Annually, the Genocide Intervention Network and the STAND E-team re-evaluate current conflicts of concern and other spots of violence around the world to determine which should remain or be instated as priorities. We read the annual Conflict Barometer report published by the Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research. We then code conflicts according to type and scale of violence, and assess whether they ought to be on our list of areas of concern. Those that don’t make the list but are still conflict hot spots will be monitored regularly though less in depth. Currently, GI-Net is finalizing this process, and will soon release the list of areas of concern for 2010. Keep an eye out for these developments!

Trivia: What were STAND’s Areas of Concern for 2009?

Discussion: When and under what conditions do we decide to remove a conflict from the list?

Conflict Selection criteria:
 

• Systematic, deliberate targeting of civilians for killing, severe torture, or rape on a massive scale
• Degrees of Harm and capability:
  • Harm to combatants/political leadership
  • Some impact on civilians, political opponents, but largely minimizes civilian casualties
  • Indifference to impact on large civilian population
  • Tactical killing of civilians
  • Tactically mobilizing essentialist motives of some
  • Essentialist motives of primary killers
• Scale:
  • Very Small
    • under 100 civilian fatalities, under 1,000 displaced
  • Small
    • 100-500 civilian fatalities, 1,000-10,000 displaced
  • Moderate
    • 150-250 civilian fatalities, 10,000-50,000 displaced
  • Large
    • 250-1,000 civilian fatalities, 50,000-100,000 displaced
  • Very Large
    • 1,000+ civilian fatalities, 100,000+ displaced
• Learn more here.

Email education@standnow.org to receive weekly trivia, a discussion guide, and news briefs.

Trivia: possible repercussions of MONUC leaving Congo

1. MONUC has spent the last about three years trying to train DRC’s army FARDC in both field tactics and cohesive action. If MONUC leaves next year, there is a chance that FARDC may decline back into preying on civilians, as they have recently been accused of doing.
2. There is a chance that since President Joseph Kabila himself asked MONUC to leave, he has a plan in mind. He might be feeling that his military is ready to take care of its country, and has drawn an operation schedule.
3. However, before this plan comes to fruition, rebels and FARDC members alike might jump to use the opportunity of a power vacuum to assault civilians. Or worse, there might be no such plan

Discussion:

      “While the rebels are killing us, MONUC takes notes and makes reports. What good is that?” Congolese citizen, Kisangani. November 2002, Refugees International

      Started in 1999 and initially called the Joint Military Commission, MONUC was formed to monitor compliance with the 1999 Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement. Like many UN operations, this one’s mandate has never been and will never be to forcibly bring peace to DRC. It is an operation meant to enforce peace and use military force only in self protection and very limited civilian protection. This would explain the constant complaints that MONUC is not doing enough to help the civilians. For a conflict where people are being murdered and raped by the thousands, of what use is a force that simply observes and takes notes?

In 2002 thousands of Congolese civilians in Kisangani were murdered by the Rwanda backed RCD-Goma, under the nose of a 1200 men strong MONUC force; protection of civilians from this military attack was apparently not only outside MONUC’s mandate but also beyond their capabilities. When it comes to civilians, MONUC’s biggest disappointment so far has been the false hope that they would protect innocent Congolese from military attacks. Most recently, they embarked on Kimia II (January 2009) in which they partnered with FARDC to assault the FDLR, an operation that turned counterproductive when the FDLR renewed violence and the FARDC continued to prey on the very civilians it is supposed to be protecting. By September 2009, 800,000 more people had fled.

If MONUC leaves, there is possibility of escalated violence not because they used to protect the people but because of a restraint vacuum:; the attackers who might have feared MONUC counter attacks will now feel free to attack. Secondly, MONUC’s leaving will be a huge disappointment to not only local people but the global citizens who look to UN missions to protect civilians and resolve conflict, as opposed to occupying conflict zones, making minimal progress, taking risky steps like Kimia II and then suddenly withdrawing and leaving civilians uncertain about their future. Many East Congolese civilians are in danger, no doubt. The way things are going, their lives and security will be at the mercy of the rebels or in the hands of the government, which we hope will step up to the task. Should MONUC actually stay or attempt a future return, it is advisable that they give more weight to civilian protection in their mandate, support only pacifist operations of FARDC and partner more with civilians.

