Sudan and South Sudan

Sudan

On April 11, 2019,  after a week of thousands of protestors camping outside the nation’s military headquarters, the Sudanese military announced that President Omar al-Bashir had been arrested and ousted, marking the end of al-Bashir’s 30 year rule as an uncompromising and relentless ruler. On April 12, defense minister Lt. Gen. Awad Mohamed Ahmed Ibn Auf announced he would head a two year transitional period through a military council, with terms including the dissolution of the government and 10PM curfews for all citizens. Increased protests caused Ibn Auf to step down as head of the military council within 36 hours and he was replaced by Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan who lifted certain restrictions including curfews. After episodic violence during the protests, a 10-member delegation of protest organizers met with the military council at the country’s army headquarters in Khartoum. The military has agreed to allow civilian representatives on a supreme council to aid in the governing of Sudan, but refuse to allow a civilian majority out of fear of being overpowered and outvoted. Members of the military council have suggested three civilians and seven soldiers with a maximum of half of the council’s members consisting of civilian representatives. As of May 2, 2019, the Declaration of Freedom and Change Forces (DFCF), a group of opposition leaders, has submitted a draft constitution with proposals for a cabinet and a 120-person legislature during the transitional period. The DFCF is expecting a response from the military within two to three days, leaving the future of Sudan’s governance still up to negotiations.

South Sudan

Since South Sudan’s independence from Sudan in 2011 after a war over oil, religion, and ethnicity, the nation is once again in conflict and looking to commit to peace. As of April 18, 2019, opposition leader Riek Machar postponed the formation of a unified government until safety issues were resolved, as 2016’s peace agreements ended in Machar fleeing gunfire from President Salva Kiir’s troops. Machar’s return would have marked the establishment of a power-sharing government with Machar as vice president and Kiir as President. SPLM-IO, Machar’s rebel group, proposed delaying the formation of a transitional government for six more months as issues such as lacking security control and a unified South-Sudanese army have yet to be addressed.

Great Lakes of Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

In early April, the Democratic Republic of the Congo held gubernatorial elections for its 26 provinces after a two-week-long postponement due to allegations of vote buying among provincial delegates. Before votes were even announced, 11 people were injured in clashes between supporters of newly-elected President Felix Tshisekedi and his predecessor Joseph Kabila in Lubumbashi. On April 11, it was determined that, months after losing the seat to his presidency, Joseph Kabila’s party, Common Front for Congo (FCC), had claimed victory in 16 of the provinces while Tshisekedi’s party won only one province while an opposition faction was successful in one other. (The remaining provinces were either postponed or will require a second round of votes.) With this announcement, Kabila’s party currently holds comfortable majorities in both houses of parliament as well as provincial governorships, thus ensuring that the country has not yet rid themselves of Kabila. As a result of the provincial election results, Al Jazeera has reported that supporters of Tshisekedi took to the streets protesting against the landslide victory of the FCC while simultaneously trying to hold off claims made by Martin Fayulu, candidate in the December election, that the presidential election was the result of a deal brokered between Tshisekedi and Kabila.

April has also marked a deadly month in the DRC as a result of the months-long Ebola outbreak that has plagued the country. More than 1,000 people have died from Ebola in eastern Congo since August, and as of May 4 the number has risen to 1,008. Despite these staggering statistics, however, it was determined by an expert panel of the World Health Organization (WHO) that the crisis would not be declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) as of April 12. Professionals have predicted that this could have deadly consequences as such an announcement is necessary to draw greater attention and funding to fighting Ebola in the country.

Middle East

Yemen

The United States Senate failed to override Donald Trump’s veto of the Yemen War Powers Resolution, a bipartisan measure to end US military support for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, on Thursday, May 2 with a 53-45 vote. Currently, the US provides intelligence and sells arms and ammunition to the coalition, all of which are used to fuel the worsening humanitarian crisis in Yemen. This unfortunate vote comes at a time when over 70,000 people have been killed in the conflict between the Houthi rebels and the Saudi-led coalition since January 2016 and over 12.6 million are in need of drinking water and adequate sanitation services. Cases of cholera are rampant among the millions of Yemeni citizens in need of humanitarian aid, with some areas seeing as many as 2,000 cases or suspected cases of cholera per week. Humanitarian groups have been blocked by fighting, restrictions to access certain areas, and bureaucratic difficulties, making it incredibly difficult to mitigate the worst of the crisis and keeping many Yemeni citizens from receiving lifesaving aid.

After the Stockholm Agreement in December, in which Yemen’s Houthi rebels and its internationally recognized government made concessions with the goal of mitigating conflict, the warring groups agreed to withdraw troops from Hodeidah Hodeidah has been and continues to be a significant port city as it is the main entry for 70% of imports, including humanitarian aid. However, in a press statement released on April 17, the UN Security Council expressed concern that the agreements are not being implemented. Both parties have been urged to follow through on the agreement to de-escalate the conflict, although a disagreement about which group should control Hodeidah has hindered this approach.

Syria

Since the removal of ISIS from Syrian territory, thousands of women and children have fled to refugee camps within the country. With 12,000 women and children now residing within these camps — many of whom are the families of ISIS fighters— their potential repatriation has garnered international attention. In just one camp in northeastern Syria, 2,500 children of ISIS fighters are being held which has prompted the International Committee for the Red Cross to urge that these children be repatriated to their country of origin.

In the past month, Russian and Syrian-led air-raids have recommenced in what was once a demilitarized zone in Northwestern Syria. Schools, health facilities, and residential areas within the “safe-zone” have all been hit. Additionally, the UN regional humanitarian coordinator reported that the area was experiencing the worst barrel bombing in fifteen months. These barrel bombs are found to have killed at least 15 civilians. The increase in attacks is exemplified by the May 5th targeting of three hospitals. Two of the hospitals were put out of service and one, The Nabad Al Hayat Hospital was destroyed.

Reliefweb reports that, since April 21, 231,087 individuals have been displaced and 462,496 remain under attack. Additionally, in this time, at least one hundred civilians have been killed.  In the end of March, there were 6.2 million internally displaced people within the country and 11.7 people in need of humanitarian assistance.

Southeast Asia

Burma

In the past month, the Burmese government has continued to refuse to change its treatment of the Rohingya minority and has initiated a crackdown against critics of the government and national armed forces, refusing the right to freedom of speech and expression. Especially concerning was the Supreme Court’s decision to uphold seven-year prison sentences of two reporters in apparent retaliation for their implication of the armed forces in an investigation of a massacre of Rohingya villagers in Inn Din, Rakhine State. The situation of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh remains concerning as the government is ill-equipped to deal with the massive influx of refugees resulting in food shortages within refugee camps and the mistreatment of Rohingya refugees by Bangladeshi police, as well as the refusal of access to education for refugee children. Bangladesh is hoping to repatriate Rohingya as soon as possible after initial repatriation plans were delayed in November of 2018 but many refuse to return to the country until changes are made.

Throughout the past month, the international community has issued several responses to the persecution of the Rohingya. On April 29th, the EU council extended an embargo on arms and other materials that could be used for internal repression, issued travel bans to Myanmar, and froze assets on 14 top officials connected to serious human rights violations. These extensions will last until April 30, 2020. Efforts to address the persecution of the Rohingya have also been made in the U.S., where a bill proposing sanctions against the Burmese government due to their treatment of the Rohingya was introduced to the Senate on April 12th. Additionally, the status of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh was discussed at length during talks between the Russian and Bangladeshi governments on April 29th. During this discussion, Russia agreed to back Bangladesh in promoting the timely repatriation of the Rohingya by encouraging the Burmese government to create a safe environment for the Rohingya within their own home country. In April, UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Mark Lowcock, head of UN migration agency (IOM) António Vitorino, and UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Filippo Grandi took a joint visit to Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh. After this trip, the officials reiterated their concern for the Rohingya, imploring the Burmese government to end persecution and asking the international community to support the Bangladeshi government in providing aid to Rohingya refugees. The UN also condemned the deportation of 3 Rohingya refugees who were returned to Burma from India due to their lack of documentation.

Emerging Crises

Venezuela 

The situation in Venezuela continues to escalate. On April 30, Guaidó asked Venezuelans to join the “final phase” of the efforts to topple Maduro. On May Day, protestors took to the streets once again to demand Maduro’s resignation and they were violently suppressed with tear gas and rubber bullets. The military did not follow Guaidó’s demands for a revolt, exemplifying Maduro’s strong hold. On May 2, Maduro spoke on national television to frame the military’s support as a victory over the opposition’s attempt at a United States-backed coup.

The US claims that Maduro was prepared to flee if the military did follow Guaidó’s request, saying he had a plane ready to take him to Cuba. Maduro’s Administration denies these claims. These comments are the most recent mention of the United States’ “threatening drumbeat” to overthrow the Maduro regime, which includes talks of military intervention. The increasingly violent protests and suppression combined with threats of foreign intervention and seemingly everlasting economic suffering puts Venezuela in a dire situation, with political violence seeming more likely by the moment.

—

Megan Rodgers, who contributed to the Burma section of this brief, is a student at The University of Arkansas. Megan serves on STAND’s Burma and Democratic Republic of Congo Action Committees.

Grace Harris, who contributed to the Sudan section of this brief, is a sophomore at Tampa Preparatory School in Florida, where she serves as the president of her STAND chapter. Grace serves on STAND national’s Sudan and Yemen Action Committees.

Casey Bush, who contributed to the DRC section of this brief, is a graduate student at Clark University and one of STAND’s Student Co-Directors. She is a member of all of STAND’s Action Committees.

Grace Fernandes, who contributed to the Syria section of this brief, is a junior at Simmons University and one of STAND’s Student Co-Directors. She leads STAND’s Indigenous Peoples Action Committee and works with Simmons Amnesty International, an affiliate of STAND.

Caroline Mendoza, who contributed to the Sudan and South Sudan section of this brief, is a junior at Cerritos High School in California, and serves on the STAND Managing Committee. She is a member of the Burma and Yemen Action Committees.

