Sudan and South Sudan

Sudan

On April 11, 2019,  after a week of thousands of protestors camping outside the nation’s military headquarters, the Sudanese military announced that President Omar al-Bashir had been arrested and ousted, marking the end of al-Bashir’s 30 year rule as an uncompromising and relentless ruler. On April 12, defense minister Lt. Gen. Awad Mohamed Ahmed Ibn Auf announced he would head a two year transitional period through a military council, with terms including the dissolution of the government and 10PM curfews for all citizens. Increased protests caused Ibn Auf to step down as head of the military council within 36 hours and he was replaced by Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan who lifted certain restrictions including curfews. After episodic violence during the protests, a 10-member delegation of protest organizers met with the military council at the country’s army headquarters in Khartoum. The military has agreed to allow civilian representatives on a supreme council to aid in the governing of Sudan, but refuse to allow a civilian majority out of fear of being overpowered and outvoted. Members of the military council have suggested three civilians and seven soldiers with a maximum of half of the council’s members consisting of civilian representatives. As of May 2, 2019, the Declaration of Freedom and Change Forces (DFCF), a group of opposition leaders, has submitted a draft constitution with proposals for a cabinet and a 120-person legislature during the transitional period. The DFCF is expecting a response from the military within two to three days, leaving the future of Sudan’s governance still up to negotiations.

South Sudan

Since South Sudan’s independence from Sudan in 2011 after a war over oil, religion, and ethnicity, the nation is once again in conflict and looking to commit to peace. As of April 18, 2019, opposition leader Riek Machar postponed the formation of a unified government until safety issues were resolved, as 2016’s peace agreements ended in Machar fleeing gunfire from President Salva Kiir’s troops. Machar’s return would have marked the establishment of a power-sharing government with Machar as vice president and Kiir as President. SPLM-IO, Machar’s rebel group, proposed delaying the formation of a transitional government for six more months as issues such as lacking security control and a unified South-Sudanese army have yet to be addressed.

Great Lakes of Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

In early April, the Democratic Republic of the Congo held gubernatorial elections for its 26 provinces after a two-week-long postponement due to allegations of vote buying among provincial delegates. Before votes were even announced, 11 people were injured in clashes between supporters of newly-elected President Felix Tshisekedi and his predecessor Joseph Kabila in Lubumbashi. On April 11, it was determined that, months after losing the seat to his presidency, Joseph Kabila’s party, Common Front for Congo (FCC), had claimed victory in 16 of the provinces while Tshisekedi’s party won only one province while an opposition faction was successful in one other. (The remaining provinces were either postponed or will require a second round of votes.) With this announcement, Kabila’s party currently holds comfortable majorities in both houses of parliament as well as provincial governorships, thus ensuring that the country has not yet rid themselves of Kabila. As a result of the provincial election results, Al Jazeera has reported that supporters of Tshisekedi took to the streets protesting against the landslide victory of the FCC while simultaneously trying to hold off claims made by Martin Fayulu, candidate in the December election, that the presidential election was the result of a deal brokered between Tshisekedi and Kabila.

April has also marked a deadly month in the DRC as a result of the months-long Ebola outbreak that has plagued the country. More than 1,000 people have died from Ebola in eastern Congo since August, and as of May 4 the number has risen to 1,008. Despite these staggering statistics, however, it was determined by an expert panel of the World Health Organization (WHO) that the crisis would not be declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) as of April 12. Professionals have predicted that this could have deadly consequences as such an announcement is necessary to draw greater attention and funding to fighting Ebola in the country.

Middle East

Yemen

The United States Senate failed to override Donald Trump’s veto of the Yemen War Powers Resolution, a bipartisan measure to end US military support for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, on Thursday, May 2 with a 53-45 vote. Currently, the US provides intelligence and sells arms and ammunition to the coalition, all of which are used to fuel the worsening humanitarian crisis in Yemen. This unfortunate vote comes at a time when over 70,000 people have been killed in the conflict between the Houthi rebels and the Saudi-led coalition since January 2016 and over 12.6 million are in need of drinking water and adequate sanitation services. Cases of cholera are rampant among the millions of Yemeni citizens in need of humanitarian aid, with some areas seeing as many as 2,000 cases or suspected cases of cholera per week. Humanitarian groups have been blocked by fighting, restrictions to access certain areas, and bureaucratic difficulties, making it incredibly difficult to mitigate the worst of the crisis and keeping many Yemeni citizens from receiving lifesaving aid.

After the Stockholm Agreement in December, in which Yemen’s Houthi rebels and its internationally recognized government made concessions with the goal of mitigating conflict, the warring groups agreed to withdraw troops from Hodeidah Hodeidah has been and continues to be a significant port city as it is the main entry for 70% of imports, including humanitarian aid. However, in a press statement released on April 17, the UN Security Council expressed concern that the agreements are not being implemented. Both parties have been urged to follow through on the agreement to de-escalate the conflict, although a disagreement about which group should control Hodeidah has hindered this approach.

Syria

Since the removal of ISIS from Syrian territory, thousands of women and children have fled to refugee camps within the country. With 12,000 women and children now residing within these camps — many of whom are the families of ISIS fighters— their potential repatriation has garnered international attention. In just one camp in northeastern Syria, 2,500 children of ISIS fighters are being held which has prompted the International Committee for the Red Cross to urge that these children be repatriated to their country of origin.

In the past month, Russian and Syrian-led air-raids have recommenced in what was once a demilitarized zone in Northwestern Syria. Schools, health facilities, and residential areas within the “safe-zone” have all been hit. Additionally, the UN regional humanitarian coordinator reported that the area was experiencing the worst barrel bombing in fifteen months. These barrel bombs are found to have killed at least 15 civilians. The increase in attacks is exemplified by the May 5th targeting of three hospitals. Two of the hospitals were put out of service and one, The Nabad Al Hayat Hospital was destroyed.

Reliefweb reports that, since April 21, 231,087 individuals have been displaced and 462,496 remain under attack. Additionally, in this time, at least one hundred civilians have been killed.  In the end of March, there were 6.2 million internally displaced people within the country and 11.7 people in need of humanitarian assistance.

Southeast Asia

Burma

In the past month, the Burmese government has continued to refuse to change its treatment of the Rohingya minority and has initiated a crackdown against critics of the government and national armed forces, refusing the right to freedom of speech and expression. Especially concerning was the Supreme Court’s decision to uphold seven-year prison sentences of two reporters in apparent retaliation for their implication of the armed forces in an investigation of a massacre of Rohingya villagers in Inn Din, Rakhine State. The situation of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh remains concerning as the government is ill-equipped to deal with the massive influx of refugees resulting in food shortages within refugee camps and the mistreatment of Rohingya refugees by Bangladeshi police, as well as the refusal of access to education for refugee children. Bangladesh is hoping to repatriate Rohingya as soon as possible after initial repatriation plans were delayed in November of 2018 but many refuse to return to the country until changes are made.

Throughout the past month, the international community has issued several responses to the persecution of the Rohingya. On April 29th, the EU council extended an embargo on arms and other materials that could be used for internal repression, issued travel bans to Myanmar, and froze assets on 14 top officials connected to serious human rights violations. These extensions will last until April 30, 2020. Efforts to address the persecution of the Rohingya have also been made in the U.S., where a bill proposing sanctions against the Burmese government due to their treatment of the Rohingya was introduced to the Senate on April 12th. Additionally, the status of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh was discussed at length during talks between the Russian and Bangladeshi governments on April 29th. During this discussion, Russia agreed to back Bangladesh in promoting the timely repatriation of the Rohingya by encouraging the Burmese government to create a safe environment for the Rohingya within their own home country. In April, UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Mark Lowcock, head of UN migration agency (IOM) António Vitorino, and UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Filippo Grandi took a joint visit to Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh. After this trip, the officials reiterated their concern for the Rohingya, imploring the Burmese government to end persecution and asking the international community to support the Bangladeshi government in providing aid to Rohingya refugees. The UN also condemned the deportation of 3 Rohingya refugees who were returned to Burma from India due to their lack of documentation.

Emerging Crises

Venezuela 

The situation in Venezuela continues to escalate. On April 30, Guaidó asked Venezuelans to join the “final phase” of the efforts to topple Maduro. On May Day, protestors took to the streets once again to demand Maduro’s resignation and they were violently suppressed with tear gas and rubber bullets. The military did not follow Guaidó’s demands for a revolt, exemplifying Maduro’s strong hold. On May 2, Maduro spoke on national television to frame the military’s support as a victory over the opposition’s attempt at a United States-backed coup.

The US claims that Maduro was prepared to flee if the military did follow Guaidó’s request, saying he had a plane ready to take him to Cuba. Maduro’s Administration denies these claims. These comments are the most recent mention of the United States’ “threatening drumbeat” to overthrow the Maduro regime, which includes talks of military intervention. The increasingly violent protests and suppression combined with threats of foreign intervention and seemingly everlasting economic suffering puts Venezuela in a dire situation, with political violence seeming more likely by the moment.

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Megan Rodgers, who contributed to the Burma section of this brief, is a student at The University of Arkansas. Megan serves on STAND’s Burma and Democratic Republic of Congo Action Committees.

Grace Harris, who contributed to the Sudan section of this brief, is a sophomore at Tampa Preparatory School in Florida, where she serves as the president of her STAND chapter. Grace serves on STAND national’s Sudan and Yemen Action Committees.

Casey Bush, who contributed to the DRC section of this brief, is a graduate student at Clark University and one of STAND’s Student Co-Directors. She is a member of all of STAND’s Action Committees.

