chief ministers.  Efforts to reduce military power also took a hit as five student leaders who led protests against the military influence in Parliament were arrested.  In Rakhine State, the military continues to use Rohingya in forced labor.  While a UN Human Rights Council resolution sought to bring attention to this and other human rights abuses of Rohingya, the Burmese government has rejected the proposal.

Central African Republic (CAR)

Unidentified gunmen unsuccessfully attempted to take over CAR’s main radio station.  In the middle of the night, a dozen men surrounded the station, scaled the fence, and broke into the radio station.  However, they were repelled by security forces.  It is believed they wanted to take over the radio station to make a political statement over radio, but it is unknown what political beliefs they held.

French investigators have left for the Central African Republic, where they will meet with children accusing French peacekeepers of sexual abuse.  Over a dozen French peacekeepers are being investigated for allegations of sexually abusing children in exchange for food in early 2014.  French authorities were informed of the abuse in July 2014, but the investigation is still in progress.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

The United States has appointed Tom Perriello as its new Special Envoy to the Great Lakes Region of Africa.  He succeeds Russ Feingold, who left the position in February.  Perriello does not have experience in the region, but he has worked on transitional justice projects in Sierra Leone, Afghanistan, Kosovo, and Darfur.  He was a Democratic representative in the House from 2008 to 2010.

In Ituri, the Ituri Patriotic Resistance Force (FPRI) killed a woman and a 13-year-old girl and raped three others.  This follows another attack from the militia last Tuesday.  In Goma, two people were killed and multiple others wounded in a series of attempted robberies by bandits, who have since been captured.

Government spokesperson Lambert Mende has suggested that the government of the DRC would be open to MONUSCO and FARDC working together in operations against the FDLR.  Efforts broke down earlier this year after MONUSCO objected to the inclusion of several generals with records of human rights abuses in FARDC forces.  The UN has called for a greater police presence in the DRC.  At the moment, there is only one police officer for every 700 people, and they are located disproportionately in urban areas.

South Sudan

Government forces and rebels each had multiple ups and downs this week.  The South Sudanese army reclaimed Malakal, the strategically important capital of Upper Nile state, a week after losing it to rebels.  Upper Nile state is rich in oil, but in Unity state, rebels allied with Riek Machar regained control of Tharjath oil field.  In Northern Bahr el Ghazal, rebels took over an administrative headquarters, only to leave shortly afterwards.  In Lakes state, there was communal violence unrelated to the conflict between Kiir and Machar, killing 15 people.

One thing the South Sudanese government and rebels can agree on this week is their unhappiness with the actions of the UN.  A UN report accused the SPLA of, among other human rights abuses, raping and burning girls in Unity state.  However, the South Sudanese embassy in Kenya accused the UN of bias, while Justice Minister Paulino Wanawila also rejected the allegations.  Rebel General James Koang has objected to the sanctions placed upon him by the UN Security Council, calling instead for justice and saying the sanctions will not affect him or the war.

Newly released figures show that 730,000 South Sudanese have fled to other countries since the civil war began, with Ethiopia the most frequent destination.  Over 150,000 people are sheltering in UN bases.  However, the war shows few signs of ending.  Riek Machar has said the war will last as long as Kiir is President and called on him to resign immediately.  There may be some promise in the G10, as the group of former political detainees has said that military action will not resolve the conflict and that they are trying to bridge differences between the two parties.

Sudan

US Special Envoy to Sudan Donald Booth will visit the country by the end of July.  He will discuss normalizing relations between the countries and ending sanctions on Sudan.  Sudanese Foreign Minister Ibrahim Ghandour has said he hopes the talks are based on a new approach as compared to past talks.  Ghandour also met with the African Union Special Envoy to Sudan to discuss the peace talks.

The ruling National Congress Party has said that it met with unnamed opposition parties in an attempt to convince them to participate in the national dialogue.  However, rebels in the SPLM

-N have reiterated their desire for a new peace process, saying the current one only suits the interests of the Sudanese government.

The Sudanese government will deploy a joint police and army force to East Darfur.  They said that recent tribal violence prompted the force, which will attempt to restore security to the area.

Syria

Syrian rebels led by al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra battled government forces in Aleppo, which is held by the Assad regime.  Rebels initially made advances and took important positions, but since have been fought back.  ISIS took back Ain Issa after several weeks of Kurdish control, only to lose it back several days later.  The town is 30 miles from ISIS’s capital, Raqqa.

The US-led coalition launched heavy strikes on Raqqa over the weekend, killing ten ISIS fighters.  However, there are also reports that eight civilians were killed in the strikes.  This week President Obama said that the US would step up its campaign against ISIS and its support to moderate rebels.  It was revealed later this week that the US’s “train and equip” program, at a cost of $500 million, has only trained 60 rebels.  The process has been slowed by attempts to vet rebels before permitting them to join the program, but defense officials maintain the program will be expanded to meet their targets.

The Syrian government has taken a $1 billion loan from ally Iran.  Iran has already loaned significant funds from Iran, as the Syrian government’s budget and economy has been hard hit by the conflict.  They aren’t the only ones suffering from the conflict, and new figures show that 4 million Syrians are refugees, making it the largest refugee crisis in 25 years.

Emerging Conflicts: El Salvador

El Salvador has been wracked by extensive violence as gangs fight among themselves and with police or other government forces.  The government lacks control of much of the country, with many areas dominated by gangs, particularly the Barrio 18 and MS-13 gangs.  The government had been in a truce with gangs for a year, with imprisoned gang members transferred to lower-security prisons and less violence between the parties.  However, the Salvadoran government broke the truce and launched a crackdown on gangs.  The crackdown has in many ways backfired, as there have been few victories against the gangs and the gangs have responded by stepping up violence.  The government has announced plans to further escalate the fight against the gangs, but there also might be hope through the promise of civilian self-protection strategies.

677 murders took place in June, 641 in May, and there have been over 3,000 in 2015.  This is a 55% increase in murders from the same period last year and is El Salvador’s worst violence since the civil war.  More civilians were killed in May in El Salvador than in ISIS-controlled Iraq.  Salvadoran civilians face constant risks.  They can be murdered for going into territory of a different gang than the one that controls their home neighborhood, having witnessed a crime, or just being suspected of assisting a rival gang or the police.  As many as 280,000 people have been internally displaced by the violence, and in lack of safe options, many have also attempted to escape to the US.

On Wednesday, 22 people were killed and another 15 wounded when the Burmese Army shelled a rebel military academy in Laiza, a city in Burma’s northern Kachin State. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA), which runs the military academy and is headquartered in Laiza, has been fighting the Burmese Army since a ceasefire agreement broke down in June of 2011. The Burmese Army has apologized for the loss of life and claims their attack was “unintentional”. Instead, the Burmese Army said they wanted to “send a warning” to the KIA for a recent rebel attack on government troops building a road 70 km south of Laiza. To read more about the ongoing struggle between the Kachin and Burmese government, click here.