Zachary Gossett, who contributed to the Venezuela section of this brief, is a sophomore at Butler University and a member of STAND’s Managing Committee. He serves on the Indigenous Peoples and Burma Action Committees.

The National League for Democracy (NLD) has confirmed it will contest the upcoming elections despite their leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, remaining banned from becoming President.  Suu Kyi said they have a plan to deal with the problem, and the NLD has said it will select an NLD member to run for President.  Majority leader of the US Senate Mitch McConnell has criticized Burma’s government for keeping the Constitutional provision barring Suu Kyi from becoming President, and has said that Burma should not receive trade benefits until after the election.

Religious freedom in Burma may take a blow if the President signs a bill on interfaith marriage into law.  Parliament passed a bill that would require Buddhist women to get approval from local authorities to marry a man of another faith.  The bill is strongly back by the Buddhist nationalist organization Ma Ba Tha.  In Rakhine State, few Rohingya have taken the new green cards on offer by the Burmese government, as they must identify themselves as Bengali in order to get the card.  Only 1,600 Rohingya have applied for green cards, which replace the 400,000 white cards that the government revoked earlier this year.

Rebels from the Democratic Karen Benevolence Army (DKBA) continues to fight the Burmese military in a battle over the Asia Highway in Karen State.  At least four DKBA soldiers and seven Burmese army soldiers have been killed in the clashes.  There was also shelling in Shan State, where fighting between the Kachin Independence Army and the Burmese Army killed one person and hundreds of civilians were forced to flee.

Central African Republic (CAR)

The Central African transition government has controversially decided to exclude refugees from the upcoming election.  More than 460,000 people who fled to neighboring countries will be unable to vote.  As refugees are disproportionately Muslim, Muslims will have less influence in the election.  Various UN agencies have expressed their concern about the decision.

French Foreign Affairs Minister Laurent Fabius visited CAR this week.  His visit was designed to show support for transitional President Catherine Samba-Panza and an eight million euro budgetary aid agreement, much of which will go to support the upcoming elections.  However, it also drew a great deal of attention to the alleged child sexual abuse committed by French peacekeepers in CAR.

MINUSCA, the UN peacekeeping force in the Central African Republic, will receive 750 new troops after the Republic of the Congo sent the soldiers to replace soldiers that had served for over a year.  However, in an unrelated situation, 20 peacekeepers will be sent home for excessive use of force in an incident that killed two people.

In Bangui, unidentified gunmen attacked Central African police, wounding two officers.  The attack came several days after unidentified gunmen attacked the state radio station.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

The DRC is stepping up the process of decoupage, which will separate the country’s 11 provinces into 26 provinces.  Nine new provinces were implemented in the last week.  The DRC’s government has announced that gubernatorial elections for the new provinces will take place between July 27th and 31st.

Six people were abducted in Orientale Province in an attack believed to be committed by the LRA.  Also, in Walikale territory in North Kivu, the APCLS kidnapped ten people.  In response to this type of attack, citizens in Walikale have organized self-defense militias, citing lack of protection from police and military.  In Ituri, the Ituri Patriotic Resistance Force attacked a camp for displaced people.  One rebel leader seems unlikely to lead further attacks.  Jamil Mukulu of the Ugandan Islamist group Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) was extradited to Uganda from Tanzania to face trial.

The European Union has pressured the Congolese government to release two civil society activists who have been held since their arrest in March.  Government spokesman Lambert Mende rejected the EU’s recommendation as meddling in the internal affairs of a sovereign country.

South Sudan

The South Sudanese government has made clear its displeasure with the UN’s recent actions.  In response to the UN’s report that found the South Sudanese army guilty of human rights abuses, South Sudan has expelled one UN official and may expel another.  President Kiir also criticized the imposition of sanctions on three South Sudanese commanders.  UN secretary-General has continued his efforts, however, and called on South Sudanese leaders to find a political solution and stop the violence.  The executive director of the South Sudan Human Right Society for Advocacy has also called on President Kiir to stop the violence.

Local violence has continued at a large scale in Lakes state.  Nine people were killed in clashes between the Panyon and Dhiei clans.  Then, 27 people were killed in a raid on Pappul cattle camp, including a number of civilians.

The rising price of water is putting more people at risk of cholera as people will have less access to clean water.  Since June, there have been 790 cases of cholera and 33 people have died in the cholera outbreak that originated in a displaced person’s camp in Juba.

Sudan

Hassan al-Turabi, leader of the Popular Congress Party (PCP), said that he was confident that Sudan’s Islamists would reunite within the next year.  It seems unlikely Sudan’s Islamists all agree, but Turabi did meet with President Omar al-Bashir this week.  The two had considered the other an enemy since Turabi split from the National Congress Party in 1999 to form the PCP, but relations between the two have thawed in the last year.

Opposition parties in the national dialogue have held talks with opposition parties that have not yet joined the dialogue in an attempt to convince them to join.  However, talks between the Sudanese government and the SPLM-N are not going well, and the Sudanese government has accused the SPLM-N of having unrealistic demands and being at fault for the failure of peace talks.

President Omar al-Bashir visited Saudi Arabia to discuss building closer ties between the countries with the Saudi King.  This marks a shift in Sudan’s alliances after Sudan distanced itself from Iran earlier this year.  President al-Bashir also completed the umrah while on the trip.

Twelve Sudanese women in Khartoum faced 40 lashes after they were arrested for wearing trousers.  The women were Christian and originally from the Nuba Mountains, and while three were not sentenced to flogging, the possibility remains for the nine other women.

Syria

ISIS and the Syrian military engaged in heavy fighting around the city of Palmyra.  Syrian forces closed in on the city and killed over 30 ISIS fighters, but ISIS then captured over 100 Syrian soldiers in an ambush.  The Assad regime did have a victory in Zabadani, where Hezbollah and Syrian army forces took the main entrance to the city, which is close to the border to Lebanon.

The US has continued launching heavy airstrikes against ISIS, with 16 in Syria this past weekend.  Two senior leaders of ISIS were killed in the attacks.

The conflict continues to have huge costs on Syrian civilians.  In Aleppo, a drought is causing a water shortage for civilians, who also struggle to access water due to restricted movement caused by fighting and attacks on water sources.  Meanwhile, in response to the shortage of funds for Syrian refugees, Nobel Peace Prize winner Malala Yousafzai has called world leaders “quite stingy.”

Emerging Conflicts: Burundi

Burundi remains on the brink as controversy over President Pierre Nkurunziza’s run for a third term continues.  Nkurunziza decided to run despite strong opposition and doubts over the constitutionality of his decision.  In light of the ongoing unrest, presidential elections have been pushed back from their originally scheduled date of July 15th to July 21st.  Parliamentary elections recently took place and were won by Nkurunziza’s CNDD-FDD party, but the elections were marred by an opposition boycott and strong doubts over their legitimacy.  Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has been called in to mediate between the CNDD-FDD and the opposition.

There also seems to have been an upsurge in violence.  Burundi’s military announced that it had killed 31 opposition rebels and captured 170 in the country’s north.  The exact allegiances and identity of the rebels remains unconfirmed.  There have also been a number of grenade attacks in the capital city, Bujumbura.  However, there may be hope in the disarmament of the CNDD-FDD’s youth wing, the Imbonerakure.  The group has long been considered a dangerous potential source of violence, but Ugandan President Museveni said that they had been disarmed.  This would be welcome news, but it does confirm that the Imbonerakure were armed and doubts remain about the extent of their disarmament.

The election has been set for November 8th.  It is Burma’s first open general election in 25 years.  The incumbent Union Solidarity and Democracy Party, led by President Thein Sein, will be contested by the National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi.  Parliament recently voted against removing a Constitutional clause that bars her from becoming President, but despite this Aung San Suu Kyi has continued campaigning.

Negotiations between the Burmese government and ethnic rebels in Thailand made some progress, with chief peace negotiator Aung Min saying it was possible a deal could be struck.  The parties will meet again in a few weeks.  The Burmese government also may have quite a few more years of Thein Sein as President, as he has said he will consider a second term.

The military has engaged in multiple clashes.  In Karen State, government troops fought members of the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army, while in Shan State unknown rebels attacked an army outpost.  In Rangoon, military MPs have argued strongly against a proposed constitutional amendment that would allow state parliaments to choose chief ministers.  Efforts to reduce military power also took a hit as five student leaders who led protests against the military influence in Parliament were arrested.  In Rakhine State, the military continues to use Rohingya in forced labor.  While a UN Human Rights Council resolution sought to bring attention to this and other human rights abuses of Rohingya, the Burmese government has rejected the proposal.

Central African Republic (CAR)

Unidentified gunmen unsuccessfully attempted to take over CAR’s main radio station.  In the middle of the night, a dozen men surrounded the station, scaled the fence, and broke into the radio station.  However, they were repelled by security forces.  It is believed they wanted to take over the radio station to make a political statement over radio, but it is unknown what political beliefs they held.

French investigators have left for the Central African Republic, where they will meet with children accusing French peacekeepers of sexual abuse.  Over a dozen French peacekeepers are being investigated for allegations of sexually abusing children in exchange for food in early 2014.  French authorities were informed of the abuse in July 2014, but the investigation is still in progress.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

The United States has appointed Tom Perriello as its new Special Envoy to the Great Lakes Region of Africa.  He succeeds Russ Feingold, who left the position in February.  Perriello does not have experience in the region, but he has worked on transitional justice projects in Sierra Leone, Afghanistan, Kosovo, and Darfur.  He was a Democratic representative in the House from 2008 to 2010.

In Ituri, the Ituri Patriotic Resistance Force (FPRI) killed a woman and a 13-year-old girl and raped three others.  This follows another attack from the militia last Tuesday.  In Goma, two people were killed and multiple others wounded in a series of attempted robberies by bandits, who have since been captured.

Government spokesperson Lambert Mende has suggested that the government of the DRC would be open to MONUSCO and FARDC working together in operations against the FDLR.  Efforts broke down earlier this year after MONUSCO objected to the inclusion of several generals with records of human rights abuses in FARDC forces.  The UN has called for a greater police presence in the DRC.  At the moment, there is only one police officer for every 700 people, and they are located disproportionately in urban areas.

