Sudan

After Mohamed Mattar, a Sudanese engineering student, was killed protecting two people during the massacre of protesters in Khartoum on June 3rd, his blue profile picture became the symbol for the online #BlueforSudan movement. Worldwide, people changed their social media profile pictures to that shade of blue to honor him and the other victims of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and to show solidarity with the civilians continuing to protest the Sudanese government.

Transitional Military Council (TMC) cut internet access after the June 3 massacre to stifle the information released about its crimes. As of Tuesday, July 9, a court-ordered restoration of landline phone connections has been implemented, technically ending the blackout, but leaving many still disconnected. Mobile connections have not yet been restored. This partial restoration of internet access in Sudan comes as the result of a power-sharing agreement between the TMC and civilian protest leaders. This agreement sets out a plan for a military leader for the first 21 months, followed by a civilian leader for the next 18 months and then a democratically-elected president after the interim period. 

It is likely that people such as the head of the RSF and deputy head of the TMC Mohamed Hamdan “Hemeti” Dagalo, who is accused of human rights atrocities in the Darfur Genocide, will maintain significant power. Furthermore, the inquiry into the June 3 massacre will not hold the military accountable. Many women and members of marginalized groups fear that they will be excluded from power, especially in regions recovering from immense violence such as Darfur. It seems best to look at this new agreement with optimistic cautiousness; it may turn out well for the people of Sudan but it may, like many agreements of the past, fall through. Awareness is still of the utmost importance. 

South Sudan

Eight years after South Sudan declared independence from Sudan, the country is still rife with conflict. President Salva Kiir apologized for conflict and government mismanagement contributing to the ongoing economic crisis in his eight-year Independence Day speech. Still, a recent UN report documents increased conflict in Central Equatoria in South Sudan since Kiir and rebel leader Riek Machar signed a peace agreement last year. Although violence has decreased elsewhere in the country, hundreds have been killed or abducted in Central Equatoria and many women and girls have been subjected to rape and sexual violence. Here, ongoing territorial contests between government forces, rebel groups who did not sign the peace agreement, and forces allied with Machar lead to deliberate and accidental civilian deaths. This surge in attacks has forced over 56,000 people to flee their homes, becoming internally displaced within South Sudan, and another 20,000 to escape to Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 

Great Lakes of Africa

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Over the past month, the total number of reported Ebola cases rose to 2,418, with 1,630 reported deaths, according to the latest situation report from the World Health Organization. No new cases have been reported in the town from which the outbreak originated, but the virus continues to spread to new towns throughout the North Kivu and Ituri provinces. One case was recently reported near the border with South Sudan; since last month, there have been no cases reported in Uganda. On July 15, a case was confirmed in Goma by the Rwandan border, but the responsiveness indicates that the chances of its spread in this region are low. However, the response capacity in the North Kivu and Ituri provinces is still hindered by the widespread distrust of public health and government officials amongst a population so long afflicted by violence. Rumors that the Ebola virus was brought into the region to target the historically victimized population are widespread and largely believed.  

In recent months, violence has increased. Displacement due to revived conflict, totalling at about 300,000 displaced persons since June, exacerbates the difficulty of tracking patients at risk of Ebola. In addition to extreme public health concerns, the resurgence of violence in the Ituri province prompted President Felix Tshisekedi to describe the longstanding conflict between Lendu farmers and Hema herders as “attempted genocide.” In early July, he launched an offensive backed by UN peacekeeping mission MONUSCO, Uganda, and Rwanda in an attempt to end the communal violence. According to Al Jazeera, Congolese refugees arriving in Uganda report extreme brutality; local officials say that at least 161 people were killed in one attack, all of whose bodies were found in a single mass grave. It is an incredibly complex region, with current violence further destabilized by neighboring conflicts such as the Rwandan genocide of the mid-90s, the presence of numerous local militias and foreign armed groups, and an abundance of lucrative resources like gold and cobalt.