Grace Fernandes, who contributed to the Syria section of this brief, is a junior at Simmons University and one of STAND’s Student Co-Directors. She leads STAND’s Indigenous Peoples Action Committee and works with Simmons Amnesty International, an affiliate of STAND.

Caroline Mendoza, who contributed to the Sudan and South Sudan section of this brief, is a junior at Cerritos High School in California, and serves on the STAND Managing Committee. She is a member of the Burma and Yemen Action Committees.

Zachary Gossett, who contributed to the Venezuela section of this brief, is a sophomore at Butler University and a member of STAND’s Managing Committee. He serves on the Indigenous Peoples and Burma Action Committees.

The National League for Democracy (NLD) has confirmed it will contest the upcoming elections despite their leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, remaining banned from becoming President.  Suu Kyi said they have a plan to deal with the problem, and the NLD has said it will select an NLD member to run for President.  Majority leader of the US Senate Mitch McConnell has criticized Burma’s government for keeping the Constitutional provision barring Suu Kyi from becoming President, and has said that Burma should not receive trade benefits until after the election.

Religious freedom in Burma may take a blow if the President signs a bill on interfaith marriage into law.  Parliament passed a bill that would require Buddhist women to get approval from local authorities to marry a man of another faith.  The bill is strongly back by the Buddhist nationalist organization Ma Ba Tha.  In Rakhine State, few Rohingya have taken the new green cards on offer by the Burmese government, as they must identify themselves as Bengali in order to get the card.  Only 1,600 Rohingya have applied for green cards, which replace the 400,000 white cards that the government revoked earlier this year.

Rebels from the Democratic Karen Benevolence Army (DKBA) continues to fight the Burmese military in a battle over the Asia Highway in Karen State.  At least four DKBA soldiers and seven Burmese army soldiers have been killed in the clashes.  There was also shelling in Shan State, where fighting between the Kachin Independence Army and the Burmese Army killed one person and hundreds of civilians were forced to flee.

Central African Republic (CAR)

The Central African transition government has controversially decided to exclude refugees from the upcoming election.  More than 460,000 people who fled to neighboring countries will be unable to vote.  As refugees are disproportionately Muslim, Muslims will have less influence in the election.  Various UN agencies have expressed their concern about the decision.

French Foreign Affairs Minister Laurent Fabius visited CAR this week.  His visit was designed to show support for transitional President Catherine Samba-Panza and an eight million euro budgetary aid agreement, much of which will go to support the upcoming elections.  However, it also drew a great deal of attention to the alleged child sexual abuse committed by French peacekeepers in CAR.

MINUSCA, the UN peacekeeping force in the Central African Republic, will receive 750 new troops after the Republic of the Congo sent the soldiers to replace soldiers that had served for over a year.  However, in an unrelated situation, 20 peacekeepers will be sent home for excessive use of force in an incident that killed two people.

In Bangui, unidentified gunmen attacked Central African police, wounding two officers.  The attack came several days after unidentified gunmen attacked the state radio station.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

The DRC is stepping up the process of decoupage, which will separate the country’s 11 provinces into 26 provinces.  Nine new provinces were implemented in the last week.  The DRC’s government has announced that gubernatorial elections for the new provinces will take place between July 27th and 31st.

Six people were abducted in Orientale Province in an attack believed to be committed by the LRA.  Also, in Walikale territory in North Kivu, the APCLS kidnapped ten people.  In response to this type of attack, citizens in Walikale have organized self-defense militias, citing lack of protection from police and military.  In Ituri, the Ituri Patriotic Resistance Force attacked a camp for displaced people.  One rebel leader seems unlikely to lead further attacks.  Jamil Mukulu of the Ugandan Islamist group Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) was extradited to Uganda from Tanzania to face trial.

The European Union has pressured the Congolese government to release two civil society activists who have been held since their arrest in March.  Government spokesman Lambert Mende rejected the EU’s recommendation as meddling in the internal affairs of a sovereign country.

South Sudan

The South Sudanese government has made clear its displeasure with the UN’s recent actions.  In response to the UN’s report that found the South Sudanese army guilty of human rights abuses, South Sudan has expelled one UN official and may expel another.  President Kiir also criticized the imposition of sanctions on three South Sudanese commanders.  UN secretary-General has continued his efforts, however, and called on South Sudanese leaders to find a political solution and stop the violence.  The executive director of the South Sudan Human Right Society for Advocacy has also called on President Kiir to stop the violence.

Local violence has continued at a large scale in Lakes state.  Nine people were killed in clashes between the Panyon and Dhiei clans.  Then, 27 people were killed in a raid on Pappul cattle camp, including a number of civilians.

The rising price of water is putting more people at risk of cholera as people will have less access to clean water.  Since June, there have been 790 cases of cholera and 33 people have died in the cholera outbreak that originated in a displaced person’s camp in Juba.

Sudan

Hassan al-Turabi, leader of the Popular Congress Party (PCP), said that he was confident that Sudan’s Islamists would reunite within the next year.  It seems unlikely Sudan’s Islamists all agree, but Turabi did meet with President Omar al-Bashir this week.  The two had considered the other an enemy since Turabi split from the National Congress Party in 1999 to form the PCP, but relations between the two have thawed in the last year.

Opposition parties in the national dialogue have held talks with opposition parties that have not yet joined the dialogue in an attempt to convince them to join.  However, talks between the Sudanese government and the SPLM-N are not going well, and the Sudanese government has accused the SPLM-N of having unrealistic demands and being at fault for the failure of peace talks.

President Omar al-Bashir visited Saudi Arabia to discuss building closer ties between the countries with the Saudi King.  This marks a shift in Sudan’s alliances after Sudan distanced itself from Iran earlier this year.  President al-Bashir also completed the umrah while on the trip.

Twelve Sudanese women in Khartoum faced 40 lashes after they were arrested for wearing trousers.  The women were Christian and originally from the Nuba Mountains, and while three were not sentenced to flogging, the possibility remains for the nine other women.

Syria

ISIS and the Syrian military engaged in heavy fighting around the city of Palmyra.  Syrian forces closed in on the city and killed over 30 ISIS fighters, but ISIS then captured over 100 Syrian soldiers in an ambush.  The Assad regime did have a victory in Zabadani, where Hezbollah and Syrian army forces took the main entrance to the city, which is close to the border to Lebanon.

The US has continued launching heavy airstrikes against ISIS, with 16 in Syria this past weekend.  Two senior leaders of ISIS were killed in the attacks.

The conflict continues to have huge costs on Syrian civilians.  In Aleppo, a drought is causing a water shortage for civilians, who also struggle to access water due to restricted movement caused by fighting and attacks on water sources.  Meanwhile, in response to the shortage of funds for Syrian refugees, Nobel Peace Prize winner Malala Yousafzai has called world leaders “quite stingy.”

Emerging Conflicts: Burundi

Burundi remains on the brink as controversy over President Pierre Nkurunziza’s run for a third term continues.  Nkurunziza decided to run despite strong opposition and doubts over the constitutionality of his decision.  In light of the ongoing unrest, presidential elections have been pushed back from their originally scheduled date of July 15th to July 21st.  Parliamentary elections recently took place and were won by Nkurunziza’s CNDD-FDD party, but the elections were marred by an opposition boycott and strong doubts over their legitimacy.  Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has been called in to mediate between the CNDD-FDD and the opposition.

There also seems to have been an upsurge in violence.  Burundi’s military announced that it had killed 31 opposition rebels and captured 170 in the country’s north.  The exact allegiances and identity of the rebels remains unconfirmed.  There have also been a number of grenade attacks in the capital city, Bujumbura.  However, there may be hope in the disarmament of the CNDD-FDD’s youth wing, the Imbonerakure.  The group has long been considered a dangerous potential source of violence, but Ugandan President Museveni said that they had been disarmed.  This would be welcome news, but it does confirm that the Imbonerakure were armed and doubts remain about the extent of their disarmament.

Nkurunziza had been hinting at a third term for many months.  His party maintained that he was eligible as he had been elected by Parliament, rather than voters, for his first term, thus eliminating his first term from consideration in the two-term limit.  Opposition parties strongly rejected these claims, and when the CNDD-FDD announced on April 25th that Nkurunziza would run again, protests broke out.  Large-scale protests continued for weeks, with the Nkurunziza government cracking down heavily on protesters, the media, and the opposition.

On May 13th, Nkurunziza was in Tanzania attending a regional summit on the crisis.  General Godefroid Niyombare, Nkurunziza’s former Intelligence Chief who was fired for his opposition to the third term, announced that Nkurunziza’s government had been dismissed.  Nkurunziza attempted to return to the country but his plane was turned away.  After returning to Tanzania he maintained his intention to return to the country, and over the next day many conflicting reports of his location emerged.  In Burundi’s capital, Bujumbura, Nkurunziza loyalists fought off the attempted coup.  On May 15th, Nkurunziza returned to the country and the coup leaders admitted their failure.  Prior to the coup, the military had been seen as a relatively successful organization.  During the past few weeks of protest, while the police had reacted heavily to protesters, the military had been a relatively stabilizing force.  The military factionalized, however, and sections of the military supported the coup while others opposed it.

Protests continued after the coup and the opposition maintained their stance opposing a third term.  On May 23rd, the leader of the Union for Peace and Development, Zedi Feruzi, was assassinated.  Although the perpetrator has not been confirmed, it is suspected to be someone affiliated with Nkurunziza, and many opposition parties responded by announcing a boycott of the election.  Due to the unrest, elections were postponed and the government eventually decided to schedule Parliamentary elections for June 26th and Presidential elections for July 15th.  In response to the actions of the Nkurunziza government, the influential Catholic Church withdrew its support for the elections.  Agathon Rwasa, leader of the main opposition party, the FNL, altered his position on boycotting the elections repeatedly,and although he opposes the actions of Nkrunziza’s government, he no longer intends to boycott.