Central African Republic (CAR)

Sectarian violence has rapidly increased in a town in southeastern CAR, displacing thousands according to the UN. Attacks taking place on 17 and 18 November between communities in Zémio, a town near the Central African Republic’s border with South Sudan, mark the ‘first major inter-community incident in the region’ since the crisis began in 2012, according to the United Nations’ humanitarian relief office. On 20 November, fighting between members of the mostly Christian and animist Anti-balaka militia and UN peacekeeping forces left six dead and around ten injured in Cantonnier, a town near the Cameroon border. As fighting continues, faith leaders in CAR have called for an end to the sectarian violence. The Catholic archbishop of Bangui, a Muslim imam, and a Protestant minister announced an interfaith initiative ‘to foster dialogue and social cohesion’ on 10 November.

Reports emerged that the Séléka rebel alliance has taken control of a mine in the village of Ndassima, located in eastern CAR. While all legal trade in diamonds from CAR was stopped over 18 months ago by the Kimberley Process, an international agreement meant to prevent trade in conflict diamonds, trade in gold has continued largely uninhibited. As one miner put it, “Gold is always easier to sell. The control on diamonds is much stricter”. And while the Kimberley Process has stopped legal diamond trade with CAR, diamond smuggling continues.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

On Friday, November 7, a Congolese military court convicted Jerome Kakwavu, a general in the Congolese army (FARDC) and former rebel fighter, of war crimes. The court sentenced Kakwavu to 10 years in jail. The court found Kakwavu guilty of multiple counts of rape, murder, and torture, and of failing to take necessary measures to prevent human rights abuses by soldiers under his command. The court’s finding makes Kakwavu the highest-ranking Congolese military official to face a war crimes conviction since the start of the First Congo War in 1996.

Reports of an M23 comeback continue to circulate amongst the group’s military and civilian leaders in Rwanda and Uganda. In November 2013, the UN and the Congolese military defeated the March 23 movement. The rebel group occupied the North Kivu provincial capital of Goma for nearly two years prior to the defeat. Dissatisfied with the Congolese government’s refusal to provide amnesty, the M23 reportedly plans to again mount attacks in eastern Congo. The group’s weak current capacity, however, raises doubts about the validity of these claims.

On November 11, Justin Banaloki, military leader of the rebel group Front de Resistance Patriotique d’Ituri (FRPI) and known as “Cobra Mtata,” surrendered to Congolese authorities. Despite the surrender of Banaloki and former FRPI leader Colonel Adirodhu, the whereabouts of other high-ranking FRPI leaders remain speculative. The FRPI militia is based in Ituri province and remains one of the longest-standing armed groups in eastern DRC.

On Monday, November 10, UN peacekeepers opened fire on Congolese civilians in the town of Mbau, shooting and killing one man. The troops opened fire following a dispute over motorcycles blocking the passage of UN vehicles. The next day, activists staged a protest against the actions of the troops. One protester was killed and two others injured during the demonstrations. The dispute follows a period of heightened tension between the UN force in the DRC (MONUSCO) and Congolese civil society, largely resulting from MONUSCO’s inability to stop attacks by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a Ugandan rebel group.

Sudan ** trigger warning: sexual violence **

The Sudanese army has increased its presence on the South Sudan border. There have been reports of an increase in tanks, armored trucks, artillery, and other heavy weaponry. This comes a week after escalating violence along the border towns of Sudan and South Sudan where at least thirty-five people have been killed. Amid growing concerns of escalating hostilities, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir flew to Sudan earlier this month to ensure that the 2012 cooperation agreement would remain intact.

Additionally, the United Nations Security Council has urged Sudan to allow the joint UN-African Union peacekeeping force to investigate the recent rapes in the Darfur region.  This comes after Sudan closed the Darfur region to further investigation despite outcries from international human rights groups. After being asked to give access on 19 November, Sudan again denied the UN access to Darfur. This leaves the victims without any due process of law or access to counseling.

South Sudan

Last week in South Sudan, the UN demanded the release of one of its staff members who was abducted. The staff member worked for the World Food Programme and was last seen being escorted from an airport check-in queue by armed gunmen. The UN stressed that attacks on humanitarian workers jeopardize aid efforts. As World Food Programme country chief Joyce Luma said, “To bring urgently needed food assistance to hungry people affected by conflict, our staff are working in difficult and dangerous conditions, but we cannot also ask them to risk their lives to do so.”

Additionally, UN agencies have begun to relocate 15,000 South Sudanese refugees within Ethiopia. The refugees have been stranded for several months at a way station in western Ethiopia due to the unexpected flooding of the refugee camp they were meant to be moved to. They are now being moved in shifts to a camp roughly 300 kilometers away from the way station. More than 190,000 South Sudanese refugees have sought safety in Ethiopia since December 2013. Ethiopia is also Africa’s largest provider to refugees, currently housing 600,000 displaced persons.

Finally, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir is currently engaged in bilateral talks with Egypt. These talks are said to mostly focus on trade and investment in agriculture, health, power, electricity, and education. While South Sudan’s defence minister recently struck a military cooperation agreement with Egypt, it remains unclear whether or not the country will seek military assistance from Egypt.

Syria

The Syrian regime has this past week continued its escalation of airstrikes on rebel held areas. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the Syrian air force in the last month launched about 1,592 strikes across Syria, killing at least 396. The observatory writes that the attacks, coming in the form of air raids and barrel bombs, have injured at least 1500 civilians, and “struck areas in the Hama, Deraa, Idlib, Aleppo and Quneitra provinces as well as the Damascus countryside.”

Aleppo also suffered further aerial bombardment earlier this week, with the AP reporting that Syrian aircraft launched crude explosives on the Qabr al-Inglizi neighbourhood that resulted in the deaths of 14 people. Children were among the dead. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which relies on on-the-ground activists for key information, said the death toll could still rise, as people still buried under rubble remained unaccounted for. The bombs reportedly struck an ambulance and several microbuses. Despite condemnation from human rights groups and the U.N. Security Council resolution banning their indiscriminate use, the Syrian government has continuously used barrel bombs in densely populated civilian areas throughout the course of the civil war. This tactic is condemned as the bombs are wildly inaccurate, and have left thousands of civilians dead.

Syrian Kurds have made new gains in the fight against ISIS in Kobane, according to the AFP. Hours after a series of airstrikes by the US-led coalition on ISIS positions in central Kobane, Syrian Kurds in the form of The Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) staged a “special operation” in which they captured six buildings used by ISIS. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that the Kurds “captured a large amount of weapons and ammunition, including RPG (rocket-propelled grenade) rounds, light weapons, sniper guns and thousands of heavy machinegun rounds.” Kobane has become a symbol of resistance to ISIS, who have instituted radical interpretations of Islamic law in the areas they have captured. However, Syrian Kurdish troops have been fighting alongside Iraqi Peshmerga forces and Syrian rebels that have defensively bolstered the town’s defences, backed by US-led strikes on ISIS positions. It is estimated that ISIS now controls 20 percent of the town, down from the high of 50.