While President Tshisekedi spoke out about genocidal conflict plaguing the Ituri province, police fired on protestors in the capital of Kinshasa as well as the city of Goma according to Human Rights Watch. Protestors are calling on Congolese authorities to investigate excessive use of force against the peaceful protestors of the Lamuka coalition, which backed Martin Fayulu during the recent presidential elections. On June 30, they gathered to protest widespread corruption and election fraud, but were met with teargas, live ammunition, and beatings. 

On July 8, General Bosco Ntaganda, also known as “The Terminator,” was convicted by the International Criminal Court of 18 counts of crimes against humanity and war crimes. First indicted in 2006 for his role in atrocities between 2002-2003, he now faces a maximum life sentence. 

Middle East

Yemen

Since 2014, the civil war in Yemen has killed more than 16,000 civilians and left more than 12 million people on the verge of starvation. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) partnered with Yemen Data Project and determined that there have been more than 91,600 conflict-related fatalities in Yemen since 2015. Around 67% of all reported civilian fatalities have been caused by Saudi-led coalition airstrikes. They also found 2018 to be the deadliest and most violent year on record. A UN Security Council report covering the period from April 1, 2013 to December 31, 2018 determines that children are paying the highest price for the war. During that period, there have been 11,779 violations against children in Yemen. Maiming and killing were the two main violations, primarily caused by airstrikes and ground fighting. Additionally, underreported instances include sexual violence, recruitment and use of children in war and attack on schools and hospitals. 

Five years into the war, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a key member of the Saudi-led coalition, has decided to withdraw most of its forces from Yemen. However, they plan on leaving behind Emirati trained forces and maintaining its Al-Mukalla base for counterterrorism operations. The Houthis have also led missile and drone attacks on Saudi cities and airports since June 2019. One of the most recent drone attacks struck Abha airport on July 2 and nine civilians were injured. These attacks escalate tensions as the UN and the international community attempt to negotiate peace in Yemen. Diplomats from the UAE claimed that the UAE can always send troops back to Yemen, where Abu Dhabi has built strong local allies with tens of thousands of fighters.

Syria

The northwestern province of Idlib continues to be the focus of an ongoing Russian-led bombing campaign which began in April. 544 civilians, including 130 children, have been killed and over 2,000 have been injured as a result of strikes. These attacks have included the use of cluster munitions and incendiary weapons targeting largely civilian areas. The Russian government attempted to justify ongoing attacks by arguing that they are responses to al-Qaida action and a failed ceasefire deal between Turkey and Russia last year. 

Over 300,000 people have been pushed from their homes since the attacks began in April, moving closer to the Turkish border. As the campaign continues, reports have determined that three million civilian lives are at risk, including at least one million children. 

In Lebanon, which hosts the most refugees per capita in the world including 1.5 million Syrians, refugees are blamed for the country’s economic crisis and pressured to leave. Syrian refugees in the region of Arsal were given until July 1st to demolish shelters that were made of any material deemed more permanent than timber and plastic sheeting. Simultaneously, refugees have been targeted with an increase in arrests and deportations, confiscation and destruction of property, curfews, and limits to education and employment access. 

Southeast Asia

Burma

Many of the 100,000 ethnic Kachins living in 140 internally displaced persons (IDPs) camps continue to suffer from the effects of war since the ceasefire broke between the KIA and Burmese military eight years ago. As the Burmese government blocks IDPs from receiving aid in food, healthcare, shelter, and sanitation, prayers were said in the mountains of Kachin state on June 14. Moreover, an ethnic Kachin woman was found brutally murdered in an IDP camp on July 4. 

Burmese authorities also gave orders for the shut down of the internet in nine townships located in Rakhine and Chin states on June 20, which allowed for war crimes to go unnoticed as the Burmese military approached fighting with the local Arakan Army. In addition to these crimes, reports have found that cybercrimes, including online fraud and online sexual violence, have been increasingly on the rise since 2015. The U.S. expressed their disapproval of the situation on June 29 by joining calls for Burma to end the internet shutdown. On July 3, UN investigator Yang Hee Lee reported that new war crimes have appeared amidst the internet blackout, although the Burmese military constantly deny such allegations.