Most media sources continues to be shut down, as are all the universities.  Around 80 people have been killed since April and over 100,000 people fled to neighboring countries during the peak of the conflict.  Grenade attacks, usually against police, have increased in frequency and opposition supporters are suspected.  There are also threats of violence from the Imbonerakure, the youth wing of the CNDD-FDD.  It seems likely that Nkurunziza will win the upcoming elections, as the the opposition’s chances of victory will be hindered by their fragmented nature, Nkurunziza’s repression, and their limited campaigning as a result of their threats to boycott.  Nkurunziza also holds great popularity in rural areas.  On the diplomatic front, the US has stated its opposition to Nkurunziza’s third term, and the UN has repeatedly expressed their concern at the situation and appointed a special envoy to aid peace efforts.

The conflict has demonstrated some positives.  For one, if crisis is averted, it could very well go down as a model of atrocity prevention.  Burundi has long been marked as a country at risk of conflict, and the atrocity prevention community has been able to quickly implement a fairly coordinated response.  Also, conflicts provoked by this crisis have remained political and not ethnic, unlike the 1972 genocide and the Civil War from 1993 to 2005.  Still, there remain many dangers.  As conflict progresses politicians may attempt to mobilize along ethnic lines.  Also, the opposition may turn to more violent methods due to their failure to create change in the political arena.  Finally, it is unclear how the country will react to an expected Nkurunziza victory in July’s election.  It is possible that this crisis is eventually seen as a hiccup on the path to a more prosperous Burundi, but there could just as easily be far worse to come.

Timmy Hirschel-Burns is a rising junior at Swarthmore College and STAND’s Policy Intern.  You can follow him on Twitter at TimH_B

The flow of Rohingya refugees has slowed since its peak a few weeks ago, but the problems still remain.  Large numbers of Rohingya refugees, often transported in boats by traffickers demanding large sums, attempted to leave repression in Burma and refugee camps in Bangladesh.  Their primary destinations were Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, but these countries mostly turned away refugees who were then left stranded.  At this point, many smugglers left the refugees at sea, and there are even mass graves where smugglers are believed to have left refugees.  The Burmese government has responded to the crisis by increasing efforts to prevent the flow of refugees.  However, they maintain that the Rohingya are Bengali, not Burmese, and refuse to improve their conditions.  Many Burmese share this view, and 500 people marched in Sittwe to protest the return of Rohingya refugees to Rakhine State.  Pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, who recently visited China, has maintained her silence on the situation of the Rohingya, likely because of a fear of losing popularity as she runs for President.  Bangladesh’s response to the crisis has been to propose moving its 32,000 registered Rohingya refugees to a frequently flooded island.

500 Rohingya were recently granted Burmese citizenship, reportedly after officially accepting the government’s label as Bengali.  However, the government has restricted their movement, arguing that this is necessary for protecting their safety.

In Shan State, the Myanmar Nationalities Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) unilaterally declared a ceasefire with the Burmese government.  The Khokane rebels cited a desire for elections to go forward peacefully, and the decision also closely followed a summit of ethnic armed organizations that they attended.

Central African Republic (CAR)

The Central African Republic is preparing for parliamentary elections next month.  The UN Peacebuliding commission has called on all stakeholders to support a successful atmosphere for the upcoming elections.  However, they have acknowledged that the budget for the elections is $21 million short, and they called for additional support from international partners.

A new study by Save the Children has found that over 60% of school-aged children in the Central African Republic suffer from PTSD.  They found 91% of children have experience fear of death or serious injury, and large portions of children have witnessed serious acts of violence.  The Enough Project also released a new report which found that armed groups in the country have extensive profit-generating operations.

Pope Francis has announced that he is planning a visit to the Central African Republic in November, and he hopes the trip comes before the presidential transition.

DR Congo (DRC)

The DRC military (FARDC) has launched operations with UN forces against the Ituri Patriotic Resistance Front (FRPI).  The operation marks a return to military cooperation between the UN and FARDC, who have not worked together since the UN rejected cooperation with FARDC in an operation against the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) after the Congolese government appointed generals with records of human rights abuses for the operation.  The operation against the FRPI, a local militia of several hundred fighters, has led to the death of 34 FRPI fighters and four members of FARDC, while the civil death toll is unclear.  In Walikale, clashes between factions of the Raia Mutomboki have led to civilian insecurity.

The Executive Secretary of the International Conference on the Great Lakes region says the repatriation of M23 fighters should finish in August.  Meanwhile, the founder of M23, Bosco Ntaganda, is set to undergo trial at the International Criminal Court in the Hague.  Due to concerns about the safety and emotional wellbeing of victims, the ICC somewhat controversially decided not to hold the hearing in the northeastern DRC city of Bunia.  Ntaganda is charged with 18 counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity.  He is the first suspect to voluntarily surrender themselves to the ICC.

In other news, 220 Congolese NGOs and 14 international NGOs have demanded the release of two activists arrested in a raid on a pro-democracy meeting in Kinshasa in March.  They are charged with plotting against President Joseph Kabila.  Verisk Maplecroft also published their corruption index this week, and the DRC topped the list.

South Sudan

South Sudanese rebels in Northern Bahr el Ghazal have claimed that as many as 200 government troops defected to join their ranks.  The rebels are under the command of Riek Machar, who recently met with Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete to discuss the Arusha SPLM Intraparty dialogue.  The UN also told the African Union that it would support its efforts to resolve the conflict.  The peace process is not going entirely smoothly, however, and President Salva Kiir has rejected the most recent IGAD peace proposal.  As the conflict continues, civilian casualties grow and UNICEF documented the deaths of 129 children in May in Unity State.  There could also be another layer to the conflict, as the South Sudanese government accused the Sudanese government of carrying out an air attack in Upper Nile state.

The conflict has led to a humanitarian crisis, and 4.6 million people are in need of food assistance, according to the UN office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.  The US has announced it will contribute another $133 million to assist displaced South Sudanese civilians.  Aid agencies took a hit in Jonglei state, however, where bandits broke into the office of the Jonglei Food Security Program and stole $147,000.

In an effort to stop the conflict, Humanity United, Human Rights Watch, the Enough Project, United to End Genocide, the American Jewish World Service, and the National Association of Evangelicals called on the US to impose targeted sanctions against individuals in South Sudan who have committed serious human rights violations.  The South Sudanese government did not agree, calling the NGOs’ actions a “disincentive” for peace.  The NGOs are not the only ones examining targeted sanctions.  The African Union proposed sanctions on parties that do not comply with the peace process, and the UN also has a team of investigators in the country to determine if some individuals and parties should be the targets of sanctions.

Sudan

The biggest story in Sudan this week was the escape of President Omar al-Bashir from South Africa.  Al-Bashir, wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide, travelled to Rome Statute signatory South Africa for an African Union Summit.  He has travelled to other countries obliged to arrest him before, and South Africa’s government was prepared to allow him to visit without arresting him.  However, after al-Bashir arrived, a court issued an order barring him from leaving the country in the next day, as the determined whether South Africa had an obligation to arrest al-Bashir and send him to stand trial at the Hague.  While they were making their decision, al-Bashir managed to leave the country.

Sudanese forces were attacked by rebels in West Darfur this week.  Negotiations took place between the Sudanese government, the African Union, and the United Nations to create an exit strategy for the peacekeeping mission in Darfur (UNAMID).  However, the UN has refused to sign an agreement.  Meanwhile, Darfur’s National Liberation and Justice Party has suspended their partnership with the ruling National Congress Party and withdrawn from the Sudanese government.

Syria

The Assad regime has suffered a number of losses to extremists and the moderate opposition and is in its weakest position for quite some time.  The Southern Front, an affiliate of the Free Syrian Army, seized a military base in Deraa.  In Palmyra, ISIS forced Syrian government forces to flee, and they are now close to gas plants that supply 50% of Syria’s electricity.  Rebel forces led by Jabhat al-Nusra let the last area held by the regime in Idlib province.  In the US, the House Foreign Affairs Committee heard testimony on the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons and barrel bombs.  In a separate statement, Secretary of State John Kerry said he is “absolutely certain” the Assad regime used chlorine gas.  President Assad has recently agreed with UN Peace Envoy Staffan de Mistura to continue talks towards a political solution to the conflict.

Kurdish militia group YPG, with some support from Free Syrian Army forces, advanced on ISIS stronghold Tal Abyad and engaged in heavy fighting.  Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is not impressed with Kurdish rebels, however, and has accused the West of backing terrorist Kurdish rebels.

In Idlib province, Jabhat al-Nusra forces massacred 20 Druze villagers.  Although al-Nusra considers Druze heretics, they had pledged not to attack religious minorities that did not oppose them.  However, after one Druze man was suspected of supporting the Syrian regime, a clash broke out and al-Nusra forces began massacring Druze villagers.

Emerging Conflicts: Yemen

Yemen’s conflict rages on and shows few signs of abating.  The Islamic State has stepped up their involvement in the conflict, detonating four car bombs in Sanaa.  The bombs targeted four Houthi buildings: two mosques, a house, and an office.  Dozens of people were killed.  In Southern Yemen, 31 people were killed when a Saudi airstrike hit a convoy of civilians fleeing violence.  A US airstrike struck and killed Nasir al-Wuhayshi, al-Qaeda’s second in command and the leader of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.  The US was originally unaware of al-Wuhayshi’s whereabouts, and the airstrike was not aimed at him.