      Ihab says that he remembers a time in Iraq when everything was peaceful, when no one was afraid to walk down the streets of Baghdad. He says that when he was a child and even up until the invasion, no one cared about whether their neighbors were Muslims or Christians. Everyone lived in peace. Now, no one can walk down the street without risking his or her life. Everyone is afraid because everyone is a target. “Right now,” he says, “We don’t want food; we just want peace.”

      Everything started for Ihab Basri in 2007, after some unknown men attempted to kidnap him on his way to his university. He was in the first few stages of medical school there in Baghdad. Ihab does not know why he was the target; although, he speculates that it might be because he is Christian. After this traumatic event, his family decided to move out of Baghdad to Northern Iraq. Life was very difficult there: no one accepted them because they were Arab, the cost of living was high, and there was no work for them. In July 2007, they escaped to Syria as refugees, where they were still not allowed to work. Ihab says that they had to renew their residency every two months, and they were in constant danger of being expelled from Syria. Ihab was forbidden from continuing his studies at any of the Syrian universities, even if his family had had the money to pay the steep university fees.

      That’s where the Iraqi Student Project came in. They helped him improve his English, guided him through the college application process, and sent him to the United States to finish his studies. He says, “They have been here with me every step of the way. They are like my family.” They continue to help him with life in the United States; he even has an internship this summer at a New York hospital through them. All they ask of him is that he “remember them and make the most of his opportunities to help his fellow Iraqis.” This, he says, “I can do.”

      Even now that he is at Dartmouth College, life is still hard for him. He is not allowed to leave the United States until he has finished his degree. His family, including his two younger sisters (ages 9 and 19), is still in a refugee camp in Syria, unable to work or provide food for themselves. His parents have applied for immigration to Canada; although, that process often takes up to five years.

      But Ihab is hopeful and adamant that he will make the most of his time here in the United States. Ihab is currently attempting to set up a direct liaison between Dartmouth and Iraqi refugee students who have had their studies interrupted by the war. He believes that the Iraqi students are the future of Iraq; they will be needed when peace prevails once again in Iraq. Until then, he suggests that students across the United States make people aware that the violence has not stopped in Iraq and that millions of innocent citizens are suffering everyday because of it.

Weekly News Brief, April 16 to 23, 2010, compiled by Josh Kennedy at GI-Net and the STAND E-team. To receive news briefs, along with trivia and a discussion guide, email education@standnow.org.

• The United States, United Kingdom and Norway issued a statement commending the Sudanese people “for their engagement in a complex and lengthy polling process, and their increased civic participation over recent months.” However, they also acknowledged that these elections were neither free nor fair and did not meet international standards.
• Vote counting for Sudan’s elections started on April 16^th. Although the process should take several days, current President Omar al-Bashir is expected to win another five years in office. The Sudanese reports that the election results will be released on Sunday.
• Several opposition groups in South Sudan accused the SPLA and the SPLM of tampering with ballots and intimidation during last week’s elections and this week’s ballot counting.
• Fifty people were killed in fighting between the Rizeigat and Al-Saada tribes that broke out north of Nyala on Tuesday. The fighting was reportedly due to cattle rustling.
• JEM warned of an imminent attack by SAF troops on their positions in the Jebel Moon area of West Darfur.
• The four kidnapped UNAMID peacekeepers will reportedly be released after the results of last week’s elections are announced.
• The president of Chad warned South Sudan against independence after the January 2011 referendum. He says that their independence will be “a disaster for Africa.”