South Sudan

Government forces and rebels each had multiple ups and downs this week.  The South Sudanese army reclaimed Malakal, the strategically important capital of Upper Nile state, a week after losing it to rebels.  Upper Nile state is rich in oil, but in Unity state, rebels allied with Riek Machar regained control of Tharjath oil field.  In Northern Bahr el Ghazal, rebels took over an administrative headquarters, only to leave shortly afterwards.  In Lakes state, there was communal violence unrelated to the conflict between Kiir and Machar, killing 15 people.

One thing the South Sudanese government and rebels can agree on this week is their unhappiness with the actions of the UN.  A UN report accused the SPLA of, among other human rights abuses, raping and burning girls in Unity state.  However, the South Sudanese embassy in Kenya accused the UN of bias, while Justice Minister Paulino Wanawila also rejected the allegations.  Rebel General James Koang has objected to the sanctions placed upon him by the UN Security Council, calling instead for justice and saying the sanctions will not affect him or the war.

Newly released figures show that 730,000 South Sudanese have fled to other countries since the civil war began, with Ethiopia the most frequent destination.  Over 150,000 people are sheltering in UN bases.  However, the war shows few signs of ending.  Riek Machar has said the war will last as long as Kiir is President and called on him to resign immediately.  There may be some promise in the G10, as the group of former political detainees has said that military action will not resolve the conflict and that they are trying to bridge differences between the two parties.

Sudan

US Special Envoy to Sudan Donald Booth will visit the country by the end of July.  He will discuss normalizing relations between the countries and ending sanctions on Sudan.  Sudanese Foreign Minister Ibrahim Ghandour has said he hopes the talks are based on a new approach as compared to past talks.  Ghandour also met with the African Union Special Envoy to Sudan to discuss the peace talks.

The ruling National Congress Party has said that it met with unnamed opposition parties in an attempt to convince them to participate in the national dialogue.  However, rebels in the SPLM

-N have reiterated their desire for a new peace process, saying the current one only suits the interests of the Sudanese government.

The Sudanese government will deploy a joint police and army force to East Darfur.  They said that recent tribal violence prompted the force, which will attempt to restore security to the area.

Syria

Syrian rebels led by al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra battled government forces in Aleppo, which is held by the Assad regime.  Rebels initially made advances and took important positions, but since have been fought back.  ISIS took back Ain Issa after several weeks of Kurdish control, only to lose it back several days later.  The town is 30 miles from ISIS’s capital, Raqqa.

The US-led coalition launched heavy strikes on Raqqa over the weekend, killing ten ISIS fighters.  However, there are also reports that eight civilians were killed in the strikes.  This week President Obama said that the US would step up its campaign against ISIS and its support to moderate rebels.  It was revealed later this week that the US’s “train and equip” program, at a cost of $500 million, has only trained 60 rebels.  The process has been slowed by attempts to vet rebels before permitting them to join the program, but defense officials maintain the program will be expanded to meet their targets.

The Syrian government has taken a $1 billion loan from ally Iran.  Iran has already loaned significant funds from Iran, as the Syrian government’s budget and economy has been hard hit by the conflict.  They aren’t the only ones suffering from the conflict, and new figures show that 4 million Syrians are refugees, making it the largest refugee crisis in 25 years.

Emerging Conflicts: El Salvador

El Salvador has been wracked by extensive violence as gangs fight among themselves and with police or other government forces.  The government lacks control of much of the country, with many areas dominated by gangs, particularly the Barrio 18 and MS-13 gangs.  The government had been in a truce with gangs for a year, with imprisoned gang members transferred to lower-security prisons and less violence between the parties.  However, the Salvadoran government broke the truce and launched a crackdown on gangs.  The crackdown has in many ways backfired, as there have been few victories against the gangs and the gangs have responded by stepping up violence.  The government has announced plans to further escalate the fight against the gangs, but there also might be hope through the promise of civilian self-protection strategies.

677 murders took place in June, 641 in May, and there have been over 3,000 in 2015.  This is a 55% increase in murders from the same period last year and is El Salvador’s worst violence since the civil war.  More civilians were killed in May in El Salvador than in ISIS-controlled Iraq.  Salvadoran civilians face constant risks.  They can be murdered for going into territory of a different gang than the one that controls their home neighborhood, having witnessed a crime, or just being suspected of assisting a rival gang or the police.  As many as 280,000 people have been internally displaced by the violence, and in lack of safe options, many have also attempted to escape to the US.

Burma deported 37 Rohingya to Bangladesh.  The people were found by the Burmese navy on a boat in the Bay of Bengal in May in an attempt to migrate.  Those who the Burmese authorities identified as Bangladeshi have been deported, while the others remain in makeshift camps.  In a separate incident, when Aung San Suu Kyi was asked this week whether Rohingya should be given citizenship, she did not give a clear answer, instead saying that the matter should be addressed “very, very carefully.”  At her 70th birthday celebration, she called on her National League of Democracy (NLD) supporters to prepare for a landslide victory in this year’s election.  However, their chances could be hampered by irregular voting lists, which the NLD claimed were frequently erroneous and contained errors in 30 to 80% of names in Rangoon Division.  The NLD will likely not get much support from Ma Ba Tha, and a prominent monk told the Buddhist nationalist organization to vote for the incumbent government rather than the opposition NLD.  At the same conference, Ma Ba Tha called for Muslim girls to be banned from wearing headscarves in schools.

Eight representatives of Burma’s ethnic minorities met with Chinese officials, following in the footsteps of Aung San Suu Kyi’s visit to China last week.  In Shan State, ethnic armed group The Restoration Council of Shan State was caught in controversy, where a prominent member of the Ta’ang National Party accused the armed group of abducting his party’s president and secretary.

A senior military MP has made clear his opposition to a change to constitutional Article 436.  The NLD has been trying to change the provision that requires a 75% vote to pass legislation.  As unelected military MPs are given 25% of seats, it essentially gives the military a veto.  Brigadier General Tin San Niang said Burma did not have enough experience with democracy to remove the provision.

Amnesty International has released a report on the harassment and limitations Burmese journalists face.  Although Burma removed many long-standing restrictions on journalists in 2012, journalist still operate in a climate of fear.  Burma’s government has dismissed the claims.

Central African Republic (CAR)

The controversy over Anders’ Kompass decision to send French authorities a report on French peacekeeper sex abuse in CAR continues.  It has created an internal split in the UN, with High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad al Hussein seeing the disclosure as a leak while many see Kompass as a whistleblower.  The UN has hired an external panel to investigate the allegations.  There was also a new case of peacekeeper sex abuse that emerged this week.

CAR has scheduled the electoral calendar for this year.  A census will take place between June 27th and July 27th, a referendum on the new constitution will take place on October 4th, Presidential and Parliamentary elections will occur on October 18th, and if a second round of elections is needed it will take place on November 22nd.  The elections will require a budget of $34.6 million, but only about half of that has already been funded.  Additionally, the National Elections Observatory has called for reform in the electoral code to improve the elections.

DR Congo (DRC)

Clashes took place in North Kivu with Congolese soldiers facing off against Mai Mai and FDLR combatants.  There do not appear to have been heavy casualties.  There was also fighting in Garamba National Park, where poachers killed two soldiers and one ranger in an ambush.  The poachers are believed to be from South Sudan, which borders the park.  In Western DRC, there was a riot at a camp for ex-militants.  The camp houses over 800 surrendered militants from multiple groups.  After a rumor started that a guard had stolen $30,000 intended for rations at the camp, a riot broke out and the militants demanded to be set free and allowed to return home.

The preparations for the upcoming elections have been disrupted by duplicates on a number of electoral lists for provincial elections.  Candidates have asked for ten days to correct the problems.

The McCain Institute has released rare polling data from North Kivu.  The poll found people had little trust in the electoral commission and 77% of people opposed changing the constitution to allow a third term for Joseph Kabila.  The Congolese military and police were given 69% and 57% approval ratings, respectively, while UN peacekeepers only got a 21% approval rating.  Large majorities approved of measures to increase female representatives in government.

South Sudan

The SPLM-IO has said it remains committed to the Arusha process but said the talks should not be in Juba.  Meanwhile, Riek Machar met with Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta in Nairobi.  Also, Pagan Amul has been reinstated as SPLM Secretary-General.  The SPLM convened a special meeting after the appointment.

The South Sudanese government has announced that it plans to resume oil production in Unity state.  Oil production has been stopped for over a year because of instability resulting from the war.  The UN had criticism for the South Sudanese government, saying the SPLM has consistently failed to cooperate with the UN and not given proper access to UN workers in the country.  In Western Bahr el Ghazal state, the government arrested a journalist without explanation before releasing him the next day.

Four women and one man were injured in a shooting at an IDP camp in Juba.  While the perpetrators are not confirmed, residents of the camp accused government soldiers.  The SPLM-IO also had accusations for the SPLM, claiming they had restarted fighting in Jonglei state in violation of the cessation of hostilities agreement.

Sudan

The continuation of UNAMID remains in question.  Its mandate has been extended for a year by the African Union, although an exit strategy remains in place.  However, the UN Security Council still must approve the measure for it to take effect, but that vote has been postponed until next week.  The Sudanese government had called for the mandate not to be renewed while the United States insisted that it should be.  UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon also called for the renewal of the mandate.

President Omar al-Bashir announced Sudan would conduct a census in 2018, the country’s first since the succession of South Sudan.  In another announcement, he said that the army had obtained weapons that made it a “large and sophisticated deterrent force.”  The Sudanese government also criticized the United States for its failure to remove Sudan from the state sponsors of terrorism list, citing “double standards.”

The leader of the Reform Now Movement, Ghazi Salah al-Din Attabani, has criticized the government’s conduct during peace negotiations.  He warned that if dialogue did not succeed Sudan would have a major security problem.