In response to atrocities against the Rohingya, International Criminal Court Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda filed a request with judges on July 4 to open up an investigation of crimes against humanity committed by the Burmese government against the ethnic group. On July 6, hundreds took to the streets in marches supporting the “Justice for Victoria” movement, a response to a toddler rape case that has become a campaign against sexual violence. In regards to Burma’s 2020 elections, speculators like Ma Htoot May believe that the NLD’s actions in the past year alone and inaction of Aung San Suu Kyi have lessened the party’s appeal to the public and that ethnic parties will thus have a higher chance of winning. On the morning of July 10, Burmese nationals, including the brother of the Arakan Army Chief General, were arrested in Singapore for their ties to the Arakan Army, in which they organized Burmese individuals living within the country to financially support the rebel armed group. Singapore plans to deport them.

Emerging Crises

Venezuela

Last week, talks began in Barbados between the Venezuelan opposition and the government of President Maduro. Mediated by Norway, both sides returned on Thursday with no announcement of a deal. During this break, two members of Juan Guaido’s security detail were detained for attempting to sell rifles during Guaido’s failed April 30 attempt at removing Maduro from power. Though talks were confirmed to continue into this week with an announcement from the opposition on Sunday, the arrests are expected to exacerbate tensions. The government will bring the weapons accusation against the opposition during the coming round of negotiation, while Guaido remains steadfast that the arrests are based on false evidence as a part of intimidation efforts. There is fear that talks will continue to stall as the Western Hemisphere’s worst humanitarian crisis in recent memory continues to worsen. 

As the current government struggles to handle its worsening political and economic crisis, the United Nations recently released a report documenting 18 months of extrajudicial killings perpetrated by the Venezuelan special forces. Though the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry denounces the reports, the investigators give abundant evidence of the witness-described “death squads” killing thousands for resisting authority, cover-up of the deaths, and an overall system of suppression. United Nations human rights officials fear that the special forces and other armed groups are used by the government to control their population by fostering widespread fear. Briefly following the UN report, an international legal watchdog organization, the International Commission of Jurists, said that the government has seized the legislative and judicial branches of the Venezuelan government, leading to the breakdown of the rule of law. 

Mali

Violence in Mali has been steadily escalating with clashes between the Fulani and Dogon ethnic groups, where the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali recorded 488 Fulani deaths and 63 Fulani-caused deaths since the beginning of 2018. The ethnic violence between the Fulani and Dogon groups stems from long-fought battles over land and resources after Amadeus Koufa, a Malian preacher, started recurring Fulanis for an armed group in 2015. 

On June 19, 2019, an estimated 38 people were killed after Fulani communities attacked Dogon villages in the Mopti region. Dogon militiamen retaliated on July 1, when an attack on a village of Fulani herders left 23 dead and 300 missing. 

Civilians began to respond to the escalation in violence when, in late June, an estimated 5,000 organizers gathered in Mali’s capital to demand an end to the recent attacks. The events in Mali have also gained international attention due to the wide speculation that the growing population of Islamic extremists in the area has inflamed tensions after the recent killing of 10 peacekeepers in Mali. On July 10, the UN Secretary-General urged the international community to support West Africa’s fight against armed groups, stating that the violence started in Mali and has spread to Burkina Faso and Niger.

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Grace Harris is an incoming junior at Tampa Preparatory School in Florida, where she serves as the president of her STAND chapter. She also serves on STAND national’s Sudan and Yemen Action Committees, and will be STAND’s State Advocacy Lead for Florida in the 2019-2020 academic year. Grace contributed the Sudan and South Sudan portions of this update.

Megan Smith is a rising senior at the University of Southern California, where she will be working to reestablish a STAND chapter, and is an incoming member of STAND’s Managing Committee co-leading education and outreach. Previously, she has served on the Policy Task Force of STAND France during her junior year and as California State Advocacy Lead during her sophomore year. Outside of STAND, she interned at the nonprofits DigDeep (Los Angeles) and HAMAP-Humanitaire (Paris) and currently works at Dexis Consulting Group (DC). Megan contributed the DRC and Venezuela portions of this update.

