Burma has been hit by a monsoon and massive flooding. More than 150,000 people have been affected and 27 people have been confirmed dead, although the actual figure is probably significantly higher. Humanitarian aid delivery has faced a number of hurdles, as many victims are in isolated regions and continued rains make it difficult to travel. President Thein Sein and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi have both visited badly-affected regions. The government is particularly motivated to respond quickly since the military government in 2008 faced heavy criticism for its slow response to Cyclone Nargis, in which 140,000 people died. However, as the storm headed towards Rakhine state, it is reported that Buddhists were evacuated while Rohingya were not, and Rohingya are yet to receive assistance.

Close to 7,000 prisoners were given presidential pardons and released on July 30th. The group included journalists, Chinese loggers, and members of the former military government. However, an estimated 158 political prisoners remain imprisoned.

Speaker of the Union Parliament and leader of the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) Shwe Mann has said that he is confident that his party will win. He also said that the USDP will behave fairly in the election. The government’s attempts to seek a ceasefire with ethnic rebels have not gone so well, however. The most recent round of peace negotiations in Rangoon ended this week, having made little progress. The United Nationalities Federal Council, the major coalition of ethnic leaders, has called on the government to stop offensives against ethnic armed groups and do more to come to an agreement.

Central African Republic (CAR)

Although levels of violence are significantly below their peak, violence continues in CAR. In Markounda, a northwestern town 330 miles north of Bangui, ex-Seleka rebels and militants in a group called Revolution-Justice clashed and at least 26 people were killed. Fighting in Bangui also turned deadly, this time when UN peacekeepers attempted to carry out an arrest warrant. Rebel forces opened fire, killing one peacekeeper and injuring eight.

Amnesty International has released a new report on Muslims in western CAR. The report finds that Muslims often have to hide their religion or are forced to convert to Christianity with death threatened as the alternative. The UN has also pointed to the humanitarian crisis in CAR.  The international community has only funded 31% of CAR’s declared need for humanitarian aid, and the UN has warned that Central African civilians will face massive suffering unless this figure is increased.

Preparations for this fall’s elections have begun, with many individuals declaring their candidacies. So far, 30 people have announced their intention to run for President.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Gubernatorial elections for the DRC’s new provinces have been pushed to October 6th from their originally scheduled date of August 31st. Preparations for national elections are also in progress. The National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) has been examining voter rolls, but they have warned of anomalies on the lists, including duplicate voters and already-registered voters lacking sufficient information. The Catholic Church has said that it supports the political dialogue planned to precede the election. However, it has said that this dialogue should not interfere with the election schedule and reiterated its opposition to constitutional changes to allow President Kabila a third term.  Many Congolese are Catholic and the Church’s voice is very influential in Congolese society.

6,400 citizens have fled their homes in Lubero, North Kivu, in response to FDLR violence. UNOCHA said that most have been able to find refuge in neighboring areas.

Jean-Bertrand Ewanga, secretary-general of the opposition party Union for the Congolese Nation (UNC), has been released from Kinshasa’s Makala prison after almost a year. He was arrested for insulting the President last year during a protest opposing Kabila’s proposed third term, and the UNC and many other members of the opposition denounced the charges as politically motivated.

South Sudan

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD) most recent peace proposal, which was released in late June, has not been well received by the South Sudanese government. President Salva Kiir said July 30th that he would not sign the agreement. Army Chief of Staff General Paul Malong Awan, who recently gave orders in Western Equatoria state to shoot anyone resisting the military’s commands, also expressed his displeasure with the IGAD proposal. President Kiir said it was unlikely they would soon come to an agreement, although the South Sudanese government is going to release its own peace plan for the conflict once peace talks reconvene in Addis Ababa. This plan will not allow former Vice-President Riek Machar to share the presidency with Kiir, one of the main reasons for their opposition to the IGAD plan. US Special Envoy to Sudan and South Sudan Donald Booth said patience is running out with the warring parties and urged them to quickly stop the war.

A joint report by World Vision, Save the Children, Intersos, and CARE found that 400,000 displaced children, half of all displaced South Sudanese children, are not in school. Humanitarian aid is also struggling, and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has blamed restrictions from the South Sudanese government for delays in delivery.

The South Sudanese government has said it will push to strengthen its relationship with Sudan. The countries have had many disputes since South Sudan’s secession in 2011.

Sudan

Amnesty International has released a report accusing Sudan of war crimes in South Kordofan. The report finds that Sudan launched hundreds of shells and bombs, including cluster bombs, against civilians between January and April, killing at least 35 people.

President Omar al-Bashir will lead a meeting that will include opposition parties to discuss the national dialogue. Sudan’s Vice-President said that the government will meet the demands that are required to ensure the participation of opposition parties. President Bashir also said that his government is committed to finding a negotiated solution to the conflict in South Kordofan and the Blue Nile. The African Union’s chief negotiator, former South African president Thabo Mbeki, is travelling to Khartoum this week to discuss peace negotiations and the national dialogue.  Meanwhile, Minni Minnawi, leader of a faction of the Darfuri rebel group the Sudan Liberation Movement, has called on the US to do more to protect Darfur.

President Bashir is reportedly planning on travelling to New York to speak at the UN in September. He is indicted by the ICC for war crimes and genocide, and his attempt to speak at the UN in 2013 was unsuccessful.

Syria

Soldiers trained in the US Train and Equip Program have finally taken to the battlefield. Fifty-four soldiers entered the fighting. Recent reports have said that they were quickly defeated and some were killed or captured by Jabhat al-Nusra, which the Department of Defense denies. While the forces are intended to fight ISIS, President Obama has authorized the use of airpower to support the troops if they are attacked by other rebels or the Assad regime. However, the monitoring group Airwars has found that US airstrikes against ISIS have killed at least 459 civilians over the last year. The US has only acknowledged two civilian deaths.

Syrian regime forces backed by Hezbollah have launched a counteroffensive against rebels in Hama province. The rebels, led by Jabhat al-Nusra, were pushing towards coastal Latakia province, a stronghold of the Assad regime. More than 100 fighters have been killed.

UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura has invited parties to the conflict to participate in dialogues intended to produce a peace framework for the conflict. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has said he is prepared to convene a major conference to support the framework if parties are able to come to an agreement.

Emerging Conflicts: Nigeria

After a recent resurgence in violence from Boko Haram, there have been some successes against the militant group. Most notably, the Nigerian military reported that it rescued 178 people held captive by Boko Haram, 101 of which were children.  It is unclear whether any of the captives were captured in the Chibok attack that sparked the Bring Back Our Girls campaign. The Nigerian military also reported it had killed 20 Boko Haram soldiers in Dikwa, while the Chadian military said it killed 117 Boko Haram fighters near Lake Chad. Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari recently fired a number of generals, but he has appointed a new general to head a multinational force combatting Boko Haram.

However, Boko Haram’s attacks are far from over. Just days after the captives were rescued, Boko Haram killed eight and kidnapped an estimated 100 people in Cameroon. It has continued to perpetrate many attacks, often through suicide bombings. It also conducted a raid in Adamawa state on July 24th, killing 25 people.  In total, Boko Haram killed at least 178 civilians between July 18th and July 31st.

The National League for Democracy (NLD) has confirmed it will contest the upcoming elections despite their leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, remaining banned from becoming President.  Suu Kyi said they have a plan to deal with the problem, and the NLD has said it will select an NLD member to run for President.  Majority leader of the US Senate Mitch McConnell has criticized Burma’s government for keeping the Constitutional provision barring Suu Kyi from becoming President, and has said that Burma should not receive trade benefits until after the election.

Religious freedom in Burma may take a blow if the President signs a bill on interfaith marriage into law.  Parliament passed a bill that would require Buddhist women to get approval from local authorities to marry a man of another faith.  The bill is strongly back by the Buddhist nationalist organization Ma Ba Tha.  In Rakhine State, few Rohingya have taken the new green cards on offer by the Burmese government, as they must identify themselves as Bengali in order to get the card.  Only 1,600 Rohingya have applied for green cards, which replace the 400,000 white cards that the government revoked earlier this year.

Rebels from the Democratic Karen Benevolence Army (DKBA) continues to fight the Burmese military in a battle over the Asia Highway in Karen State.  At least four DKBA soldiers and seven Burmese army soldiers have been killed in the clashes.  There was also shelling in Shan State, where fighting between the Kachin Independence Army and the Burmese Army killed one person and hundreds of civilians were forced to flee.