Syria

Multiple armed groups have engaged in heavy fighting over the last week.  Supported by US airstrikes, the Kurdish YPG made large advances into ISIS territory, capturing a military base and the town Ain Issa.  The advance placed themselves within 50 km of ISIS’s capital, Raqqa, but Kurdish forces have said they do not intend to march on Raqqa.  Turkey, an opponent of the YPG, was concerned with their advance and accused the YPG of ethnic cleansing.  However, ISIS responded by attacking the important Kurdish-held city Kobani as well as Assad-held areas in Hasakah.  In Deraa, an alliance of rebels fought government forces in an attempt to take the city.

ISIS has moved to stop oil flows to areas controlled by other forces.  As ISIS controls almost all of Syria’s oil, civilians are fearful that hospitals may not be able to function and that there will be massive food shortages.  The think tank Chatham House released a report detailing the extent of Syria’s economic collapse as a result of the war, and said that it could weaken the Assad regime.  The war has also led to increased class divisions, with middle and upper classes tending to support Assad while lower classes support the rebels.  The Assad regime also still has support from Russia, and President Putin reaffirmed his position that Assad should stay in power.

The UN released a report documenting attacks on civilians from the Assad government and rebels, noting that the Assad government has bombed Aleppo daily for the last year.  The Assad government has also struck ten medical facilities with barrel bombs since May.  Over 70 countries condemned the Assad government for their human rights abuses.

Emerging Conflicts: Iraq

Conflict continues to rage in Iraq as ISIS conducted a number of attacks in the last week.  Northeast of Fallujah ISIS attacked Iraqi army forces and then lured them into an ambush, killing 14.  In western Anbar province, rockets killed nine after hitting a number of civilian installations, while six were killed after a car bomb exploded in Baghdad.  In Diyala province, 14 people were killed when an ISIS suicide bomber attacked a meeting of Sunni tribal leaders.

Four years after exiting Iraq, NATO plans to renew their involvement in the conflict.  Details are not completely determined yet, but it seems likely that NATO will train Iraqi troops.  The WHO, however, may be forced to shut down their network of 77 clinics in the country due to poor funding and a lack of security.  Meanwhile, US airstrikes continue, one of which killed ISIS commander and suspect in the Benghazi attack, Ali Awni al-Harzi.  Another airstrike may have caused a number of civilian casualties, and the Pentagon has launched an investigation into the strike.

The Burmese government has signed a draft ceasefire agreement with the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT). The NCCT is a group representing 16 different armed groups in Burma and has been in talks with the Burmese government for months. Fighting between the Burmese Army and Kachin Independence Army (KIA) regularly interrupted the talks. The draft agreement was later called “a historic and significant achievement” by the United Nations. A nationwide ceasefire has been one of President Thein Sein’s most important and difficult goal since being elected in 2011.

On Thursday, Beijing announced that Burma had apologized and accepted responsibility for bombing the Chinese province of Yunnan last month. Five people were reportedly killed as fighting between the Burmese Army and a group called the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army moved across the border to China.

Central African Republic (CAR)

The border between the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of the Congo has been a hotbed of activity in recent months. Since the arrest of Dominic Ongwen, a top commander in the Lord’s Resistance Army, the LRA has intensified its attacks on villages across the border. On March 21, the LRA kidnapped 15 Congolese refugees and 1 Congolese national and held them for several days before releasing 13 of them. The LRA, a militant group best known for being the subject of “Kony 2012” has been the subject of international attention for its widespread atrocities and use of child soldiers. The kidnappings have inflamed relations between CAR and the DRC.

In another incident, residents in eastern Cameroon reportedly killed a number of suspected fighters from CAR who had attempted a large-scale kidnapping. This followed an attack earlier in the month, when fighters from CAR had kidnapped 16 people near the border. Some suspect that the attack was launched by a rebel group known as the Democratic Front of the Central African People (FDPC), which was at one point a part of the Seleka militia that overthrew the national government in March 2013. The leader of the FDPC was arrested in Cameroon in 2013, and the FDPC retaliated by abducting 26 people. While Cameroon eventually released their leader, tensions were never fully resolved.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

On March 26, the UN Security Council (UNSC) renewed MONUSCO’s mandate. UNSC Resolution 2211 (2015) authorizes MONUSCO to remain in eastern Congo through March of 2016. The new resolution cuts the mission’s troop strength by 2,000 peacekeepers, while retaining an existing 21,000 troop maximum that allows the UN to send additional troops in response to security concerns. Tension remains between the Kabila administration and MONUSCO, and Kabila continues to call for an immediate troop drawdown of 6,000 peacekeepers and to request an explicit timetable for the UN’s departure from the DRC. Speaking for the administration, DRC information minister Lambert Mende said, “no one should come here within the bureaucracy of the UN to transform our country into a colony.” Civil society endorsement of the mandate renewal remains far more positive, however, suggesting that the administration’s views may not represent those of the nation.

National elections in 2016 may prove a crucial test case for the efficacy of Western electoral aid in promoting democracy abroad. On Tuesday, March 31, President Barack Obama called Congolese President Joseph Kabila to express concern over the head of state’s refusal to explicitly refute suspicions that he may seek an illegal third term in 2016. With the departure of U.S. Special Envoy to the Great Lakes Region Russ Feingold in late February, Western influence in the DRC appears at a crossroads. In response to the detention of a U.S. diplomat earlier this month, the Kabila administration responded that the Congo was not a “sub-prefecture of the United States.” The diplomat has since been released. Meanwhile, activists of the pro-democracy Filimbi movement from Congo, Senegal, and Burkina Faso remain in government custody.

MONUSCO Mission Chief Martin Kobler maintains that the Congolese army’s (FARDC) counter-FDLR operations stand to achieve only limited success in the absence of UN support. Civil society representatives from North Kivu met with Kobler in late March to convey concerns regarding the negative impact that the FARDC offensive continues to impose on Congolese civilians, and to ask the mission to work with Congolese authorities to mitigate these risks. While the FARDC claims success in neutralizing nearly 200 FDLR rebels and driving the force out of twelve towns in the Kivus, residents in North and South Kivu note that the militia retains effective governance over a non-negligible number of towns and villages in the region.

Syria

During an official visit to Damascus, Iraqi Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to discuss increased coordination between the two countries in opposition to Islamic State forces. The current Iraqi government is among the few Arab countries that have continued to voice support for Assad, in spite of the suspension of Syria’s membership from the Arab League in 2011. Although the United States and Iraq coordinate militarily in opposition to the Islamic State, the United States refuses to ally itself with the Syrian regime in this capacity, on account of Assad’s ongoing actions in the Syrian Civil War.

This week, a United States warplane airdropped approximately 60,000 anti-ISIS propaganda leaflets over Raqqa, the de facto capital of ISIS. The comic-like flyers graphically depict potential recruits lining up in an ISIS recruitment office, only to be placed into a meat grinder. According to Pentagon Spokesman Colonel Steve Warren, the leaflets are intended to discourage people from joining ISIS because, “It’s not beneficial to your health.”

With the Syrian conflict entering its fifth year, the surge in refugees in neighboring countries has been matched by a massive jump in the number of Syrians seeking asylum. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 150,000 Syrians applied for asylum last year, marking a 166 percent increase in Syrian applications since 2013. Syrians alone comprise approximately one-fifth of all asylum seekers.

Chief of the prominent Nusra Front opposition group, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, is calling for greater unity among different Muslim factions in the Syrian city of Idlib, as well as the establishment of a religious court to preside over local issues and restore legal order to the city. In November, the Nusra Front gained control of Idlib by ousting several Western-backed Syrian opposition groups. Al-Jolani has categorically rejected Western support in the fight against ISIS and the Assad regime.

Emerging Conflicts: Yemen

Yemen is in disarray and civilians continue to suffer heavy costs. The Houthis, a primarily northern Shi’ite rebellion, took over the capital, Sana’a, in January. President Abdu Rabu Mansur Hadi fled with his government to the southern city of Aden, one of the government’s last remaining areas of control. However, the Houthis are now fighting to take over Aden as well. President Hadi has fled to Saudi Arabia and heavy fighting continues throughout the city.

The Houthis and Iran have been developing a loose alliance. The Houthi rebellion has also been bolstered by support from the former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was forced from office after a series of protests in 2012. Saleh, formerly an opponent of the Houthis, has joined their attempt to remove President Hadi from power, although it is unclear whether this alliance will last. Saudi Arabia remains a staunch ally of the Hadi government, and fears increased Shia and Iranian power in the region. On March 25, Saudi Arabia began leading airstrikes against the Houthis, and may even launch a ground invasion in the future. The United States, also a supporter of the Hadi government, joined the coalition along with Egypt, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Bahrain, Jordan, and Sudan. However, the conflict between the Houthis and the Hadi government is not the only conflict in Yemen. A southern separatist movement and a strong al-Qaeda branch, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) both remain active in Yemen.

The conflict is causing massive human costs for Yemeni civilians. The economy is already one of the poorest in the region and economic activity has been heavily disrupted by the fighting. On March 21, a group claiming to be a Yemeni branch of the Islamic State sent suicide bombers into mosques in Sana’a, killing 142 people. UN Humanitarian Chief Valerie Amos estimates that 519 people have been killed in the last two weeks. Heavy fighting in the densely populated cities of Sana’a and Aden has been especially dangerous.

Saudi airstrikes are also incurring massive civilian casualties. On March 30, 29 people were killed when an airstrike hit a camp for internally displaced persons. On March 31, 6 civilians, including four children, were burned to death when an airstrike hit a fuel depot. The next day, 27 people were killed after a strike hit a dairy factory. Humanitarian aid agencies have also struggled to get support into the country due to a Saudi-led blockade. Heightened security risks have put further pressure on the distribution of humanitarian aid, as a Red Crescent worker was recently shot and killed.

The International Crisis Group has called for an immediate ceasefire and a diplomatic solution to the conflict. The Houthis recently expressed their openness to talks, provided that the Saudi-led coalition halts its bombing campaign and that negotiations are conducted by “non-aggressive” parties.

Last week, a United Nations official claimed that Burma is showing signs that it is reversing its much-praised democratic reforms at an accelerating rate. In a report submitted to the United Nations Human Rights council last month, Yanghee Lee, the special rapporteur on Myanmar, cited “a growing atmosphere of fear, distrust and hostility,” and urged the government to “reverse the current slide towards extreme nationalism, religious hatred and conflict.”