Aisha Saleem is a rising sophomore at Barnard College, and a member of STAND’s Managing Committee. Previously, Aisha was a task force member where she contributed to monthly blogs and op-eds about genocide-related issues around the world. She is also interested in current issues in education and enjoys doing neuroscience research. Aisha contributed the Yemen portion of this update.

Abby Edwards is a junior in the Dual BA program between Columbia University and Sciences Po Paris and serves on the STAND USA Managing Committee. Prior to this, Abby served on the Managing Committee of STAND France and worked as an intern for the Buchenwald Memorial, the Journal of European and American Intelligence Studies, and conducted research for the US Department of State – Office of the Historian. This summer, Abby will be conducting research on post-conflict education in Cambodia as a Junior Research Fellow with the Center for Khmer Studies. Abby contributed the Syria portion of this update.

Jan Jan Maran is a rising junior at George Mason University, and is Co-lead of the Burma Action Committee. As member of STAND’s Managing Committee, she is also involved in STAND’s Congo, Sudan, Yemen, and Indegeneous Peoples Committees. She is very passionate about genocide-related issues and enjoys working with organizations like STAND in order speak out against such atrocities. Jan Jan contributed the Burma portion of this update.

Caroline Mendoza is a STAND Managing Committee member and an incoming senior at Cerritos High School in California. She served as STAND’s 2018-2019 West Region Field Organizer, and on STAND’s Burma and Yemen Action Committees. In her free time, Caroline participates in Model United Nations, marching band, and Girl Scouts, and pursues Holocaust and genocide education. Caroline contributed the Mali portion of this update.

ISIS, also known as the Islamic State, has this week seized up to one third of the strategically important Syrian border town of Kobani. Reuters reports that although the United States has launched air strikes against ISIS in an effort to help the remaining beleaguered inhabitants of the largely Kurdish town, the airstrikes have failed to repel them, who continue their invasion of the town apace.

The Turkish government has been non-committal in respects to engaging with ISIS in Kobani, with Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu saying, “It is not realistic to expect Turkey to conduct a ground operation on its own.” Turkish Kurds have been outraged by Turkey’s reluctance to come to the aid of the Kurdish town of Kobani, with resentment turning into violence in southwest Turkey. At least 25 have died as a result of clashes between security forces and incensed Kurds who feel that the government is intentionally letting Kobani suffer. Such reasoning does little to quell the tension between the Turkish government and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), the two of whom have been in armed struggle for thirty years.

Turkey has increasingly pushed for the creation of a buffer zone along its border with Syria, a position that has divided opinion in Washington. Although Turkey has said that the buffer zone would largely be used to protect Turkey’s borders as well as incoming refugees, The New York Times reports that the area would largely be used to train and arm rebels to fight the Assad regime. Frederic C. Hof, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former American envoy to the Syrian opposition, said, “It would mainly be a place where an alternate government structure would take root and for the training of rebels.” The creation of a buffer zone would require American help to create a no-fly zone and repel air attacks by the Syrian government. It would also bring the United States and its coalition into direct confrontation with the Assad regime. The Turkish government has made it clear that they feel Assad is a greater threat than ISIS, and Turkish participation in the fight against the terror organization is contingent on the creation of a buffer zone.

Twenty five people, including four children, were killed Thursday in multiple Syrian government air strikes on a town outside Damascus. The Syrian Human Rights Observatory said the strikes were on Irbin, a town just east Damascus. It is the latest incident of governmental aggression as Assad’s regime has increasingly tried to retake the area around Damascus.

Central African Republic (CAR)

A new wave of heavy clashes broke out in the capital of the Central African Republic, Bengui, last Wednesday. Machine gun and heaven weapons fire began Wednesday night and continued through Thursday morning, though it was not immediately clear who was involved. The heavy weapons fire followed days of escalating violence in the capital. Earlier that day, a Muslim man was decapitated and his body burned in an apparent revenge attack for injuring several people in a grenade attack. Further violence ensued when an unidentified group of Muslims killed a taxi driver and torched several homes. A group of Muslims then tried to march on the capital’s northern districts but were stopped and arrested by European peacekeepers. It is not clear when exactly the heavy gunfire erupted. At least nine have been killed in the clashes so far, including a UN peacekeeper from Pakistan.

