Now, it is time to look at who his successor will be. In early August, opposition leader Moise Katumbi tried to fly back home to the DRC, after being in self-imposed exile since May of 2016.  However, he was blocked twice.  The first time, he was denied permission to land in his home country.  The second time, he landed in Zambia and tried to cross the land border.  Congolese officials allegedly instructed Zambian officials not to let him cross.Communications Minister Lambert Mende has said that Katumbi will be detained as soon as he crosses the border after he was convicted of illegally selling a property and sentenced to three years in prison, during his time out of the country.  Investigations were never finished, including inquiries into allegations that he hired mercenaries. Katumbi and his lawyers deny such accusations and say that they are politically motivated.

It remains unclear whether or not Katumbi did anything wrong, but he has received an outpouring of support, with people lining up at the Congo-Zambia border to welcome him.  Many are simply looking for a change from President Kabila, who has a long history of human rights abuses and crackdowns on all form of protest. However, his inability to come back to the DRC has jeopardized his ability to run for office.  Even if he could return home in the near future, he missed the deadline to register to stand for election. Opposition leaders, however, have demanded that Katumbi be allowed to return and participate in the December election.  It remains to be seen what the future will hold for Moise Katumbi.

On August 7th, opposition leader Felix Tshisekedi filed for his candidacy in the December elections.  His father was a strong opposition leader throughout his life and was slated to run for prime minister in the upcoming elections.  His father unfortunately died in February of 2017, and Felix Tshisekedi had to take over all of his obligations. He does not completely lack political experience , having been elected to Parliament in 2011, but he mainly followed his father’s requests.  His background is in marketing, which he studied in Belgium before he became a member of Parliament. While some members of his party, the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS), have questioned his credentials, many across the DRC have been comforted by the idea of a simple transition within the family.

Tshisekedi has called for unity and peaceful opposition, promoting the democratic ideals and freedoms that he and his fellow opposition members protested for under President Kabila.  If he is able to win the December election and truly execute the ideas he has presented, this would mark a turning point for the DRC. The country’s democratic system would be stronger than it has been in years, and more peaceful transitions of power could be in sight.  He has polled in the top two, but it is unclear just how free the elections will be.

On August 10th, just before the deadline to register candidates, President Kabila nominated Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary to represent his party, the Common Front for Congo, in the coming election.  Shadary is a long-time supporter of Kabila, and he was Vice President of the Interior during Kabila’s time in office.  He oversaw the crackdowns on anti-Kabila protesters in 2017, which bought him support from Kabila and condemnation from the international community (including sanctions from the European Union).

Shadary’s victory is likely, given Kabila’s unwillingness to step down and the recent blocking of opposition leaders.  While this would ensure a somewhat peaceful transition of power, it would also mean the maintenance of the status quo. Human rights abuses would likely continue, with protesters left voiceless.  President Kabila would continue to control the nation’s politics.

On September 3rd, a court upheld an election commission’s decision to block former vice president and opposition leader Jean-Pierre Bemba from standing for election.  This decision was based on his conviction of witness tampering by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in May.  However, Bemba is better known for the war crimes the ICC convicted him of in 2008. Back in the early 2000’s, Bemba was involved in a conflict in the Central African Republic (CAR), and his militia was accused of murders and rapes.  He was acquitted of these charges and is now allowed back in the DRC.

War crimes aside, the fact that Jean-Pierre Bemba is no longer allowed to run for office is an important enforcement of an international ruling and provides real consequences for actions that obstruct justice.  This could be a key turning point for the DRC, as President Kabila has been known to not follow laws. Preventing his successor from following in his footsteps could help to establish a clear rule of law and a strong government.  It is important to note, however, that many are concerned that this ruling had nothing to do with the rule of law and was a convenient political decision.

The fact that there is a concrete plan to move forward with the election of a successor to President Kabila is a huge step in and of itself, but it is not enough.  The election of an opposition leader would confirm the credibility of the elections, the viability of a peaceful transition of power in the DRC, and the sustainability of the DRC as a democratic nation.  However, given Kabila’s desire for power and a history of crackdown on critics, it is more than likely that there will be interference in the election.

As we get closer to the elections, it is critical that we pay attention.  If a fair election and transition of power cannot happen, violence is a likely response, whether in regular protest or in a coup.  The people of the DRC, and the world as a whole, could use more democracy and peace.

—

Mira Mehta is a writer and a student at Westfield High School.  In her spare time, she enjoys debating and running on the cross country team.  This is her second year as a member of the Communications Task Force at STAND.

• Cultural anthropologist Christina Fink from George Washington University;
• US Institute of Peace’s Susan Hayward; and
• Kelley Currie of the 2049 Institute.

The panelists made clear the critical moment in which Burma finds itself, as the transition to democracy has not lived up to its promises and the upcoming elections will be a vital moment in determining the trajectory Burma takes.

Burma has long-running conflicts between the government and various minority ethnic groups, and the speakers focused on how the elections would impact these conflicts. Ethnic groups are represented both through political parties and armed groups. Furthermore, Fink said ethnic political parties and armed groups broadly want the same thing, a more federalist system of government where they receive more autonomy and receive better treatment. However, Fink noted that for many ethnic groups in the upcoming election, votes will likely be split as multiple parties compete to represent a single group. Still, given that it seems no one party will be strong enough to win the Presidency on their own, ethnic parties may have enough power to play a crucial tie-breaking role in the formation of the new government.

A particularly interesting section was the discussion of the development of Buddhist nationalism and its effects on the Rohingya. The Rohingya are a majority-Muslim group who mostly live in the West of the country. They are denied citizenship by the Burmese government and subjected to extensive human rights abuses. Hayward described how their current treatment could be traced back to the colonial era. British colonialism reduced the power of Buddhism in the country, and in an attempt to maintain its influence, Buddhist leaders spread an expectation that individuals should personally focus on protecting Buddhism. That pattern continued after independence, and many Burmese are still very invested in ensuring the survival and strength of Buddhism in Burma. This has caused the appeal of a state that actively promotes Buddhism, and Buddhist nationalist organizations like Ma Ba Tha have tapped in to this sentiment. As a result, candidates for election face great pressure from voters to be “good Buddhists,” and those who defend the Muslim Rohingya are often seen as not properly fulfilling their responsibility to defend Buddhism. Rohingya, who are already in a dire situation, struggle against the influence of Buddhist nationalist ideas that see them as a threat to Burma’s national identity.

The panel made clear that Burma’s transition to democracy has not lived up to everything that it was hoped to. Currie noted that civil society groups have benefited from increased political freedoms in the last five years, but also that international donors have often failed to effectively help civil society and political repression has increased in the last year. This year’s election will be an important indicator of whether Burma is slowly heading towards a more just and free society or if the transition to democracy was a false dawn. Perhaps policies will shift in line with the desires of the voters and elected leaders will respect ethnic minorities once in office, but it is also very possible that electoral procedures will be manipulated to ensure a victory for the ruling USDP party and the military will guarantee its power remains untouched. The Center for the Prevention of Genocide’s Early Warning Project places Burma as the most likely country in the world to have an onset of state-led mass killing, underlining just how crucial it is that the direction Burma is heading is the right one.