In addition, three people (two from Burma and one from New Zealand) have been sentenced to two years in prison for posting an image on Facebook of the Buddha wearing headphones to promote an event. Court officials claimed the image violated the country’s religion act, which prohibits insulting, damaging, or destroying religion.

Looking ahead, Burma is set to hold additional peace talks next week between the Burmese government and the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team, or NCCT. However, many are skeptical about the upcoming talks as sporadic fighting between the Burmese Army and Kachin Independence Army and a variety of smaller ethnic rebel militias has occurred over the past few weeks.

DRC

On 15 March, the Congolese government arrested nearly 30 activists in the capital Kinshasa. Two days later, on 17 March, authorities arrested at least ten peaceful protesters in Goma, North Kivu, as the demonstrators called for the release of the Kinshasa 30. The arrests on 15 and 17 March also included a U.S. diplomat, Belgian journalists, and youth leaders from Senegal and Burkina Faso. The 15 March demonstrations followed a press conference by the pro-democracy youth movement Filimbi. The U.S. embassy provided support for the conference, intended to promote civic engagement among youth. Congolese information Minister Lambert Mende claims that the activists from Senegal and Burkina Faso were arrested for “promoting violence.” On 19 March, authorities released seven musicians arrested during the pro-democracy demonstration, and Mende claims that others will be released “very soon.”

In early March, a coalition of opposition activists visited Washington, D.C. to voice concerns regarding their perceptions of Congolese President Joseph Kabila’s refusal to cede power in 2016. The visiting delegation also explained that the Congolese electoral commission’s (CENI’s) 1.5 billion USD budget stands to impose unnecessary delays on the electoral process. Tensions between opposition parties and Kabila’s ruling coalition remain high: on 5 March, the leaders of seven parties sent a letter to the President stating that January’s #Telema protests signaled a break between the ruling majority and the will of the Congolese people.

Despite a withdrawal of United Nations support, the Congolese military (FARDC) continues to gain ground against FDLR rebels in eastern Congo. In late January, the FARDC launched an offensive against the rebels, rumored to number around 1,400 in DRC’s eastern provinces. The UN withdrew support from the operation in response to the government’s appointment of two generals accused of human rights violations as commanders of the offensive. On 9 March, FARDC captured a key rebel base in Virunga national park, killing 62 FDLR militants and injuring over 100. The mandate for the UN peacekeeping force in eastern Congo, MONUSCO, expires at the end of this month.

Syria

Both Syrian rebel groups and the Assad regime have accused each other of employing chemical weapons in attacks. The United Nations Security Council has accepted a United States draft resolution calling for stronger reinforcement against the use of chemical weapons in Syria, referring to a series of chlorine gas attacks carried out from April to August of 2013. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons has yet to identify the party responsible for these chlorine attacks, President Assad denies the regime’s use of chemical weapons. However, in a recent statement, U.S. Permanent Ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power, strongly suggested that the Assad regime is behind the chemical attacks.

The commander of Syria’s Nusra Front rebel group, Abu Hammam al-Shami, was killed in an air strike, raising questions about the future of the group’s leadership. While the Syrian military claims responsibility for the attack, early reports pointed to a US-led coalition as responsible for the strike.

In northeast Syria, the U.S.-backed Kurdish YPG militia and Islamic State engaged in combat after ISIS fighters attacked the Kurds using tanks and other artillery. In response, the U.S. led coalition successfully carried out air strikes at night against ISIS bases near the Turkish border. The number of casualties on either side of the fighting has yet to be confirmed.

As the conflict in Syria marked its fourth year since the start of the civil war, the United States Department of State announced it would contribute $70 million to supporting and training opposition forces to the Syrian regime, totaling its contributions at about $400 million since the start of the revolution.

Emerging Conflicts: Burundi

Controversy over this June’s presidential elections has raised fears of violence in Burundi.  The opposition believes that since the Constitution only allows presidents to serve two terms, and as President Pierre Nkurunziza has served two terms, he cannot run again. While Nkurunziza has not officially declared he will run again, he says that the two terms specified in the Constitution only count terms when the President was elected. As he was appointed by Parliament for his first term, he believes that he is eligible to run again.

The opposition party, the Forces for National Liberation (FNL), has expressed their clear opposition to a third term Nkurunziza. The Roman Catholic Church, the religion practiced by two-thirds of people in Burundi, has also stated that the Constitution forbids Nkurunziza to run again. Tanzania, a key peace mediator in Burundi, has warned of violence if Nkurunziza attempts to gain a third term. During a visit to the country, US Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power called Nkurunziza’s actions “extremely divisive” and “very destabilizing.” However, many analysts believe that the opposition could win the election even if Nkurunziza runs, and the FNL has confirmed that they will not boycott the elections as they did in 2010. There have also been splits in the ruling CNDD-FDD party. Nkurunziza’s intelligence chief and two deputies wrote to him asking him not to run again, and he responded by firing them. There is no clear successor to Nkurunziza within the CNDD-FDD.

Small cases of violence have already begun. The wife of FNL leader Augustin Rwasa was shot and wounded on 16 March. Rwasa claimed that it was an assassination attempt organized by Nkurunziza. Some fear that Nkurunziza has been arming and training the youth wing of his party, the Imbonerakure, in the neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Nine soldiers from the Burmese Army and one from the Ta’and National Liberation Army or the TNLA] have died during clashes in Burma’s northern Shan State. The source of this clash is uncertain. The TNLA and Kachin Independence Army (KIA) are the only two ethnic militias yet to sign a ceasefire agreement with the Burmese government. Talks were scheduled for February 12, but have since been postponed until later this month.

In their annual report on human rights, Human Rights Watch said that, “After two years of steady if uneven progress, Burma’s human rights situation was a car crash in 2014.” The report cited the country’s ongoing persecution of Muslim Rohingya, backtracking on media freedoms, continuing imprisonment of political prisoners, and maintenance of military personnel in the Parliament. Brad Adam, the Asia director at Human Rights Watch, said, “The army is still calling the shots on major issues, while the government seems confident it has satisfied other countries to keep the aid and investment dollars flowing.”

In addition, a United Nations human rights envoy to Burma was criticized by the Burmese government in response to their recent visit. Burma claimed the visit infringed upon Burma’s sovereignty and further contributed to domestic tensions. Yanghee Lee, the Special Rapporteur on human rights in Burma, claimed she and her team acted in a “constructive manner” and well within their mandate and Burma’s obligations to various human rights treaties.

Burma has officially opened a deep-sea port for a Chinese oil pipeline off the country’s west coast, according the AP. The project is a joint enterprise between two state-run companies, one Burmese and the other Chinese.

Central African Republic (CAR)

An unconditional cease-fire was reached between the Séléka and the Anti-balaka factions on Thursday, 5 February in the Kenyan capital of Nairobi. Former Speaker of the Kenyan National Assembly, Kenneth Marende, served as a mediator between representatives of the two factions. Reportedly, the parties agreed to “a cessation of hostilities, and a DDRR (Disarmament, Demobilization, Rehabilitation, and Reintegration) agreement.” The interim government of President Catherine Samba-Panza was not a party to the dialogue.

While this is a positive step towards peace and reconciliation, there is little to guarantee the success of this most recent cease-fire. Previous cease-fires have been ignored or reneged upon, either by the signatory parties or by the CAR government, which has struggled to assert authority over the peacemaking process. Less than one week ago, the CAR government challenged the legitimacy of a separate peace deal reached by Séléka and Anti-balaka leaders because it occurred outside of the official government-led peace dialogue.

In other news, the scale of weapons proliferation in CAR was highlighted this week by reports of Chinese-made hand grenades selling for less than the cost of a soft drink in Bangui. Locals can purchase grenades on the black market for less than a dollar, a worrying fact due to the potential risk of upsetting the uneasy cease-fire. The ease of access that any civilian with grievances against the Séléka or the Anti-balaka has to weapons in CAR may undermine the success of this and future cease-fire agreements.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

The Congolese parliament convened in January to discuss a proposed electoral law, which would link upcoming 2016 presidential elections to a national census. A census provision, included in Article 8 of the law, would likely delay elections by up to three years and prolong current President Joseph Kabila’s tenure. In response to the proposal, a week of civil society protests and the corresponding law enforcement crackdown left 20 to 40 demonstrators dead. In the end, parliament rejected Article 8, exposing division in the political coalition of President Joseph Kabila. Opposition activists view the rejection of Article 8 as a partial victory. They are now calling for the Congolese electoral commission (CENI) to release an explicit timetable for the upcoming elections. In a press statement on 5 February, Congolese Information Minister Lambert Mende announced that Kabila intends to step down after his term ends in 2016.

On 29 January, President Kabila announced the beginning of Congolese military (FARDC) operations against the FDLR, a rebel militia in eastern Congo with an estimated 1,400-2,000 remaining combatants. Kabila’s statement came as a surprise to UN officials, who threatened to withdraw support from the offensive after the DRC government appointed two generals accused of mass rape and summary executions as commanders of the operation. DRC information minister Lambert Mende stated on 5 February that the FARDC plans to move forward with military operations while retaining the accused, Generals Bruno Mandevu and Sikabwe Fall, as commanders. The FDLR expressed a commitment to disarmament once more on 30 January, while the U.S. Department of State expressed support for the offensive, provided that operations are “conducted in a way that protects and minimizes the impact on civilians, in accordance with international law, including international humanitarian law, and in line with the UN’s human rights due diligence policy.”

Criticism continues to amass in opposition to Dodd-Frank Section 1502, a provision in a U.S. law intended to regulate trade in conflict minerals in the DRC. Critics assert that the law poses harmful consequences for the nearly ten million Congolese civilians who depend on mining to earn a living. Rather than freeing these miners from forced labor and human rights abuses, skeptics maintain that, in the absence of livelihood support programs, the law pushes newly unemployed miners deeper into poverty. Proponents of conflict minerals policy contest that in the months following Dodd-Frank’s enactment, two-thirds of surveyed mines in eastern Congo became certifiably conflict free. They also note a reduction in violence against civilians in many mining communities.