The International Committee for the Red Cross (ICRC) announced that direct threats against its volunteers and emergency service were preventing the organization from carrying out its relief efforts in the capital. The organization called for all armed parties to respect the “impartial and humanitarian work of its personnel” and emphasized that the ICRC would have to cease its relief activities if the threats continue.

Last Monday, the mostly Christian anti-balaka rebel coalition called on the president and the prime minister to step down, citing the “chaotic situation in CAR”. Some members of the mainly Muslim Seleka rebel coalition also called for the president’s departure.

Sudan

This week, Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir denied Sudan’s strategic relationship with Iran. Bashir stated that Sudan’s ties with Iran have been exaggerated at the expense of Sudan’s relationship with the Gulf, and Saudi Arabia in particular.

Sudan’s government has authorized two NGOs to operate in east Darfur, an area that has been sealed off from humanitarian assistance since 2010. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported that Sudan has authorized a health assessment of East Darfur to be conducted by NGOs who have not been allowed in the region for four years. The two regions, East Jebel Marra and Beli, are home to 15,000 of the estimated 100,000 people that humanitarian aid has been unable to reach because of Bashir’s ban on humanitarian aid in Darfur. The NGOs now have an opportunity to assist those in need and report on the current situation in the region.

South Sudan ** trigger warning: sexual violence **

This week, the United States urged UN sanctions on South Sudan. The United States envoy to South Sudan’s leader Donald Booth stated that individuals who are responsible for blocking peace in the region should be sanctioned. Although the UN Security Council has the ultimate say in which sanctions are eventually imposed, Booth said the US was not opposed to an arms embargo which could ensure less access to weapons on both sides of the conflict.

Additionally, a report was published this week by a special UN envoy tasked with assessing the levels of rape and sexual violence in South Sudan. The envoy found that levels of rape in South Sudan are the worst the envoy has ever seen. The UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Sexual Violence in Conflict, Zainab Bangura, stated that in all of her 30 years of service she has never seen a situation as dire as it is currently in South Sudan. She said that South Sudan is not a place where women can live because they constantly fear for their safety and their children’s safety. She added that the conditions are worse than her observations in many other countries including Bosnia, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia, and Somalia.

Finally, fighting has resumed south of the state capital, Juba, despite peace talks last week. Both sides blame each other for the attacks. The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM in Opposition), South Sudan’s main armed opposition group, states that it was responding to the government’s continuous attacks and heavy shelling, while the government claims that it was responding to raids by the SPLM in Opposition.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

On October 1, the UN began a specialized training program for female MONUSCO peacekeepers and female soldiers in the Congolese armed forces (FARDC). The training aims to educate female peacekeepers and service members on the importance of UN Security Council Resolution (UNSC) 1325, which recognizes the unique impact of armed conflict on women and girls and emphasizes the contributions of women to peace keeping and peace building processes.

On Monday, Ugandan rebel fighters from the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) militia attacked several communities in the city of Beni, North Kivu, DRC. The attacks left eight civilians dead and several homes looted. Civil society in North Kivu responded by staging a public demonstration condemning the attacks. In late spring 2014, the Congolese army (FARDC) succeeded in driving ADF forces out of Congo. Civilian leaders in Beni expressed frustration at the reemergence of instability in the region.

Early this month, Human Rights Watch (HRW) spoke out against conditions at Kotakoli camp, a center intended to temporarily house nearly 1,000 former combatants from various rebel groups in eastern DRC awaiting their reintegration into civilian or military life. HRW staff and Congolese residents living near Kotakoli describe conditions as reminiscent of those experienced by Somali famine victims. The Congolese government attributes the neglect of Kotakoli residents to a lack of capacity rather than a lack of will.

In a press statement released last week, the UN Security Council (UNSC) again called upon the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to assist the Congolese government in the demobilization of Rwandan FDLR rebels in eastern Congo. Noting that October marks the halfway point of the six-month window given to FDLR militants to disarm, the UNSC expressed concern over the slow rate of repatriation and called upon the Congolese state to pursue military action against rebels who fail to surrender before the deadline.