Peace talks in Geneva between Houthis and the exiled government have led to little progress.  The Houthis seem to favor a truce but are unwilling to accept the conditions proposed by the other party.  The parties refuse to sit in the same room and rely on UN intermediaries to convey messages, and there was even a fistfight between members of the different parties.

The conflict has created a humanitarian crisis in the country.  The UN has said 6 million people are in urgent need of food assistance, with 10 of Yemen’s 22 governorates facing an “emergency level” of food insecurity.  Saudi Arabia promised $274 million in emergency aid to assist Yemeni civilians, but two months later it still has not arrived.  Matters have been made even worse as an outbreak of Dengue fever has infected thousands in Southern Yemen.

Sixteen Burmese soldiers were killed and over 100 wounded during fighting between the Burmese Army and the Kokang rebels of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). The fighting erupted on Thursday, April 16 in northeastern Burma near the border with China. More than 40 civilians were injured according to reports. The fighting comes just after a draft national ceasefire agreement was reached last week and the Burmese Army apologized to Beijing for bombing rebels in Chinese territory. In the past two months, fighting between the Burmese Army and MNDAA has killed over 100 people and displaced thousands of civilians, though the exact number is not known due to the remote location of the conflict.

On Friday, April 10, the first of six party talks on constitutional reform was held. The talks’ six participants include President Thein Sein, opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, speaker of the lower house of parliament Shwe Man, speaker of the upper house of Parliament Khin Aung Myint, commander-in-chief of the military Ming Aung Hlaing, and ethnic representative Aye Maung. The group agreed to amend the constitution written in 2008, which many critics believe give too much power to the once-ruling military. Currently, one in every four seats of Burma’s parliament are reserved for military personnel. Additionally, the constitution bans candidates with foreign-born children from running for president, a clause many believe was written specifically to target Aung San Suu Kyi.

The Burmese government has reportedly hired a Washington, DC lobbying firm, the Podesta Group, to represent the country’s interests in the United States at the cost of $840,000 per annum. The Podesta Group was established in the late 1980s, and its founders have close ties to the Clinton and Obama Administrations, as well as Hillary Clinton’s current presidential campaign.

Central African Republic (CAR)

On April 13, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) reported that it reunited eleven displaced children with their families in the Central African Republic. The children were forced to seek refuge in Chad over a year ago in the wake of CAR’s sectarian civil war. This was the first family reunion operation between Chad and the Central African Republic since the start of the conflict in December 2013, though one of many that the ICRC conducts on a periodic basis.

The environment was less optimistic at the United Nations Security Council, where on April 14 the Secretary-General’s Special Representative, Babacar Gaye, told the body’s representatives that conflict between Muslim Séléka and Christian anti-Balaka militias are still ongoing. He expressed hope however for the upcoming Bangui Forum on reconciliation, which he noted would be an “important milestone” in the CAR’s transition. He also noted that while MINUSCA, the UN peacekeeping force in CAR, has performed remarkably in stabilizing the country, “[r]estoring security, promoting an inclusive political dialogue and completing the transition is just the beginning of the CAR’s long journey towards stability and sustainable development”.

On April 16, President Barack Obama nominated Jeffrey Hawkins Jr., a career foreign service officer, to become the U.S. ambassador to the Central African Republic.  Mr. Hawkins would replaced Ambassador Lawrence Wohlers, who has served as Ambassador to CAR since September 2010.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

The UN Security Council (UNSC) renewed MONUSCO’s mandate at the end of last month, reducing the mission’s troop size by 2,000. The mandate renewal comes at a time of turmoil for many parts of the DRC: armed groups such as the Force de résistance patriotique de l’Ituri (FRPI) and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) remain active in Orientale province, while the FDLR continues to destabilize parts of North Kivu. The renewal also comes at a time of tension between the UN and the Congolese government. While both parties desire a reduction in militia-sponsored violence, Kinshasa refuses to accept UN intervention in its political affairs as the 2016 elections cycle approaches.

Controversy emerged in early April as Congolese authorities acknowledged the existence of a mass grave containing over 400 corpses in Maluku, a suburb of Kinshasa. Authorities reportedly buried the bodies under the cover of darkness on March 19. UN officials continue to call for the government to exhume the bodies, while the state remains ambiguous on any action it plans to take. While the Kabila administration maintains that the deceased include unborn fetuses and members of the Kinshasa homeless community, advocates suspect that the number may also include victims of government suppression related to pro-democracy activism. The interim governor of Kinshasa, Robert Luzolamu Mavema, accused Congo’s Red Cross of complicity in the mass burial, though the organization denies these claims.

In late 2013, the UN deployed its first ever contingent of unarmed aerial vehicles (UAVS or “drones”) in organization history in eastern DRC, to monitor the movements of armed groups across difficult terrain. Some neighboring states voiced concerns that the drones may serve covert purposes across international borders, while others welcomed the technology as a tool to combat illegal militias. In February 2015, the UN released a peacekeeping performance report favoring the use of UAV technology in conflict regions. In late March, the UNSC adopted a resolution calling for accountability in the organization’s use of these “flying cameras.” Many within the UN view drone surveillance as the next frontier for civilian protection and combating human rights abuses.

Syria

Last week, Islamic State forces besieged the primarily Palestinian refugee-inhabited city of Yarmouk. Since ISIS seized control of the city, the humanitarian situation for the 18,000 residents has rapidly deteriorated. Though the invasion of ISIS has further blocked residents’ access to humanitarian aid, even prior to the siege by ISIS, Syrian military forces impeded the delivery of vital supplies and provision of medical treatment to its residents. United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has called Yarmouk refugee camp “the deepest circle of hell,” and is coordinating a mission to secure humanitarian access to civilians with UNRWA commissioner general, Pierre Krähenbühl. Speculation has emerged that the mission may include negotiations with Islamic State militants. Krähenbühl is currently in Syria consulting the U.N. special envoy on methods of transmitting humanitarian aid to Yarmouk residents.

A new report released by Human Rights Watch claims that the Syrian regime used toxic chemical weapons against Syrian civilians in a spate of barrel bomb attacks this March. The reports are confirmed by recorded videos, as well as eyewitness accounts of civilians, local activists, and journalists. The accounts contain reports of barrel bombings from helicopters, and numerous civilian and medical-practitioners suspecting the use of chlorine as a chemical weapon. Responding to the disclosure of this evidence, a Syrian security official claimed that the accusations were “lies the insurgents say when they incur losses.”

The United Nations has announced a series of peace talks to take place in May, facilitated by U.N. Syria envoy, Staffan de Mistura. According to U.N. spokesman, Stephane Dujarric, the talks will involve separate consultations between de Mistura and key parties involved in the conflict. The talks will entail a revival of the failed 2012 Geneva comminiqué, a proposal that outlined a political transition for Syria but failed to address the future of Bashar al-Assad’s presidency. A U.N. official in Geneva claims that Iran, which did not sign onto the Geneva communiqué, may participate in the talks, though this has yet to be confirmed by other U.N. officials.

Emerging Conflicts: Bangladesh

Over 100 people have been killed since January in political violence in Bangladesh. The violence centers around the conflict between Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and opposition leader Khaleda Zia. Hasina is the head of the ruling Awami League, while Zia is the head of the Bangladesh National Party and the wife of former military dictator Ziaur Rahman. The Bangladesh National Party is also allied with fellow opposition party Jamaat-e-Islami.

Over 300 people were killed in 2013 in conflicts between supporters of the two parties. In January 2014, the opposition boycotted the election and a number of clashes took place between the two parties. Then, on January 5, the anniversary of the 2014 elections, the opposition called for protests against the ruling party. Zia called for her supporters to block roads and railways, but a number of other protests took place as well. The government responded with a harsh crackdown, arresting over 7,000 opposition members. At least 35 opposition activists have also been assassinated. Violence was particularly heavy around January 20. Tactics on boths sides have been brutal, including burning opponents alive with petrol and bombing busses.

Violence continues, and Zia maintains that Hasina should step down and new elections should be held. The economy has suffered enormously from the instability. The garment industry, key to Bangladesh’s economy, has seen exports fall by a third.

In my role as Emerging Conflicts Coordinator, my focus is to find countries at risk of mass atrocities. All too often, this risk becomes a reality. While Nigeria’s position is still far from ideal, recent events have been a welcome point of optimism. Nigeria is now much closer to stopping a mass atrocity than it was just a few months ago. To explain how Nigeria got to this moment, I will rewind the clock to the beginning of 2015.

Boko Haram terrorizes northern Nigeria

The radical Islamist group Boko Haram has caused chaos in northern Nigeria for years. It enforces a strict interpretation of Islamic law on the areas it controls and has little hesitation to use brutal force on anyone considered an opponent to their goals. The Nigerian government, on the other hand, is based in the primarily Christian south, while the north is largely Muslim, poor, and has largely been neglected by the government. In its early years, Boko Haram gained some traction by feeding on common grievances in the north. However, despite common discontent with the Nigerian government, Boko Haram’s extensive violence against civilians has also ruined almost all possible political support it could have acquired there. Further, Boko Haram sees itself not as a resistance movement representing northern Nigeria but as part of a struggle for global jihad.