Syria

A British monitor, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), has released a report claiming that so far this year ISIS has killed 50 civilians accused of religious dissent, apostasy, or spying on behalf of enemy fighters. In November, SOHR released a report claiming that ISIS had killed 1,432 captives, civilians, and combatants since the Islamic State declared a caliphate in June 2014.

The Islamic State released a video depicting a man, identified as Jordanian military pilot Moath al-Kasasbeh, being burned alive. ISIS captured al-Kasasbeh in December after he ejected himself from his F-16 fighter jet. The video comes three days after the news of the second decapitation of a Japanese hostage, Kenji Goto, at the hands of ISIS. King Abdullah of Jordan responded to the news of al-Kasasbeh’s murder by cutting short his trip to Washington to return home. In an online video broadcast, King Abdullah voiced his solidarity with the pilot’s family, claiming that the event would “only make us stronger.” A Jordanian army spokesperson said that the nation’s reaction to the murder would “be proportional to this catastrophe that has struck all Jordanians.” Jordan’s immediate response has included the execution of Iraqi prisoner and failed suicide bomber, Sajida al-Rishawi, whose release was demanded by ISIS in exchange for the life of Goto. As King Abdullah met with the pilot’s family, the Jordanian military carried out air strikes against an ISIS stronghold in the Syrian city of Raqqa. Commenting on the air strikes, a Jordanian army statement said it was “just the beginning.”

The Islamic State has retreated from the northern region of Kobani, admitting that repeated US airstrikes were the primary impetus. Kurdish forces, assisted by the US military, celebrated the victory as an important step toward expelling ISIS entirely from the region. In September 2014, ISIS captured over 300 towns in the region, forcing the exodus of 200,000 Kurdish residents. Although a few villages outside Kobani remain under ISIS control, Kurdish officials said that Kurdish YPG fighters have launched an offensive to reclaim the territories.

Emerging Conflicts: Ukraine

Ukraine is at a crossroads after heavy fighting in recent weeks.  Despite the signing of the Minsk agreement, which called for an immediate ceasefire to the fighting, in September, conflict has continued in the Donbass region. Little progress has been made by pro-Russian rebels or Ukrainian forces. Although Russia maintains that it is not sending weapons or troops into Ukraine, the Ukrainian government has repeatedly insisted that this is not the case.

Fighting has escalated in the last few weeks with shelling of civilian areas common. In the last three weeks of January at least 224 civilians were killed, according to the UN High Commissioner on Human Rights. The violence has been most severe in the Donetsk region, much of which has been proclaimed part of the Donetsk People’s Republic. The heaviest fighting in this area has taken place in Debaltseve, which is still controlled by Ukrainian troops but is nearly surrounded by rebel forces. Much of the town has been forced to evacuate. While the Ukrainian army has held its ground so far, it lacks resources and strong leadership and looks likely to lose the town. Additionally, Alexander Zakharchenko, the leader of the rebels, has called to increase his army to 100,000 troops. The city of Donetsk has also seen shelling in recent days.

Foreign nations are weighing decisions that look likely to change the course of the conflict. NATO has announced that it will be creating a 5,000 soldier rapid response force to support Ukraine. While the US has avoided arming Ukrainian forces throughout the conflict, it is considering sending arms. However, the news that President François Hollande of France and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany will be meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin have raised some hope of an upcoming peace plan.

Ukraine has a number of worries besides the most recent fighting. The Ukrainian economy is in collapse and the hryvnia was the worst performing currency in the world last year. The IMF is currently negotiating a bailout with the Ukrainian government. Over 5,000 people have been killed in the conflict since it began in early 2014.

President Thein Sein said in an interview that the plight of the Rohingya is a media fabrication. He denied allegations of human rights violations being committed by government authorities against the stateless Rohingya people in western Burma. He also claimed that international organizations have been conspiring with media outlets to produce such stories.

In other news, Burma’s federal parliament requested a meeting to discuss constitutional reform last Tuesday. The high level talks would be attended by President Thein Sein, speakers Shwe Mann and Khin Aung Myint, opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing, and Arakanese lawmaker Aye Maung (who would represent Burma’s ethnic minorities). The goal of the meeting would be to alleviate the deadlock in amending the 2008 Constitution which grants a great deal of power to the military and has few checks and balances. However, not all proposed participants have agreed to attend the high level talks, as some believe that such a meeting should only be held after the 2020 elections.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

On Friday, November 7, a Congolese military court convicted Jerome Kakwavu, a general in the Congolese army (FARDC) and former rebel fighter, of war crimes. The court sentenced Kakwavu to 10 years in jail. The court found Kakwavu guilty of multiple counts of rape, murder, and torture, and of failing to take necessary measures to prevent human rights abuses by soldiers under his command. The court’s finding makes Kakwavu the highest-ranking Congolese military official to face a war crimes conviction since the start of the First Congo War in 1996.

Reports of an M23 comeback continue to circulate amongst the group’s military and civilian leaders in Rwanda and Uganda. In November 2013, the UN and the Congolese military defeated the March 23 movement. The rebel group occupied the North Kivu provincial capital of Goma for nearly two years prior to the defeat. Dissatisfied with the Congolese government’s refusal to provide amnesty, the M23 reportedly plans to again mount attacks in eastern Congo. The group’s weak current capacity, however, raises doubts about the validity of these claims.

On November 11, Justin Banaloki, military leader of the rebel group Front de Resistance Patriotique d’Ituri (FRPI) and known as “Cobra Mtata,” surrendered to Congolese authorities. Despite the surrender of Banaloki and former FRPI leader Colonel Adirodhu, the whereabouts of other high-ranking FRPI leaders remain speculative. The FRPI militia is based in Ituri province and remains one of the longest-standing armed groups in eastern DRC.

On Monday, November 10, UN peacekeepers opened fire on Congolese civilians in the town of Mbau, shooting and killing one man. The troops opened fire following a dispute over motorcycles blocking the passage of UN vehicles. The next day, activists staged a protest against the actions of the troops. One protester was killed and two others injured during the demonstrations. The dispute follows a period of heightened tension between the UN force in the DRC (MONUSCO) and Congolese civil society, largely resulting from MONUSCO’s inability to stop attacks by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a Ugandan rebel group.

Sudan ** trigger warning: sexual violence **

This week in Sudan, President Al Bashir condemned the UN mission in Darfur as a security burden to Sudan. Despite the continually declining situation in Darfur with the recent report of mass sexual assaults in the region, Bashir has called the UN mission in Darfur, UNAMID, a security burden to Sudan’s own army. Bashir also stated that UNAMID has been falsifying facts, accusing them of being a biased source for information on Darfur.  Bashir also formally asked UNAMID to shut down its human rights offices in the capital, Khartoum.

In a press conference on 30 November, Bashir stated that Sudan is seeking foreign investors for its extractive industries sector, particularly in natural gas. He said that Sudan is interested both in developing natural gas extraction in Sudan and importing gas from other countries. Some analysts speculate that Bashir is hoping that Qatar will invest heavily in this new venture, as the two countries have had increasingly friendly relations.

Additionally, Sudan’s Agricultural Minister, Ibrahim Mahmoud, stated that Sudan is in need of a massive agricultural revolution. He stated that the country needs to start taking drastic measures to change the way their agricultural system works if they are going to be able to feed their population. This would have to include the implementation of modern technology and modern farming methods. The statement came during a World Bank mission on agricultural investment in Sudan.

South Sudan

A recent UN report showed that the number of South Sudanese refugees continues to increase. As the amount of refugees continues to increase, so too does the need for more aid and funding from the international community. Ethiopia, where most of the refugees are now being relocated, is struggling to provide for the South Sudanese refugees on top of its preexisting Eritrean and Somalian refugee populations. The UN warns that without a solid political solution, the number of refugees could rise to 350,000 by the first quarter of 2015. This means that more and more refugees will have to seek shelter across the border in Ethiopia, further straining Ethiopian resources.

Additionally, the United Nations High Commission on Refugees (UNHCR) has begun registering South Sudanese families in Khartoum for relocation. The families are waiting to be relocated to refugee camps in Ethiopia. Meanwhile, funding shortages at the United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP) mean that the refugee camps in nearby Kenya will be receiving 50% less food from the WFP, with similar cuts possible in Uganda in coming months.

Finally, South Sudanese peace activists have called for a national reconciliation process to ensure that any political solution to the civil war is accompanied by lasting social peace between and within communities. While peace-builders agree that the first step priority is to end the fighting, they have emphasized the need to work towards resolving long-standing issues in South Sudan such as lack of accountability for past grievances.

Syria

More than 1.7 Syrian refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Egypt are facing malnourishment and hunger as the winter sets in. This comes after a funding crisis forced the UN World Food Programme to suspend food vouchers for hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees. The World Food Programme has previously provided food for millions of Syrians both inside and outside of the country. The voucher programme allows refugees to buy food from local shops, and has injected around $800 million into the economies of the host countries. However, as reported by The Guardian, the WFP has been forced to halt the scheme after falling short of the $64 million needed to support Syrian refugees in December. Funding crises have already forced the UN to reduce funding of rations within Syria, where it provides for up to 4.25 million people. According to the UN, the WFP requires $412.6 million to support almost 3 million Syrian refugees based in neighbouring countries. Syrian refugees are poorly equipped for winter, lacking warm clothing, shelter, and adequate sanitation. António Guterres, the United Nations high commissioner for refugees, said in a statement: “[The food aid cuts] couldn’t come at a worse time.”