Emerging Conflicts: Israel-Palestine

Tensions are rising quickly in Jerusalem after attacks and deaths on both sides.  While anger remained from this summer’s violence, controversy has erupted over al-Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock.  The sites are holy to both Jews and Muslims and have traditionally been controlled by the Palestinians.  Jews have been allowed to visit the sites but not to pray there, and about a month ago the Israeli government shut the sites to all visitors.  After suggestions that conservative Jews be allowed to pray at the sites, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas accused Israel of igniting a “religious war”.

There have been a number of incidents in the last month.  About 12 Palestinians have been killed, including a protester shot by Israeli forces in the occupied West Bank.  Five Israelis and a foreign visitor have been killed in several attacks, including a knife attack and attacks from Palestinians driving cars. The attacks seem to be directed by individuals, rather than a coordinated by any specific group. On Monday, 17 November, Palestinian bus driver Yusuf Hassan al-Ramouni was found hanged.  Israeli authorities deemed his death a suicide but many Palestinians, including his family, believe he was attacked by Israelis, citing the bruises found on his body.

On Tuesday, 18 November two Palestinian men entered a Jerusalem synagogue and killed five people with guns and a meat cleaver before being shot and killed by police. The Palestinians are believed to have been motivated by the controversy over Jerusalem’s religious sites. Four of the killed were rabbis while one was a police officer. Mahmoud Abbas condemned the killings while Hamas praised them. Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu promised a strong response. After the attack, Israel approved the construction of 78 new settlement homes, which are widely considered illegal under international law.  Israel also fired tear gas at protesters in East Jerusalem and demolished the family homes of the two attackers.   Still, this violence does not rival that of this summer.  2,104 Gazans were killed, including 1,462 civilians according to the UN.  66 Israeli soldiers and 7 civilians were killed.

Burma

US President Barack Obama made his second official visit to Burma last week to attend the 25th annual Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) regional summit help for the first time in Burma’s capital, Naypyidaw. There, Obama praised Burma’s President Thein Sein’s “real” efforts to democratize the country. However, many people, including opposition leader and Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, have expressed concern over the United States’ positive perception of very limited reforms in the former military dictatorship. According to the White House, the United States has provided over $375 million to Burma since relieving economic sanctions in 2012 in targeting five key areas: national reconciliation, democratic institutions, economic development, health, resilient communities, and regional cooperation.

While in the country, both Obama and UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon criticized the Burmese government’s treatment of the Rohingya. The Burmese government refuses to acknowledge the existence of the Rohingya and instead refers to them as illegal Bengali migrants. Moreover, the Burmese government has also proposed sending Rohingya to detention camps if they refuse to officially identify themselves as Bengali. To read more about the Rohingya and the significance of official US and UN recognition, click here.

Finally, Burma and China signed a bilateral trade agreement on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit which aimed to increase rice exports from northeastern Burma to southwestern China.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

The links between the conflict-minerals trade and profits for militia groups in eastern DRC are well-documented. However, in the face of reduced profits due in part to conflict-free mineral certification mechanisms, rebel militias in the Congo are increasingly turning to wildlife trafficking as a source of revenue. The Okapi Forest Reserve reports a 40% reduction in its elephant population from 2009-2014. In late October, the UN released an urgent appeal for resources to combat elephant poaching by militia groups in Garamba national park. During the past 3 years, rebel militias murdered 30 park rangers in Virunga national park alone. Rebel militias also reportedly attempt to undercut the local eco-tourism industry by offering wildlife tours at reduced rates, using revenue to continue the purchase of weapons.

In late October, military leaders ousted Blaise Compaoré, President of Burkina Faso, from power. Coming after several years of democratic upheaval in many parts of North Africa and the Middle East, the coup raises questions about the durability of autocratic rule in sub-Saharan Africa. In an interview with Voice of America, Congolese information minister Lambert Mende rejects the idea that Congolese President Joseph Kabila will be subject to the same fate if he chooses to run for a third term in 2016. Mende said, “Nobody has heard President Kabila saying that he’s going to change the constitution. As a democratic country, we are having an intellectual and political debate about the changing or not changing the constitution…Burkina is Burkina and Congo is Congo.”

Members of the Congolese police force (PNC) arrested twenty protesters on 1 November. The protesters took to the streets outside the UN headquarters in Kinshasa to demand a national dialogue aimed at ending two decades of violence in eastern Congo. Activists also expressed frustration at the prospect of a proposed amendment to the Congolese constitution that would permit President Kabila to run for a third term. All detainees have since been released.

In the wake of a series of Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) attacks on civilian communities in the city of Beni, located in the Congo’s eastern North Kivu province, the UN Stabilization Mission in the DR Congo (MONUSCO) announced last week that the mission had arrested 200 individuals suspected of participation in the assaults. The mission also reported seizures of bombs, radios, weapons, and other military equipment from the ADF. Between 2 October and 17 October, ADF forces murdered nearly 120 civilians in North Kivu. Congolese Defense Minister Alexandre Luba Ntambo spoke to civilians in the province on 5 November, urging community members not to form self-defense militias against the ADF. Ntambo said that reactionary defense militias would only “further complicate the already fragile situation” in Beni.

Two teams of Congolese military (FARDC) personnel received a 10-day training from the UN on detecting and disposing of arms caches. FARDC plans to launch an operation entitled “Weapons Free Masisi” this month to collect weapons from illegal armed groups operating in Masisi territory, including the M-23, Alliance of Patriots of Free and Sovereign Congo (APCLS) and local Mayi-Mayi militia groups.

Sudan

After much delay, peace talks between government forces and rebel groups have resumed in Sudan. The chief of the African Union stated that he was hopeful that negotiations would be finalized between rebels and the government very soon. Fighting has broken out many times in the southern part of the country near the South Sudanese border. Negotiations on the issues in Darfur have been scheduled for later this month. The conflicts in the southern part of the country have already displaced tens of thousands of Sudanese.

Reports emerged on Wednesday of a Sudanese attack on South Sudan’s Upper Nile State. The strike follows a similar one two weeks earlier in which at least 35 people were killed. The newest raid killed seven and displaced many more. The South Sudanese army believes that the Sudanese government is behind the latest attack because they used warplanes, which the South Sudanese rebels do not have access to.