Burma

Tensions between the Rohingya and Rakhine are mounting following reports of increasing marginalization and discrimination by local authorities in Burma’s western Rakhine (Arakan) State. Reuters reports that it has obtained a draft plan written by the Burmese government that would present an ultimatum to Rohingya living in the country: accept reclassification as illegal migrants and potentially be granted citizenship or be arrested. The plan suggests the creation of more “temporary camps” to house those detained. This news seems bleak after small signs of progress earlier in September when 209 Rohingya were granted some form of citizenship.

The Rohingya are a predominantly Muslim ethnic group and are denied citizenship and other rights by a controversial and widely condemned law from 1982. The Burmese and neighboring Bengali governments do not officially acknowledge the almost 1.5 million Rohingya in their countries but instead identify them as either illegal Burmese or Bengali migrants. Because of this stance, the Rohingya are denied access to education, healthcare, and freedom to travel. This makes the Rohingya stateless and, according to the United Nations, one of the world’s most persecuted. Fighting, which has been labelled ethnic cleansing by Human Rights Watch, regularly occurs between the Rohingya and Buddhist Rakhine in Burma. To date, fighting has killed 192 people and displaced around 140,000 Rohingya to internally displaced persons and refugee camps. Click here to see photos of Rohingya in Mandalay, Burma’s second largest city, following clashes in August.

More news of fighting between the Burma Army and Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA) in Burma’s eastern Karen State has displaced local villagers and halted access to roads. The two groups have been fighting since September, despite a growing effort to establish a national ceasefire agreement between the Burmese government and ethnic militia organizations, including the DKBA. Talks ended last week but are due to resume again in the near future.

Emerging Conflicts: Mali

Peacekeepers in northern Mali were attacked twice in the course of a week.  Nine peacekeepers from Niger were killed on 3 October when gunmen riding motorbike ambushed a UN convoy.  The gunmen were targeting a fuel truck, which would have caused even more damage had it been hit.  A Senegalese UN peacekeeper was killed on October 7th when rocket fire struck a camp of peacekeepers in Kidal.  These attacks follow an attack on Chadian peacekeepers in Kidal in September when a roadside bomb killed five.  According to UN peacekeeping chief Herve Ladsous, 31 peacekeepers have been killed and 91 injured since the mission began in July 2013.

The attacks were widely condemned. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon was “shocked and outraged” following the 3 October attack. Mali’s foreign minister Abdoulaye Diop said that he fears that Mali could become a destination for “hoards of terrorists.”

The conflict in Mali began in 2012 when Tuareg separatists and al-Qaeda linked militants in the north of the country rebelled.  France took an active role in the conflict and the UN established a peacekeeping force in 2013.  Prior to the recent attacks fighting had slowed and Tuareg rebels had commenced peace talks with the Malian government.  The most recent attacks come after France had begun withdrawing troops from Mali in preparation for a regional security force.

9. African Union begins investigating Sudan and South Sudan’s opposing claims that they are supporting rebels in each other’s territory

8. Darfuris launch new attack on central Sudan

7. Aid agencies in DRC worried that possible UN intervention could make humanitarian situation worse

6. 5 injured in Burma by explosion during anti-Muslim monk’s event

5. Germany launches poster campaign to track remaining Nazi criminals

4. Mali’s interim president meets with Tuareg opposition

3. Top US military officer Dempsey outlines 5 US options for action in Syria

2. Human Rights Watch says Egypt is detaining Syrian refugees without charge

1. UN official arrives in Syria to research chemical weapons allegations

Though violent insurgency in northern Mali is not a new phenomenon, the current crisis in Mali started in January of 2012 when Tuareg separatists, an Arab ethnic group in northern Mali, allied with Islamists and launched a rebellion against the Malian government in Bamako.  In the face of the Tuareg advance, the Malian army retreated without much resistance.  In response to a perceived lack of government effort in funding and organizing the war effort, Malian officers mutinied, and the mutiny ended up toppling the government.  The leaders of this mutiny installed a military junta to rule the country.  This new government was also unable to stop the rebel advance.  Over the course of the war, Tuaregs, mostly represented by the National Movements for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), lost internal power to Islamists from Ansar Dine and the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO).  As the rebels approached Bamako, former colonial power France stepped in at the request of the junta, driving the rebels back into the northern desert with the help of Chadian troops and crucial air support.  French troops pulled out recently, leaving security work to Malian and African forces and a UN peacekeeping mission.