The UN has documented the appearance of a flesh eating maggot disease called Myiases near Damascus. The cases have been documented in Douma, a rebel held suburb that has been under government siege for more than a year, and whose residents have been subjected to terrible sanitation, and scarce food and medical supplies. The disease itself is indicative of the poor sanitary conditions within Syria, as well as threats to the water supply and what WHO spokesman Christian Lindmeier calls the poor “socioeconomic circumstances in besieged and hard-to-reach areas. “

ISIS militants have launched an attack on Kobane from Turkey for the first time. The group has been laying siege to the Kurdish town on Syria’s border with Turkey for months, though this is the first instance of attack from Turkey itself. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the attack began with a suicide attack by a bomber in an armoured vehicle on the border crossing between Kobane. Turkey has thus far supported Syrian rebels in the fight against the Assad government, and has also limited assistance to Kurdish fighters confronting ISIS, for fear of – as The Guardian calls it – “stoking ambitions for a Kurdish state.”

Both the US-led coalition and the Syrian regime have been intensely bombing Raqqa, the de facto capital of the self-proclaimed Caliphate of the Islamic State. The regime killed almost 100 people last week in airstrikes on Raqqa. On Sunday alone, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights documented 19 deaths. This includes seven women and children, when Syrian government warplanes hit the town of Jassim in the southern province of Deraa.

Emerging Conflicts: Afghanistan

Taliban attacks continue to wrack Afghanistan. Three compounds used by foreign workers have been attacked in the last two weeks in Kabul, despite the capital having the largest presence of security forces in the country. Although there are not exact figures, dozens of Afghans were killed in the recent attacks in Kabul. Three South Africans, two British embassy workers, and two American soldiers were also killed. The Kabul police chief unexpectedly resigned after the attacks.

Afghan soldiers and the Taliban also fought over the major military base Camp Bastion in Helmand Province. At least five Afghan soldiers and 26 insurgents were killed. Another 14 soldiers died in an attack on a smaller outpost.

The Taliban’s increase in attacks is believed to be in response to President Ashraf Ghani’s support for continued foreign military presence in the country. Although foreign forces are being phased out, more American troops are staying in the country than was originally expected. However, Afghan forces have suffered from poor equipment and organization in the face of increased Taliban attacks. Over 4,600 Afghan forces have been killed this year. Over 1,500 civilians were killed in the first six months of 2014, and it is currently on track to be the deadliest year of the war. There was further discouraging news for Afghanistan this week as its currency fell to its lowest point for 13 years and Oxfam issued a report finding that women have been excluded from peace negotiations with the Taliban.

On Wednesday, 22 people were killed and another 15 wounded when the Burmese Army shelled a rebel military academy in Laiza, a city in Burma’s northern Kachin State. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA), which runs the military academy and is headquartered in Laiza, has been fighting the Burmese Army since a ceasefire agreement broke down in June of 2011. The Burmese Army has apologized for the loss of life and claims their attack was “unintentional”. Instead, the Burmese Army said they wanted to “send a warning” to the KIA for a recent rebel attack on government troops building a road 70 km south of Laiza. To read more about the ongoing struggle between the Kachin and Burmese government, click here.

Central African Republic (CAR)

Sectarian violence has rapidly increased in a town in southeastern CAR, displacing thousands according to the UN. Attacks taking place on 17 and 18 November between communities in Zémio, a town near the Central African Republic’s border with South Sudan, mark the ‘first major inter-community incident in the region’ since the crisis began in 2012, according to the United Nations’ humanitarian relief office. On 20 November, fighting between members of the mostly Christian and animist Anti-balaka militia and UN peacekeeping forces left six dead and around ten injured in Cantonnier, a town near the Cameroon border. As fighting continues, faith leaders in CAR have called for an end to the sectarian violence. The Catholic archbishop of Bangui, a Muslim imam, and a Protestant minister announced an interfaith initiative ‘to foster dialogue and social cohesion’ on 10 November.

Reports emerged that the Séléka rebel alliance has taken control of a mine in the village of Ndassima, located in eastern CAR. While all legal trade in diamonds from CAR was stopped over 18 months ago by the Kimberley Process, an international agreement meant to prevent trade in conflict diamonds, trade in gold has continued largely uninhibited. As one miner put it, “Gold is always easier to sell. The control on diamonds is much stricter”. And while the Kimberley Process has stopped legal diamond trade with CAR, diamond smuggling continues.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

On Friday, November 7, a Congolese military court convicted Jerome Kakwavu, a general in the Congolese army (FARDC) and former rebel fighter, of war crimes. The court sentenced Kakwavu to 10 years in jail. The court found Kakwavu guilty of multiple counts of rape, murder, and torture, and of failing to take necessary measures to prevent human rights abuses by soldiers under his command. The court’s finding makes Kakwavu the highest-ranking Congolese military official to face a war crimes conviction since the start of the First Congo War in 1996.

Reports of an M23 comeback continue to circulate amongst the group’s military and civilian leaders in Rwanda and Uganda. In November 2013, the UN and the Congolese military defeated the March 23 movement. The rebel group occupied the North Kivu provincial capital of Goma for nearly two years prior to the defeat. Dissatisfied with the Congolese government’s refusal to provide amnesty, the M23 reportedly plans to again mount attacks in eastern Congo. The group’s weak current capacity, however, raises doubts about the validity of these claims.

On November 11, Justin Banaloki, military leader of the rebel group Front de Resistance Patriotique d’Ituri (FRPI) and known as “Cobra Mtata,” surrendered to Congolese authorities. Despite the surrender of Banaloki and former FRPI leader Colonel Adirodhu, the whereabouts of other high-ranking FRPI leaders remain speculative. The FRPI militia is based in Ituri province and remains one of the longest-standing armed groups in eastern DRC.

On Monday, November 10, UN peacekeepers opened fire on Congolese civilians in the town of Mbau, shooting and killing one man. The troops opened fire following a dispute over motorcycles blocking the passage of UN vehicles. The next day, activists staged a protest against the actions of the troops. One protester was killed and two others injured during the demonstrations. The dispute follows a period of heightened tension between the UN force in the DRC (MONUSCO) and Congolese civil society, largely resulting from MONUSCO’s inability to stop attacks by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a Ugandan rebel group.

Sudan ** trigger warning: sexual violence **

The Sudanese army has increased its presence on the South Sudan border. There have been reports of an increase in tanks, armored trucks, artillery, and other heavy weaponry. This comes a week after escalating violence along the border towns of Sudan and South Sudan where at least thirty-five people have been killed. Amid growing concerns of escalating hostilities, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir flew to Sudan earlier this month to ensure that the 2012 cooperation agreement would remain intact.

Additionally, the United Nations Security Council has urged Sudan to allow the joint UN-African Union peacekeeping force to investigate the recent rapes in the Darfur region.  This comes after Sudan closed the Darfur region to further investigation despite outcries from international human rights groups. After being asked to give access on 19 November, Sudan again denied the UN access to Darfur. This leaves the victims without any due process of law or access to counseling.

South Sudan

Last week in South Sudan, the UN demanded the release of one of its staff members who was abducted. The staff member worked for the World Food Programme and was last seen being escorted from an airport check-in queue by armed gunmen. The UN stressed that attacks on humanitarian workers jeopardize aid efforts. As World Food Programme country chief Joyce Luma said, “To bring urgently needed food assistance to hungry people affected by conflict, our staff are working in difficult and dangerous conditions, but we cannot also ask them to risk their lives to do so.”

Additionally, UN agencies have begun to relocate 15,000 South Sudanese refugees within Ethiopia. The refugees have been stranded for several months at a way station in western Ethiopia due to the unexpected flooding of the refugee camp they were meant to be moved to. They are now being moved in shifts to a camp roughly 300 kilometers away from the way station. More than 190,000 South Sudanese refugees have sought safety in Ethiopia since December 2013. Ethiopia is also Africa’s largest provider to refugees, currently housing 600,000 displaced persons.

Finally, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir is currently engaged in bilateral talks with Egypt. These talks are said to mostly focus on trade and investment in agriculture, health, power, electricity, and education. While South Sudan’s defence minister recently struck a military cooperation agreement with Egypt, it remains unclear whether or not the country will seek military assistance from Egypt.

Syria

The Syrian regime has this past week continued its escalation of airstrikes on rebel held areas. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the Syrian air force in the last month launched about 1,592 strikes across Syria, killing at least 396. The observatory writes that the attacks, coming in the form of air raids and barrel bombs, have injured at least 1500 civilians, and “struck areas in the Hama, Deraa, Idlib, Aleppo and Quneitra provinces as well as the Damascus countryside.”

Aleppo also suffered further aerial bombardment earlier this week, with the AP reporting that Syrian aircraft launched crude explosives on the Qabr al-Inglizi neighbourhood that resulted in the deaths of 14 people. Children were among the dead. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which relies on on-the-ground activists for key information, said the death toll could still rise, as people still buried under rubble remained unaccounted for. The bombs reportedly struck an ambulance and several microbuses. Despite condemnation from human rights groups and the U.N. Security Council resolution banning their indiscriminate use, the Syrian government has continuously used barrel bombs in densely populated civilian areas throughout the course of the civil war. This tactic is condemned as the bombs are wildly inaccurate, and have left thousands of civilians dead.

Syrian Kurds have made new gains in the fight against ISIS in Kobane, according to the AFP. Hours after a series of airstrikes by the US-led coalition on ISIS positions in central Kobane, Syrian Kurds in the form of The Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) staged a “special operation” in which they captured six buildings used by ISIS. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that the Kurds “captured a large amount of weapons and ammunition, including RPG (rocket-propelled grenade) rounds, light weapons, sniper guns and thousands of heavy machinegun rounds.” Kobane has become a symbol of resistance to ISIS, who have instituted radical interpretations of Islamic law in the areas they have captured. However, Syrian Kurdish troops have been fighting alongside Iraqi Peshmerga forces and Syrian rebels that have defensively bolstered the town’s defences, backed by US-led strikes on ISIS positions. It is estimated that ISIS now controls 20 percent of the town, down from the high of 50.

Emerging Conflicts: Israel-Palestine

Tensions are rising quickly in Jerusalem after attacks and deaths on both sides.  While anger remained from this summer’s violence, controversy has erupted over al-Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock.  The sites are holy to both Jews and Muslims and have traditionally been controlled by the Palestinians.  Jews have been allowed to visit the sites but not to pray there, and about a month ago the Israeli government shut the sites to all visitors.  After suggestions that conservative Jews be allowed to pray at the sites, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas accused Israel of igniting a “religious war”.