Finally, 1.2 million Sudanese have been registered to vote for Sudan’s 2015 elections. Sudan’s National Election Commission (NEC) has reported that 1.2 million new voters have been registered for the 2015 Sudanese election cycle. However, opposition parties are refusing to participate in the elections, calling instead for a transitional government and a national conference to resolve the long-standing conflicts in the South Kordofan and Darfur regions. The NEC, however, has rejected any postponement of the electoral process, claiming that delaying elections would cause a “constitutional vacuum”.

South Sudan

Last week in South Sudan, several polio cases were confirmed by the World Health Organization. The WHO stated that these cases are most likely because of the lack of vaccination programs in South Sudan. The organization stated that it is difficult to maintain high rates of vaccinations in conflict zones, and that it is extremely dangerous to have a few cases because they can spread very quickly.

Additionally, there have been reports that the conflict has now hit three different states in South Sudan. Both the rebels and the government have blamed each other for the continued fighting as it continues to spread to more and more regions. As the fighting escalates, the amount of killed and displaced Sudanese continues to rise.

The Guardian reports that the upcoming generation of South Sudanese boys are eager to fight in the civil war. Many young men have expressed their hope that they would soon be old enough to fight alongside the rebels or the government.

Syria

The Free Syrian Army (FSA) has rejected the possibility of a UN-mandated Aleppo truce with the Assad regime. According to Al Jazeera, the FSA’s rejection of the plan to suspend fighting in Syria’s second largest city, and its most populous prior to the civil war, stems from concerns that such a plan will only help the Assad regime. Zaher al-Saket, FSA military commander in Aleppo, explained their logic: “We [the Free Syrian Army] learned not to trust the Assad regime because they are cunning and only want to buy time. We saw what happened in Homs and we will never accept the same scenario in Aleppo.” The Syrian government had allegedly responded differently towards overtures regarding an Aleppo truce, with Staffan de Mistura, UN special envoy to Syria, saying on Tuesday the government had responded with “constructive interest” to the UN proposal. However, activists claimed that Assad’s forces resumed launching barrel bombs on Aleppo’s al-Marjeh neighbourhood just a day later.

Syrian authorities have reportedly detained Louday Hussein, leader of Building the Syrian State party and longtime opposition activist, who has been detained twice before, and this time faces a number of what his party calls a number of “ready made charges”, including “weakening national sentiment and weakening the morale of the nation.” The Syrian Network for Human Rights estimates that up to 85,000 people are currently being held by the Syrian regime without any just cause. In captivity, prisoners face numerous human rights abuses, including torture and the continual threat of death. The Assad regime’s use of arbitrary and inhumane imprisonment tactics is well noted, and a UN panel last year accused the Assad regime of committing a crime against humanity by making people “systematically vanish.”

Emerging Conflicts: Nigeria

Violence has continued to wrack Nigeria, with radical Islamist group Boko Haram the main instigator. On 10 November, a suicide attack outside a school killed at least 48 people and wounded at least 79. Students were gathered for an assembly at a government boarding school in Potiskum when an attacker, disguised as a student, launched a suicide bombing. How many of the dead were students has not yet been determined. Although Boko Haram is widely suspected, they have not claimed responsibility for the attack. This follows an attack on 3 November in Potiskum when a suicide bomber blew himself up in a crowd of Shi’ite Muslims at a religious ceremony. The bombing killed 15 people and afterwards Nigerian soldiers killed six people in their response to the attack.

On 12 November, a female suicide bomber blew herself up at a college in Kontagora. At least three people were killed. Although Kontagora is far from the northeastern part of the country where Boko Haram usually operates, it is still suspected to be the perpetrator.

The government has suffered a number of embarrassing defeats in its fight against Boko Haram.  It announced a ceasefire with Boko Haram on 17 October. This would have ended fighting and led to the release of over 200 girls kidnapped earlier this year. However, there were a number of Boko Haram attacks in the days following the announcement. Nigerian officials continued to maintain that there was a ceasefire, but two weeks after the announcement of the ceasefire Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau announced that there had been no ceasefire and the girls would not be released. Then, on 14 November, Boko Haram took control of the town of Chibok, where they kidnapped the girls in April. The US has, however, refused to sell arms to the Nigerian military because of its history of human rights abuses.  Still, there was some good news for the military as they re-took the town of Mubi from Boko Haram.

Burma

Two years after his first visit, US president Barack Obama is due to arrive in Burma for two days next to attend Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) regional summit being hosted in the capital of Burma, Naypyidaw. Burma is hosting the ASEAN summit for the first time as part of the country’s growing effort to engage with its neighbors and region. Leaders from all Southeast Asian countries are expected to be in attendance. Critics say that Burma has remain stagnant, or even regressed, in its respect of human rights since Obama’s last visit. Obama has cited his renewed diplomatic engagement with Burma as one of his administration’s greatest achievements.

Prior to the ASEAN meeting, two new reports have been published accusing the Burmese government of thwarting refugee repatriation efforts and three of Burma’s important government officials of war crimes. The Border Consortium, a coalition of aid and human rights organizations situated near the Thai-Burma border, has claimed that increased militarization in that region has greatly hampered refugee repatriation. The other report published by Harvard University’s International Human Rights Clinic has accused three current Burmese government officials, including the current Minister of Home Affairs Maj-Gen Ko Ko, of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

One of Burma’s oldest and most significant rebel group, the Karen National Union (KNU) has been showing signs of splintering since it signed a ceasefire agreement with the Burmese government in 2012. The KNU is an organization claiming to represent the Karen people in a state in eastern Burma of the same name. The Karen are among the most oppressed ethnic groups by the current government (and under the former military dictatorship). Since signing the ceasefire with the government, numerous splinter factions and sub-organizations have emerged from the KNU.

Central African Republic (CAR)

As violence continues to accelerate in the Central African Republic (CAR), many are questioning the credibility of the UN peacekeeping force, known as MINUSCA, deployed to the country in September. Despite the efforts of MINUSCA, dozens of civilians have been killed and thousands have been displaced by interethnic violence in recent weeks. While much media attention has focused on the recent flare up of violence in the capital of Bangui, violence has also been severe in central areas of the country where CAR’s armed ethnic and religious groups are still vying for control. Towns in these contested areas, such as Dekoa and Bambari, have seen brutal attacks and counter-attacks by the majority Muslim Seleka group, Christian and animist anti-balaka rebel coalition, and a splinter-off group of the Seleka comprised of armed members of the Peulh ethnic group. Civilians have often bared the brunt of these attacks, in part due to the challenges of providing adequate civilian protection without a fully funded and staffed mission. MINUSCA has yet to see the deployment of a third of its mandated peacekeepers, and other divisions face even more severe shortages. Following a request from CAR’s transitional government, the European Union announced that it will extend its military mission in CAR, known as EUFOR RCA, until March 2015.