Central African Republic (CAR)

The Central African transition government has controversially decided to exclude refugees from the upcoming election.  More than 460,000 people who fled to neighboring countries will be unable to vote.  As refugees are disproportionately Muslim, Muslims will have less influence in the election.  Various UN agencies have expressed their concern about the decision.

French Foreign Affairs Minister Laurent Fabius visited CAR this week.  His visit was designed to show support for transitional President Catherine Samba-Panza and an eight million euro budgetary aid agreement, much of which will go to support the upcoming elections.  However, it also drew a great deal of attention to the alleged child sexual abuse committed by French peacekeepers in CAR.

MINUSCA, the UN peacekeeping force in the Central African Republic, will receive 750 new troops after the Republic of the Congo sent the soldiers to replace soldiers that had served for over a year.  However, in an unrelated situation, 20 peacekeepers will be sent home for excessive use of force in an incident that killed two people.

In Bangui, unidentified gunmen attacked Central African police, wounding two officers.  The attack came several days after unidentified gunmen attacked the state radio station.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

The DRC is stepping up the process of decoupage, which will separate the country’s 11 provinces into 26 provinces.  Nine new provinces were implemented in the last week.  The DRC’s government has announced that gubernatorial elections for the new provinces will take place between July 27th and 31st.

Six people were abducted in Orientale Province in an attack believed to be committed by the LRA.  Also, in Walikale territory in North Kivu, the APCLS kidnapped ten people.  In response to this type of attack, citizens in Walikale have organized self-defense militias, citing lack of protection from police and military.  In Ituri, the Ituri Patriotic Resistance Force attacked a camp for displaced people.  One rebel leader seems unlikely to lead further attacks.  Jamil Mukulu of the Ugandan Islamist group Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) was extradited to Uganda from Tanzania to face trial.

The European Union has pressured the Congolese government to release two civil society activists who have been held since their arrest in March.  Government spokesman Lambert Mende rejected the EU’s recommendation as meddling in the internal affairs of a sovereign country.

South Sudan

The South Sudanese government has made clear its displeasure with the UN’s recent actions.  In response to the UN’s report that found the South Sudanese army guilty of human rights abuses, South Sudan has expelled one UN official and may expel another.  President Kiir also criticized the imposition of sanctions on three South Sudanese commanders.  UN secretary-General has continued his efforts, however, and called on South Sudanese leaders to find a political solution and stop the violence.  The executive director of the South Sudan Human Right Society for Advocacy has also called on President Kiir to stop the violence.

Local violence has continued at a large scale in Lakes state.  Nine people were killed in clashes between the Panyon and Dhiei clans.  Then, 27 people were killed in a raid on Pappul cattle camp, including a number of civilians.

The rising price of water is putting more people at risk of cholera as people will have less access to clean water.  Since June, there have been 790 cases of cholera and 33 people have died in the cholera outbreak that originated in a displaced person’s camp in Juba.

Sudan

Hassan al-Turabi, leader of the Popular Congress Party (PCP), said that he was confident that Sudan’s Islamists would reunite within the next year.  It seems unlikely Sudan’s Islamists all agree, but Turabi did meet with President Omar al-Bashir this week.  The two had considered the other an enemy since Turabi split from the National Congress Party in 1999 to form the PCP, but relations between the two have thawed in the last year.

Opposition parties in the national dialogue have held talks with opposition parties that have not yet joined the dialogue in an attempt to convince them to join.  However, talks between the Sudanese government and the SPLM-N are not going well, and the Sudanese government has accused the SPLM-N of having unrealistic demands and being at fault for the failure of peace talks.

President Omar al-Bashir visited Saudi Arabia to discuss building closer ties between the countries with the Saudi King.  This marks a shift in Sudan’s alliances after Sudan distanced itself from Iran earlier this year.  President al-Bashir also completed the umrah while on the trip.

Twelve Sudanese women in Khartoum faced 40 lashes after they were arrested for wearing trousers.  The women were Christian and originally from the Nuba Mountains, and while three were not sentenced to flogging, the possibility remains for the nine other women.

Syria

ISIS and the Syrian military engaged in heavy fighting around the city of Palmyra.  Syrian forces closed in on the city and killed over 30 ISIS fighters, but ISIS then captured over 100 Syrian soldiers in an ambush.  The Assad regime did have a victory in Zabadani, where Hezbollah and Syrian army forces took the main entrance to the city, which is close to the border to Lebanon.

The US has continued launching heavy airstrikes against ISIS, with 16 in Syria this past weekend.  Two senior leaders of ISIS were killed in the attacks.

The conflict continues to have huge costs on Syrian civilians.  In Aleppo, a drought is causing a water shortage for civilians, who also struggle to access water due to restricted movement caused by fighting and attacks on water sources.  Meanwhile, in response to the shortage of funds for Syrian refugees, Nobel Peace Prize winner Malala Yousafzai has called world leaders “quite stingy.”

Emerging Conflicts: Burundi

Burundi remains on the brink as controversy over President Pierre Nkurunziza’s run for a third term continues.  Nkurunziza decided to run despite strong opposition and doubts over the constitutionality of his decision.  In light of the ongoing unrest, presidential elections have been pushed back from their originally scheduled date of July 15th to July 21st.  Parliamentary elections recently took place and were won by Nkurunziza’s CNDD-FDD party, but the elections were marred by an opposition boycott and strong doubts over their legitimacy.  Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has been called in to mediate between the CNDD-FDD and the opposition.

There also seems to have been an upsurge in violence.  Burundi’s military announced that it had killed 31 opposition rebels and captured 170 in the country’s north.  The exact allegiances and identity of the rebels remains unconfirmed.  There have also been a number of grenade attacks in the capital city, Bujumbura.  However, there may be hope in the disarmament of the CNDD-FDD’s youth wing, the Imbonerakure.  The group has long been considered a dangerous potential source of violence, but Ugandan President Museveni said that they had been disarmed.  This would be welcome news, but it does confirm that the Imbonerakure were armed and doubts remain about the extent of their disarmament.

The election has been set for November 8th.  It is Burma’s first open general election in 25 years.  The incumbent Union Solidarity and Democracy Party, led by President Thein Sein, will be contested by the National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi.  Parliament recently voted against removing a Constitutional clause that bars her from becoming President, but despite this Aung San Suu Kyi has continued campaigning.

Negotiations between the Burmese government and ethnic rebels in Thailand made some progress, with chief peace negotiator Aung Min saying it was possible a deal could be struck.  The parties will meet again in a few weeks.  The Burmese government also may have quite a few more years of Thein Sein as President, as he has said he will consider a second term.

The military has engaged in multiple clashes.  In Karen State, government troops fought members of the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army, while in Shan State unknown rebels attacked an army outpost.  In Rangoon, military MPs have argued strongly against a proposed constitutional amendment that would allow state parliaments to choose chief ministers.  Efforts to reduce military power also took a hit as five student leaders who led protests against the military influence in Parliament were arrested.  In Rakhine State, the military continues to use Rohingya in forced labor.  While a UN Human Rights Council resolution sought to bring attention to this and other human rights abuses of Rohingya, the Burmese government has rejected the proposal.

Central African Republic (CAR)

Unidentified gunmen unsuccessfully attempted to take over CAR’s main radio station.  In the middle of the night, a dozen men surrounded the station, scaled the fence, and broke into the radio station.  However, they were repelled by security forces.  It is believed they wanted to take over the radio station to make a political statement over radio, but it is unknown what political beliefs they held.

French investigators have left for the Central African Republic, where they will meet with children accusing French peacekeepers of sexual abuse.  Over a dozen French peacekeepers are being investigated for allegations of sexually abusing children in exchange for food in early 2014.  French authorities were informed of the abuse in July 2014, but the investigation is still in progress.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

The United States has appointed Tom Perriello as its new Special Envoy to the Great Lakes Region of Africa.  He succeeds Russ Feingold, who left the position in February.  Perriello does not have experience in the region, but he has worked on transitional justice projects in Sierra Leone, Afghanistan, Kosovo, and Darfur.  He was a Democratic representative in the House from 2008 to 2010.

In Ituri, the Ituri Patriotic Resistance Force (FPRI) killed a woman and a 13-year-old girl and raped three others.  This follows another attack from the militia last Tuesday.  In Goma, two people were killed and multiple others wounded in a series of attempted robberies by bandits, who have since been captured.