There have been a number of incidents in the last month.  About 12 Palestinians have been killed, including a protester shot by Israeli forces in the occupied West Bank.  Five Israelis and a foreign visitor have been killed in several attacks, including a knife attack and attacks from Palestinians driving cars. The attacks seem to be directed by individuals, rather than a coordinated by any specific group. On Monday, 17 November, Palestinian bus driver Yusuf Hassan al-Ramouni was found hanged.  Israeli authorities deemed his death a suicide but many Palestinians, including his family, believe he was attacked by Israelis, citing the bruises found on his body.

On Tuesday, 18 November two Palestinian men entered a Jerusalem synagogue and killed five people with guns and a meat cleaver before being shot and killed by police. The Palestinians are believed to have been motivated by the controversy over Jerusalem’s religious sites. Four of the killed were rabbis while one was a police officer. Mahmoud Abbas condemned the killings while Hamas praised them. Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu promised a strong response. After the attack, Israel approved the construction of 78 new settlement homes, which are widely considered illegal under international law.  Israel also fired tear gas at protesters in East Jerusalem and demolished the family homes of the two attackers.   Still, this violence does not rival that of this summer.  2,104 Gazans were killed, including 1,462 civilians according to the UN.  66 Israeli soldiers and 7 civilians were killed.

Burma

US President Barack Obama made his second official visit to Burma last week to attend the 25th annual Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) regional summit help for the first time in Burma’s capital, Naypyidaw. There, Obama praised Burma’s President Thein Sein’s “real” efforts to democratize the country. However, many people, including opposition leader and Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, have expressed concern over the United States’ positive perception of very limited reforms in the former military dictatorship. According to the White House, the United States has provided over $375 million to Burma since relieving economic sanctions in 2012 in targeting five key areas: national reconciliation, democratic institutions, economic development, health, resilient communities, and regional cooperation.

While in the country, both Obama and UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon criticized the Burmese government’s treatment of the Rohingya. The Burmese government refuses to acknowledge the existence of the Rohingya and instead refers to them as illegal Bengali migrants. Moreover, the Burmese government has also proposed sending Rohingya to detention camps if they refuse to officially identify themselves as Bengali. To read more about the Rohingya and the significance of official US and UN recognition, click here.

Finally, Burma and China signed a bilateral trade agreement on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit which aimed to increase rice exports from northeastern Burma to southwestern China.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

The links between the conflict-minerals trade and profits for militia groups in eastern DRC are well-documented. However, in the face of reduced profits due in part to conflict-free mineral certification mechanisms, rebel militias in the Congo are increasingly turning to wildlife trafficking as a source of revenue. The Okapi Forest Reserve reports a 40% reduction in its elephant population from 2009-2014. In late October, the UN released an urgent appeal for resources to combat elephant poaching by militia groups in Garamba national park. During the past 3 years, rebel militias murdered 30 park rangers in Virunga national park alone. Rebel militias also reportedly attempt to undercut the local eco-tourism industry by offering wildlife tours at reduced rates, using revenue to continue the purchase of weapons.

In late October, military leaders ousted Blaise Compaoré, President of Burkina Faso, from power. Coming after several years of democratic upheaval in many parts of North Africa and the Middle East, the coup raises questions about the durability of autocratic rule in sub-Saharan Africa. In an interview with Voice of America, Congolese information minister Lambert Mende rejects the idea that Congolese President Joseph Kabila will be subject to the same fate if he chooses to run for a third term in 2016. Mende said, “Nobody has heard President Kabila saying that he’s going to change the constitution. As a democratic country, we are having an intellectual and political debate about the changing or not changing the constitution…Burkina is Burkina and Congo is Congo.”

Members of the Congolese police force (PNC) arrested twenty protesters on 1 November. The protesters took to the streets outside the UN headquarters in Kinshasa to demand a national dialogue aimed at ending two decades of violence in eastern Congo. Activists also expressed frustration at the prospect of a proposed amendment to the Congolese constitution that would permit President Kabila to run for a third term. All detainees have since been released.

In the wake of a series of Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) attacks on civilian communities in the city of Beni, located in the Congo’s eastern North Kivu province, the UN Stabilization Mission in the DR Congo (MONUSCO) announced last week that the mission had arrested 200 individuals suspected of participation in the assaults. The mission also reported seizures of bombs, radios, weapons, and other military equipment from the ADF. Between 2 October and 17 October, ADF forces murdered nearly 120 civilians in North Kivu. Congolese Defense Minister Alexandre Luba Ntambo spoke to civilians in the province on 5 November, urging community members not to form self-defense militias against the ADF. Ntambo said that reactionary defense militias would only “further complicate the already fragile situation” in Beni.

Two teams of Congolese military (FARDC) personnel received a 10-day training from the UN on detecting and disposing of arms caches. FARDC plans to launch an operation entitled “Weapons Free Masisi” this month to collect weapons from illegal armed groups operating in Masisi territory, including the M-23, Alliance of Patriots of Free and Sovereign Congo (APCLS) and local Mayi-Mayi militia groups.

Sudan

After much delay, peace talks between government forces and rebel groups have resumed in Sudan. The chief of the African Union stated that he was hopeful that negotiations would be finalized between rebels and the government very soon. Fighting has broken out many times in the southern part of the country near the South Sudanese border. Negotiations on the issues in Darfur have been scheduled for later this month. The conflicts in the southern part of the country have already displaced tens of thousands of Sudanese.

Reports emerged on Wednesday of a Sudanese attack on South Sudan’s Upper Nile State. The strike follows a similar one two weeks earlier in which at least 35 people were killed. The newest raid killed seven and displaced many more. The South Sudanese army believes that the Sudanese government is behind the latest attack because they used warplanes, which the South Sudanese rebels do not have access to.

Finally, 1.2 million Sudanese have been registered to vote for Sudan’s 2015 elections. Sudan’s National Election Commission (NEC) has reported that 1.2 million new voters have been registered for the 2015 Sudanese election cycle. However, opposition parties are refusing to participate in the elections, calling instead for a transitional government and a national conference to resolve the long-standing conflicts in the South Kordofan and Darfur regions. The NEC, however, has rejected any postponement of the electoral process, claiming that delaying elections would cause a “constitutional vacuum”.

South Sudan

Last week in South Sudan, several polio cases were confirmed by the World Health Organization. The WHO stated that these cases are most likely because of the lack of vaccination programs in South Sudan. The organization stated that it is difficult to maintain high rates of vaccinations in conflict zones, and that it is extremely dangerous to have a few cases because they can spread very quickly.

Additionally, there have been reports that the conflict has now hit three different states in South Sudan. Both the rebels and the government have blamed each other for the continued fighting as it continues to spread to more and more regions. As the fighting escalates, the amount of killed and displaced Sudanese continues to rise.

The Guardian reports that the upcoming generation of South Sudanese boys are eager to fight in the civil war. Many young men have expressed their hope that they would soon be old enough to fight alongside the rebels or the government.

Syria

The Free Syrian Army (FSA) has rejected the possibility of a UN-mandated Aleppo truce with the Assad regime. According to Al Jazeera, the FSA’s rejection of the plan to suspend fighting in Syria’s second largest city, and its most populous prior to the civil war, stems from concerns that such a plan will only help the Assad regime. Zaher al-Saket, FSA military commander in Aleppo, explained their logic: “We [the Free Syrian Army] learned not to trust the Assad regime because they are cunning and only want to buy time. We saw what happened in Homs and we will never accept the same scenario in Aleppo.” The Syrian government had allegedly responded differently towards overtures regarding an Aleppo truce, with Staffan de Mistura, UN special envoy to Syria, saying on Tuesday the government had responded with “constructive interest” to the UN proposal. However, activists claimed that Assad’s forces resumed launching barrel bombs on Aleppo’s al-Marjeh neighbourhood just a day later.

Syrian authorities have reportedly detained Louday Hussein, leader of Building the Syrian State party and longtime opposition activist, who has been detained twice before, and this time faces a number of what his party calls a number of “ready made charges”, including “weakening national sentiment and weakening the morale of the nation.” The Syrian Network for Human Rights estimates that up to 85,000 people are currently being held by the Syrian regime without any just cause. In captivity, prisoners face numerous human rights abuses, including torture and the continual threat of death. The Assad regime’s use of arbitrary and inhumane imprisonment tactics is well noted, and a UN panel last year accused the Assad regime of committing a crime against humanity by making people “systematically vanish.”

Emerging Conflicts: Nigeria

Violence has continued to wrack Nigeria, with radical Islamist group Boko Haram the main instigator. On 10 November, a suicide attack outside a school killed at least 48 people and wounded at least 79. Students were gathered for an assembly at a government boarding school in Potiskum when an attacker, disguised as a student, launched a suicide bombing. How many of the dead were students has not yet been determined. Although Boko Haram is widely suspected, they have not claimed responsibility for the attack. This follows an attack on 3 November in Potiskum when a suicide bomber blew himself up in a crowd of Shi’ite Muslims at a religious ceremony. The bombing killed 15 people and afterwards Nigerian soldiers killed six people in their response to the attack.

On 12 November, a female suicide bomber blew herself up at a college in Kontagora. At least three people were killed. Although Kontagora is far from the northeastern part of the country where Boko Haram usually operates, it is still suspected to be the perpetrator.

The government has suffered a number of embarrassing defeats in its fight against Boko Haram.  It announced a ceasefire with Boko Haram on 17 October. This would have ended fighting and led to the release of over 200 girls kidnapped earlier this year. However, there were a number of Boko Haram attacks in the days following the announcement. Nigerian officials continued to maintain that there was a ceasefire, but two weeks after the announcement of the ceasefire Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau announced that there had been no ceasefire and the girls would not be released. Then, on 14 November, Boko Haram took control of the town of Chibok, where they kidnapped the girls in April. The US has, however, refused to sell arms to the Nigerian military because of its history of human rights abuses.  Still, there was some good news for the military as they re-took the town of Mubi from Boko Haram.