Over the course of 2014, Boko Haram gained unprecedented strength. April marked the infamous kidnapping of 276 girls from a school in Chibok, the subject of the “Bring Back Our Girls” campaign. In the wake of the kidnapping, many said the Nigerian government took far too long to respond to the kidnapping, as it has to most Boko Haram attacks. The government further angered Nigerians when it announced it had successfully negotiated the release of the girls, only to backtrack when it became clear no such deal had been made. Ultimately, while some girls managed to escape, 219 were never returned. Boko Haram made further progress as it captured a number of towns in Borno state, bombed locations across Nigeria, and even began launching frequent attacks into Cameroon. By the end of 2014, Boko Haram had killed over 6,000 civilians. Nigeria’s army was poorly organized, underpaid, and under-equipped, and suffered frequent defeats to Boko Haram forces. It has also committed extensive human rights abuses against Nigerian civilians.

The situation at the start of 2015 already looked bad, but on January 3, things took a turn for the worse when Boko Haram seized a military base and attacked the nearby town of Baga. Death tolls were initially placed upwards of 2,000 people. The Nigerian government claimed only 150 people were killed, while it was likely somewhere between 500 and 1,000 people. Ongoing conflict makes it extremely difficult to get accurate information out of northeastern Nigeria, although there was undoubtedly extensive destruction to Baga.

Election Delayed

Nigeria’s presidential election was originally scheduled for February 14. The election placed the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan, against former military dictator Muhammadu Buhari, who lost the previous election. Jonathan, a southern Christian, took massive hits to his popularity as a result of corruption scandals, the falling price of oil, and his failure to deal with Boko Haram. Many even speculated that he saw the success of Boko Haram as an electoral opportunity, as Boko Haram’s advance made it more difficult to vote in overwhelmingly Buhari-supporting parts of the North.  Buhari’s chances suffered from his past as a military dictator–although he now claims to be a reformed democrat–and the fact that Nigeria had never had a challenger defeat an incumbent president in a democratic election. Buhari did, however, have stronger credentials to fight Boko Haram and benefited from Jonathan’s large unpopularity.

On February 8, the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) announced that the election would be delayed until March 28th, citing disruption caused by Boko Haram and difficulties in registering voters. However, it was not clear that the situation with Boko Haram would improve in six weeks, and some speculated that the move was designed to give Jonathan time to gain popularity.

Boko Haram Beat Back

At the beginning of February, Nigeria’s neighbors Chad, Cameroon, and Niger began sending in troops to combat Boko Haram. They were motivated in large part by a fear of Boko Haram’s insurgency spreading and a lack of confidence in Nigeria’s ability to defeat them. While the details of the operation are not entirely clear, Nigeria also began hiring mercenaries to combat Boko Haram. The mercenaries may have even taken a leading role in combat operations, although the Nigerian government states that they were only acting as advisors. These new operations made major progress against Boko Haram, recapturing 17 of 20 local government areas that had been controlled by the militant group.

Elections Take Place

On March 28, elections finally began. Polls placed the candidates neck-and-neck going into the election. The head of INEC, Professor Attahiru Jega, had led extensive preparations to ensure a fair election. For the most part, voting went smoothly, and even internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Borno state were able to vote. However, in certain locations voting was pushed back to March 29, and there were some claims of attempts to falsify vote counts. Boko Haram, which had made clear its staunch opposition to elections, killed 41 people in an attack aimed at disrupting the election.

Votes were counted over the course of a few days, and on March 31 Buhari claimed victory. There were many fears of post-election conflict similar to that following the 2011 elections, when approximately 800 people were killed. However, Jonathan quickly conceded the election to Buhari and urged his supporters not to respond with violence. Buhari ultimately won with 15.4 million votes to Jonathan’s 13.3 million. Buhari gained support well beyond the north, with many former Jonathan strongholds swinging to Buhari or suffering from low voter turnout.

Cautious Optimism

Compared to what could have happened, and what many expected, recent events have been very successful for Nigeria. After years of military defeats to Boko Haram, Nigeria achieved huge victories over the course of just six weeks. The strength of Nigeria’s democracy far exceeded expectations, leading to a calm, organized election and a peaceful turnover of power.

Still, many potential potential pitfalls remain. Buhari’s presidency is far from a sure success, and it remains to be seen whether democratic norms will be respected. Additionally, though Boko Haram was defeated in several locations, there are few indications that Nigeria’s military has improved, and it is undetermined whether or not human rights abuses were committed by Nigeria’s allies in their efforts to defeat Boko Haram. Even after recent defeats, Boko Haram’s violence against civilians remains one of the world’s gravest mass atrocities. However, recent events provide long-awaited good news for Nigeria. If they can serve as a stepping stone for further progress, the horrors Nigerians have suffered may finally be nearing their end.

Timmy Hirschel-Burns is a sophomore at Swarthmore College and STAND’s Emerging Conflicts Coordinator.  Follow him on Twitter at @TimH_B

The Burmese government has signed a draft ceasefire agreement with the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT). The NCCT is a group representing 16 different armed groups in Burma and has been in talks with the Burmese government for months. Fighting between the Burmese Army and Kachin Independence Army (KIA) regularly interrupted the talks. The draft agreement was later called “a historic and significant achievement” by the United Nations. A nationwide ceasefire has been one of President Thein Sein’s most important and difficult goal since being elected in 2011.

On Thursday, Beijing announced that Burma had apologized and accepted responsibility for bombing the Chinese province of Yunnan last month. Five people were reportedly killed as fighting between the Burmese Army and a group called the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army moved across the border to China.

Central African Republic (CAR)

The border between the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of the Congo has been a hotbed of activity in recent months. Since the arrest of Dominic Ongwen, a top commander in the Lord’s Resistance Army, the LRA has intensified its attacks on villages across the border. On March 21, the LRA kidnapped 15 Congolese refugees and 1 Congolese national and held them for several days before releasing 13 of them. The LRA, a militant group best known for being the subject of “Kony 2012” has been the subject of international attention for its widespread atrocities and use of child soldiers. The kidnappings have inflamed relations between CAR and the DRC.

In another incident, residents in eastern Cameroon reportedly killed a number of suspected fighters from CAR who had attempted a large-scale kidnapping. This followed an attack earlier in the month, when fighters from CAR had kidnapped 16 people near the border. Some suspect that the attack was launched by a rebel group known as the Democratic Front of the Central African People (FDPC), which was at one point a part of the Seleka militia that overthrew the national government in March 2013. The leader of the FDPC was arrested in Cameroon in 2013, and the FDPC retaliated by abducting 26 people. While Cameroon eventually released their leader, tensions were never fully resolved.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

On March 26, the UN Security Council (UNSC) renewed MONUSCO’s mandate. UNSC Resolution 2211 (2015) authorizes MONUSCO to remain in eastern Congo through March of 2016. The new resolution cuts the mission’s troop strength by 2,000 peacekeepers, while retaining an existing 21,000 troop maximum that allows the UN to send additional troops in response to security concerns. Tension remains between the Kabila administration and MONUSCO, and Kabila continues to call for an immediate troop drawdown of 6,000 peacekeepers and to request an explicit timetable for the UN’s departure from the DRC. Speaking for the administration, DRC information minister Lambert Mende said, “no one should come here within the bureaucracy of the UN to transform our country into a colony.” Civil society endorsement of the mandate renewal remains far more positive, however, suggesting that the administration’s views may not represent those of the nation.

National elections in 2016 may prove a crucial test case for the efficacy of Western electoral aid in promoting democracy abroad. On Tuesday, March 31, President Barack Obama called Congolese President Joseph Kabila to express concern over the head of state’s refusal to explicitly refute suspicions that he may seek an illegal third term in 2016. With the departure of U.S. Special Envoy to the Great Lakes Region Russ Feingold in late February, Western influence in the DRC appears at a crossroads. In response to the detention of a U.S. diplomat earlier this month, the Kabila administration responded that the Congo was not a “sub-prefecture of the United States.” The diplomat has since been released. Meanwhile, activists of the pro-democracy Filimbi movement from Congo, Senegal, and Burkina Faso remain in government custody.

MONUSCO Mission Chief Martin Kobler maintains that the Congolese army’s (FARDC) counter-FDLR operations stand to achieve only limited success in the absence of UN support. Civil society representatives from North Kivu met with Kobler in late March to convey concerns regarding the negative impact that the FARDC offensive continues to impose on Congolese civilians, and to ask the mission to work with Congolese authorities to mitigate these risks. While the FARDC claims success in neutralizing nearly 200 FDLR rebels and driving the force out of twelve towns in the Kivus, residents in North and South Kivu note that the militia retains effective governance over a non-negligible number of towns and villages in the region.

Syria

During an official visit to Damascus, Iraqi Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to discuss increased coordination between the two countries in opposition to Islamic State forces. The current Iraqi government is among the few Arab countries that have continued to voice support for Assad, in spite of the suspension of Syria’s membership from the Arab League in 2011. Although the United States and Iraq coordinate militarily in opposition to the Islamic State, the United States refuses to ally itself with the Syrian regime in this capacity, on account of Assad’s ongoing actions in the Syrian Civil War.

This week, a United States warplane airdropped approximately 60,000 anti-ISIS propaganda leaflets over Raqqa, the de facto capital of ISIS. The comic-like flyers graphically depict potential recruits lining up in an ISIS recruitment office, only to be placed into a meat grinder. According to Pentagon Spokesman Colonel Steve Warren, the leaflets are intended to discourage people from joining ISIS because, “It’s not beneficial to your health.”

With the Syrian conflict entering its fifth year, the surge in refugees in neighboring countries has been matched by a massive jump in the number of Syrians seeking asylum. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 150,000 Syrians applied for asylum last year, marking a 166 percent increase in Syrian applications since 2013. Syrians alone comprise approximately one-fifth of all asylum seekers.