Government spokesperson Lambert Mende has suggested that the government of the DRC would be open to MONUSCO and FARDC working together in operations against the FDLR.  Efforts broke down earlier this year after MONUSCO objected to the inclusion of several generals with records of human rights abuses in FARDC forces.  The UN has called for a greater police presence in the DRC.  At the moment, there is only one police officer for every 700 people, and they are located disproportionately in urban areas.

South Sudan

Government forces and rebels each had multiple ups and downs this week.  The South Sudanese army reclaimed Malakal, the strategically important capital of Upper Nile state, a week after losing it to rebels.  Upper Nile state is rich in oil, but in Unity state, rebels allied with Riek Machar regained control of Tharjath oil field.  In Northern Bahr el Ghazal, rebels took over an administrative headquarters, only to leave shortly afterwards.  In Lakes state, there was communal violence unrelated to the conflict between Kiir and Machar, killing 15 people.

One thing the South Sudanese government and rebels can agree on this week is their unhappiness with the actions of the UN.  A UN report accused the SPLA of, among other human rights abuses, raping and burning girls in Unity state.  However, the South Sudanese embassy in Kenya accused the UN of bias, while Justice Minister Paulino Wanawila also rejected the allegations.  Rebel General James Koang has objected to the sanctions placed upon him by the UN Security Council, calling instead for justice and saying the sanctions will not affect him or the war.

Newly released figures show that 730,000 South Sudanese have fled to other countries since the civil war began, with Ethiopia the most frequent destination.  Over 150,000 people are sheltering in UN bases.  However, the war shows few signs of ending.  Riek Machar has said the war will last as long as Kiir is President and called on him to resign immediately.  There may be some promise in the G10, as the group of former political detainees has said that military action will not resolve the conflict and that they are trying to bridge differences between the two parties.

Sudan

US Special Envoy to Sudan Donald Booth will visit the country by the end of July.  He will discuss normalizing relations between the countries and ending sanctions on Sudan.  Sudanese Foreign Minister Ibrahim Ghandour has said he hopes the talks are based on a new approach as compared to past talks.  Ghandour also met with the African Union Special Envoy to Sudan to discuss the peace talks.

The ruling National Congress Party has said that it met with unnamed opposition parties in an attempt to convince them to participate in the national dialogue.  However, rebels in the SPLM

-N have reiterated their desire for a new peace process, saying the current one only suits the interests of the Sudanese government.

The Sudanese government will deploy a joint police and army force to East Darfur.  They said that recent tribal violence prompted the force, which will attempt to restore security to the area.

Syria

Syrian rebels led by al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra battled government forces in Aleppo, which is held by the Assad regime.  Rebels initially made advances and took important positions, but since have been fought back.  ISIS took back Ain Issa after several weeks of Kurdish control, only to lose it back several days later.  The town is 30 miles from ISIS’s capital, Raqqa.

The US-led coalition launched heavy strikes on Raqqa over the weekend, killing ten ISIS fighters.  However, there are also reports that eight civilians were killed in the strikes.  This week President Obama said that the US would step up its campaign against ISIS and its support to moderate rebels.  It was revealed later this week that the US’s “train and equip” program, at a cost of $500 million, has only trained 60 rebels.  The process has been slowed by attempts to vet rebels before permitting them to join the program, but defense officials maintain the program will be expanded to meet their targets.

The Syrian government has taken a $1 billion loan from ally Iran.  Iran has already loaned significant funds from Iran, as the Syrian government’s budget and economy has been hard hit by the conflict.  They aren’t the only ones suffering from the conflict, and new figures show that 4 million Syrians are refugees, making it the largest refugee crisis in 25 years.

Emerging Conflicts: El Salvador

El Salvador has been wracked by extensive violence as gangs fight among themselves and with police or other government forces.  The government lacks control of much of the country, with many areas dominated by gangs, particularly the Barrio 18 and MS-13 gangs.  The government had been in a truce with gangs for a year, with imprisoned gang members transferred to lower-security prisons and less violence between the parties.  However, the Salvadoran government broke the truce and launched a crackdown on gangs.  The crackdown has in many ways backfired, as there have been few victories against the gangs and the gangs have responded by stepping up violence.  The government has announced plans to further escalate the fight against the gangs, but there also might be hope through the promise of civilian self-protection strategies.

677 murders took place in June, 641 in May, and there have been over 3,000 in 2015.  This is a 55% increase in murders from the same period last year and is El Salvador’s worst violence since the civil war.  More civilians were killed in May in El Salvador than in ISIS-controlled Iraq.  Salvadoran civilians face constant risks.  They can be murdered for going into territory of a different gang than the one that controls their home neighborhood, having witnessed a crime, or just being suspected of assisting a rival gang or the police.  As many as 280,000 people have been internally displaced by the violence, and in lack of safe options, many have also attempted to escape to the US.

Burma deported 37 Rohingya to Bangladesh.  The people were found by the Burmese navy on a boat in the Bay of Bengal in May in an attempt to migrate.  Those who the Burmese authorities identified as Bangladeshi have been deported, while the others remain in makeshift camps.  In a separate incident, when Aung San Suu Kyi was asked this week whether Rohingya should be given citizenship, she did not give a clear answer, instead saying that the matter should be addressed “very, very carefully.”  At her 70th birthday celebration, she called on her National League of Democracy (NLD) supporters to prepare for a landslide victory in this year’s election.  However, their chances could be hampered by irregular voting lists, which the NLD claimed were frequently erroneous and contained errors in 30 to 80% of names in Rangoon Division.  The NLD will likely not get much support from Ma Ba Tha, and a prominent monk told the Buddhist nationalist organization to vote for the incumbent government rather than the opposition NLD.  At the same conference, Ma Ba Tha called for Muslim girls to be banned from wearing headscarves in schools.

Eight representatives of Burma’s ethnic minorities met with Chinese officials, following in the footsteps of Aung San Suu Kyi’s visit to China last week.  In Shan State, ethnic armed group The Restoration Council of Shan State was caught in controversy, where a prominent member of the Ta’ang National Party accused the armed group of abducting his party’s president and secretary.

A senior military MP has made clear his opposition to a change to constitutional Article 436.  The NLD has been trying to change the provision that requires a 75% vote to pass legislation.  As unelected military MPs are given 25% of seats, it essentially gives the military a veto.  Brigadier General Tin San Niang said Burma did not have enough experience with democracy to remove the provision.

Amnesty International has released a report on the harassment and limitations Burmese journalists face.  Although Burma removed many long-standing restrictions on journalists in 2012, journalist still operate in a climate of fear.  Burma’s government has dismissed the claims.

Central African Republic (CAR)

The controversy over Anders’ Kompass decision to send French authorities a report on French peacekeeper sex abuse in CAR continues.  It has created an internal split in the UN, with High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad al Hussein seeing the disclosure as a leak while many see Kompass as a whistleblower.  The UN has hired an external panel to investigate the allegations.  There was also a new case of peacekeeper sex abuse that emerged this week.

CAR has scheduled the electoral calendar for this year.  A census will take place between June 27th and July 27th, a referendum on the new constitution will take place on October 4th, Presidential and Parliamentary elections will occur on October 18th, and if a second round of elections is needed it will take place on November 22nd.  The elections will require a budget of $34.6 million, but only about half of that has already been funded.  Additionally, the National Elections Observatory has called for reform in the electoral code to improve the elections.

DR Congo (DRC)

Clashes took place in North Kivu with Congolese soldiers facing off against Mai Mai and FDLR combatants.  There do not appear to have been heavy casualties.  There was also fighting in Garamba National Park, where poachers killed two soldiers and one ranger in an ambush.  The poachers are believed to be from South Sudan, which borders the park.  In Western DRC, there was a riot at a camp for ex-militants.  The camp houses over 800 surrendered militants from multiple groups.  After a rumor started that a guard had stolen $30,000 intended for rations at the camp, a riot broke out and the militants demanded to be set free and allowed to return home.

The preparations for the upcoming elections have been disrupted by duplicates on a number of electoral lists for provincial elections.  Candidates have asked for ten days to correct the problems.

The McCain Institute has released rare polling data from North Kivu.  The poll found people had little trust in the electoral commission and 77% of people opposed changing the constitution to allow a third term for Joseph Kabila.  The Congolese military and police were given 69% and 57% approval ratings, respectively, while UN peacekeepers only got a 21% approval rating.  Large majorities approved of measures to increase female representatives in government.