• Three bombs killed 10 and injured 170 at the Burmese New Year water festival in Rangoon on Thursday.  Army and police sources say that Sr.-Gen. Nay Shwe Thway Aung, Than Shwe’s grandson, was the target of the attacks, while a state newspaper blamed the attacks on exiled Burmese opposition groups utilizing terrorist tactics.
• US senator Judd Gregg has introduced a resolution calling on US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to assess whether the Obama administration policy of engagement with the Burmese military junta has been effective in furthering US interests, asking the administration to strengthen sanctions and engage with regional governments and multilateral organizations to push for the establishment of democratic rule in Burma.
• Wa leadership recently met to discuss the Border Guard Force and the future of the United Wa State Army and decided once again to reject the BGF plan, following previous, unsuccessful attempts by the Wa leadership to negotiate with the SPDC.
• The New Mon State Party and the Kachin Independence Organization also declined the offer to integrate into the government’s border guard force.
• Kachin Independence Organisation troops are providing military training to people from the ethnic minority after the group refused to join the Burma Army’s Border Guard Force, and New Mon State Party leaders and soldiers are making preparations to travel to jungle bases in anticipation of an outbreak in hostilities between the Mon cease-fire group and the Burmese army.

• Mai Mai militiamen abducted 21 civilians returning from their fields in the Uvira area of South Kivu
• LRA attacks continue near the town of Niangara, Orientale province, killing three people and maiming one other.
• The African Association for the Defense of Human Rights reported that the FARDC executed 49 civilians in the town of Mbandaka earlier this month.

• NATO admitted its troops shot and killed four civilians when they opened fire on an approaching car. Three of the victims were teens and the other was a young police officer.
• The United States Pentagon has more than doubled the number of Special Forces operating in Afghanistan.
• More than 20 Taliban militants were killed last Sunday in a clean-up operation by NATO forces in Baghlan.
• Militants shot Kandahar’s deputy mayor as he prayed inside a mosque Monday night, killing him. The killing was one of many against government officials by the Taliban seeking to undermine regional stability.
• The Afghan government has postponed negotiations with Taliban officials until after President Karzai visits Washington in May.

• Security forces captured a top al Qaeda leader last Sunday, a move that was expected to be a major blow to the organization. 
• A series of 12 bombs hit the Sadr City area of Baghdad killing at least 39 people on Friday. It is unclear what group was responsible for the bombings.

• The Pakistani military admitted that as many as 40 civilians may have been killed in an airstrike two Saturdays ago, an apology that contradicted earlier denials of civilian casualties. Local officials say those killed belonged to a pro-government tribe who had helped repel Taliban influence in the area.
• Eight people were killed when a suicide bomber attacked an emergency room filled with Shiite mourners last Friday.
• Two suicide bombers attacked refugees waiting for aid supplies in Kohat last Saturday, killing 41. A car bomb targeting a police station in the same region Sunday killed seven people and injured another 26.
• Another bomb detonated in a crowded marketplace in Peshawar on Tuesday killed 18 and injured 34 people.
• A recent spate of killings of anti-Taliban politicians in Swat Valley has raised concerns that the Taliban may be regrouping there. Meanwhile, reports indicate Taliban and al-Qaeda militants have relocated to North Waziristan after government offensives in South Waziristan.

• Al-Shabaab banned school bells in the southern town of Jowhar last week, saying they conflicted with Islam. Meanwhile, the Somali government threatened to close all radio stations that bowed down to Hizbul Islam’s threats and discontinued their broadcasts. Several radio stations defied the government’s wishes and shut down.
• Heavy fighting between government and AMISOM forces and rebel groups continued in Mogadishu through the week, with 20 people dying Sunday by bombs and shelling from both sides. Five beheaded bodies were also found in the streets of Mogadishu on Wednesday, with another 11 dead.
• The Somali government has asked the WFP to release food within its storages to feed hundreds of Somali IDPs in need of food.
• Both al-Shabaab and Ahlu Sunna Waljama’a claimed victory over their fighting in Somalia’s central region. 
• Human Rights Watch released a new report on Somalia stating that all sides in the conflict are complicit in the commission of human rights violations against civilians including the indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas

Around the World

Northern Ireland

• The Continuity IRA claimed responsibility for a bombing outside of a police station in Northern Ireland that injured two people.

• An opposition activist was allegedly beaten to death at the hands of ruling party members. This is the second death in advance of this year’s Ethiopian national elections.

• Several grenades exploded in central Bangkok during anti-government protests, injuring almost 90 people. The protests are the latest round of tension between political parties in Thailand and there are fears that violent outbreaks could increase.