Chief of the prominent Nusra Front opposition group, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, is calling for greater unity among different Muslim factions in the Syrian city of Idlib, as well as the establishment of a religious court to preside over local issues and restore legal order to the city. In November, the Nusra Front gained control of Idlib by ousting several Western-backed Syrian opposition groups. Al-Jolani has categorically rejected Western support in the fight against ISIS and the Assad regime.

Emerging Conflicts: Yemen

Yemen is in disarray and civilians continue to suffer heavy costs. The Houthis, a primarily northern Shi’ite rebellion, took over the capital, Sana’a, in January. President Abdu Rabu Mansur Hadi fled with his government to the southern city of Aden, one of the government’s last remaining areas of control. However, the Houthis are now fighting to take over Aden as well. President Hadi has fled to Saudi Arabia and heavy fighting continues throughout the city.

The Houthis and Iran have been developing a loose alliance. The Houthi rebellion has also been bolstered by support from the former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was forced from office after a series of protests in 2012. Saleh, formerly an opponent of the Houthis, has joined their attempt to remove President Hadi from power, although it is unclear whether this alliance will last. Saudi Arabia remains a staunch ally of the Hadi government, and fears increased Shia and Iranian power in the region. On March 25, Saudi Arabia began leading airstrikes against the Houthis, and may even launch a ground invasion in the future. The United States, also a supporter of the Hadi government, joined the coalition along with Egypt, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Bahrain, Jordan, and Sudan. However, the conflict between the Houthis and the Hadi government is not the only conflict in Yemen. A southern separatist movement and a strong al-Qaeda branch, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) both remain active in Yemen.

The conflict is causing massive human costs for Yemeni civilians. The economy is already one of the poorest in the region and economic activity has been heavily disrupted by the fighting. On March 21, a group claiming to be a Yemeni branch of the Islamic State sent suicide bombers into mosques in Sana’a, killing 142 people. UN Humanitarian Chief Valerie Amos estimates that 519 people have been killed in the last two weeks. Heavy fighting in the densely populated cities of Sana’a and Aden has been especially dangerous.

Saudi airstrikes are also incurring massive civilian casualties. On March 30, 29 people were killed when an airstrike hit a camp for internally displaced persons. On March 31, 6 civilians, including four children, were burned to death when an airstrike hit a fuel depot. The next day, 27 people were killed after a strike hit a dairy factory. Humanitarian aid agencies have also struggled to get support into the country due to a Saudi-led blockade. Heightened security risks have put further pressure on the distribution of humanitarian aid, as a Red Crescent worker was recently shot and killed.

The International Crisis Group has called for an immediate ceasefire and a diplomatic solution to the conflict. The Houthis recently expressed their openness to talks, provided that the Saudi-led coalition halts its bombing campaign and that negotiations are conducted by “non-aggressive” parties.

Last week, a United Nations official claimed that Burma is showing signs that it is reversing its much-praised democratic reforms at an accelerating rate. In a report submitted to the United Nations Human Rights council last month, Yanghee Lee, the special rapporteur on Myanmar, cited “a growing atmosphere of fear, distrust and hostility,” and urged the government to “reverse the current slide towards extreme nationalism, religious hatred and conflict.”

In addition, three people (two from Burma and one from New Zealand) have been sentenced to two years in prison for posting an image on Facebook of the Buddha wearing headphones to promote an event. Court officials claimed the image violated the country’s religion act, which prohibits insulting, damaging, or destroying religion.

Looking ahead, Burma is set to hold additional peace talks next week between the Burmese government and the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team, or NCCT. However, many are skeptical about the upcoming talks as sporadic fighting between the Burmese Army and Kachin Independence Army and a variety of smaller ethnic rebel militias has occurred over the past few weeks.

DRC

On 15 March, the Congolese government arrested nearly 30 activists in the capital Kinshasa. Two days later, on 17 March, authorities arrested at least ten peaceful protesters in Goma, North Kivu, as the demonstrators called for the release of the Kinshasa 30. The arrests on 15 and 17 March also included a U.S. diplomat, Belgian journalists, and youth leaders from Senegal and Burkina Faso. The 15 March demonstrations followed a press conference by the pro-democracy youth movement Filimbi. The U.S. embassy provided support for the conference, intended to promote civic engagement among youth. Congolese information Minister Lambert Mende claims that the activists from Senegal and Burkina Faso were arrested for “promoting violence.” On 19 March, authorities released seven musicians arrested during the pro-democracy demonstration, and Mende claims that others will be released “very soon.”

In early March, a coalition of opposition activists visited Washington, D.C. to voice concerns regarding their perceptions of Congolese President Joseph Kabila’s refusal to cede power in 2016. The visiting delegation also explained that the Congolese electoral commission’s (CENI’s) 1.5 billion USD budget stands to impose unnecessary delays on the electoral process. Tensions between opposition parties and Kabila’s ruling coalition remain high: on 5 March, the leaders of seven parties sent a letter to the President stating that January’s #Telema protests signaled a break between the ruling majority and the will of the Congolese people.

Despite a withdrawal of United Nations support, the Congolese military (FARDC) continues to gain ground against FDLR rebels in eastern Congo. In late January, the FARDC launched an offensive against the rebels, rumored to number around 1,400 in DRC’s eastern provinces. The UN withdrew support from the operation in response to the government’s appointment of two generals accused of human rights violations as commanders of the offensive. On 9 March, FARDC captured a key rebel base in Virunga national park, killing 62 FDLR militants and injuring over 100. The mandate for the UN peacekeeping force in eastern Congo, MONUSCO, expires at the end of this month.

Syria

Both Syrian rebel groups and the Assad regime have accused each other of employing chemical weapons in attacks. The United Nations Security Council has accepted a United States draft resolution calling for stronger reinforcement against the use of chemical weapons in Syria, referring to a series of chlorine gas attacks carried out from April to August of 2013. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons has yet to identify the party responsible for these chlorine attacks, President Assad denies the regime’s use of chemical weapons. However, in a recent statement, U.S. Permanent Ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power, strongly suggested that the Assad regime is behind the chemical attacks.

The commander of Syria’s Nusra Front rebel group, Abu Hammam al-Shami, was killed in an air strike, raising questions about the future of the group’s leadership. While the Syrian military claims responsibility for the attack, early reports pointed to a US-led coalition as responsible for the strike.

In northeast Syria, the U.S.-backed Kurdish YPG militia and Islamic State engaged in combat after ISIS fighters attacked the Kurds using tanks and other artillery. In response, the U.S. led coalition successfully carried out air strikes at night against ISIS bases near the Turkish border. The number of casualties on either side of the fighting has yet to be confirmed.

As the conflict in Syria marked its fourth year since the start of the civil war, the United States Department of State announced it would contribute $70 million to supporting and training opposition forces to the Syrian regime, totaling its contributions at about $400 million since the start of the revolution.

Emerging Conflicts: Burundi

Controversy over this June’s presidential elections has raised fears of violence in Burundi.  The opposition believes that since the Constitution only allows presidents to serve two terms, and as President Pierre Nkurunziza has served two terms, he cannot run again. While Nkurunziza has not officially declared he will run again, he says that the two terms specified in the Constitution only count terms when the President was elected. As he was appointed by Parliament for his first term, he believes that he is eligible to run again.

The opposition party, the Forces for National Liberation (FNL), has expressed their clear opposition to a third term Nkurunziza. The Roman Catholic Church, the religion practiced by two-thirds of people in Burundi, has also stated that the Constitution forbids Nkurunziza to run again. Tanzania, a key peace mediator in Burundi, has warned of violence if Nkurunziza attempts to gain a third term. During a visit to the country, US Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power called Nkurunziza’s actions “extremely divisive” and “very destabilizing.” However, many analysts believe that the opposition could win the election even if Nkurunziza runs, and the FNL has confirmed that they will not boycott the elections as they did in 2010. There have also been splits in the ruling CNDD-FDD party. Nkurunziza’s intelligence chief and two deputies wrote to him asking him not to run again, and he responded by firing them. There is no clear successor to Nkurunziza within the CNDD-FDD.

Small cases of violence have already begun. The wife of FNL leader Augustin Rwasa was shot and wounded on 16 March. Rwasa claimed that it was an assassination attempt organized by Nkurunziza. Some fear that Nkurunziza has been arming and training the youth wing of his party, the Imbonerakure, in the neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Nine soldiers from the Burmese Army and one from the Ta’and National Liberation Army or the TNLA] have died during clashes in Burma’s northern Shan State. The source of this clash is uncertain. The TNLA and Kachin Independence Army (KIA) are the only two ethnic militias yet to sign a ceasefire agreement with the Burmese government. Talks were scheduled for February 12, but have since been postponed until later this month.

In their annual report on human rights, Human Rights Watch said that, “After two years of steady if uneven progress, Burma’s human rights situation was a car crash in 2014.” The report cited the country’s ongoing persecution of Muslim Rohingya, backtracking on media freedoms, continuing imprisonment of political prisoners, and maintenance of military personnel in the Parliament. Brad Adam, the Asia director at Human Rights Watch, said, “The army is still calling the shots on major issues, while the government seems confident it has satisfied other countries to keep the aid and investment dollars flowing.”

In addition, a United Nations human rights envoy to Burma was criticized by the Burmese government in response to their recent visit. Burma claimed the visit infringed upon Burma’s sovereignty and further contributed to domestic tensions. Yanghee Lee, the Special Rapporteur on human rights in Burma, claimed she and her team acted in a “constructive manner” and well within their mandate and Burma’s obligations to various human rights treaties.

Burma has officially opened a deep-sea port for a Chinese oil pipeline off the country’s west coast, according the AP. The project is a joint enterprise between two state-run companies, one Burmese and the other Chinese.