South Sudan

The SPLM-IO has said it remains committed to the Arusha process but said the talks should not be in Juba.  Meanwhile, Riek Machar met with Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta in Nairobi.  Also, Pagan Amul has been reinstated as SPLM Secretary-General.  The SPLM convened a special meeting after the appointment.

The South Sudanese government has announced that it plans to resume oil production in Unity state.  Oil production has been stopped for over a year because of instability resulting from the war.  The UN had criticism for the South Sudanese government, saying the SPLM has consistently failed to cooperate with the UN and not given proper access to UN workers in the country.  In Western Bahr el Ghazal state, the government arrested a journalist without explanation before releasing him the next day.

Four women and one man were injured in a shooting at an IDP camp in Juba.  While the perpetrators are not confirmed, residents of the camp accused government soldiers.  The SPLM-IO also had accusations for the SPLM, claiming they had restarted fighting in Jonglei state in violation of the cessation of hostilities agreement.

Sudan

The continuation of UNAMID remains in question.  Its mandate has been extended for a year by the African Union, although an exit strategy remains in place.  However, the UN Security Council still must approve the measure for it to take effect, but that vote has been postponed until next week.  The Sudanese government had called for the mandate not to be renewed while the United States insisted that it should be.  UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon also called for the renewal of the mandate.

President Omar al-Bashir announced Sudan would conduct a census in 2018, the country’s first since the succession of South Sudan.  In another announcement, he said that the army had obtained weapons that made it a “large and sophisticated deterrent force.”  The Sudanese government also criticized the United States for its failure to remove Sudan from the state sponsors of terrorism list, citing “double standards.”

The leader of the Reform Now Movement, Ghazi Salah al-Din Attabani, has criticized the government’s conduct during peace negotiations.  He warned that if dialogue did not succeed Sudan would have a major security problem.

Syria

Multiple armed groups have engaged in heavy fighting over the last week.  Supported by US airstrikes, the Kurdish YPG made large advances into ISIS territory, capturing a military base and the town Ain Issa.  The advance placed themselves within 50 km of ISIS’s capital, Raqqa, but Kurdish forces have said they do not intend to march on Raqqa.  Turkey, an opponent of the YPG, was concerned with their advance and accused the YPG of ethnic cleansing.  However, ISIS responded by attacking the important Kurdish-held city Kobani as well as Assad-held areas in Hasakah.  In Deraa, an alliance of rebels fought government forces in an attempt to take the city.

ISIS has moved to stop oil flows to areas controlled by other forces.  As ISIS controls almost all of Syria’s oil, civilians are fearful that hospitals may not be able to function and that there will be massive food shortages.  The think tank Chatham House released a report detailing the extent of Syria’s economic collapse as a result of the war, and said that it could weaken the Assad regime.  The war has also led to increased class divisions, with middle and upper classes tending to support Assad while lower classes support the rebels.  The Assad regime also still has support from Russia, and President Putin reaffirmed his position that Assad should stay in power.

The UN released a report documenting attacks on civilians from the Assad government and rebels, noting that the Assad government has bombed Aleppo daily for the last year.  The Assad government has also struck ten medical facilities with barrel bombs since May.  Over 70 countries condemned the Assad government for their human rights abuses.

Emerging Conflicts: Iraq

Conflict continues to rage in Iraq as ISIS conducted a number of attacks in the last week.  Northeast of Fallujah ISIS attacked Iraqi army forces and then lured them into an ambush, killing 14.  In western Anbar province, rockets killed nine after hitting a number of civilian installations, while six were killed after a car bomb exploded in Baghdad.  In Diyala province, 14 people were killed when an ISIS suicide bomber attacked a meeting of Sunni tribal leaders.

Four years after exiting Iraq, NATO plans to renew their involvement in the conflict.  Details are not completely determined yet, but it seems likely that NATO will train Iraqi troops.  The WHO, however, may be forced to shut down their network of 77 clinics in the country due to poor funding and a lack of security.  Meanwhile, US airstrikes continue, one of which killed ISIS commander and suspect in the Benghazi attack, Ali Awni al-Harzi.  Another airstrike may have caused a number of civilian casualties, and the Pentagon has launched an investigation into the strike.

Sixteen Burmese soldiers were killed and over 100 wounded during fighting between the Burmese Army and the Kokang rebels of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). The fighting erupted on Thursday, April 16 in northeastern Burma near the border with China. More than 40 civilians were injured according to reports. The fighting comes just after a draft national ceasefire agreement was reached last week and the Burmese Army apologized to Beijing for bombing rebels in Chinese territory. In the past two months, fighting between the Burmese Army and MNDAA has killed over 100 people and displaced thousands of civilians, though the exact number is not known due to the remote location of the conflict.

On Friday, April 10, the first of six party talks on constitutional reform was held. The talks’ six participants include President Thein Sein, opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, speaker of the lower house of parliament Shwe Man, speaker of the upper house of Parliament Khin Aung Myint, commander-in-chief of the military Ming Aung Hlaing, and ethnic representative Aye Maung. The group agreed to amend the constitution written in 2008, which many critics believe give too much power to the once-ruling military. Currently, one in every four seats of Burma’s parliament are reserved for military personnel. Additionally, the constitution bans candidates with foreign-born children from running for president, a clause many believe was written specifically to target Aung San Suu Kyi.

The Burmese government has reportedly hired a Washington, DC lobbying firm, the Podesta Group, to represent the country’s interests in the United States at the cost of $840,000 per annum. The Podesta Group was established in the late 1980s, and its founders have close ties to the Clinton and Obama Administrations, as well as Hillary Clinton’s current presidential campaign.

Central African Republic (CAR)

On April 13, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) reported that it reunited eleven displaced children with their families in the Central African Republic. The children were forced to seek refuge in Chad over a year ago in the wake of CAR’s sectarian civil war. This was the first family reunion operation between Chad and the Central African Republic since the start of the conflict in December 2013, though one of many that the ICRC conducts on a periodic basis.

The environment was less optimistic at the United Nations Security Council, where on April 14 the Secretary-General’s Special Representative, Babacar Gaye, told the body’s representatives that conflict between Muslim Séléka and Christian anti-Balaka militias are still ongoing. He expressed hope however for the upcoming Bangui Forum on reconciliation, which he noted would be an “important milestone” in the CAR’s transition. He also noted that while MINUSCA, the UN peacekeeping force in CAR, has performed remarkably in stabilizing the country, “[r]estoring security, promoting an inclusive political dialogue and completing the transition is just the beginning of the CAR’s long journey towards stability and sustainable development”.

On April 16, President Barack Obama nominated Jeffrey Hawkins Jr., a career foreign service officer, to become the U.S. ambassador to the Central African Republic.  Mr. Hawkins would replaced Ambassador Lawrence Wohlers, who has served as Ambassador to CAR since September 2010.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

The UN Security Council (UNSC) renewed MONUSCO’s mandate at the end of last month, reducing the mission’s troop size by 2,000. The mandate renewal comes at a time of turmoil for many parts of the DRC: armed groups such as the Force de résistance patriotique de l’Ituri (FRPI) and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) remain active in Orientale province, while the FDLR continues to destabilize parts of North Kivu. The renewal also comes at a time of tension between the UN and the Congolese government. While both parties desire a reduction in militia-sponsored violence, Kinshasa refuses to accept UN intervention in its political affairs as the 2016 elections cycle approaches.

Controversy emerged in early April as Congolese authorities acknowledged the existence of a mass grave containing over 400 corpses in Maluku, a suburb of Kinshasa. Authorities reportedly buried the bodies under the cover of darkness on March 19. UN officials continue to call for the government to exhume the bodies, while the state remains ambiguous on any action it plans to take. While the Kabila administration maintains that the deceased include unborn fetuses and members of the Kinshasa homeless community, advocates suspect that the number may also include victims of government suppression related to pro-democracy activism. The interim governor of Kinshasa, Robert Luzolamu Mavema, accused Congo’s Red Cross of complicity in the mass burial, though the organization denies these claims.

In late 2013, the UN deployed its first ever contingent of unarmed aerial vehicles (UAVS or “drones”) in organization history in eastern DRC, to monitor the movements of armed groups across difficult terrain. Some neighboring states voiced concerns that the drones may serve covert purposes across international borders, while others welcomed the technology as a tool to combat illegal militias. In February 2015, the UN released a peacekeeping performance report favoring the use of UAV technology in conflict regions. In late March, the UNSC adopted a resolution calling for accountability in the organization’s use of these “flying cameras.” Many within the UN view drone surveillance as the next frontier for civilian protection and combating human rights abuses.