In addition to an overstretched peacekeeping mission, pressures on the transitional government from traditional political parties and the partitioning of the country into ‘zones of influence’ are further complicating efforts to restore peace to the Central African Republic. Transition President Samba-Panza has been accused of misdirecting funds and failing to adequately lead peace and reconciliation efforts. This has sparked competition among CAR’s political class, intensified as elections approach in the coming year. Meanwhile, the country has grown further fragmented as Seleka and anti-balaka warlords have begun to consolidate their individual power in their respective localities. These rebel coalitions and their respective armed leaders appear to be funding much of their power-consolidation through selling gold and diamonds, often through smuggling.

In more positive news, CAR recently acceded to the International Tropical Timber Agreement, or ITTA. The agreement strives “to promote the diversification of international trade in tropical timber from sustainably managed and legally harvested forests”. Timber is one of the country’s main exports, with a forest area of nearly 22.7 million hectares.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Investigations into the murder of Congolese Colonel Mamadou Ndala in January 2014 are still ongoing in the DRC. Recently, Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels, the group allegedly responsible for Ndala’s death, brought forth evidence suggesting Congolese military (FARDC) complicity in the attacks. In the most recent allegations, ADF leaders claim that Lieutenant Colonel Nzanu Birosho of the FARDC accepted a bribe 27,000 USD to facilitate ADF attacks against Ndala.

On Friday, October 31, an African Union working group met to discuss the implementation of the Peace, Security, and Cooperation Framework (PSC) for the Great Lakes Region and UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2098 on the DR Congo. Both documents came into force in early 2013. The group also discussed allegations that Rwanda and Uganda continue to provide asylum for former M-23 combatants, threatening security in the DRC. The AU meeting also addressed approaches to disarmament for the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR). While the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) support military offensives against the ICGLR, the AU does not favor a military approach.

In late October, two young Congolese activists were shot and killed near a MONUSCO base in Beni, North Kivu. The activists were part of a group of Congolese civil society leaders protesting recent attacks by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a Ugandan rebel group operating in eastern DRC. The protesters blamed the UN for not doing more to prevent ADF attacks on civilians. In an effort to stop the protests, MONUSCO troops and FARDC soldiers opened fire on the crowd, killing two youths and wounding others.

Congolese Joseph Kabila issued a statement on November 1 requesting additional UN troops to supplement existing MONUSCO forces in eastern Congo. The new troops would reinforce MONUSCO’s Force Intervention Brigade (FIB) and form the backbone of a proactive strategy to combat the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a militia group responsible for a string of attacks on civilians near Beni, North Kivu. Martin Kobler, MONUSCO director, welcomed the President’s request, highlighting the need for the UN to take action against the ADF.

Sudan ** trigger warning: sexual violence **

Reports emerged last week that the infamous warlord Joseph Kony is hiding out on the Sudanese border. The fugitive Lord’s Resistance Army commander who is facing indictments of egregious human rights violations has been seen in a border town between Sudan and South Sudan called Kafia Kingi. Many human rights groups are calling on Sudanese and South Sudanese authorities to step up efforts to capture Kony and bring him to the appropriate authorities to face the charges against him.

The UN Resident Humanitarian Coordinator recently expressed concern that children in the conflict-affected areas of South Kordofan and Blue Nile states are at high risk of contracting polio. Conflict between the Sudanese government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement – North (SPLM-N) has prevented the administration of polio vaccines to children in these states.

Last week, UN and African Union representatives have been denied entry to the scene of an alleged mass rape of 200 women and girls in western Darfur. The joint mission, known as UNAMID, expressed its concern over the reports but has been unable to investigate the incident.

South Sudan

The United States announced last Tuesday that it will circulate a draft resolution in the United Nations Security Council for establishing a sanctions regime on South Sudan. An anonymous US official said that the resolution “will establish a mechanism for targeting individuals undermining South Sudan’s political stability and abusing human rights”, but did not say when the draft resolution would be circulated and put to a vote.

Additionally, there are reports that another peace deal has been forged. This is the third peace deal since the country erupted into violent conflict in December 2013. The peace deal states that the two warring parties must cease fighting and that any violation would invite trade freezes and travel bans across East Africa. The peace deal comes after threats of sanctions from countries and international agencies.

Although a new peace deal has been reached, violence has flared in South Sudan over the past week. The UN issued a statement condemning the recent outburst of violence and urging peace.

Syria

This past week the United States has launched renewed air strikes on the Khorasan group, an Al-Qaeda linked militant faction based in Syria. The US has said that the group intends to launch terror attacks in the United States and Europe. According to U.S. Central Command, the latest series of air strikes against the Khorasan group took place near Sarmada in Idlib province, close to the Turkish border. Reuters reports that the target of the strikes is David Drugeon, a French-born militant who is reportedly the bomb maker for ISIS. However, his death as a consequence of the strikes has not been confirmed.

The US is facing accusation of having assisted Assad in his bid to reassert power. Critics of US policy have asserted that the US attacks on the Islamic State (ISIS) have allowed Assad to capitalize on the fragmentation of his opposition. Syrian air strikes on rebel held areas have increased dramatically in the last few weeks, with the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reporting that the Assad regime has killed 221 civilians in the last two weeks alone, undertaking 800 aerial strikes and dropping no less than 401 barrel bombs. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights went on to say that the Assad regime was “taking advantage” of the world focus on the fight against ISIS centred in Kobane, using it as a diversion to intensify attacks on rebel held areas.

The Turkish government has accused the Syrian government of committing massacres in and around Aleppo. According to Reuters, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has warned that Turkey could see a second massive influx of Syrian refugees if the Assad regime succeeds in taking the city. Davutoglu used the warnings to reassert the Turkish desire for a no-fly zone in Syrian territory that could be used to cater for Syrian refugees and equip and train Syrian fighters against ISIS. “If Aleppo were to fall, we in Turkey would really be confronted with a large, very serious, worrisome refugee crisis. This is why we want a safe zone.” Turkey already hosts 1.5 million Syrian refugees. The US is reluctant, however, to create a no-fly zone, as such an area would require patrol by foreign jets. Aleppo, once Syria most populous city, has now been divided in two, between Assad’s regime and opposition forces. Davutloglu has accused the Assad regime of “large massacres” through their barrel bombing the northeast and western areas of the city, areas held by the Free Syrian Army.

Mortar fire on a Syrian school in Damascus has killed 13 children. The attack took place in Qaboun, a rebel held suburb of Damascus. Activists have blamed Assad for the attack, though the details remain unclear. AP writes: “Wednesday’s attack marked the most serious violence against Syrian minors since a twin suicide bombing killed at least 25 children in a government-controlled neighborhood in the central city of Homs in October.”

According to The Guardian, ISIS fighters in Syria have reportedly wrested control of a gas field in the central province of Homs from government forces, making this the second such capture in a week for ISIS.