Central African Republic (CAR)

An unconditional cease-fire was reached between the Séléka and the Anti-balaka factions on Thursday, 5 February in the Kenyan capital of Nairobi. Former Speaker of the Kenyan National Assembly, Kenneth Marende, served as a mediator between representatives of the two factions. Reportedly, the parties agreed to “a cessation of hostilities, and a DDRR (Disarmament, Demobilization, Rehabilitation, and Reintegration) agreement.” The interim government of President Catherine Samba-Panza was not a party to the dialogue.

While this is a positive step towards peace and reconciliation, there is little to guarantee the success of this most recent cease-fire. Previous cease-fires have been ignored or reneged upon, either by the signatory parties or by the CAR government, which has struggled to assert authority over the peacemaking process. Less than one week ago, the CAR government challenged the legitimacy of a separate peace deal reached by Séléka and Anti-balaka leaders because it occurred outside of the official government-led peace dialogue.

In other news, the scale of weapons proliferation in CAR was highlighted this week by reports of Chinese-made hand grenades selling for less than the cost of a soft drink in Bangui. Locals can purchase grenades on the black market for less than a dollar, a worrying fact due to the potential risk of upsetting the uneasy cease-fire. The ease of access that any civilian with grievances against the Séléka or the Anti-balaka has to weapons in CAR may undermine the success of this and future cease-fire agreements.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

The Congolese parliament convened in January to discuss a proposed electoral law, which would link upcoming 2016 presidential elections to a national census. A census provision, included in Article 8 of the law, would likely delay elections by up to three years and prolong current President Joseph Kabila’s tenure. In response to the proposal, a week of civil society protests and the corresponding law enforcement crackdown left 20 to 40 demonstrators dead. In the end, parliament rejected Article 8, exposing division in the political coalition of President Joseph Kabila. Opposition activists view the rejection of Article 8 as a partial victory. They are now calling for the Congolese electoral commission (CENI) to release an explicit timetable for the upcoming elections. In a press statement on 5 February, Congolese Information Minister Lambert Mende announced that Kabila intends to step down after his term ends in 2016.

On 29 January, President Kabila announced the beginning of Congolese military (FARDC) operations against the FDLR, a rebel militia in eastern Congo with an estimated 1,400-2,000 remaining combatants. Kabila’s statement came as a surprise to UN officials, who threatened to withdraw support from the offensive after the DRC government appointed two generals accused of mass rape and summary executions as commanders of the operation. DRC information minister Lambert Mende stated on 5 February that the FARDC plans to move forward with military operations while retaining the accused, Generals Bruno Mandevu and Sikabwe Fall, as commanders. The FDLR expressed a commitment to disarmament once more on 30 January, while the U.S. Department of State expressed support for the offensive, provided that operations are “conducted in a way that protects and minimizes the impact on civilians, in accordance with international law, including international humanitarian law, and in line with the UN’s human rights due diligence policy.”

Criticism continues to amass in opposition to Dodd-Frank Section 1502, a provision in a U.S. law intended to regulate trade in conflict minerals in the DRC. Critics assert that the law poses harmful consequences for the nearly ten million Congolese civilians who depend on mining to earn a living. Rather than freeing these miners from forced labor and human rights abuses, skeptics maintain that, in the absence of livelihood support programs, the law pushes newly unemployed miners deeper into poverty. Proponents of conflict minerals policy contest that in the months following Dodd-Frank’s enactment, two-thirds of surveyed mines in eastern Congo became certifiably conflict free. They also note a reduction in violence against civilians in many mining communities.

Syria

A British monitor, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), has released a report claiming that so far this year ISIS has killed 50 civilians accused of religious dissent, apostasy, or spying on behalf of enemy fighters. In November, SOHR released a report claiming that ISIS had killed 1,432 captives, civilians, and combatants since the Islamic State declared a caliphate in June 2014.

The Islamic State released a video depicting a man, identified as Jordanian military pilot Moath al-Kasasbeh, being burned alive. ISIS captured al-Kasasbeh in December after he ejected himself from his F-16 fighter jet. The video comes three days after the news of the second decapitation of a Japanese hostage, Kenji Goto, at the hands of ISIS. King Abdullah of Jordan responded to the news of al-Kasasbeh’s murder by cutting short his trip to Washington to return home. In an online video broadcast, King Abdullah voiced his solidarity with the pilot’s family, claiming that the event would “only make us stronger.” A Jordanian army spokesperson said that the nation’s reaction to the murder would “be proportional to this catastrophe that has struck all Jordanians.” Jordan’s immediate response has included the execution of Iraqi prisoner and failed suicide bomber, Sajida al-Rishawi, whose release was demanded by ISIS in exchange for the life of Goto. As King Abdullah met with the pilot’s family, the Jordanian military carried out air strikes against an ISIS stronghold in the Syrian city of Raqqa. Commenting on the air strikes, a Jordanian army statement said it was “just the beginning.”

The Islamic State has retreated from the northern region of Kobani, admitting that repeated US airstrikes were the primary impetus. Kurdish forces, assisted by the US military, celebrated the victory as an important step toward expelling ISIS entirely from the region. In September 2014, ISIS captured over 300 towns in the region, forcing the exodus of 200,000 Kurdish residents. Although a few villages outside Kobani remain under ISIS control, Kurdish officials said that Kurdish YPG fighters have launched an offensive to reclaim the territories.

Emerging Conflicts: Ukraine

Ukraine is at a crossroads after heavy fighting in recent weeks.  Despite the signing of the Minsk agreement, which called for an immediate ceasefire to the fighting, in September, conflict has continued in the Donbass region. Little progress has been made by pro-Russian rebels or Ukrainian forces. Although Russia maintains that it is not sending weapons or troops into Ukraine, the Ukrainian government has repeatedly insisted that this is not the case.

Fighting has escalated in the last few weeks with shelling of civilian areas common. In the last three weeks of January at least 224 civilians were killed, according to the UN High Commissioner on Human Rights. The violence has been most severe in the Donetsk region, much of which has been proclaimed part of the Donetsk People’s Republic. The heaviest fighting in this area has taken place in Debaltseve, which is still controlled by Ukrainian troops but is nearly surrounded by rebel forces. Much of the town has been forced to evacuate. While the Ukrainian army has held its ground so far, it lacks resources and strong leadership and looks likely to lose the town. Additionally, Alexander Zakharchenko, the leader of the rebels, has called to increase his army to 100,000 troops. The city of Donetsk has also seen shelling in recent days.

Foreign nations are weighing decisions that look likely to change the course of the conflict. NATO has announced that it will be creating a 5,000 soldier rapid response force to support Ukraine. While the US has avoided arming Ukrainian forces throughout the conflict, it is considering sending arms. However, the news that President François Hollande of France and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany will be meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin have raised some hope of an upcoming peace plan.

Ukraine has a number of worries besides the most recent fighting. The Ukrainian economy is in collapse and the hryvnia was the worst performing currency in the world last year. The IMF is currently negotiating a bailout with the Ukrainian government. Over 5,000 people have been killed in the conflict since it began in early 2014.

According to recent reports, as many as 2,000 civilians from both Burma and China are trapped in Burma’s northeast due to ongoing fighting. The fighting erupted primarily around jade mines between the Burmese army and the Kachin Independence Army in Kachin State. Further straining the relationship between Burma and China is the arrest of more than 100 Chinese citizens, also in Kachin State. Burmese officials believe that those arrested were planning to engage in illegal jade mining or logging. Chinese officials questioned the validity of the charges and are currently pursuing diplomatic channels to resolve the growing tensions between the two countries.

Burma’s Parliament is considering a 20% budget increase to boost educational, defence, and health initiatives for the next fiscal year’s budget, which would begin on April 1, 2015. How to allocate funding between military initiatives and social services is under debate. Burma is the poorest country in Southeast Asia, but according to Burma’s constitution, the military is guaranteed 25% of the seats in Parliament. Burma’s Parliament also heard debates on so-called “religious protection” bills that would put restrictions on interfaith marriage and religious conversions in an effort to strengthen the relative majority position of Buddhism in the predominantly Buddhist country. Many critics of the bill believe it will specifically target the Rohingya, a predominantly Muslim group in Burma’s west that are denied citizenship, used as force labor, made to live in camps, and denied other basic rights by the Burmese government, which is justified by a 1982 citizenship law.

Central African Republic

Séléka fighters attempted to kidnap two senior CAR government officials this week, highlighting the continued instability and the growing boldness of the Séléka rebel coalition. The CAR Minister for Youth and Sport, Armel Ningatoloum Sayo, was kidnapped on January 25th by a group of armed gunmen; his present fate remains unclear. In a separate incident, Séléka fighters also attempted to kidnap the CAR Minister of Education, Eloi Anguimate, as he was traveling through a northern market town. Anguimate managed to escape his captors; however, his accompanying assistants and several local officials were taken captive.

The United States issued a statement condemning the kidnappings and recent attacks against UN officials and humanitarian aid workers. The statement reaffirmed U.S. support for free and democratic elections, while condemning those “who would foment violence and disrupt the transition process.” Earlier in the week, two French aid workers working for a Catholic medical organization were also kidnapped—ironically by Christian anti-balaka fighters.

Leaders from the United Nations joined the U.S. in condemning the violent militia leaders, calling for the establishment of an international tribunal to prosecute war crimes and crimes against humanity. The proposal stems from the findings of the International Commission of Inquiry on the Central African Republic, which issued a report in December of last year warning of ethnic cleansing and the growing risk of genocide.

In brighter news, the vice president of CAR’s Catholic bishop conference announced that Pope Francis intends to visit the war-torn country later in the year, in an effort to “bridge the gaps between [the Muslim and Christian populations] and direct them towards dialogue and reconciliation.”