Syria

Last week, Islamic State forces besieged the primarily Palestinian refugee-inhabited city of Yarmouk. Since ISIS seized control of the city, the humanitarian situation for the 18,000 residents has rapidly deteriorated. Though the invasion of ISIS has further blocked residents’ access to humanitarian aid, even prior to the siege by ISIS, Syrian military forces impeded the delivery of vital supplies and provision of medical treatment to its residents. United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has called Yarmouk refugee camp “the deepest circle of hell,” and is coordinating a mission to secure humanitarian access to civilians with UNRWA commissioner general, Pierre Krähenbühl. Speculation has emerged that the mission may include negotiations with Islamic State militants. Krähenbühl is currently in Syria consulting the U.N. special envoy on methods of transmitting humanitarian aid to Yarmouk residents.

A new report released by Human Rights Watch claims that the Syrian regime used toxic chemical weapons against Syrian civilians in a spate of barrel bomb attacks this March. The reports are confirmed by recorded videos, as well as eyewitness accounts of civilians, local activists, and journalists. The accounts contain reports of barrel bombings from helicopters, and numerous civilian and medical-practitioners suspecting the use of chlorine as a chemical weapon. Responding to the disclosure of this evidence, a Syrian security official claimed that the accusations were “lies the insurgents say when they incur losses.”

The United Nations has announced a series of peace talks to take place in May, facilitated by U.N. Syria envoy, Staffan de Mistura. According to U.N. spokesman, Stephane Dujarric, the talks will involve separate consultations between de Mistura and key parties involved in the conflict. The talks will entail a revival of the failed 2012 Geneva comminiqué, a proposal that outlined a political transition for Syria but failed to address the future of Bashar al-Assad’s presidency. A U.N. official in Geneva claims that Iran, which did not sign onto the Geneva communiqué, may participate in the talks, though this has yet to be confirmed by other U.N. officials.

Emerging Conflicts: Bangladesh

Over 100 people have been killed since January in political violence in Bangladesh. The violence centers around the conflict between Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and opposition leader Khaleda Zia. Hasina is the head of the ruling Awami League, while Zia is the head of the Bangladesh National Party and the wife of former military dictator Ziaur Rahman. The Bangladesh National Party is also allied with fellow opposition party Jamaat-e-Islami.

Over 300 people were killed in 2013 in conflicts between supporters of the two parties. In January 2014, the opposition boycotted the election and a number of clashes took place between the two parties. Then, on January 5, the anniversary of the 2014 elections, the opposition called for protests against the ruling party. Zia called for her supporters to block roads and railways, but a number of other protests took place as well. The government responded with a harsh crackdown, arresting over 7,000 opposition members. At least 35 opposition activists have also been assassinated. Violence was particularly heavy around January 20. Tactics on boths sides have been brutal, including burning opponents alive with petrol and bombing busses.

Violence continues, and Zia maintains that Hasina should step down and new elections should be held. The economy has suffered enormously from the instability. The garment industry, key to Bangladesh’s economy, has seen exports fall by a third.

STAND, the US-based student movement to end mass atrocities, is merging with the Aegis Trust as the US branch of the Aegis Youth Department. Founded in 2003 by a group of Georgetown students, over the following years STAND chapters sprang up at schools and colleges across the USA. Originally an acronym for ‘Students Taking Action Now: Darfur’, STAND subsequently expanded its focus to the prevention of genocide and mass atrocities wherever they may occur. 

This is a mission shared by the Aegis Trust, which developed in 2000 from the work of the UK National Holocaust Centre. Aegis addresses genocide as a public health issue and works to prevent it in three stages; first, through commemoration and peace-building education designed to break long-term cycles of violence; second, through research, evidence-based policy advice and advocacy for people now at risk of mass atrocities; third, through support for survivors and communities trying to rebuild when genocide is past.

Responsible for the Kigali Genocide Memorial in Rwanda – a site where some 250,000 victims of the 1994 Rwandan genocide lie buried – Aegis is now being urged by leading figures in Kenya, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic (CAR) to take its successful model for peacebuilding beyond Rwanda’s borders.

In particular, the move to help CAR is backed by a youth-led campaign launched in February by STAND and Aegis Students, the youth arm of the Aegis Trust. With STAND now sharing the Aegis umbrella, ‘Action for CAR’ (www.action4CAR.org) promises to be the first such international youth-led campaign.

“Aegis is an international leader in the field of genocide prevention and we’re excited to be a part of their expansion,” said Natasha Kieval, Student Director at STAND. Mac Hamilton, STAND Executive Manager added, “Merging with Aegis strengthens our impact and broadens our resources to fight against genocide and mass atrocities internationally. By joining Aegis, with their focus on youth empowerment for peacebuilding, we will only expand our commitment to experiential student leadership.”

“We have long admired the passion and commitment of our colleagues at STAND. The Aegis team is delighted to be joined by them in this merger,” says Swims, CEO of the Aegis Trust. “We know from experience just how important youth-led advocacy and peacebuilding are in breaking cycles of violence, and we look forward to working closely with our American colleagues not only for the Central African Republic, but ultimately for the prevention of mass atrocities wherever people are at risk.”

The Burmese government has signed a draft ceasefire agreement with the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT). The NCCT is a group representing 16 different armed groups in Burma and has been in talks with the Burmese government for months. Fighting between the Burmese Army and Kachin Independence Army (KIA) regularly interrupted the talks. The draft agreement was later called “a historic and significant achievement” by the United Nations. A nationwide ceasefire has been one of President Thein Sein’s most important and difficult goal since being elected in 2011.

On Thursday, Beijing announced that Burma had apologized and accepted responsibility for bombing the Chinese province of Yunnan last month. Five people were reportedly killed as fighting between the Burmese Army and a group called the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army moved across the border to China.

Central African Republic (CAR)

The border between the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of the Congo has been a hotbed of activity in recent months. Since the arrest of Dominic Ongwen, a top commander in the Lord’s Resistance Army, the LRA has intensified its attacks on villages across the border. On March 21, the LRA kidnapped 15 Congolese refugees and 1 Congolese national and held them for several days before releasing 13 of them. The LRA, a militant group best known for being the subject of “Kony 2012” has been the subject of international attention for its widespread atrocities and use of child soldiers. The kidnappings have inflamed relations between CAR and the DRC.

In another incident, residents in eastern Cameroon reportedly killed a number of suspected fighters from CAR who had attempted a large-scale kidnapping. This followed an attack earlier in the month, when fighters from CAR had kidnapped 16 people near the border. Some suspect that the attack was launched by a rebel group known as the Democratic Front of the Central African People (FDPC), which was at one point a part of the Seleka militia that overthrew the national government in March 2013. The leader of the FDPC was arrested in Cameroon in 2013, and the FDPC retaliated by abducting 26 people. While Cameroon eventually released their leader, tensions were never fully resolved.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

On March 26, the UN Security Council (UNSC) renewed MONUSCO’s mandate. UNSC Resolution 2211 (2015) authorizes MONUSCO to remain in eastern Congo through March of 2016. The new resolution cuts the mission’s troop strength by 2,000 peacekeepers, while retaining an existing 21,000 troop maximum that allows the UN to send additional troops in response to security concerns. Tension remains between the Kabila administration and MONUSCO, and Kabila continues to call for an immediate troop drawdown of 6,000 peacekeepers and to request an explicit timetable for the UN’s departure from the DRC. Speaking for the administration, DRC information minister Lambert Mende said, “no one should come here within the bureaucracy of the UN to transform our country into a colony.” Civil society endorsement of the mandate renewal remains far more positive, however, suggesting that the administration’s views may not represent those of the nation.

National elections in 2016 may prove a crucial test case for the efficacy of Western electoral aid in promoting democracy abroad. On Tuesday, March 31, President Barack Obama called Congolese President Joseph Kabila to express concern over the head of state’s refusal to explicitly refute suspicions that he may seek an illegal third term in 2016. With the departure of U.S. Special Envoy to the Great Lakes Region Russ Feingold in late February, Western influence in the DRC appears at a crossroads. In response to the detention of a U.S. diplomat earlier this month, the Kabila administration responded that the Congo was not a “sub-prefecture of the United States.” The diplomat has since been released. Meanwhile, activists of the pro-democracy Filimbi movement from Congo, Senegal, and Burkina Faso remain in government custody.