Emerging Conflicts: Ukraine

The conflict in eastern Ukraine escalated with renewed shelling and disputes over attempted elections. The conflict reignited after pro-Russian separatists held elections which made Alexander Zacharchecko and Igor Plotnitsky leaders of the self-proclaimed people’s republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. The two people’s republics together form New Russia. Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko decried the results and argued that it violated the Minsk agreement signed in September. He also said that in response to the elections he wanted Parliament to not pass a law that would grant special status to eastern parts of the country. This would have allowed greater autonomy for the regions and protected separatist fighters from prosecution. The rebels in returned argued that Poroshenko’s action would constitute a violation of the Minsk agreement.

Although Russia has annexed Crimea, the eastern parts of Ukraine are still in question. Russia has not formally backed the recent elections and has also denied sending troops to help the separatist forces. The United States and its allies have criticized the recent elections. While the Ukrainian government strongly opposes the separatists, it does not seem to have the strength to take back the disputed regions. The government has effectively ceded control of the regions in order to focus on securing the rest of the country. Government forces have set up passport control between separatist areas and the rest of Ukraine and the government has stopped subsidies and pensions to the regions. Many analysts believe the regions are becoming “frozen conflicts” similar to Nagorno-Karabakh and South Ossetia, both regions where Russia has large influence but not official control.

The recent escalation in conflict has also seen renewed violence. There was heavy shelling in Donetsk despite September’s ceasefire still officially being in place. Two teenagers were killed and four were wounded by a shell while playing soccer at a school on Wednesday, 5 November. Three Ukrainian soldiers were killed on Thursday, 6 November. Over 4,000 people have been killed since the conflict began early this year.

Burma

In Mandalay, Burma’s second largest city, thousands marched in support of a controversial so-called interfaith bill that puts restrictions on interfaith marriage and religious conversions in an effort to strengthen the relative majority position of Buddhism. Many critics believe this bill, which is currently in legal limbo within the Burmese parliament, is specifically designed to target the Rohingya, a predominantly Muslim group in Burma’s west. The Rohingya are denied citizenship, used as force labor, made to live in camps, and denied other basic rights by the Burmese government because of a 1982 citizenship law. Some report that over 100,000 Rohingya have now fled Burma.

Last week, the death of a journalist while in police custody has sparked criticism from the American and British Embassies in Yangon. The journalist, Aung Kyaw Naing, was a reporter and human rights activist covering recent clashes between the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army and the Burmese military in the east of Burma. The Burmese military claimed in a letter that it detained Aung Kyaw Naing because he was a member of an armed rebel group and was subsequently shot when he reached for the gun of a soldier. Journalists and those close to Aung Kyaw Naing are suspicious of the official accounts of his death.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, and the United States government each expressed concern over the Congolese government’s expulsion of Scott Campbell earlier this month. Campbell was the highest-ranking UN human rights officer in the DRC. His expulsion follows a UN report condemning 9 summary executions and 32 disappearances, for which the Congolese police force (PNC) allegedly bears responsibility. Congolese information minister Lambert Mende responded to international criticism by defending the DRC’s right to expel Campbell for what he describes as “spreading lies” and attempting to discredit the Congolese government.

Dr. Denis Mukwege of the DRC’s Bukavu province received the 2014 Shakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought, the highest human rights award from the European Parliament. The Parliament recognized Mukwege for his relentless activism to end the use of rape as a weapon of war and his tireless physical, social, and economic support of sexual violence survivors in eastern Congo. Mukwege said, “It’s not a women question; it’s a humanity question, and men have to take responsibility to end it. It’s not an Africa problem. In Bosnia, Syria, Liberia, Colombia, you have the same thing.”

Three months away from the UN’s repatriation deadline for Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) rebel fighters, analysts believe that regional tensions between the DRC, Rwanda, Tanzania, and South Africa may complicate the disarmament process. While the UN and Rwandan authorities are eager to pursue military action against the FDLR, South Africa and Tanzania advocate political dialogue as the most viable solution. FDLR fighters, for their part, refuse to take part in the UN disarmament process in the absence of political negotiations with Rwandan authorities.

MONUSCO bases in North Kivu are stepping up security in response to a recent string of attacks by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF-NALU) in Beni, North Kivu, DRC. The attacks come after the UN and the Congolese military (FARDC) effectively neutralized the ADF rebels earlier this year. “If you want to stay in peace, you must not send us your soldiers,” one ADF fighter told a Beni resident in the midst of the attacks.

Sudan

Last week in Sudan, President al-Bashir said that his army is going to launch a decisive attack against rebels in the region. After calling attention to recent military victories against rebel groups, Bashir ordered the army to prepare for a battle to end rebellion in Sudan this coming summer. The president claimed that many of the political issues in Sudan have stemmed from the rebellions throughout the country and the only way to protect Sudan is to quell these rebellions by force.

At the same time, President Al Bashir urged constitutional reforms to “streamline the process of government decentralization.” While Bashir has called on MPs to amend the national charter so that “the Sudanese people to have a say in managing their own affairs”, critics say that Bashir is seeking constitutional authority to appoint Sudan’s governors who have been chosen by elections since Sudan’s transitional constitution was adopted in 2005.

South Sudan

This week in South Sudan, rebel forces have continued to advance despite international pressures to negotiate peace. The rebels have captured a critical oil hub in Bentiu, raising concern about the potential progress of peace talks, which have been ongoing since the beginning of the conflict. The United Nations and the United States have both called for an immediate cease of violence and for the government to show restraint so that peace can have a chance to thrive. The two sides are facing a United Nations ultimatum that the two sides must form a power-sharing agreement or the country will face harsh sanctions that will continue to affect the already weary population. Both the United Nations and the United States have condemned these new acts of violence calling the conflict, “senseless” and “appalling”.

With this new offensive, there is also fear that the population surrounding Bentiu will be displaced and unable to access resources. The international community continues to express concern about the ramifications of the renewed violence on the population at large. International NGOs fear that as the violence continues, so will the risk of famine and the displacement of the population to refugee camps, where they face poor living conditions. International Crisis Group stated that greater coordination between regional and international actors is desperately needed in order to create high level peace talks with the potential to ensure a sustainable peace agreement.

Additionally, there have been reports that South Sudanese refugees are choosing floods over war. In a report in Bloomberg BusinessWeek, refugee Martha Nyakuk claimed that she preferred her flooded refugee camp to returning to South Sudan, showing that the situation for South Sudanese civilians is rapidly declining.

Syria

The Assad regime dropped barrel bombs on a displaced persons camp in a northern province of Idlib on Wednesday, killing dozens. Certainty regarding numbers of dead varied, with camp residents claiming that up to 75 people had died as a result of the attack. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, however, claimed ten civilians had died, while the Syrian State media neglected any mention of the attack. The US condemned the attack, noting that although that they could not be certain of the attack’s perpetrators, the overwhelming evidence was against the Assad government. Human rights groups claimed that the Assad regime has repeatedly dropped barrel bombs, “containers filled with nails, metal shrapnel and explosive material that are dropped from helicopters”, on densely populated neighbourhoods.