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

On 19 January, protests erupted In Kinshasa and in other urban areas across the DRC-notably Goma and Bukavu in the east. Activists rallied against a proposed law that would tie 2016 presidential elections to a census, causing delays in the electoral process of up to several years and illegally extending current President Kabila’s tenure. In response to protests, Congolese police opened fire on demonstrators. Estimates put the total fatality count at 20-40 activists. The government also shut down mobile phone and internet-based communication for several days in an effort to curb the protests. Key Congolese opposition leader Étienne Tshisekedi released a statement on the second day of the demonstrations, expressing solidarity and condolences for victims of police brutality. On 23 January, the Congolese Senate heeded the will of the public and decided to reject the census measure. For a visual representation of the demonstrations, amateur video from Congolese videographers may be accessed here (warning: includes several graphic images).

In August, the DRC and its regional partners set a repatriation deadline for the FDLR militia, requiring forces to surrender or face military action by 2 January 2015. Martin Kobler, civilian chief of the United Nations peacekeeping force in the DRC (MONUSCO) estimates that 1,400 to 2,000 FDLR militants remain active in eastern Congo — a reduction of about 90% from the group’s original strength in 1994. While Kobler states that UN forces are trained and pre-deployed to mount an offensive against the group, U.N. peacekeeping chief Herve Lasdous warns that any action must proceed cautiously in an effort to limit civilian casualties, given the militia’s immersion within Congolese communities. Some analysts believe that military action on the part of MONUSCO and the Congolese army (FARDC) is unlikely to yield success against the FDLR, chiefly because the militia is likely to simply flee under military pressure.

Fifteen years ago, the United Nations (UN) passed UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1325, calling on women to actively participate in international peacebuilding processes. In eastern Congo, while awareness of Resolution 1325 continues to grow, women still experience significant barriers to participation in the peace process. Women in prominent political and civic roles often face accusations of promiscuity from their male peers, to the effect that many remain pressured into silence. Women activists lament that where peacekeeping organizations may have gender quotas to ensure female representation, the females in these organizations are often forced to accept marginal roles.

Sudan

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), an international non-governmental organization dedicated to providing medical aid to those in need, stated late last week that the Sudanese government is systematically blocking aid from reaching civilians. Because of the government’s continued interference in aid delivery, the organization has stopped its mission in Sudan. After repeated government interference and the bombing of an MSF hospital, the organization has decided it is too risky to stay in a country where the government does not want them. Although some factions of MSF will stay behind in less hostile areas of Sudan, the majority of MSF work in the country will stop.

Additionally, there have been reports that Sudanese rebels in Sudan’s South Kordofan province have detained six Bulgarians working for the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP). The flight, which was scheduled to fly from South Sudan to Khartoum, had to land in an area determined an active war zone. The rebels suspected the helicopter of being a government army helicopter, and those aboard were removed from the aircraft for questioning. The rebels have stated that they will release the Bulgarian workers as soon as they confirm that they are with the WFP and “not for the benefit of the Sudanese government”.

Finally, reports have emerged that Sudan’s army has faced severe losses at the hands of the rebel forces. The government defeat reportedly came after local militias loyal to the Sudanese government known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) mutinied in a garrison in South Kordofan. The leader of the rebel faction, Yasser Arman stated that, “Bashir knows he cannot crush what he calls rebellion.” He also claimed that this was the largest attack on government forces since the outbreak of the war in 2011.

South Sudan

The African Union (AU) issued a statement on 31 January in Addis Abba, Ethiopia threatening potential sanctions on South Sudan. The proposed sanctions will be imposed on all warring parties in South Sudan who continue to violate the cessation of hostilities agreement. The United Nations Security Council and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the East African regional bloc, have also threatened to impose sanctions.

The African Union is currently under heat from many human rights organizations for deferring the publishing of its official report on the atrocities committed in South Sudan. According to Amnesty International, the African Union’s Commission of Inquiry has filed a report on the atrocities committed in South Sudan, but refuses to publish it. The commission’s job in South Sudan was to investigate human rights abuses committed by both sides of the conflict and offer recommendations for accountability. Amnesty accused the AU of failing “the thousands of South Sudanese victims who are waiting for truth and justice”.

Finally, President Salva Kiir and rebel rival, Riek Machar have been in peace talks in Addis Ababa since Wednesday. There were rumors that President Kiir was not healthy enough to attend talks, but these rumors were deemed untrue by doctors and the talks have resumed. WHile President Kiir and former Vice President Machar have agreed to form a unity government, they remain deadlocked over the powers of the future prime minister.

Syria

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), as of December 2014, 200,000 Syrians have been killed in the civil war that grew out of the Arab Spring in 2011. Director Rami Abdul Rahman of the British-based monitor claims that these numbers underestimate a much greater death toll, though this has yet to be confirmed by organizations such as the United Nations, which last updated its figure in August 2014.

After insufficient funding forced the suspension of a food assistance program to Syrian refugees, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) launched a successful 72-hour fundraising campaign that exceeded the $68 million needed to continue the program. Thanks to donors and continued cooperation between the WFP and host country governments, the United Nations resumed providing food vouchers to the 1.7 million Syrian refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, and Egypt.

New cases of foreign hostages by the Islamic State have surfaced, most notably the kidnapping of Japanese reporter Kenji Goto and military contractor Haruna Yukawa. In a video released to YouTube, their captors threatened the two Japanese citizens with murder, demanding $200 million (the same amount that Japanese President Shinzo Abe pledged in non-military aid to Middle Eastern countries combating the Islamic State) from Japan before the expiration of a 72-hour deadline. After failing to respond to the ransom, Islamic State released a photograph of Yukawa beheaded, and demanded the release of Jordanian militant, Sajida al-Rishawi, in order to spare Goto’s life.

The Saudi Arabian-backed Islamist armed opposition group, Islam Army, fired between 50 and 150 rockets on Damascus in one of the city’s largest attacks in a year, killing at least seven people. With the passing of Saudi Arabian King Abdullah and subsequent appointment of King Salman, it remains to be seen how the Kingdom will proceed in its commitment to fighting the Islamic State. Near Aleppo, the Al-Qaeda-supported Nusra Front attacked and killed four members of the western-backed Free Syrian Army group’s Hazm Movement. The Free Syrian Army’s Hazm Movement is supported by the United States and is among the few non-Islamist rebel groups that oppose Assad. Near the border between Turkey and Syria, Kurdish fighters backed by the United States have nearly reclaimed the town of Kobani from Islamic State militants who seized the territory in July of 2014. United States-backed forces have bombed Islamic State holdings in Kobani, and are aided by Syrian Kurdish YPG and Iraqi Kurdish groups in their efforts to expel Islamic State militants.

On the international front, results of a four-day consultation of Russian diplomats and experts by Syrian delegates were inconclusive, largely due to the absence of the Syrian National Coalition and other key stakeholders in the conflict. Russia continues to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and the Syrian and Russian delegations focused on the importance of fighting terrorism, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov offering to facilitate local cease-fires in Syria between the government and opposition forces.

In the United States, the Republican-led House Committee on Homeland Security, responsible for granting the admission of refugees to the US, questioned the Obama administration’s plan to resettle greater numbers of Syrian refugees. Congressional representatives sent a letter to the White House citing national security and terrorism concerns about the plan. The State Department’s expects to admit between 1000 and 2000 Syrian refugees this year, and is currently reviewing around 4000 applications for resettlement.

Emerging Conflicts: Yemen

Yemen’s state is on the verge of collapse after Houthi forces took over the capital of Sana’a on 20 January. The rebels beat back government forces and surrounded the capitol. After the rebels offered a number of demands to President Abdu Rabu Mansur Hadi, the President, his cabinet, and the Prime Minister chose to resign. The move seems to have caught the Houthis by surprise and it is not clear who is actually in charge of the country. While normally power would be transferred to the vice president, Hadi had still not named a vice president after three years in office. The next in line is the speaker of Parliament, Yahya al-Rai’i, but Yemen has not had parliamentary elections since 2003 and al-Rai’i only became speaker after his predecessor died in 2007.

The Houthis seem to have wanted large influence over the government but not to formally take it over. However, they have suggested that they will name a Presidential Council to rule the government. If the Houthis do take power, they will likely struggle to control the country.  The rebel group, which is from the north of the country, has little control over the South.  There have been reports that southern parts of the country will push for secession, but al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is also strong in that part of the country. Yemen is also heavily reliant on Saudi aid, and this would likely be withdrawn if the Houthis take power.  Another complication is that the Houthis rise to power was facilitated by an alliance with their long-term enemy, former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, but it is unclear how long that alliance will last. Saleh was forced to leave office in 2012 after major protests, but he seems to have worked with the Houthis to remove power from President Hadi. There is also the possibility that Hadi’s resignation will be rejected.

The conflict is shaped by religious affiliations and international political alliances, but these defy easy categorizations. Hadi’s government was Sunni and backed by the United States and Saudi Arabia. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is also Sunni but strongly opposed the ruling government and the Houthis. AQAP has been a major target of US drone strikes, making Yemen a key area of the United States’ counterterror strategy. The Houthis seem to have support from Iran but are acting independently. Both Iran and the Houthis are Shia, although they come from different sects, Twelver and Zaydi, respectively. While the Houthis are a Shia rebel group, they have also worked with Sunni groups in the past. They have tried to address many popular grievances with the government and have participated in nonviolent actions against the government. Still, the often aggressive methods of the Houthis have caused them to be distrusted by many Sunni groups.