MONUSCO Mission Chief Martin Kobler maintains that the Congolese army’s (FARDC) counter-FDLR operations stand to achieve only limited success in the absence of UN support. Civil society representatives from North Kivu met with Kobler in late March to convey concerns regarding the negative impact that the FARDC offensive continues to impose on Congolese civilians, and to ask the mission to work with Congolese authorities to mitigate these risks. While the FARDC claims success in neutralizing nearly 200 FDLR rebels and driving the force out of twelve towns in the Kivus, residents in North and South Kivu note that the militia retains effective governance over a non-negligible number of towns and villages in the region.

Syria

During an official visit to Damascus, Iraqi Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to discuss increased coordination between the two countries in opposition to Islamic State forces. The current Iraqi government is among the few Arab countries that have continued to voice support for Assad, in spite of the suspension of Syria’s membership from the Arab League in 2011. Although the United States and Iraq coordinate militarily in opposition to the Islamic State, the United States refuses to ally itself with the Syrian regime in this capacity, on account of Assad’s ongoing actions in the Syrian Civil War.

This week, a United States warplane airdropped approximately 60,000 anti-ISIS propaganda leaflets over Raqqa, the de facto capital of ISIS. The comic-like flyers graphically depict potential recruits lining up in an ISIS recruitment office, only to be placed into a meat grinder. According to Pentagon Spokesman Colonel Steve Warren, the leaflets are intended to discourage people from joining ISIS because, “It’s not beneficial to your health.”

With the Syrian conflict entering its fifth year, the surge in refugees in neighboring countries has been matched by a massive jump in the number of Syrians seeking asylum. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 150,000 Syrians applied for asylum last year, marking a 166 percent increase in Syrian applications since 2013. Syrians alone comprise approximately one-fifth of all asylum seekers.

Chief of the prominent Nusra Front opposition group, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, is calling for greater unity among different Muslim factions in the Syrian city of Idlib, as well as the establishment of a religious court to preside over local issues and restore legal order to the city. In November, the Nusra Front gained control of Idlib by ousting several Western-backed Syrian opposition groups. Al-Jolani has categorically rejected Western support in the fight against ISIS and the Assad regime.

Emerging Conflicts: Yemen

Yemen is in disarray and civilians continue to suffer heavy costs. The Houthis, a primarily northern Shi’ite rebellion, took over the capital, Sana’a, in January. President Abdu Rabu Mansur Hadi fled with his government to the southern city of Aden, one of the government’s last remaining areas of control. However, the Houthis are now fighting to take over Aden as well. President Hadi has fled to Saudi Arabia and heavy fighting continues throughout the city.

The Houthis and Iran have been developing a loose alliance. The Houthi rebellion has also been bolstered by support from the former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was forced from office after a series of protests in 2012. Saleh, formerly an opponent of the Houthis, has joined their attempt to remove President Hadi from power, although it is unclear whether this alliance will last. Saudi Arabia remains a staunch ally of the Hadi government, and fears increased Shia and Iranian power in the region. On March 25, Saudi Arabia began leading airstrikes against the Houthis, and may even launch a ground invasion in the future. The United States, also a supporter of the Hadi government, joined the coalition along with Egypt, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Bahrain, Jordan, and Sudan. However, the conflict between the Houthis and the Hadi government is not the only conflict in Yemen. A southern separatist movement and a strong al-Qaeda branch, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) both remain active in Yemen.

The conflict is causing massive human costs for Yemeni civilians. The economy is already one of the poorest in the region and economic activity has been heavily disrupted by the fighting. On March 21, a group claiming to be a Yemeni branch of the Islamic State sent suicide bombers into mosques in Sana’a, killing 142 people. UN Humanitarian Chief Valerie Amos estimates that 519 people have been killed in the last two weeks. Heavy fighting in the densely populated cities of Sana’a and Aden has been especially dangerous.

Saudi airstrikes are also incurring massive civilian casualties. On March 30, 29 people were killed when an airstrike hit a camp for internally displaced persons. On March 31, 6 civilians, including four children, were burned to death when an airstrike hit a fuel depot. The next day, 27 people were killed after a strike hit a dairy factory. Humanitarian aid agencies have also struggled to get support into the country due to a Saudi-led blockade. Heightened security risks have put further pressure on the distribution of humanitarian aid, as a Red Crescent worker was recently shot and killed.

The International Crisis Group has called for an immediate ceasefire and a diplomatic solution to the conflict. The Houthis recently expressed their openness to talks, provided that the Saudi-led coalition halts its bombing campaign and that negotiations are conducted by “non-aggressive” parties.

Nine soldiers from the Burmese Army and one from the Ta’and National Liberation Army or the TNLA] have died during clashes in Burma’s northern Shan State. The source of this clash is uncertain. The TNLA and Kachin Independence Army (KIA) are the only two ethnic militias yet to sign a ceasefire agreement with the Burmese government. Talks were scheduled for February 12, but have since been postponed until later this month.

In their annual report on human rights, Human Rights Watch said that, “After two years of steady if uneven progress, Burma’s human rights situation was a car crash in 2014.” The report cited the country’s ongoing persecution of Muslim Rohingya, backtracking on media freedoms, continuing imprisonment of political prisoners, and maintenance of military personnel in the Parliament. Brad Adam, the Asia director at Human Rights Watch, said, “The army is still calling the shots on major issues, while the government seems confident it has satisfied other countries to keep the aid and investment dollars flowing.”

In addition, a United Nations human rights envoy to Burma was criticized by the Burmese government in response to their recent visit. Burma claimed the visit infringed upon Burma’s sovereignty and further contributed to domestic tensions. Yanghee Lee, the Special Rapporteur on human rights in Burma, claimed she and her team acted in a “constructive manner” and well within their mandate and Burma’s obligations to various human rights treaties.

Burma has officially opened a deep-sea port for a Chinese oil pipeline off the country’s west coast, according the AP. The project is a joint enterprise between two state-run companies, one Burmese and the other Chinese.

Central African Republic (CAR)

An unconditional cease-fire was reached between the Séléka and the Anti-balaka factions on Thursday, 5 February in the Kenyan capital of Nairobi. Former Speaker of the Kenyan National Assembly, Kenneth Marende, served as a mediator between representatives of the two factions. Reportedly, the parties agreed to “a cessation of hostilities, and a DDRR (Disarmament, Demobilization, Rehabilitation, and Reintegration) agreement.” The interim government of President Catherine Samba-Panza was not a party to the dialogue.

While this is a positive step towards peace and reconciliation, there is little to guarantee the success of this most recent cease-fire. Previous cease-fires have been ignored or reneged upon, either by the signatory parties or by the CAR government, which has struggled to assert authority over the peacemaking process. Less than one week ago, the CAR government challenged the legitimacy of a separate peace deal reached by Séléka and Anti-balaka leaders because it occurred outside of the official government-led peace dialogue.

In other news, the scale of weapons proliferation in CAR was highlighted this week by reports of Chinese-made hand grenades selling for less than the cost of a soft drink in Bangui. Locals can purchase grenades on the black market for less than a dollar, a worrying fact due to the potential risk of upsetting the uneasy cease-fire. The ease of access that any civilian with grievances against the Séléka or the Anti-balaka has to weapons in CAR may undermine the success of this and future cease-fire agreements.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

The Congolese parliament convened in January to discuss a proposed electoral law, which would link upcoming 2016 presidential elections to a national census. A census provision, included in Article 8 of the law, would likely delay elections by up to three years and prolong current President Joseph Kabila’s tenure. In response to the proposal, a week of civil society protests and the corresponding law enforcement crackdown left 20 to 40 demonstrators dead. In the end, parliament rejected Article 8, exposing division in the political coalition of President Joseph Kabila. Opposition activists view the rejection of Article 8 as a partial victory. They are now calling for the Congolese electoral commission (CENI) to release an explicit timetable for the upcoming elections. In a press statement on 5 February, Congolese Information Minister Lambert Mende announced that Kabila intends to step down after his term ends in 2016.