Lebanon has closed its borders to all Syrian refugees, with the exception of “extreme humanitarian cases”. According to Syria Deeply, Lebanon is currently home to more than 1.1 million Syrian refugees, meaning that more than a quarter of the country’s 4 million residents are now Syrians. The burden has posed tremendous strain on the Lebanese government, but the decision to begin rejecting refugees has great implications for Syrians, currently seeking refuge in Lebanon at the rate of 10,000 a week. Jordan’s foreign minister Nasser Judeh warned that Syria’s neighbours are beginning to suffer what he termed “host-country fatigue”, putting it down to the “huge demand from refugees for housing, schools, jobs, and healthcare and scant resources like water.”

After being allowed passage by the Turkish government, 150 Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga reached Turkey on Wednesday, en route to join Kurds fighting off the Islamic State (ISIS) in Kobani. The Turkish government’s allowance for the passage of Iraqi Peshmerga is unprecedented, especially considering the political sensitivities of the region. The Turkish government considers the Syrian Kurds fighting in Kobani – the very same the Peshmerga sent by the Iraqi Kurdish government are going to help – to be an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK. The Turkish government designates the PKK as a terrorist group, and the PKK and have been locked in conflict with the group for the past thirty years.

Emerging Conflicts: Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso is seeing massive protests as the future of its government is decided.  The President of the West African country of 10 million, Blaise Compaoré, had held that title for over 27 years. Terms limits were supposed to prevent him from running for re-election in 2015. However, his party, Congress for Democracy and Progress, controlled two-thirds of the legislature, and MPs were set to vote on changing the constitution to allow Compaoré to stay in power.  However, the protests that began on 21 October escalated on 30 October, the proposed day of the vote. Around 1,500 protesters broke a security cordon and stormed parliament despite tear gas and live bullets fired by soldiers. Protestors set fire to Parliament and the ruling party headquarters, took over the state television station, and marched towards the Presidential Palace.

The vote to extend Compaoré’s rule was cancelled, yet his future remained uncertain.  Earlier in the day Compaoré announced a state of emergency and said that the head of the armed forces, General Honoré Traoré, would preside over it. Traoré then announced that Parliament was dissolved, a curfew was being implemented, and there would be a transitional government lasting a maximum of twelve months. Later that night Compaoré announced that he was still President and would hand over power at the end of the transitional government.  Zéphirin Diabré, the main opposition leader, called the state of emergency unacceptable and called for the resignation of Compaoré. Opposition leaders also held talks with retired general Kouamé Lougué. He later marched to the Presidential Palace with supporters and was allowed in, raising fears of a military coup. A number of soldiers have also defected and joined the protests. This is not the first time Compaoré has had his rule challenged. He has extended term limits multiple times and withstood popular protests and mutinies in 2011.

On Friday, in reversal of his announcement the night before, Compaoré announced that he would be stepping down.  He then fled in an armed convoy for the Ivory Coast, where he is now. General Honoré Traoré initially said he would lead the government after Compaoré, but it quickly became clear that the army preferred Lieutenant Colonel Issac Zida and he would hold power during the transition period. It appears that Traoré was seen as too close to Compaoré and Zida was more popular with the younger generation. After Zida’s appointment Burkina Faso largely returned to calm. The organizers of the protests called for protesters to help clean up the capital Ouagadougou. However, there were still some protests from those who saw Zida’s ascent to power as a military coup. On Sunday there were shots fired at the state TV station after opposition leader Saran Sereme and Kwamé Lougué showed up.  It appears that they were warning shots and no one was killed.

The events have large implications beyond Burkina Faso.  Compaoré was a major ally of the US and France and has allowed Burkina Faso to serve as a base for counterterrorism operations. Additionally, his fate may set a precedent for other African leaders. José Eduardo dos Santos in Angola, Pierre Nkurunziza in Burundi, Paul Kagame in Rwanda, and Joseph Kabila in the DR Congo are all facing term limits and have not confirmed that they will stand down. Compaoré’s loss of power may help determine their decisions on whether or not to try to hold onto office.

The Burmese Army has agreed to withdraw troops from part of Burma’s northern Shan State in which sporadic fighting has reportedly left seven people dead and hundreds displaced. Despite a ceasefire agreement, the Burmese Army was fighting members of the Shan State Army, the armed wing of the Shan State Progress Party, which advocates for greater regional autonomy.

Additionally, the Burmese government announced that it would hold general elections in late October or early November of next year. This will be Burma’s second general election, with the first being held in 2011. As mandated by the Burmese constitution, the parliament, which will be 75% civilian and 25% military, will select the country’s next president in 2016. Democratic icon Aung San Suu Kyi has indicated her desire to run for president, but she appears to be unable to do so due to oddly specific elections rules that many believe was passed to explicitly exclude her from running.

Last week, a controversial bill limiting press freedom was passed by Burma’s upper house of parliament. The measure would establish a council of government officials that could regulate and oversee all television and radio broadcasting services. It also limits foreign ownership of private TV broadcasting. Since Burma’s transition from military dictatorship to quasi civilian led government, press freedoms have been greatly improved. However, some worry that measures like this could limit the country’s progress in this area.

Central African Republic (CAR)

Recent weeks have seen a surge in violence in the Central African Republic.  On Thursday, gunmen from the Fulani militia and the predominantly Muslim Seleka militia attacked the town of Yamalé, leaving at least thirty people dead. The attack follows an outbreak of violence in the capital of Bangui that killed at least six the previous week. Violence broke out Tuesday and Wednesday saw clashes between UN peacekeeping forces and the predominantly animist and Christian anti-balaka forces.

International organizations have continued their work as the violence continues. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has struggled to maintain its humanitarian work despite serious security concerns as the violence continues. The United Nations and the World Health Organization both condemned attacks by various militias on hospitals and doctors, and urged all armed groups to “respect medical facilities and allow patients and medical staff unhindered and safe access to hospitals”. The UN estimates that the latest violence has displaced at least 6,500 people.

Meanwhile, CAR’s government announced that it plans to reform its army by creating a rapid intervention unit in an effort to quell the interethnic violence that has plagued the country since December 2013. The government’s armed forces, FACA, were routed by the Seleka militia in 2013, and many members have either ceased to report to duty due to lack of pay or joined various militia groups.

Democratic Republic of Congo

On Monday, October 20, the governor of North Kivu province, DRC affirmed that civilians in North Kivu support ongoing Congolese military (FARDC) operations against the Ugandan Allied Democratic Forces-National Army for the Liberation of Uganda (ADF-NALU) militant groups. The ADF-NALU bears responsibility for over 80 civilian deaths in Beni, North Kivu over the past month. The UN force in the DRC, MONUSCO, will execute a joint offensive strategy to combat the ADF-NALU, in collaboration with the FARDC.