There were multiple causes of the conflict.  Many Tuareg had fought in Libya as mercenaries for Gaddafi, and following his fall, heavily-armed, well-trained Tuaregs flowed back in northern Mali.  Tuaregs have been historically neglected by the Malian government, and numerous Tuareg rebellions have happened in the past.  While Tuaregs constituted a type of economic elite in Northern Mali, they had comparatively little political power.  Tuaregs are spread out across several countries, but they do not form a majority in any (they are not even the majority in sparsely-populated northern Mali).  A struggle for control of trade and smuggling networks was also a main cause of the rebellion.  Finally, following initial military success of Tuareg separatists, local and Algerian-based Islamists joined the cause when they sensed the opportunity to implement Sharia in an entire country.  While the situation on the ground is much changed from the height of the rebellion, many of the conflict’s drivers continue to create tension.

The French intervention was crucial in upending the rebel advantage, but it did little to address the root causes of the crisis.  The French approach was a short intervention aimed at nothing more than gaining a military advantage.  The lack of a diplomatic front meant the metaphorical can was just kicked farther down the road.  Local tensions, which caused splits even within rebel groups, continue to fester.  While racial frictions within Northern Mali remain an issue, north-south tension threatens the precarious stability and territorial integrity of the country.  Though the MNLA supported the French during the latter stages of the intervention, the government in Bamako and Mali’s non-Tuaregs are still deeply suspicious of the organization.  A preliminary agreement was signed between Bamako and MNLA, but political pressures have prevented most major southern politicians from endorsing the deal.  With further negotiations after the national election scheduled for July 28^th needed to solidify the agreement, the chances for a future, inclusive peace deal aren’t looking up.  And while the Malian army has finally gained the permission of the MNLA to enter the organization’s stronghold town of Kidal, there is not a clear disarmament plan for former rebels.

Many problems produced during the pre-crisis period and the French intervention remain in Mali, and the proposed solutions look unlikely to fix most of them.  The UN peacekeeping mission in Mali is currently short of funding due to the inertia of the US budgeting process, and will take awhile to reach its full strength of 12,640 soldiers.  In the meantime, much of northern Mali will remain as ungoverned spaces.  The lack of state presence, in the form of both governance and military force, allows many former combatants (mostly Islamists) to fade back into the general population.  Without an effective demobilization, disarmament, and reintegration (DDR) program for northern Mali, many of these ex-combatants will become active in moments of instability in the future (though it will be because of national issues rather than international jihad).  The upcoming elections have more riding on them than any other proposed solution, but they are almost certainly destined to fail.  The distribution of national ID cards needed for Malians to cast their votes is behind schedule, and many Malian politicians have been frank with the fact the country is not ready for elections.  Due to the delay, Malian professor Issa N’Diayetold the VOA, “The vote will be legal, but it won’t be legitimate.”  These elections are therefore unlikely to give the Malian people much confidence in their new government.  Unsecured sham elections could well instigate another crisis.  As Severine Autesserre warns in her book The Trouble with the Congo, Western peacebuilders often push elections too quickly on societies coming out of episodes of severe violence, leading to a broken political system.  She argues that the massive resources required to organize an election would be better spent on local peacebuilding initiatives that stabilize a country and help prepare it for future elections.  This mistake looks set to be repeated again in Mali.

Following France’s intervention in northern Mali four days ago, the prospects for a rebel advance to Bamako look bleak.  Despite a brief resurgence of the rebel advance following initial French airstrikes, it looks as if French firepower will halt further rebel movements southward.  Though the French intervention has changed the military dynamics for the immediate future, it has done next to nothing to address the root causes of the conflict, and furthermore, regional stability.  The Mali crisis, which has now become the Sahel crisis, is too complicated for a purely military solution, and so the UN and regional actors must get serious about their diplomatic efforts.