On 29 January, President Kabila announced the beginning of Congolese military (FARDC) operations against the FDLR, a rebel militia in eastern Congo with an estimated 1,400-2,000 remaining combatants. Kabila’s statement came as a surprise to UN officials, who threatened to withdraw support from the offensive after the DRC government appointed two generals accused of mass rape and summary executions as commanders of the operation. DRC information minister Lambert Mende stated on 5 February that the FARDC plans to move forward with military operations while retaining the accused, Generals Bruno Mandevu and Sikabwe Fall, as commanders. The FDLR expressed a commitment to disarmament once more on 30 January, while the U.S. Department of State expressed support for the offensive, provided that operations are “conducted in a way that protects and minimizes the impact on civilians, in accordance with international law, including international humanitarian law, and in line with the UN’s human rights due diligence policy.”

Criticism continues to amass in opposition to Dodd-Frank Section 1502, a provision in a U.S. law intended to regulate trade in conflict minerals in the DRC. Critics assert that the law poses harmful consequences for the nearly ten million Congolese civilians who depend on mining to earn a living. Rather than freeing these miners from forced labor and human rights abuses, skeptics maintain that, in the absence of livelihood support programs, the law pushes newly unemployed miners deeper into poverty. Proponents of conflict minerals policy contest that in the months following Dodd-Frank’s enactment, two-thirds of surveyed mines in eastern Congo became certifiably conflict free. They also note a reduction in violence against civilians in many mining communities.

Syria

A British monitor, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), has released a report claiming that so far this year ISIS has killed 50 civilians accused of religious dissent, apostasy, or spying on behalf of enemy fighters. In November, SOHR released a report claiming that ISIS had killed 1,432 captives, civilians, and combatants since the Islamic State declared a caliphate in June 2014.

The Islamic State released a video depicting a man, identified as Jordanian military pilot Moath al-Kasasbeh, being burned alive. ISIS captured al-Kasasbeh in December after he ejected himself from his F-16 fighter jet. The video comes three days after the news of the second decapitation of a Japanese hostage, Kenji Goto, at the hands of ISIS. King Abdullah of Jordan responded to the news of al-Kasasbeh’s murder by cutting short his trip to Washington to return home. In an online video broadcast, King Abdullah voiced his solidarity with the pilot’s family, claiming that the event would “only make us stronger.” A Jordanian army spokesperson said that the nation’s reaction to the murder would “be proportional to this catastrophe that has struck all Jordanians.” Jordan’s immediate response has included the execution of Iraqi prisoner and failed suicide bomber, Sajida al-Rishawi, whose release was demanded by ISIS in exchange for the life of Goto. As King Abdullah met with the pilot’s family, the Jordanian military carried out air strikes against an ISIS stronghold in the Syrian city of Raqqa. Commenting on the air strikes, a Jordanian army statement said it was “just the beginning.”

The Islamic State has retreated from the northern region of Kobani, admitting that repeated US airstrikes were the primary impetus. Kurdish forces, assisted by the US military, celebrated the victory as an important step toward expelling ISIS entirely from the region. In September 2014, ISIS captured over 300 towns in the region, forcing the exodus of 200,000 Kurdish residents. Although a few villages outside Kobani remain under ISIS control, Kurdish officials said that Kurdish YPG fighters have launched an offensive to reclaim the territories.

Emerging Conflicts: Ukraine

Ukraine is at a crossroads after heavy fighting in recent weeks.  Despite the signing of the Minsk agreement, which called for an immediate ceasefire to the fighting, in September, conflict has continued in the Donbass region. Little progress has been made by pro-Russian rebels or Ukrainian forces. Although Russia maintains that it is not sending weapons or troops into Ukraine, the Ukrainian government has repeatedly insisted that this is not the case.

Fighting has escalated in the last few weeks with shelling of civilian areas common. In the last three weeks of January at least 224 civilians were killed, according to the UN High Commissioner on Human Rights. The violence has been most severe in the Donetsk region, much of which has been proclaimed part of the Donetsk People’s Republic. The heaviest fighting in this area has taken place in Debaltseve, which is still controlled by Ukrainian troops but is nearly surrounded by rebel forces. Much of the town has been forced to evacuate. While the Ukrainian army has held its ground so far, it lacks resources and strong leadership and looks likely to lose the town. Additionally, Alexander Zakharchenko, the leader of the rebels, has called to increase his army to 100,000 troops. The city of Donetsk has also seen shelling in recent days.

Foreign nations are weighing decisions that look likely to change the course of the conflict. NATO has announced that it will be creating a 5,000 soldier rapid response force to support Ukraine. While the US has avoided arming Ukrainian forces throughout the conflict, it is considering sending arms. However, the news that President François Hollande of France and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany will be meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin have raised some hope of an upcoming peace plan.

Ukraine has a number of worries besides the most recent fighting. The Ukrainian economy is in collapse and the hryvnia was the worst performing currency in the world last year. The IMF is currently negotiating a bailout with the Ukrainian government. Over 5,000 people have been killed in the conflict since it began in early 2014.

According to recent reports, as many as 2,000 civilians from both Burma and China are trapped in Burma’s northeast due to ongoing fighting. The fighting erupted primarily around jade mines between the Burmese army and the Kachin Independence Army in Kachin State. Further straining the relationship between Burma and China is the arrest of more than 100 Chinese citizens, also in Kachin State. Burmese officials believe that those arrested were planning to engage in illegal jade mining or logging. Chinese officials questioned the validity of the charges and are currently pursuing diplomatic channels to resolve the growing tensions between the two countries.

Burma’s Parliament is considering a 20% budget increase to boost educational, defence, and health initiatives for the next fiscal year’s budget, which would begin on April 1, 2015. How to allocate funding between military initiatives and social services is under debate. Burma is the poorest country in Southeast Asia, but according to Burma’s constitution, the military is guaranteed 25% of the seats in Parliament. Burma’s Parliament also heard debates on so-called “religious protection” bills that would put restrictions on interfaith marriage and religious conversions in an effort to strengthen the relative majority position of Buddhism in the predominantly Buddhist country. Many critics of the bill believe it will specifically target the Rohingya, a predominantly Muslim group in Burma’s west that are denied citizenship, used as force labor, made to live in camps, and denied other basic rights by the Burmese government, which is justified by a 1982 citizenship law.

Central African Republic

Séléka fighters attempted to kidnap two senior CAR government officials this week, highlighting the continued instability and the growing boldness of the Séléka rebel coalition. The CAR Minister for Youth and Sport, Armel Ningatoloum Sayo, was kidnapped on January 25th by a group of armed gunmen; his present fate remains unclear. In a separate incident, Séléka fighters also attempted to kidnap the CAR Minister of Education, Eloi Anguimate, as he was traveling through a northern market town. Anguimate managed to escape his captors; however, his accompanying assistants and several local officials were taken captive.

The United States issued a statement condemning the kidnappings and recent attacks against UN officials and humanitarian aid workers. The statement reaffirmed U.S. support for free and democratic elections, while condemning those “who would foment violence and disrupt the transition process.” Earlier in the week, two French aid workers working for a Catholic medical organization were also kidnapped—ironically by Christian anti-balaka fighters.

Leaders from the United Nations joined the U.S. in condemning the violent militia leaders, calling for the establishment of an international tribunal to prosecute war crimes and crimes against humanity. The proposal stems from the findings of the International Commission of Inquiry on the Central African Republic, which issued a report in December of last year warning of ethnic cleansing and the growing risk of genocide.

In brighter news, the vice president of CAR’s Catholic bishop conference announced that Pope Francis intends to visit the war-torn country later in the year, in an effort to “bridge the gaps between [the Muslim and Christian populations] and direct them towards dialogue and reconciliation.”

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

On 19 January, protests erupted In Kinshasa and in other urban areas across the DRC-notably Goma and Bukavu in the east. Activists rallied against a proposed law that would tie 2016 presidential elections to a census, causing delays in the electoral process of up to several years and illegally extending current President Kabila’s tenure. In response to protests, Congolese police opened fire on demonstrators. Estimates put the total fatality count at 20-40 activists. The government also shut down mobile phone and internet-based communication for several days in an effort to curb the protests. Key Congolese opposition leader Étienne Tshisekedi released a statement on the second day of the demonstrations, expressing solidarity and condolences for victims of police brutality. On 23 January, the Congolese Senate heeded the will of the public and decided to reject the census measure. For a visual representation of the demonstrations, amateur video from Congolese videographers may be accessed here (warning: includes several graphic images).