Congolese Minister of Information Lambert Mende referred to last Friday’s attacks on civilians in North Kivu as the consequences of “ADF-NALU terrorist operations”. Mende assured journalists that Congolese officials continue to work closely with their Ugandan counterparts to gather intelligence on ADF-NALU operations. The most recent attack left nearly thirty Congolese civilians dead, the latest in a string of guerilla assaults on unarmed civilians. The Ugandan military chased ADF-NALU rebels into eastern Congo in the 1990s, and today the group continues to terrorize civilians in the region.

In August 2014, the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) gave FDLR militants a six-month extension to voluntarily disarm and return to Rwanda. The ultimatum stipulates that FDLR militants must surrender before December 31, 2014 or face military action by MONUSCO and the FARDC. On October 19, in a joint meeting of the ICGLR and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the UN special envoy for the Great Lakes called upon the leaders of ICGLR and SADC countries to reach a consensus concerning an international response should FDLR militants fail to disarm before the December deadline.

Sudan

Last week in Sudan, Sudanese security forces arrested a journalist in Khartoum. When questioned, the journalist’s family could think of no reason for his arrest and have been unable to reach him by telephone. The journalist worked for the London based newspaper Al-Hayat that publishes in Arabic. In the past, Sudan has been accused of arresting journalists without cause and disrespecting freedom of the press and speech. Sudan is currently ranked 172 out of 180 in the Reporters Without Borders 2014 World Press Freedom Index.

Additionally, reports have emerged claiming that Sudan may be arming South Sudanese rebels. This indicates that Sudan’s government plans to increase military assistance to rebels in South Sudan, which could escalate and prolong the conflict on South Sudanese soil. The news comes from leaked minutes from a high-level security meeting in Khartoum. The South Sudanese rebels have denied Sudan’s involvement in the conflict on many occassions, and have continued to deny it since the release of these minutes. Many experts have warned that should Sudan support the South Sudanese rebels with arms and aid, it will protract and intensify the conflict, and could exacerbate the humanitarian crises on the ground.

 Finally, this week Sudan’s defense minister made a surprise trip to China to continue talks with the Chinese defense minister. The Sudanese defense minister claims that the visit was fruitful and that there is a strong bond between China and Sudan’s defense forces. China is the main investor in Sudanese oil production and the Sudanese rely on Chinese arms. Chinese shipments to Sudan include ammunition, helicopters, aircraft, and tanks. Such continued military support from China could contribute to the continuation of armed conflict in both Sudan and South Sudan.

South Sudan

This week in South Sudan, The UN mission in South Sudan has set up provisions for internally displaced persons. These sites will help 28,000 internally displaced persons near three cities in South Sudan. The mission stated that this is a temporary situation for these IDPs and that once stability in the region is restored, they hope that the IDPs can return home. As the mission has been building thee sites outside of Juba, Bor, and Bentiu the mission has seen the continued decline of living conditions as the conflict continues. The situation in all of these places is dire, especially outside of Bor and Bentiu, where the rainy season has destroyed crops and flooding has spread disease, exacerbated by the area’s lack of health care professionals.

Additionally, a report has emerged that South Sudan’s crisis is threatening its development. According to South Sudan’s finance chief, the conflict has caused the country to have to re-direct its focus to security and emergency relief instead of development programs. The finance minister said that South Sudan must focus on achieving peace before the country can create sustainable economic growth or improve the humanitarian situation of its citizens. The report also commented on humanitarian aid to South Sudan. USAID increased its aid to 180,000 US dollars in August to attempt to quell the drastically deteriorating humanitarian situation.

In a meeting last week between three members of the South Sudanese ruling parties in Arusha, Tanzania, each party accepted responsibility for starting and continuing the conflict that has devastated South Sudan these last ten months. The admission of guilt from all three parties suggests the possibility that a peace deal may soon be reached. The meeting in Tanzania showcased the effect of intense international pressure for the South Sudanese to create a successful peace deal between the three factions.

Syria

Reuters is reporting that the Syrian air force has stepped up attacks on rebel held areas, reportedly striking up to 200 times in recent days. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the government has launched up to 210 raids in recent days – including with the use of barrel bombs – focused on provinces in the east, north and west of the country. Areas affected by the raids included Hama, Daraa, Idlib, Aleppo and Quneitra provinces as well as the Damascus countryside. Before this increase in strikes, the Syrian military only launched aerial raids at a rate of 10-20 strikes a day. The increase of government attacks heightens fears that the Assad regime is using the United States coalition’s bombardment of ISIS held area to attack opposition forces, including more moderate and western-backed factions.

The heightening of air strikes could also signal the Syrian government’s desire to weaken moderate opposition forces before the United States trains and arms them. Despite the US and Syrian government’s mutual opposition to the Islamic State (IS), the United States does not want to help the Assad regime. This stems from the understanding that the Assad regime is in large part responsible for the creation of IS and other terror organizations, who have flourished in the vacuum of power created by divisions formed after Assad’s brutal crackdown on dissent, civil liberties, and peaceful protest.

Lawmakers in Iraq’s Kurdistan region have moved to authorise Kurdish Peshmerga’s mobilisation to Kobane, the Syrian-Turkish border town with a primarily Kurdish population, currently under siege by IS. Youssef Mohammed, the speaker of parliament  said, “This is a big turning point in Kurdish history. Troops used to be sent to occupy Kurdish lands, but now we are sending soldiers to protect our Kurdish brothers abroad”.

Emerging Conflicts: Pakistan

At least 13 people were killed in the southwestern city of Quetta on 23 October in a series of attacks. Eight members of the Hazara minority were killed when gunmen opened fire on a bus. Soon after, a bomb on a motorcycle exploded targeting a car used by security forces. Two people were killed and 12 were wounded in the attack. There was also an attack which killed two and wounded 30. The cleric Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman, the head of a Sunni religious party and supporter of the Taliban, was targeted but he was not severely hurt. He has been targeted in the past for his willingness to work inside the democratic system.

No group has taken responsibility for the attacks yet, but Taliban-linked Sunni militant group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi is the main suspect. However, Quetta is the provincial capital of Baluchistan and Baluch separatists are also suspected. The majority of victims were Hazaras, a Shi’ite ethnic group that has been repeatedly targeted. Hundreds of Hazara protested the killings later in the day. About one-fifth of Pakistan is Shia and over 800 have been killed attacks since 2012.

The recent attacks in Quetta follow an attack on a bus in early October in Peshawar which killed seven. Tensions have escalated since the Pakistani military launched an offensive against militants in North Waziristan in June. Over 800,000 people have been displaced in the operation, and the Pakistani military says that over 1,000 militants and 86 Pakistani soldiers have been killed.