In August, the DRC and its regional partners set a repatriation deadline for the FDLR militia, requiring forces to surrender or face military action by 2 January 2015. Martin Kobler, civilian chief of the United Nations peacekeeping force in the DRC (MONUSCO) estimates that 1,400 to 2,000 FDLR militants remain active in eastern Congo — a reduction of about 90% from the group’s original strength in 1994. While Kobler states that UN forces are trained and pre-deployed to mount an offensive against the group, U.N. peacekeeping chief Herve Lasdous warns that any action must proceed cautiously in an effort to limit civilian casualties, given the militia’s immersion within Congolese communities. Some analysts believe that military action on the part of MONUSCO and the Congolese army (FARDC) is unlikely to yield success against the FDLR, chiefly because the militia is likely to simply flee under military pressure.

Fifteen years ago, the United Nations (UN) passed UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1325, calling on women to actively participate in international peacebuilding processes. In eastern Congo, while awareness of Resolution 1325 continues to grow, women still experience significant barriers to participation in the peace process. Women in prominent political and civic roles often face accusations of promiscuity from their male peers, to the effect that many remain pressured into silence. Women activists lament that where peacekeeping organizations may have gender quotas to ensure female representation, the females in these organizations are often forced to accept marginal roles.

Sudan

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), an international non-governmental organization dedicated to providing medical aid to those in need, stated late last week that the Sudanese government is systematically blocking aid from reaching civilians. Because of the government’s continued interference in aid delivery, the organization has stopped its mission in Sudan. After repeated government interference and the bombing of an MSF hospital, the organization has decided it is too risky to stay in a country where the government does not want them. Although some factions of MSF will stay behind in less hostile areas of Sudan, the majority of MSF work in the country will stop.

Additionally, there have been reports that Sudanese rebels in Sudan’s South Kordofan province have detained six Bulgarians working for the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP). The flight, which was scheduled to fly from South Sudan to Khartoum, had to land in an area determined an active war zone. The rebels suspected the helicopter of being a government army helicopter, and those aboard were removed from the aircraft for questioning. The rebels have stated that they will release the Bulgarian workers as soon as they confirm that they are with the WFP and “not for the benefit of the Sudanese government”.

Finally, reports have emerged that Sudan’s army has faced severe losses at the hands of the rebel forces. The government defeat reportedly came after local militias loyal to the Sudanese government known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) mutinied in a garrison in South Kordofan. The leader of the rebel faction, Yasser Arman stated that, “Bashir knows he cannot crush what he calls rebellion.” He also claimed that this was the largest attack on government forces since the outbreak of the war in 2011.

South Sudan

The African Union (AU) issued a statement on 31 January in Addis Abba, Ethiopia threatening potential sanctions on South Sudan. The proposed sanctions will be imposed on all warring parties in South Sudan who continue to violate the cessation of hostilities agreement. The United Nations Security Council and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the East African regional bloc, have also threatened to impose sanctions.

The African Union is currently under heat from many human rights organizations for deferring the publishing of its official report on the atrocities committed in South Sudan. According to Amnesty International, the African Union’s Commission of Inquiry has filed a report on the atrocities committed in South Sudan, but refuses to publish it. The commission’s job in South Sudan was to investigate human rights abuses committed by both sides of the conflict and offer recommendations for accountability. Amnesty accused the AU of failing “the thousands of South Sudanese victims who are waiting for truth and justice”.

Finally, President Salva Kiir and rebel rival, Riek Machar have been in peace talks in Addis Ababa since Wednesday. There were rumors that President Kiir was not healthy enough to attend talks, but these rumors were deemed untrue by doctors and the talks have resumed. WHile President Kiir and former Vice President Machar have agreed to form a unity government, they remain deadlocked over the powers of the future prime minister.

Syria

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), as of December 2014, 200,000 Syrians have been killed in the civil war that grew out of the Arab Spring in 2011. Director Rami Abdul Rahman of the British-based monitor claims that these numbers underestimate a much greater death toll, though this has yet to be confirmed by organizations such as the United Nations, which last updated its figure in August 2014.

After insufficient funding forced the suspension of a food assistance program to Syrian refugees, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) launched a successful 72-hour fundraising campaign that exceeded the $68 million needed to continue the program. Thanks to donors and continued cooperation between the WFP and host country governments, the United Nations resumed providing food vouchers to the 1.7 million Syrian refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, and Egypt.

New cases of foreign hostages by the Islamic State have surfaced, most notably the kidnapping of Japanese reporter Kenji Goto and military contractor Haruna Yukawa. In a video released to YouTube, their captors threatened the two Japanese citizens with murder, demanding $200 million (the same amount that Japanese President Shinzo Abe pledged in non-military aid to Middle Eastern countries combating the Islamic State) from Japan before the expiration of a 72-hour deadline. After failing to respond to the ransom, Islamic State released a photograph of Yukawa beheaded, and demanded the release of Jordanian militant, Sajida al-Rishawi, in order to spare Goto’s life.

The Saudi Arabian-backed Islamist armed opposition group, Islam Army, fired between 50 and 150 rockets on Damascus in one of the city’s largest attacks in a year, killing at least seven people. With the passing of Saudi Arabian King Abdullah and subsequent appointment of King Salman, it remains to be seen how the Kingdom will proceed in its commitment to fighting the Islamic State. Near Aleppo, the Al-Qaeda-supported Nusra Front attacked and killed four members of the western-backed Free Syrian Army group’s Hazm Movement. The Free Syrian Army’s Hazm Movement is supported by the United States and is among the few non-Islamist rebel groups that oppose Assad. Near the border between Turkey and Syria, Kurdish fighters backed by the United States have nearly reclaimed the town of Kobani from Islamic State militants who seized the territory in July of 2014. United States-backed forces have bombed Islamic State holdings in Kobani, and are aided by Syrian Kurdish YPG and Iraqi Kurdish groups in their efforts to expel Islamic State militants.

On the international front, results of a four-day consultation of Russian diplomats and experts by Syrian delegates were inconclusive, largely due to the absence of the Syrian National Coalition and other key stakeholders in the conflict. Russia continues to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and the Syrian and Russian delegations focused on the importance of fighting terrorism, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov offering to facilitate local cease-fires in Syria between the government and opposition forces.

In the United States, the Republican-led House Committee on Homeland Security, responsible for granting the admission of refugees to the US, questioned the Obama administration’s plan to resettle greater numbers of Syrian refugees. Congressional representatives sent a letter to the White House citing national security and terrorism concerns about the plan. The State Department’s expects to admit between 1000 and 2000 Syrian refugees this year, and is currently reviewing around 4000 applications for resettlement.

Emerging Conflicts: Yemen

Yemen’s state is on the verge of collapse after Houthi forces took over the capital of Sana’a on 20 January. The rebels beat back government forces and surrounded the capitol. After the rebels offered a number of demands to President Abdu Rabu Mansur Hadi, the President, his cabinet, and the Prime Minister chose to resign. The move seems to have caught the Houthis by surprise and it is not clear who is actually in charge of the country. While normally power would be transferred to the vice president, Hadi had still not named a vice president after three years in office. The next in line is the speaker of Parliament, Yahya al-Rai’i, but Yemen has not had parliamentary elections since 2003 and al-Rai’i only became speaker after his predecessor died in 2007.

The Houthis seem to have wanted large influence over the government but not to formally take it over. However, they have suggested that they will name a Presidential Council to rule the government. If the Houthis do take power, they will likely struggle to control the country.  The rebel group, which is from the north of the country, has little control over the South.  There have been reports that southern parts of the country will push for secession, but al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is also strong in that part of the country. Yemen is also heavily reliant on Saudi aid, and this would likely be withdrawn if the Houthis take power.  Another complication is that the Houthis rise to power was facilitated by an alliance with their long-term enemy, former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, but it is unclear how long that alliance will last. Saleh was forced to leave office in 2012 after major protests, but he seems to have worked with the Houthis to remove power from President Hadi. There is also the possibility that Hadi’s resignation will be rejected.

The conflict is shaped by religious affiliations and international political alliances, but these defy easy categorizations. Hadi’s government was Sunni and backed by the United States and Saudi Arabia. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is also Sunni but strongly opposed the ruling government and the Houthis. AQAP has been a major target of US drone strikes, making Yemen a key area of the United States’ counterterror strategy. The Houthis seem to have support from Iran but are acting independently. Both Iran and the Houthis are Shia, although they come from different sects, Twelver and Zaydi, respectively. While the Houthis are a Shia rebel group, they have also worked with Sunni groups in the past. They have tried to address many popular grievances with the government and have participated in nonviolent actions against the government. Still, the often aggressive methods of the Houthis have caused them to be distrusted by many Sunni groups.